Confirmed with Link: Forsling Accepts Qualifying Offer

[Boom Boom Apathy]

My disagreement, is I'd categorize him as a decent 9th defensemen.

What is the basis of your categorization? His 10 or so NHL games a couple of years ago? His play this past season in the AHL? Or the fact that he's not made the jump to the NHL after a couple of AHL seasons? Not being a smart ass, nor saying you are wrong, I just haven't seen much of him at the AHL level or a handful of games at the NHL level 2 years ago so was just curious.

 

[Ole Gil]

What is the basis of your categorization? His 10 or so NHL games a couple of years ago? His play this past season in the AHL? Or the fact that he's not made the jump to the NHL after a couple of AHL seasons? Not being a smart ass, nor saying you are wrong, I just haven't seen much of him at the AHL level or a handful of games at the NHL level 2 years ago so was just curious.

They gave him 10 last year, and 0 this year. Bean and Carrick got callups. Fleury got the promotion. The signs point towards the franchise thinking he's #9. And it's not like Fleury was a great 6/7. He was pretty mediocre. And Carrick has established himself as AAAA. If they believed McKeown was a decent 6/7, and him coming up and playing a reliable 10 mintues was a thing, I think we'd have seen it. And with the way Fleury struggled at times, if they thought he had that ability, I think he'd have been given the chance to take Fleury's spot. But all signs point to the team not being interested in getting him in a Canes jersey.

Maybe I'm wrong on that. Which is the other side. What's the pro-Roland argument? What are the physical or abilities that people talk about him that make him sound like an NHL'r instead of an AHL'r? Shot? Skating? Size? Agility? Speed? I've never heard anything other than "He's pretty good positionally." And that limited amount of compliments matches up perfectly with how the organization has chosen to use him.

I could certainly be wrong, but everything points towards him not being a serious candidate to make this roster which a decent 6/7 would have a real shot at cracking.

 

[geehaad]

Could be they don't like him on the left side. There was never an opportunity on the right side last year.

 

[My Special Purpose]

I could certainly be wrong, but everything points towards him not being a serious candidate to make this roster which a decent 6/7 would have a real shot at cracking.

I agree. I mean, he's basically in the same position as Fleury -- drafted in 2014, RFA, no longer waiver exempt -- but isn't spoken about the same way. He's not signed yet, though, so I think we'll learn something if/when he gets signed, about the team's plans for him.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

Same was said about Carrick a number of times though.

carrick can't even play defense at the ahl level, though, unlike mckeown. the "oh no carrick's going to get claimed off waivers" hype was based entirely on a few preseason games where he scored some points and got into a fight. it never made any sense to anyone who spent any real time watching him. it would have been like bryan rodney getting claimed.

i think mckeown most likely would have gotten a call-up last year if he was a leftie. i still don't think there's any real chance he gets claimed off waivers, though.

speaking of carrick i wouldn't be surprised if he went to europe unless the hurricanes are offering a serious raise on his ahl salary. it doesn't really make any sort of sense for him to stick around in the ahl for another year and make 100k or whatever. it's obvious he's never going to play with the hurricanes (or any nhl team) full time.

 

[Vagrant]

the thing about all these depth defensemen is that they all lack specialties, which is why they're depth defensemen. the expectation for playing at even strength as a bottom pair guy is that you don't get murdered in your own zone. there are a lot of guys who can do that. the second expectation is that you're able to offer valuable special teams minutes in some capacity. people wonder a lot about why guys like brooks orpik, ben lovejoy, ian cole, chris tanev, derek engelland, nik hjalmarsson, etc. continually get jobs around the league. those guys kill about 3 minutes worth of penalties per game at a high level. they move bodies out from in front of the net and keep the crease clean. there are a litany of guys at the ahl level that could offer more at even strength, but having penalty killers that know their job and embrace that part of their game allows the top end of your defense to be fresh for offensive opportunities without being taxed too much by those hard minutes. having depth defensemen that makes the top end of your defense better is the dream for every club.

 

[A Star is Burns]

carrick can't even play defense at the ahl level, though, unlike mckeown. the "oh no carrick's going to get claimed off waivers" hype was based entirely on a few preseason games where he scored some points and got into a fight. it never made any sense to anyone who spent any real time watching him. it would have been like bryan rodney getting claimed.

i think mckeown most likely would have gotten a call-up last year if he was a leftie. i still don't think there's any real chance he gets claimed off waivers, though.

speaking of carrick i wouldn't be surprised if he went to europe unless the hurricanes are offering a serious raise on his ahl salary. it doesn't really make any sort of sense for him to stick around in the ahl for another year and make 100k or whatever. it's obvious he's never going to play with the hurricanes (or any nhl team) full time.

Of course I think that McKeown is better than Carrick ever was. He could realistically hold down a #6/7 spot if needed. But every team every year has guys everyone frets over losing, and 95% of the time it doesn't happen. Especially that first group of waivers to start the year with a million guys available and most teams willing to try guys of their own at that point. I wouldn't like losing him for nothing, but he is down the depth chart a bit and I wouldn't lose sleep over it.

 

[AD Skinner]

I'm not a major mckeown fanboy or anything, but looking at his stats vs fleury's stats I really don't see one being any better than the other. They were both drafted the same year, same age, have been checkers for 3 seasons.

Fleury (gp, g, a, p, pim, +/-)

AHL

69

7

19

26

8

16

|

Playoffs

5

0

0

0

0

-2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

NHL

67

0

8

8

14

-2

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

AHL

3

1

1

2

0

3

|

Playoffs

8

2

2

4

14

1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

NHL

20

0

1

1

2

4

|

Playoffs

9

0

0

0

2

1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

AHL

28

2

8

10

32

0

|

Playoffs

11

2

4

6

8

7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

McKeown

AHL

71

1

10

11

16

-10

|

Playoffs

5

0

3

3

5

0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

NHL

10

0

3

3

19

3

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

AHL

65

7

16

23

36

34

|

Playoffs

8

1

1

2

4

0

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

AHL

70

4

21

25

56

30

|

Playoffs

10

0

3

3

0

7

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

The first year they both played with charlotte Fleury was easily better in the regular season- more points, less penalties, better +/-. Then he spent the majority of the next year with the canes, doing not much while McKeown had a big improvement and then replicated that in 18-19. Fleury was back and forth seemingly not making a huge mark on either team but had a solid playoffs. Maybe its Mckeown's pedestrian post seasons that are holding him back? I don't know. But looking just at these statlines the only advantage I see that Fleury has is that he's played more NHL games. That's not nothing, but I don't see any reason he would be the heir apparent for that spot. Again, not a Mckeown fanboy or Fleury hater. Just my interpretation.

 

[GoldiFox]

the thing about all these depth defensemen is that they all lack specialties, which is why they're depth defensemen. the expectation for playing at even strength as a bottom pair guy is that you don't get murdered in your own zone. there are a lot of guys who can do that. the second expectation is that you're able to offer valuable special teams minutes in some capacity. people wonder a lot about why guys like brooks orpik, ben lovejoy, ian cole, chris tanev, derek engelland, nik hjalmarsson, etc. continually get jobs around the league. those guys kill about 3 minutes worth of penalties per game at a high level. they move bodies out from in front of the net and keep the crease clean. there are a litany of guys at the ahl level that could offer more at even strength, but having penalty killers that know their job and embrace that part of their game allows the top end of your defense to be fresh for offensive opportunities without being taxed too much by those hard minutes. having depth defensemen that makes the top end of your defense better is the dream for every club.

It will be interesting to see how the team handles the PK with De Haan's 147 minutes of PK (2 minutes per game) gone. Perhaps they ride Slavin-Pesce into oblivion. What is for sure is that the Canes didn't use Fleury in a depth/specialty role last year despite him seeming like a decent candidate for it. Fleury had 7 minutes of PK time in 20 games - similar to what Dougie Hamilton got. Forsling didn't get much PK time either.

Someone is going to have to pair with Faulk. De Haan was a great fit for that role on the PK but still a luxury at his AAV for a #2 PK specialist.

 

[Ole Gil]

The first year they both played with charlotte Fleury was easily better in the regular season- more points, less penalties, better +/-. Then he spent the majority of the next year with the canes, doing not much while McKeown had a big improvement and then replicated that in 18-19. Fleury was back and forth seemingly not making a huge mark on either team but had a solid playoffs. Maybe its Mckeown's pedestrian post seasons that are holding him back? I don't know. But looking just at these statlines the only advantage I see that Fleury has is that he's played more NHL games. That's not nothing, but I don't see any reason he would be the heir apparent for that spot. Again, not a Mckeown fanboy or Fleury hater. Just my interpretation.

It's so hard to take something away from statlines of defensive dmen in the minors when you're really just interested in how well they will play against NHL competition.

Fleury is bigger (6'3" 208) to McKeowns 6'1" 194. He's touted as being a better skater as well. When you're defending in transition against top Tier NHL'rs like OV how good you looked against a top tier AHL'r like Chris Terry isn't going to matter.

My uninformed guess, is that they can see something in McKeown's physical ability that they believe doesn't translate to the NHL game.

 

[My Special Purpose]

My uninformed guess, is that they can see something in McKeown's physical ability that they believe doesn't translate to the NHL game.

But looking just at these statlines the only advantage I see that Fleury has is that he's played more NHL games. That's not nothing, but I don't see any reason he would be the heir apparent for that spot. Again, not a Mckeown fanboy or Fleury hater. Just my interpretation.

Again, McKeown isn't signed, so this is all moot at this point. I think we'll be able to tell a lot by the details of McKeown's contract, assuming he does sign with us. Fleury got a one-year, one-way deal, so it's obvious what the team expects from him. Forsling signed his two-way qualifying offer, despite being waiver-eligible, so it's obvious we're not afraid of losing him. I suspect McKeown will come somewhere in the middle? But I guess it's possible they give him the Fleury treatment. Maybe that will scare off teams from claiming him on waivers if we try to send him down (if he's on a one-way deal)?

 

[RodTheBawd]

Again, McKeown isn't signed, so this is all moot at this point. I think we'll be able to tell a lot by the details of McKeown's contract, assuming he does sign with us. Fleury got a one-year, one-way deal, so it's obvious what the team expects from him. Forsling signed his two-way qualifying offer, despite being waiver-eligible, so it's obvious we're not afraid of losing him. I suspect McKeown will come somewhere in the middle? But I guess it's possible they give him the Fleury treatment. Maybe that will scare off teams from claiming him on waivers if we try to send him down (if he's on a one-way deal)?

But how much would we sign him to that would scare other teams more than it would scare us?

 

[My Special Purpose]

But how much would we sign him to that would scare other teams more than it would scare us?

Again, I don't *know* how the team values him. If they don't want to lose him to waivers, but think there's a chance we may have to send him down for a while, they may choose to sign him to a $750k one-way deal that would make it expensive for another team to claim him. But that's a big "if." I was just saying that the details of his contract, if and when he signs with us, will tell us a lot about how the team values him, and thinks of his role, since we have already signed two guys on opposite ends of the spectrum (Fleury, one-way, $850k guaranteed and Forsling, two-way, no guarantees).

 

[Ole Gil]

I'd be shocked beyond shocked if McKeown gets a 1 way deal. He might get one of those AAAA deals, with the 250k guaranteed. But even that, I'd be a little surprised.

 

[Anton Babchuk]

the hurricanes are absolutely not giving a player like roland mckeown 750k guaranteed so that teams will be scared to claim him off waivers. that is not happening.

i really don't get it. forsling was clearly willing to accept a two-way, but you think the team should have given him a one-way if they cared about losing him, and because they didn't they don't care if they lose him? maybe they just would rather pay him 70k instead of 700+k in the ahl if he doesn't make the team? we're already going to spend 80 million the nhl roster most likely, this team doesn't want to pay nhl salaries in the ahl on top of it. that seems like an anti-dundon thing to me. he's clearly fine with having a high budget overall, but doesn't want to overpay for specific roles. 700k+ for gustav forsling or roland mckeown in the ahl is something he would balk at. last year our highest paid ahler was mckegg at 250k, and nobody else made more than 100k.

i really don't think what mckeown inevitably getting a two-way tells us what the team thinks of him. i think it just tells us that he has no leverage as a guy who played 0 nhl games last year and has no arbitration rights. they're not going to give a one-way to a guy they can get signed to a two-way.

 

[My Special Purpose]

i really don't get it. forsling was clearly willing to accept a two-way, but you think the team should have given him a one-way if they cared about losing him, and because they didn't they don't care if they lose him?

That's exactly what I think. It happens all the time. Zykov was given a one-way deal in 2019-20 as part of a two-year contract signed last summer, and now Vegas is stuck with him at $675,000 this season when they're over the cap. Think they're glad they claimed him now?

700k+ for gustav forsling

I *never* suggested we do this for Forsling. And I only said we *could* do it for McKeown *if* the team didn't want to lose him. I've said this about a dozen times in this thread, but for some reason, it requires repeating *again*, but I have *no idea* how the team values McKeown and I do believe we'll get some clarity when he signs, either by the terms of the contract or by the comment Waddell makes in the press release. Any other interpretation is nothing more than putting words in my mouth.

i really don't think what mckeown inevitably getting a two-way tells us what the team thinks of him. i think it just tells us that he has no leverage as a guy who played 0 nhl games last year and has no arbitration rights. they're not going to give a one-way to a guy they can get signed to a two-way.

See Fleury, Haydn.

 

[spockBokk]

I personally think that Forsling just signed his QO. I’m not sure there was any strategy from team or player there. I guess there could have been some back and forth about the 2-way and guaranteed $$$, but in the end, I just think the dude just accepted his original offer, on the last day he could.

Mckeown is interesting, since he has no leverage but also needs a chance to play in the NHL. He’s not getting that here.

 

[Lempo]

I personally think that Forsling just signed his QO. I’m not sure there was any strategy from team or player there. I guess there could have been some back and forth about the 2-way and guaranteed $$$, but in the end, I just think the dude just accepted his original offer, on the last day he could.

Mckeown is interesting, since he has no leverage but also needs a chance to play in the NHL. He’s not getting that here.

He did. His previous season's salary was $832.5k, meaning his QO was to be at least 105 percent of that (660k to 1M tier). His new salary $874,125 is that to the t.

Gustav Forsling - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

That's total dickery btw. At least offer the man $875k.

 

[My Special Purpose]

He did. His previous season's salary was $832.5k, meaning his QO was to be at least 105 percent of that (660k to 1M tier). His new salary $874,125 is that to the t.

Gustav Forsling - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

That's total dickery btw. At least offer the man $875k.

But the question is about the two-way deal, which was evidently part of his QO? Is there a time limit as to what year a player can be in to have a two-way deal? We know it has nothing to do with waivers, but what *does* it have to do with?

 

[Lempo]

But the question is about the two-way deal, which was evidently part of his QO? Is there a time limit as to what year a player can be in to have a two-way deal? We know it has nothing to do with waivers, but what *does* it have to do with?

10.2 (a)(iii):

A Club's Qualifying Offer must be a One-Way Qualifying Offer if the applicable Player has: (A) actually played (excluding games missed for injury, illness or disability) 180 or more NHL Games in the previous three (3) NHL Seasons, (B) played at least sixty (60) NHL Games in the previous NHL Season, and (C) not cleared Waivers in the period between the 12th day prior to the commencement of the previous Regular Season and the end of a Club's previous Playing Season. For purposes hereof only, a goaltender is deemed to have played an NHL Game when he was dressed and on the bench as a backup. In all other cases, a Qualifying Offer may be a Two-Way Qualifying Offer.

He has played 38+41+43 NHL games. Not enough to warrant one-way QO.

 

[Roboturner913]

McKeown is the Patrick Brown of defensemen. You can call him up and know pretty much exactly what you're gonna get - not much upside, not much downside either.

It's a good sign that isn't worth quite as much as it used to be around here, when we were happy to have a very AHL caliber (in retrospect) 3rd pairing of Matt Tennyson and Klas Dahlbeck.

 

[My Special Purpose]

10.2 (a)(iii):



He has played 38+41+43 NHL games. Not enough to warrant one-way QO.

So, Fleury still qualified for a two-way QO, then. And so does McKeown.

 

[bleedgreen]

McKeown is stuck behind FOUR quality RD.

That’s why he hasn’t much of a chance yet. He looked good enough to be a bottom pair guy awhile ago. Fleury two years ago was a regular for us all season, this past year he spent much of the season in the minors. Did he regress? No. Depth and Rod’s preference to reward vets kept TVR in the way.

Roland is a jack of all trades dman who leans to the defensive side despite being a two way player imo. He’s big enough, he skates well, he’s physical when he needs to be, he can move the puck and occasionally jump in the play. Probably would be a bottom pair guy already on many teams.

Maybe he’s never going to be more, but it should come down to whoever has the best camp. Forsling muddies the waters even more.

 

[Lempo]

So, Fleury still qualified for a two-way QO, then. And so does McKeown.

Yup, both two-way QOs $875k and $787.5k respectively.

Fleury is a 7OA who signed at 18 and has spent full 5 years in the Entry-level System. Maybe that's currency in the NHL circles that gets you a one-way if you give up the $25k in NHL salary. It's not a bad deal if Canes plan to not send him down anyway.

Coincidence or not, he signed a day after the QO default expiration day (Jul 15).

 

[NotOpie]

Fleury is more than just adequate in my opinion. I'd characterize him as solid, mostly needing additional experience across multiple situations. Personally, I think he's still got room to grow and continue to develop. That said, he's a solid bottom pairing guy who might end up being a low end 2nd pairing guy.

The reason he wasn't trusted by Rod during the playoffs is simple. Rod leaned heavily on the guys he felt gave him the best chance to win. In his viewings Haydn was a 20 game guy, not the 60 some of game guy of the year before. Haydn has now been and Rod has seen a player who stepped up significantly during the AHL playoffs.

I'd be pretty surprised if Fleury doesn't outright earn the #6 out of camp. I think the bigger issue is going to be whether TVR is healthy or not for the start of the season (I tend to think it will be closer to Nov.). And will he even be able to play at a similar level to this past season. That opens the door for both Bean and McKeown in my opinion. Both either have played or currently play the right side. If Bean wins that battle we'll either try to sneak McKeown through waivers or potentially trade him for whatever we can get. It just feels like Forsling is in the between situation of a #7 defender.