Line Combos: Forward line-up: what would you do?

[GNP]

I really liked the line configurations the Jet's used vs the Sabres.

Most impressive with a lot of upside to come is - Connor, Little Laine. You have to have Laine a 44 goal scorer playing with talent like Connor and Little--leave it as it is.

Also the 4th line with Roslo, Petan and Perrault looked really good, and should be left alone, and I have "no doubt" they will start to score--especially Roslovic.

The 3rd line is not a scoring line to me--"at all"--they have stone hands, and won't score much, but they are a good hard working shut down line.

Our defensive parings are good, and we get scoring from them.

What is needed is a 2nd line center - maybe trade a good winger for one-- but who do we want to let go of--their all good ??

May be a good idea to move Wheeler down to center the 2nd line ??? he's more of a playmaker, than a scoring winger.

 

[Adam da bomb]

I really liked the line configurations the Jet's used vs the Sabres.

Most impressive with a lot of upside to come is - Connor, Little Laine. You have to have Laine a 44 goal scorer playing with talent like Connor and Little--leave it as it is.

Also the 4th line with Roslo, Petan and Perrault looked really good, and should be left alone, and I have "no doubt" they will start to score--especially Roslociv.

The 3rd line is not a scoring line to me--"at all"--they have stone hands, and won't score much, but they are a good hard working shut down line.

Our defensive parings are good, and we get scoring from them.

What is needed is a 2nd line center - maybe trade a good winger for one-- but who do we want to let go of--their all good ??

May be a good idea to move Wheeler down to center the 2nd line ??? he's more of a playmaker, than a scoring winger.

Trade Ehlers for a centre, Kevin Hayes, play ves with Schief and Wheeler.

 

[MoreMorrissey]

At some point I'd look into a top 9 of

Ehlers-Scheifele-Wheeler
Connor-Roslovic-Laine
Tanev-Lowry-Little

Great speed from the LWs, 2 way game from the centres, and shooters at RW. Little on a shutdown line as a winger works, and certainly he and Roslovic are interchangeable.
I think that's 3 lines that can play.

4th can be constructed out of any of Perreault, Petan, Copp, Veselainen (while here), Lemieux, Appleton and Suess. As I think Maurice can confidently play Perreault and Copp up the lineup as required.

Uhhhhhhhhhhhhh I want this so bad honestly with the plays Rosie has been setting up in his 5 mins of ice time he deserves to be flanked by some actual scorers.
Pls Maurice just try this at home with some easy matchups to test because the upside is incredible.

 

[10Ducky10]

I'd like to see Roslo and Tanev trade lines.
Copper Lowry Roslo
MP Petan Tanev

 

[Adam da bomb]

I'd like to see Roslo and Tanev trade lines.
Copper Lowry Roslo
MP Petan Tanev

I just want Rosie as the first up in the top 6 if there are any injuries. Other than that I think he has more scoring opportunities with Petan and Perrault.

 

[10Ducky10]

I would give him more TOI which equates to Lowry's line.
I'd also start him killing penalties a bit.
The more ice time he sees, the better.

 

[KingBogo]

Trade Ehlers for a centre, Kevin Hayes, play ves with Schief and Wheeler.

Seriously? Hayes is a much worse player and a pending UFA.

 

[garret9]

Over the last season and this season so far MP is 8th in ice time among Jets forwards, and 5th among wingers, behind Wheeler, Connor Ehlers and Laine. Not sure I'd play him more than any of them.

At 5v5, yes, I might use him more than some of those players.

I don't think a 5v5 specialist should be on the 4th most commonly used 5v5 line, which has happened many times.

Over the same period you are talking, at 5v5, Perreault had a better impact on his linemates' in the following:

• Wheeler, Ehlers, Laine in goal differential
• Wheeler, Connor, Ehlers, Laine in Corsi differential
• Wheeler, Connor, Ehlers, Laine in xGoal differential

So whether in predicting outscoring or actual outscoring, yes.

 

[garret9]

The fact remains that he was unproductive through the last half of last season, the playoffs and the first 17 games of this season. Players can't do much without opportunity but they need to earn the opportunity. Bit of a catch 22 situation.

IIRC we saw good underlying stats for Dano in limited use too. Should he still be here?

Everyone has moments of being unproductive, and players don't control when that is. To knock someone for a stronger start and slower end more than a slower start and stronger end is not productive is not beneficial to actually evaluating a player.

To answer your question, probably but that's predicated on many factors like contracts, etc. Also, it's a huge difference between Dano and Perreault.

Dano did well for his usage and probably should have been used more than one or two players who he could be slightly better than. Perreault is arguably a top line talent at 5v5, although his special teams impact is marginal.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Everyone has moments of being unproductive, and players don't control when that is. To knock someone for a stronger start and slower end more than a slower start and stronger end is not productive is not beneficial to actually evaluating a player.

To answer your question, probably but that's predicated on many factors like contracts, etc. Also, it's a huge difference between Dano and Perreault.

Dano did well for his usage and probably should have been used more than one or two players who he could be slightly better than.

Perreault is still a good player - but I don't think he is the player he used to be. By the eye test he is not the Tasmanian Devil he once was. I can't say for certain of course, but I think cumulative injuries are catching up to him.

Of course players are streaky. That's normal. Sometimes a bad streak is the new norm. The problem with waiting until the statistics show this is that by then it is too late to get anything for him, or even to just move his contract without paying a big price to do so. Certainty is expensive.

 

[Adam da bomb]

Perreault is still a good player - but I don't think he is the player he used to be. By the eye test he is not the Tasmanian Devil he once was. I can't say for certain of course, but I think cumulative injuries are catching up to him.

Of course players are streaky. That's normal. Sometimes a bad streak is the new norm. The problem with waiting until the statistics show this is that by then it is too late to get anything for him, or even to just move his contract without paying a big price to do so. Certainty is expensive.

But being a tasmanian devil is not streaky. Putting the puck in the net is streaky. Outworking everyone and having a good idea where the play is going is not streaky. Certainty is expensive!!

 

[garret9]

Perreault is still a good player - but I don't think he is the player he used to be. By the eye test he is not the Tasmanian Devil he once was. I can't say for certain of course, but I think cumulative injuries are catching up to him.

Of course players are streaky. That's normal. Sometimes a bad streak is the new norm. The problem with waiting until the statistics show this is that by then it is too late to get anything for him, or even to just move his contract without paying a big price to do so. Certainty is expensive.

Each of your paragraphs have an issue in that the evidence I've already presented contradicts what you are saying:
1) Even if he's not what he used to be the impact still puts him as a great player, much greater than you are giving him. Over this and last season his GAR/60 is second highest after Scheifele.
2) Sometimes it's not, and more often than not people are bad at judging it. After all, he's not even on a streak. Remember he's the Jets second highest 5v5 primary point producer this season relative to ice time. This season he's producing more than anyone else at evens relative to how often he's used other than Scheifele...

 

[garret9]

But being a tasmanian devil is not streaky. Putting the puck in the net is streaky. Outworking everyone and having a good idea where the play is going is not streaky. Certainty is expensive!!

There doesn't seem to be any players more or less streaky, in performance.
What happens is players who score more score more often, so they seem less streaky.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

Each of your paragraphs have an issue in that the evidence I've already presented contradicts what you are saying:
1) Even if he's not what he used to be the impact still puts him as a great player, much greater than you are giving him
2) Sometimes it's not, and more often than not people are bad at judging it. After all, he's not even on a streak. Remember he's the Jets second highest 5v5 primary point producer this season relative to ice time. This season he's producing more than anyone else at evens relative to how often he's used other than Scheifele...

Fair enough. But the whole team is bad 5v5 this year. Of course, then the argument becomes about singling him out. Why him and not the C's?

Hope I'm wrong and he rebounds - or just gets the TOI to get his production up. Whatever it takes. Him and the rest of the team.

 

[garret9]

Fair enough. But the whole team is bad 5v5 this year. Of course, then the argument becomes about singling him out. Why him and not the C's?

Hope I'm wrong and he rebounds - or just gets the TOI to get his production up. Whatever it takes. Him and the rest of the team.

You're hoping for him to rebound... rebound to what? How much more should we expect him to score relative to his ice time?

He has 4 primary 5v5 points in 173 mins (3G, 1A). If he had 1 more, he'd be at 1.73. That would essentially tie him to Ehlers, who ranked 2nd in 5v5 primary points per hour last year on the Jets.

Low ice time means relative performance varies greatly with the slightest difference.

My point being is people don't really have a strong understanding of what expectations should be for performance relative to the opportunities they are provided.

 

[Mortimer Snerd]

You're hoping for him to rebound... rebound to what? How much more should we expect him to score relative to his ice time?

He has 4 primary 5v5 points in 173 mins (3G, 1A). If he had 1 more, he'd be at 1.73. That would essentially tie him to Ehlers, who ranked 2nd in 5v5 primary points per hour last year on the Jets.

Low ice time means relative performance varies greatly with the slightest difference.

My point being is people don't really have a strong understanding of what expectations should be for performance relative to the opportunities they are provided.

I quote myself - "or just gets the TOI to get his production up."

If he had 1 more he'd have 1 more. That's a what if argument. Who would he be essentially tied with if he had 1 less? He's not at 1.73. He is at 1.39.

Is 173 mins enough to be statistically significant? I'm looking at the entire last half of last season + playoffs + first 18 games of this season. That's 68 games. I don't know how many minutes it is nor his primary points/60 5v5 in that span. But there appears to be a trend. If I wait until that trend is statistically proven, the moment is lost.

Since coming to the Jets he has scored at a 48.7 pts per season pace. What kind of return would a LW who scores at that pace, with 2 more years after the current one at 4.125 mil typically bring? Would MP bring that kind of return right now? I suspect not. And falling further behind it. He probably needs to be moved after this season regardless, for cap reasons. What are we likely to get for him if he finishes the season with 18 pts? Can we sell him by saying yabut his pts/60 were good?

 

[Whileee]

At 5v5, yes, I might use him more than some of those players.

I don't think a 5v5 specialist should be on the 4th most commonly used 5v5 line, which has happened many times.

Over the same period you are talking, at 5v5, Perreault had a better impact on his linemates' in the following:

• Wheeler, Ehlers, Laine in goal differential
• Wheeler, Connor, Ehlers, Laine in Corsi differential
• Wheeler, Connor, Ehlers, Laine in xGoal differential

So whether in predicting outscoring or actual outscoring, yes.

Connor, Ehlers and Laine were 20, 21 and 19 years old. There's no question that Perreault is a very good player, but I don't think it's that surprising that those 4 wingers have been playing more 5v5 than Perreault, all things considered. The Jets clearly anticipate that their development will be important to the overall development of the franchise. I think they might consider keeping Perreault over one of Ehlers or Connor in the near term, but given his age and contract status I could understand them focusing in on the three young wingers (and Wheeler).

 

[JetsFan815]

I can't believe I forgot about the hot new prospect by the name of "Perreault" that the Jets have!

 

[Adam da bomb]

Connor, Ehlers and Laine were 20, 21 and 19 years old. There's no question that Perreault is a very good player, but I don't think it's that surprising that those 4 wingers have been playing more 5v5 than Perreault, all things considered. The Jets clearly anticipate that their development will be important to the overall development of the franchise. I think they might consider keeping Perreault over one of Ehlers or Connor in the near term, but given his age and contract status I could understand them focusing in on the three young wingers (and Wheeler).

Not to mention another winger/ centre named Rosie who is not getting enough playing time but giving him top 6 minutes would be better for the org.

 

[garret9]

Connor, Ehlers and Laine were 20, 21 and 19 years old. There's no question that Perreault is a very good player, but I don't think it's that surprising that those 4 wingers have been playing more 5v5 than Perreault, all things considered. The Jets clearly anticipate that their development will be important to the overall development of the franchise. I think they might consider keeping Perreault over one of Ehlers or Connor in the near term, but given his age and contract status I could understand them focusing in on the three young wingers (and Wheeler).

I'm not surprised at anything... but I would say that I'm highly skeptical of development having anything to do with ice time. After all "the NHL is not a developmental league" and "it's about winning."

It can't be about development every time we disagree and the argument benefits you and it's about winning every time the opposite occurs.
(Note: the royal we and you, not you specifically)

 

[Whileee]

I'm not surprised at anything... but I would say two things:
I'm skeptical of development having anything to do with ice time. After all "the NHL is not a developmental league" and "it's about winning."

It can't be about development every time we disagree and the argument benefits you and it's about winning every time the opposite occurs.
(Note: the royal we and you, not you specifically)

I'm just suggesting a rationale for the Jets playing Connor, Ehlers and Laine more than Perreault over the past couple of seasons. It's explanative, not argumentative.

 

[garret9]

I'm just suggesting a rationale for the Jets playing Connor, Ehlers and Laine more than Perreault over the past couple of seasons. It's explanative, not argumentative.

It's a weak rationale as the team is highly inconsistent in that regards if that were the case and even explicitly argue against that case.

It's far more likely they just believe that was the right decision at the time, and I'm arguing they were likely wrong.

 

[StatisticsAddict99]

Ehlers	Scheifele	Wheeler
Connor	Copp	Laine
Perreault	Little	Roslovic
Vesalainen	Lowry	Tanev

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Use Copp as 2C for Defensive and Board support, play Vesalainen on a line with Lowry and Tanev for Scoring support and the development of his defensive game.

Having Copps ability to retrieve the puck in all zones along with his effective ability to transition the puck from the Defensive zone to the Offensive zone should give more time for Connor and Laine to create O-Zone opportunities while in the meantime limiting the opponents. I would say move Lowry to 2C but I believe Copp is more effective Offensively(better vision IMO) and is a much better skater and thus so making him more so effective for this role while minimally effecting the shutdown line.

 

[GNP]

The Jet's should keep the lines exactly as they are tight now :

The most important thing we see is that Connor can drive that 2nd line, and he looks to be the answer to getting Laine scoring again. If this continues, we will have 2 potent scoring lines. Let this new 2nd line gel, and see what it can do. It would be a big mistake to mess with this 2nd line, as both Connor and Laine are scoring, and seem to have great chemistry together.

Little is fine right now , as he compliments that line by working in the defensive end, getting possession of the puck and passing it up to Connor, who can make offensive zone enteries, and make plays happen. Little works from behind right now on the rush, but he's still a very competent 2 way center. If it so happens that someone like Roslovic eventually replaces him, then so be it, but right now Little is OK there.

In summary -- I'd definitely would not touch the lines right now -- we have 2 very potent scoring lines.

First-- -- E S W -- Ehler's belongs here - still needs to develop confidence.

2ND --- C L L -- With Connor on this line --it looks dynamite, with Laine.

3RD --- C L T -- not a scoring line at all-more of a shut down line

4TH --- P P R -- Roslovic, and Petan will only get better, improving all the time.

I hope the lines are set now, and let them play together, and develop. I really think we've found some "magic" by moving Connor down to play on the 2nd line.

 

[Ippenator]

Everyone has moments of being unproductive, and players don't control when that is. To knock someone for a stronger start and slower end more than a slower start and stronger end is not productive is not beneficial to actually evaluating a player.

To answer your question, probably but that's predicated on many factors like contracts, etc. Also, it's a huge difference between Dano and Perreault.

Dano did well for his usage and probably should have been used more than one or two players who he could be slightly better than. Perreault is arguably a top line talent at 5v5, although his special teams impact is marginal.

Hah! Dano used more!? Dano is the most overrated player I have ever seen in the NHL. The guy is absolutely useless at the NHL level. Pointless also in 8 games in the Avs and playing like crap there too (I have watched all Colorado games so far this season). And yet some people want to constantly promote a player like Dano, because he has so nice underlying stats. Just shows how little those underlying stats should be trusted. With Dano I trust my own eyes and the real end results describing stats like goals and points. And all these tell me easily that Dano is complete crap. Most probably his time in the NHL is soon up. No use at that level.