GDT: Free Agency 2020, Part III - Hockey is back! Regular season to begin January 13th 2021

violaswallet

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Apr 8, 2019
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Even if we do lose a top 9 forward, the competition is only gonna be harder in 21-22 camp. Lundell will be there I can only assume, Denisenko likely cements himself as a full time.nhler, Tippett is most likely already a full time nhler, Luostarinen will have a real good shot to make the team, Lammikko might be in the mix again, Lomberg will still be under contract. Saarela is really hurting his future with the Panthers.
I was going to disagree but you might be right: there isn’t space for him anymore

Saarela is a wing in our organization. Let’s say Connolly was taken. That leaves Huby/Duclair (RFA)/Horny/Deni/Tippett/Vatrano as completion with Barkov/Lundell/Verh as centers.
Most likely some of the guys will not prosper so that’s his chance
 

Prominence Problem

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If the defensive play is better in front of him, Bob will be much better this season. If he can trust the players in front of him he can settle down and just focus on the puck. Much of Bob’s struggles, imo, stemmed from him having one eye on the puck and the other on the guy standing all alone waiting for the pass. He was trying to be Superman, but often would get caught leaning and beat, or ended up flopping around trying to recover, as Reimer often did the previous year
At one point last year I was keeping track of all the goals allowed High Blocker on Bob. It got to be a lot.

He gets that under control, he should definitely be better this year.
 

Pigge

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Feb 28, 2002
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I was going to disagree but you might be right: there isn’t space for him anymore

Saarela is a wing in our organization. Let’s say Connolly was taken. That leaves Huby/Duclair (RFA)/Horny/Deni/Tippett/Vatrano as completion with Barkov/Lundell/Verh as centers.
Most likely some of the guys will not prosper so that’s his chance
There's a decent chance Saarela joins after Lukko's season ends though, right? There's always some hole to fill in May.
 

batting1k

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Mar 3, 2013
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If deni out in the work and has taken huge steps from last year maybe he can make it. But for how much he struggled last year in a men’s league it would be shocking

Actually the fact that he got as many games as he did and put up as many points as he did for 2 straight years at 18 and 19 in the best league outside NA is pretty good and I think says a lot.

KHL is a tough league and isn’t necessarily a place focused on the development of young guys.

The KHL website shows he’s getting anywhere from 8-12 minutes per night so honestly I wouldn’t expect him to put up many more points than he did. His > 1 ppg in back to back world juniors shows he’s able to compete very well with his peers at least if not better.

Now I’m not saying any of this guarantees he will be good or will be able to step in this year. Honestly if it were a normal year I’d like him to at least start the season in the AHL, but there’s a lot of unknowns there this year and it may be good for him to be in the NHL environment and potentially get some game action.
 

violaswallet

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Actually the fact that he got as many games as he did and put up as many points as he did for 2 straight years at 18 and 19 in the best league outside NA is pretty good and I think says a lot.

KHL is a tough league and isn’t necessarily a place focused on the development of young guys.

The KHL website shows he’s getting anywhere from 8-12 minutes per night so honestly I wouldn’t expect him to put up many more points than he did. His > 1 ppg in back to back world juniors shows he’s able to compete very well with his peers at least if not better.

Now I’m not saying any of this guarantees he will be good or will be able to step in this year. Honestly if it were a normal year I’d like him to at least start the season in the AHL, but there’s a lot of unknowns there this year and it may be good for him to be in the NHL environment and potentially get some game action.
To add on: I think this is why we saw the betting markets where Deni was fourth fo the Calder.

The KHL is a weird league to project to NHL: I haven’t crunched all the numbers but Deni’s per 60 numbers are the best in his age group except for Marchenko.

I think he gets a big boost from the WJC due to scoring and his natural aggression: he showed a lot of fire

Edit: we sometimes forget how great Deni was in the world juniors. He is 5th in points per game for Russian players who played at least 2 world juniors, he has the most career points for those who only played 2 world juniors. The guys with more points per game: Ovrchkin, Malkin, Kutsenov and Filatov. If we were the Leafs, this guy would be spammed
 
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SoupyFIN

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It must kind of suck for him to be honest: he was just about to make the jump in March and then the league shut down. That game against St. Louis must have been a big confidence builder then boom.

I think the big thing is this: if Florida loses a top 9 forward in the draft then he has a good chance of returning. If not I’m not sure
He would've still had to fight for a spot without covid and take a 2-way contract, the sample size would've been like 20-ish games.

Even if we do lose a top 9 forward, the competition is only gonna be harder in 21-22 camp. Lundell will be there I can only assume, Denisenko likely cements himself as a full time.nhler, Tippett is most likely already a full time nhler, Luostarinen will have a real good shot to make the team, Lammikko might be in the mix again, Lomberg will still be under contract. Saarela is really hurting his future with the Panthers.
Many of those players will be fighting between each other and not directly Saarela. Lundell, Lammikko and Luostarinen are all natural centers.

There's also a lot of uncertainty with our wingers. Will we re-sign Duclair, or does he price himself out? Hinostroza I think will chase a bigger role and money if he plays well enough. Vatrano is in a similar situation (with one extra year under contract), do we trade him before Seattle gets a chance? How about Connolly, do we pay Seattle to take him?

As for the bolded, I could see Zito trading Saarela's rights if the price is right. He's a nice piece to have, but not the type where you'd scream for Zito's head on a pole if he were to be traded.
 
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violaswallet

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He would've still had to fight for a spot without covid and take a 2-way contract, the sample size would've been like 20-ish games.

Many of those players will be fighting between each other and not directly Saarela. Lundell, Lammikko and Luostarinen are all natural centers.

There's also a lot of uncertainty with our wingers. Will we re-sign Duclair, or does he price himself out? Hinostroza I think will chase a bigger role and money if he plays well enough. Vatrano is in a similar situation (with one extra year under contract), do we trade him before Seattle gets a chance? How about Connolly, do we pay Seattle to take him?

As for the bolded, I could see Zito trading Saarela's rights if the price is right. He's a nice piece to have, but not the type where you'd scream for Zito's head on a pole if he were to be traded.
Just a quick note: Duclair is a RFA next year so he will likely be back. His qualifying offer will be less than 2M!
 
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violaswallet

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Yeah, but he can take it to arbitration and get like 5M+, assuming he has a good season alongside HB.
Sure but that’s unlikely: there hasn’t been an award for more than 5M since Weber and the highest in the past five years has been 3.5M to Bertuzzi. Given that the comparable include this season I’m less worried but I guess it’s a leverage point!
 
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vendetta

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Mar 22, 2011
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Actually the fact that he got as many games as he did and put up as many points as he did for 2 straight years at 18 and 19 in the best league outside NA is pretty good and I think says a lot.

KHL is a tough league and isn’t necessarily a place focused on the development of young guys.

The KHL website shows he’s getting anywhere from 8-12 minutes per night so honestly I wouldn’t expect him to put up many more points than he did. His > 1 ppg in back to back world juniors shows he’s able to compete very well with his peers at least if not better.

Now I’m not saying any of this guarantees he will be good or will be able to step in this year. Honestly if it were a normal year I’d like him to at least start the season in the AHL, but there’s a lot of unknowns there this year and it may be good for him to be in the NHL environment and potentially get some game action.
This is one of my main concerns. Only playing 8-12 mins a night isn’t great for development. And I take no stock in world juniors for nhl readiness outside of raw tools. Nhl won’t be his peers. They will be grown ass professional men. His raw skillset is good enough no doubt. I have a hard time seeing translating to nhl successfully this early without a year of pro and solid minutes in North America
 

scholl

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Jun 26, 2019
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NHL minimum is 3-5 times more than he will make in Finland
who said it was about the money? He didn't want to wait anymore. Salaries have been cut in Finland because of the coronavirus but at least he is part of the team and knows where he plays this season. Borgström is staying here because he isn't happy with his role in Fla. and the same might apply to Saarela. Of course the COVID-situation is complicated in North America and players might rethink whether they want to play there at all now but another reason might be that in discussions there was no sign that the player is going to get a fair chance. If he gets a 2-way-contract, then he could be sent to the AHL like an empty beer bottle and I don't think that players are interested in that kind of roles. Puljujärvi and Lammikko got NHL-contracts even after returning to Finland for a season. So it's very understandable that a player thinks especially now in this uncertain situation, that he can return to the NHL later.
 
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Dread Clawz

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Many of those players will be fighting between each other and not directly Saarela. Lundell, Lammikko and Luostarinen are all natural centers.

There's also a lot of uncertainty with our wingers. Will we re-sign Duclair, or does he price himself out? Hinostroza I think will chase a bigger role and money if he plays well enough. Vatrano is in a similar situation (with one extra year under contract), do we trade him before Seattle gets a chance? How about Connolly, do we pay Seattle to take him?

As for the bolded, I could see Zito trading Saarela's rights if the price is right. He's a nice piece to have, but not the type where you'd scream for Zito's head on a pole if he were to be traded.

There will be some centers shifting to wing in the coming years as roster spots for forwards become more competitive. Yeah, Hinostroza may leave, or Duclair, etc. but we dont know that for sure. I assume we will keep some of the free agents we signed this offseason. And if there is a big hole in scoring created by departures, Zito will presumably fill it by other ufa's.

I agree Saarela isn't a necessary piece, but that's kinda what I'm saying, he'd be better served to establish himself with the Panthers now before some of these prospects start coming up. Not that I'd cry if he was traded, but he would add some nice depth scoring for the time being, and you can never have enough depth.
 

SoupyFIN

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who said it was about the money? He didn't want to wait anymore. Salaries have been cut in Finland because of the coronavirus but at least he is part of the team and knows where he plays this season. Borgström is staying here because he isn't happy with his role in Fla. and the same might apply to Saarela. Of course the COVID-situation is complicated in North America and players might rethink whether they want to play there at all now but another reason might be that in discussions there was no sign that the player is going to get a fair chance. If he gets a 2-way-contract, then he could be sent to the AHL like an empty beer bottle and I don't think that players are interested in that kind of roles. Puljujärvi and Lammikko got NHL-contracts even after returning to Finland for a season. So it's very understandable that a player thinks especially now in this uncertain situation, that he can return to the NHL later.
Tbh this is probably just as mutual from Florida's side. You don't want a player around who's shown zero development at the NHL level the past 2 years and pouted for being sent to the AHL due to that very lack of performance. I've been saying since he signed with HIFK that he should stay there the whole season.

Puljujärvi and Lammikko aren't comparable to Borg and Saarela IMO. Puljujärvi was a top pick for a reason, and obviously someone with that status is going to get the benefit of the doubt to prove himself. Lammikko would've been an NHLer had he stayed, but he didn't want to be a 4C for the rest of his NHL career. Meanwhile Borg has proven to be a good AHL player and while Saarela's cup of coffee towards the end of the season looked promising, it's still just 9 games (+ 1 playoff game). It's not good for business if every GM starts throwing 1-way contracts like candy, *cough cough* Leafs.

edit: Lammikko's contract is also 2-way, just remembered and checked.
 

Prominence Problem

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Saarela is also playing for a team that is right now the number one candidate to win the league. So if they manage to win the championships, it will be a confidence boost. Most players never win anything in any league.
that last sentence is so true. Most players seize the opportunity to have a chance of a winning team, it is so rare.
 

Bure1096

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With the checkers not playing this year. I am ok with him staying in Finland. Borg can just plain stay there.
 

zeroG

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Empirically Columbus has a problem: you’re right it might be Keka and not Zito although we don’t have the data: I don’t think Duclair or Wennberg are great examples because neither had much leverage; I’d say Jones signs in two years, it would strengthen your argument l.

you are correct that we cannot causally say with Hoffman/Dadonov; but we cannot also not say there weren’t acrimonious negotiations :) We need to see talent with leverage choosing to stay so Barky/Huby will be the tests

or, it could just be that it's columbus, OH.
 

RogerRoger

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Jul 23, 2013
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I agree Saarela isn't a necessary piece, but that's kinda what I'm saying, he'd be better served to establish himself with the Panthers now before some of these prospects start coming up. Not that I'd cry if he was traded, but he would add some nice depth scoring for the time being, and you can never have enough depth.
Would he even get a chance to establish himself? Last season the Panthers gave tons of games to players who weren't performing well. Q played Pysyk 58 games, Sceviour 69, Toninato 46, Hawriluk 15 ... that quartet is thrash. I can easily see Q playing Lamm and Lomberg even if they produce nothing because they play like bottom 6ers or something.
 

batting1k

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Would he even get a chance to establish himself? Last season the Panthers gave tons of games to players who weren't performing well. Q played Pysyk 58 games, Sceviour 69, Toninato 46, Hawriluk 15 ... that quartet is thrash. I can easily see Q playing Lamm and Lomberg even if they produce nothing because they play like bottom 6ers or something.

to be fair, Q had no choice but to play these guys last year. What other options did he have?
 

batting1k

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Tbh this is probably just as mutual from Florida's side. You don't want a player around who's shown zero development at the NHL level the past 2 years and pouted for being sent to the AHL due to that very lack of performance. I've been saying since he signed with HIFK that he should stay there the whole season.

Puljujärvi and Lammikko aren't comparable to Borg and Saarela IMO. Puljujärvi was a top pick for a reason, and obviously someone with that status is going to get the benefit of the doubt to prove himself. Lammikko would've been an NHLer had he stayed, but he didn't want to be a 4C for the rest of his NHL career. Meanwhile Borg has proven to be a good AHL player and while Saarela's cup of coffee towards the end of the season looked promising, it's still just 9 games (+ 1 playoff game). It's not good for business if every GM starts throwing 1-way contracts like candy, *cough cough* Leafs.

edit: Lammikko's contract is also 2-way, just remembered and checked.

Erik Gudbranson went higher than Puljujarvi ;)
 

kerrabria

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I thought you guys might like to know that I watched Pittsburgh vs Philly the other night. Besides his usual bad play and requisite odd-man-rush per period:
Matheson was the guy in front of the net with van Riemsdyk when he tipped it in on the PP.
Matheson was the guy who took the behind-the-play penalty on the second PP goal.
Matheson was the guy who lost his man when Farabee scored.
One of the times Matheson coughed it up in the offensive zone and didn't get back (his third period breakaway) they scored.

Fun times.
 
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FinlandPanther

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I thought you guys might like to know that I watched Pittsburgh vs Philly the other night. Besides his usual bad play and requisite odd-man-rush per period:
Matheson was the guy in front of the net with van Riemsdyk when he tipped it in on the PP.
Matheson was the guy who took the behind-the-play penalty on the second PP goal.
Matheson was the guy who lost his man when Farabee scored.
One of the times Matheson coughed it up in the offensive zone and didn't get back (his third period breakaway) they scored.

Fun times.
Our team got better the day he left.
 

Pigge

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Feb 28, 2002
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I thought you guys might like to know that I watched Pittsburgh vs Philly the other night. Besides his usual bad play and requisite odd-man-rush per period:
Matheson was the guy in front of the net with van Riemsdyk when he tipped it in on the PP.
Matheson was the guy who took the behind-the-play penalty on the second PP goal.
Matheson was the guy who lost his man when Farabee scored.
One of the times Matheson coughed it up in the offensive zone and didn't get back (his third period breakaway) they scored.

Fun times.
He did get back and broke up the play, and they scored because nobody else backchecked. He has always been good at catching up and breaking up those breakaways. If he doesn't develop his game a bit, he will become more of a liability when he loses a step so he can't make those hustle plays anymore.
 

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