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CanesFanBudMan

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I don't see a big difference between the two. Ferland is much more physical, has a higher motor, and a much better shot. JT Miller is a better playmaker and defender. Both are ~40 point wingers in the Canes top-6 or 50+ point wingers next to Aho (or another capable Center).

I don't mind that swap but I personally like what Ferland brings to the table more. Assuming he can get healthy. If Miller was right handed or had any documented PP capabilities then I'd be more interested.

JT Miller would costs assets (at least a 2nd round pick +) to acquire and makes $5.25 million a year. Ferland would be free and likely clocks in around the same salary.

Even if you dont look at the fact that JT has scored more than Ferland's highest scoring season 4 times he is still a considerably better offensive player as he can produce w/o his teams top talent. Looking at the past 2 years (these may be slightly off as I counted by hand):

JT Miller:

2018-19: Of his 47 points 21 (44%) were scored without any of Kucherov, Stamkos, or Point being listed on the score sheet for the point.
2017-18: of his 58 points 32 (55%) we scored without Zuccarello or Zibanejad when on the Rangers or the 3 mentioned above when on the TBL.

Ferland:

2018-19 Of his 40 points 12 (30%) were scored without Aho or TT
2017-18 Of his 41 points 7 (17%) were scored without Gaudreau or Monahan

I took the 3 top scores from TBL rahter than the 2 from Carolina and NYR to mitigate TBL's historic regular season.

If we bring Ferland back there is a good chance he does not slot into the top 6 let alone the top line. 5 million is a lot to spend on 20-30 points.

Edit: I am not saying this to bash Ferland - I would love to bring him back at 4 million.
 

bleedgreen

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You can think that way, but there's no team that didn't hire Chiarelli that would give up Hamilton for Hanifin. That's a fleecing. There had to be additions on our end to get Hamilton in the deal, which is why Lindholm for Ferland+Fox is in Calgary's favor.

It's almost impossible to break down a deal like this into individual components, and trying to grade it that way makes zero sense. In truth, we took a talent hit at forward in order to take a big step forward today on D and get rights to a prospect that turned into 2 2nd round picks.
I think Hanifin for Hamilton is closer than you do obviously. The fans mostly hated Hamilton. The gm said publicly there were things better left unsaid about him in the locker room. Everyone associated with the team thought the pairings were all wrong and that Dougie taking the spot beside Giordano was the root of the problem. Hanifin was very highly thought of and Hamilton was not. So maybe we added a pick? Sure but we didn’t have to add Lindy to get Hamilton. Hamilton gone was addition by subtraction to them, and they saved money on the whole thing which today makes a huge difference in value.

We were going to get O’Reilly for Hanifin. The guy had value.
 

GoldiFox

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Even if you dont look at the fact that JT has scored more than Ferland's highest scoring season 4 times he is still a considerably better offensive player as he can produce w/o his teams top talent. Looking at the past 2 years (these may be slightly off as I counted by hand):

JT Miller:

2018-19: Of his 47 points 21 (44%) were scored without any of Kucherov, Stamkos, or Point being listed on the score sheet for the point.
2017-18: of his 58 points 32 (55%) we scored without Zuccarello or Zibanejad when on the Rangers or the 3 mentioned above when on the TBL.

Ferland:

2018-19 Of his 40 points 12 (30%) were scored without Aho or TT
2017-18 Of his 41 points 7 (17%) were scored without Gaudreau or Monahan

I took the 3 top scores from TBL rahter than the 2 from Carolina and NYR to mitigate TBL's historic regular season.

If we bring Ferland back there is a good chance he does not slot into the top 6 let alone the top line. 5 million is a lot to spend on 20-30 points.

Edit: I am not saying this to bash Ferland - I would love to bring him back at 4 million.

Ferland was a late bloomer that didn't break out until last year.

Your points with/without analysis doesn't work like you present it. You cobbled together too many things based on incomplete data.
- Looking a who is and isn't listed on the scoresheet isn't an indication of who these guys play with
- In 2018-19 JT Miller's #1 linemate last year was Steven Stamkos with 395 minutes with
- In 2017-18 JT Miller's #1&2 linemates in Tampa were Kucherov (138 minutes) and Stamkos (109 minutes)
- In 2017-18 JT Miller's #1 linemamate in NYR by nearly 100 minutes was Zuccarello (373 minutes with)
- Trying to separate out both Aho and Teravainen for Ferland's production this year is bad analysis. Aho and Teravainen played largely on separate lines, you are eliminating the entire top-6. You are basically saying "When Ferland played with Wallmark and Martinook he wasn't very productive". Well, duh. Neither was Andrei Svechnikov. If you put Niederreiter with Wallmark and Martinook he will produce similarly as well.
- Tampa's 3rd line is Killorn + Cirelli. Two significantly better players offensively than Wallmark + Martinook.
- The Flames in 2017-18 didn't have any productive forwards outside of Gaudreau and Monahan.

For all the "Ferland is dependent on good linemates" arguments, Ferlands P/60 actually increased once Aho and TT were broken apart. This is with an increasingly troublesome lingering injury.
 
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bleedgreen

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I'd still sign Ferland to $5 million x 3-5 years (preferably 3 and max 5). He would make Nino money for a Nino impact.

I'm not super excited about Ferland's lingering injury this year but I'd be pretty pumped if the Canes did re-sign him given their knowledge of the situation. Barring a Hayes/Duchene signing, Ferland is just about the best UFA fit out there for the way Rod wants to play. Which makes sense given that this is why the Canes acquired him in the first place.
I would pay this too.

I would also take Ferland over Miller. I’ve never gotten the excitement over that guy, though he couldn’t maybe be the center I want too.

I think we miss what Ferland brings already. Obviously health is an issue but he’s not easily replaced in style. Not only does he play the way he does but he almost never takes a dumb penalty in a league where they’re trying to outlaw hitting. He’s pretty unique.
 
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Chrispy

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We were going to get O’Reilly for Hanifin. The guy had value.

Hanifin would have been part of a package for O'Reilly; I don't think 1-for-1 was possible.

Also recall Hanifin was insufficient for 1+ season of Duchene according to Colorado's announcer team after the trade; they were insisting on Slavin for Duchene.
 
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spockBokk

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Hanifin would have been part of a package for O'Reilly; I don't think 1-for-1 was possible.

Also recall Hanifin was insufficient for 1+ season of Duchene according to Colorado's announcer team after the trade; they were insisting on Slavin for Duchene.

Hanifin + Skinner for ROR + one of BUF’s 2019 1st/ or even Cliff Pu plus all the other picks, would have been ideal, but there’s no way Dundon would’ve signed on to pay ROR’s $7m bonus on 7/1.
 
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CanesFanBudMan

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Ferland was a late bloomer that didn't break out until last year.

Your points with/without analysis doesn't work like you present it. You cobbled together too many things based on incomplete data.
- Looking a who is and isn't listed on the scoresheet isn't an indication of who these guys play with
- In 2018-19 JT Miller's #1 linemate last year was Steven Stamkos with 395 minutes with
- In 2017-18 JT Miller's #1&2 linemates in Tampa were Kucherov (138 minutes) and Stamkos (109 minutes)
- In 2017-18 JT Miller's #1 linemamate in NYR by nearly 100 minutes was Zuccarello (373 minutes with)
- Trying to separate out both Aho and Teravainen for Ferland's production this year is bad analysis. Aho and Teravainen played largely on separate lines, you are eliminating the entire top-6. You are basically saying "When Ferland played with Wallmark and Martinook he wasn't very productive". Well, duh. Neither was Andrei Svechnikov. If you put Niederreiter with Wallmark and Martinook he will produce similarly as well.
- Tampa's 3rd line is Killorn + Cirelli. Two significantly better players offensively than Wallmark + Martinook.
- The Flames in 2017-18 didn't have any productive forwards outside of Gaudreau and Monahan.

For all the "Ferland is dependent on good linemates" arguments, Ferlands P/60 actually increased once Aho and TT were broken apart. This is with an increasingly troublesome lingering injury.
Ok so lets look at Ferland's year this year and JTs last year only when he was on the Rangers (on a very offensively anemic team). The both had 40 points JT in 63 games and Ferland in 71.

On Ferlands points here is who else was on the scoresheet:
Aho (20)
TT (18)
Dougie (7)
Williams (4)
Wallmark (4)
Staal (4)
Svech (3)
Martinook (2)
Slavin (2)
TVR (2)
Zykov (2)
Faulk (2)
McKegg (1)
13 people total and very highly dependent on Aho and TT

Now looking at JT Miller
Zuccarello (11)
McDonagh (9)
Shattenkirk (8)
Grabner (7)
Desharnais (6)
Skjei (6)
Hayes (5)
Krieder (4)
Zinjebad (4)
Nash (3)
DeAngelo (2)
Buchnevich (2)
8 other people (1 each)
20 people total - pretty well spread throughout a lineup that was much worse than this years Canes lineup

I don't see any way you can spin it to show that Ferland is on the same level offensively as JT other than that he is more of a goal scorer rather than a playmaker
 

Surrounded By Ahos

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Ok so lets look at Ferland's year this year and JTs last year only when he was on the Rangers (on a very offensively anemic team). The both had 40 points JT in 63 games and Ferland in 71.

On Ferlands points here is who else was on the scoresheet:
Aho (20)
TT (18)
Dougie (7)
Williams (4)
Wallmark (4)
Staal (4)
Svech (3)
Martinook (2)
Slavin (2)
TVR (2)
Zykov (2)
Faulk (2)
McKegg (1)
13 people total and very highly dependent on Aho and TT

Now looking at JT Miller
Zuccarello (11)
McDonagh (9)
Shattenkirk (8)
Grabner (7)
Desharnais (6)
Skjei (6)
Hayes (5)
Krieder (4)
Zinjebad (4)
Nash (3)
DeAngelo (2)
Buchnevich (2)
8 other people (1 each)
20 people total - pretty well spread throughout a lineup that was much worse than this years Canes lineup

I don't see any way you can spin it to show that Ferland is on the same level offensively as JT other than that he is more of a goal scorer rather than a playmaker
If you really want to make get your point across you’ll need to do a full CGAP analysis.
 

GoldiFox

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Ok so lets look at Ferland's year this year and JTs last year only when he was on the Rangers (on a very offensively anemic team). The both had 40 points JT in 63 games and Ferland in 71.

On Ferlands points here is who else was on the scoresheet:
Aho (20)
TT (18)
Dougie (7)
Williams (4)
Wallmark (4)
Staal (4)
Svech (3)
Martinook (2)
Slavin (2)
TVR (2)
Zykov (2)
Faulk (2)
McKegg (1)
13 people total and very highly dependent on Aho and TT

Now looking at JT Miller
Zuccarello (11)
McDonagh (9)
Shattenkirk (8)
Grabner (7)
Desharnais (6)
Skjei (6)
Hayes (5)
Krieder (4)
Zinjebad (4)
Nash (3)
DeAngelo (2)
Buchnevich (2)
8 other people (1 each)
20 people total - pretty well spread throughout a lineup that was much worse than this years Canes lineup

I don't see any way you can spin it to show that Ferland is on the same level offensively as JT other than that he is more of a goal scorer rather than a playmaker

Hayes, Kreider, Grabner, Buchnevich, Zibanejad are all >>>> Wallmark, Martinook, Zykov, Staal, McKegg offensively

NYR's lineup has much more offensive skill.

I'm just confused by the analysis. At the very least you need to pare it down to 5v5 only, remove defenders (NYR had 12 play for them in 2017-18) and divide by the ice time with each player to compare P/60 rather than nominal production. JT Miller put up 1 single point with 8 more linemates than Ferland and you are saying that is meaningful. I just don't see it.

For me, putting up more points next to more people is more an indicator of how a coach deploys players than how a player can produce. Ferland was on Aho and/or TTs line for the vast majority of the year. Not surprising that the majority of his production is with those two.

It would be like running this analysis with Niederreiter and finding he only produces with Aho. I'm not sure that makes JT Miller a better player just because he scored one point with a dozen other players. Let's say Rod cycled 4th liners up onto an Aho-Ferland line all year. Ferland adds one point with 5 additional players. Does that make him better?
 
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CanesFanBudMan

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Hayes, Kreider, Grabner, Buchnevich, Zibanejad are all >>>> Wallmark, Martinook, Zykov, Staal, McKegg offensively

NYR's lineup has much more offensive skill.

I'm just confused by the analysis. At the very least you need to pare it down to 5v5 only, remove defenders (NYR had 12 play for them in 2017-18) and divide by the ice time with each player to compare P/60 rather than nominal production. JT Miller put up 1 single point with 8 more linemates than Ferland and you are saying that is meaningful. I just don't see it.

For me, putting up more points next to more people is more an indicator of how a coach deploys players than how a player can produce. Ferland was on Aho and/or TTs line for the vast majority of the year. Not surprising that the majority of his production is with those two.

It would be like running this analysis with Niederreiter and finding he only produces with Aho. I'm not sure that makes JT Miller a better player just because he scored one point with a dozen other players. Let's say Rod cycled 4th liners up onto an Aho-Ferland line all year. Ferland adds one point with 5 additional players. Does that make him better?
Ok you got me - my argument holds no water because the Rangers were an offensive powerhouse last year...
 
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GoldiFox

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Ok you got me - my argument holds no water because the Rangers were an offensive powerhouse last year...

I'll just lay out your argument in a way that makes sense to me to illustrate my point:

Ferland GF/60TOI WithTOI%Goals ForGF/60
Teuvo Teravainen520.763%313.57
Sebastian Aho351.942%244.09
Lucas Wallmark244.629%61.47
Jordan Martinook128.115%31.41
Jordan Staal116.114%84.14
Andrei Svechnikov75.99%21.58
Justin Williams65.18%65.53
Victor Rask46.46%11.29
Clark Bishop31.74%11.89
Greg McKegg30.74%35.87
Brock McGinn27.23%00.00
Warren Foegele9.51%00.00
Saku Maenalanen8.21%00.00
Valentin Zykov3.20%00.00
[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Ferland spent ~60% of the year with Teravainen and ~40% of the year with TT + Aho. In both of these roles (alongside Staal/Williams as well) Ferland's line produced 3.5-4 Goals For per 60. Next to Wallmark and Martinook, where Ferland spent the remainder of his year, the line produced only ~1.5 GF/60.


WithTOI With% TOIGFGF/60
Mats Zuccarello373.544%162.57
Michael Grabner292.035%142.88
David Desharnais180.821%92.99
Jimmy Vesey160.219%72.62
Kevin Hayes154.818%72.71
Rick Nash134.416%52.23
Mika Zibanejad97.612%31.84
Chris Kreider67.78%54.43
Jesper Fast63.48%32.84
Pavel Buchnevich54.66%44.40
Vinni Lettieri48.36%11.24
Peter Holland23.63%12.54
Paul Carey23.33%12.57
Cody McLeod12.41%14.83
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
JT Miller spent a significantly lower % of his time with his most common linemates. As you can see, his minutes were spread more throughout the lineup. Which would intuitively mean that he would show up on the scoresheet with a lot of different players.

JT Miller's top deployment with Zuccarello resulted in only 2.57 Goals For per 60. This is significantly lower than the 3.5-4 GF/60 that Ferland produced both on the Canes 1st and 2nd line. JT Miller's lines score at a more consistent rate when he is a part of them. Largely between 2.5-3 GF/60.

"he is still a considerably better offensive player as he can produce w/o his teams top talent" was your quote regarding JT Miller versus Ferland. I'm not sure the data shows that. The only period in which you'd be correct is the minutes Ferland spent with Martinook + Wallmark. That is a fairly isolated case that can be analyzed on its own. Wallmark + Martinook have played 590 minutes together this year and have produced a 5v5 G/60 rate of 1.72. I don't expect Ferland to carry those two and more than I expect Svechnikov.
 

CanesFanBudMan

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I'll just lay out your argument in a way that makes sense to me to illustrate my point:

Ferland GF/60TOI WithTOI%Goals ForGF/60
Teuvo Teravainen520.763%313.57
Sebastian Aho351.942%244.09
Lucas Wallmark244.629%61.47
Jordan Martinook128.115%31.41
Jordan Staal116.114%84.14
Andrei Svechnikov75.99%21.58
Justin Williams65.18%65.53
Victor Rask46.46%11.29
Clark Bishop31.74%11.89
Greg McKegg30.74%35.87
Brock McGinn27.23%00.00
Warren Foegele9.51%00.00
Saku Maenalanen8.21%00.00
Valentin Zykov3.20%00.00
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
Ferland spent ~60% of the year with Teravainen and ~40% of the year with TT + Aho. In both of these roles (alongside Staal/Williams as well) Ferland's line produced 3.5-4 Goals For per 60. Next to Wallmark and Martinook, where Ferland spent the remainder of his year, the line produced only ~1.5 GF/60.


WithTOI With% TOIGFGF/60
Mats Zuccarello373.544%162.57
Michael Grabner292.035%142.88
David Desharnais180.821%92.99
Jimmy Vesey160.219%72.62
Kevin Hayes154.818%72.71
Rick Nash134.416%52.23
Mika Zibanejad97.612%31.84
Chris Kreider67.78%54.43
Jesper Fast63.48%32.84
Pavel Buchnevich54.66%44.40
Vinni Lettieri48.36%11.24
Peter Holland23.63%12.54
Paul Carey23.33%12.57
Cody McLeod12.41%14.83
[TBODY] [/TBODY]
JT Miller spent a significantly lower % of his time with his most common linemates. As you can see, his minutes were spread more throughout the lineup. Which would intuitively mean that he would show up on the scoresheet with a lot of different players.

JT Miller's top deployment with Zuccarello resulted in only 2.57 Goals For per 60. This is significantly lower than the 3.5-4 GF/60 that Ferland produced both on the Canes 1st and 2nd line. JT Miller's lines score at a more consistent rate when he is a part of them. Largely between 2.5-3 GF/60.

"he is still a considerably better offensive player as he can produce w/o his teams top talent" was your quote regarding JT Miller versus Ferland. I'm not sure the data shows that. The only period in which you'd be correct is the minutes Ferland spent with Martinook + Wallmark. That is a fairly isolated case that can be analyzed on its own. Wallmark + Martinook have played 590 minutes together this year and have produced a 5v5 G/60 rate of 1.72. I don't expect Ferland to carry those two and more than I expect Svechnikov.

This is a good analysis. But to me it still shows that Ferland is dependent on playing with Aho or TT to produce. Where JT is pretty consistent regardless of deployment. This makes since having watched all of Ferland's games as a Cane because if he is set up he can finish so it makes sense that when playing with the likes of TT and/or Aho his oiGF/60 would go way up. NN's numbers would no doubt show a similar pattern in this regard.

I just don't see Ferland playing in the top 6 too much next year as I think the top 6 wingers will likely be TT, NN, Svech, and Williams. That leaves Ferland playing with some combination of Staal, Necas, Wallmark, Martinook, McGinn, Foegele, etc.
Maybe Necas would be the playmaker he would need to produce well, but I would not bet on it.

JT on the other hand has shown that he can produce up and down the lineup as well as play in the middle.

That being said I'm not all in on JT or bust, but if he really is as available as he allegedly is I would give him a good look.

Also talk about a tangent from Adam Fox
 

bleedgreen

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Letting Ferland go because he’s not going to fit into the top six due to the presence of 38 year old Williams....

Now that’s a new one.

Rod swapped everyone around as needed all year. Being black and white about the lineup like that doesn’t line up to what happens generally or what happened this year.

And....teams like Tampa find a way to fit in guys who can score on the third line. It would hardly be a sin to have a guy who can score on a top six role in the third line.
 

CanesFanBudMan

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Letting Ferland go because he’s not going to fit into the top six due to the presence of 38 year old Williams....

Now that’s a new one.

Rod swapped everyone around as needed all year. Being black and white about the lineup like that doesn’t line up to what happens generally or what happened this year.

And....teams like Tampa find a way to fit in guys who can score on the third line. It would hardly be a sin to have a guy who can score on a top six role in the third line.
Rod swapped everyone around all year but other than maybe a few games Aho, TT, and Williams were always in the top 6. Williams is old, but currently playing like a top 6 player- if he does not retire Rod will no doubt play him in the top 6.
 
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My Special Purpose

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Rod swapped everyone around all year but other than maybe a few games Aho, TT, and Williams were always in the top 6. Williams is old, but currently playing like a top 6 player- if he does not retire Rod will no doubt play him in the top 6.

For some reason, bleed's in a bad mood and just disagreeing with everyone on everything. I don't think Williams should prevent us from getting another top nine forward, but suggesting he hasn't been a top six guy this year is just ridiculous.
 
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bleedgreen

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For some reason, bleed's in a bad mood and just disagreeing with everyone on everything. I don't think Williams should prevent us from getting another top nine forward, but suggesting he hasn't been a top six guy this year is just ridiculous.
When did I suggest that? I said not signing Ferland because we have too many top six forwards due to Williams currently having a top six spot didn’t make any sense. I never said Williams isn’t performing like a top six? I’m saying he’s gonna be 38 and we would be signing Ferland for years to come so just because we have Williams pencilled in as a top six next year shouldn’t have any bearing on whether or not we sign Ferland. With or without Ferland, Williams could start next year on any line, including the first.

I’m in a pretty good mood? :dunno:
 

DaveG

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When did I suggest that? I said not signing Ferland because we have too many top six forwards due to Williams currently having a top six spot didn’t make any sense. I never said Williams isn’t performing like a top six? I’m saying he’s gonna be 38 and we would be signing Ferland for years to come so just because we have Williams pencilled in as a top six next year shouldn’t have any bearing on whether or not we sign Ferland. With or without Ferland, Williams could start next year on any line, including the first.

I’m in a pretty good mood? :dunno:
Yep, I mean you know what's better than having 6 guys who can play as top 6 forwards? Having 8 guys that can play as top 6 forwards. Because especially in hockey that's hugely necessary.
 

spockBokk

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4 game countdown for Fox to hit his 30th game this year. Barring injury, he'll hit 30gms played against LA on 12/10.


(Now that I've posted this he's probably bound to suffer a season-ending injury during warmups on 12/10, the NYR 2nd turns into another Aho and Fox comes back as a perennial Norris contender starting in 20-21.)
 

Vagrant

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seeing all this about ferland reminded me how bad he's been this year. unlucky with a recent concussion as well. he's only getting 10 minutes a night in vancouver and they've got him for 3 more. whatever line in the sand we drew, it was the right decision. tough to get these right, but this group has more often than not.

as for adam fox? f*** adam fox.
 

TheReelChuckFletcher

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seeing all this about ferland reminded me how bad he's been this year. unlucky with a recent concussion as well. he's only getting 10 minutes a night in vancouver and they've got him for 3 more. whatever line in the sand we drew, it was the right decision. tough to get these right, but this group has more often than not.

as for adam fox? **** adam fox.

Dzingel for Ferland was a game of tradeoffs, and overall it was a good decision. Everybody, including him, could use Erik Haula back, though. That'll get the secondary scoring back on track after everybody has been panicking on this board about it (despite the fact that we still have a winning record despite our struggles for 100% consistency from our depth guys and call-ups).
 
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