Flyers Cap Team

[briererocks]

Simmonds played the entire season with injuries he probably should have sat for, and still scored 24 goals. He paced 30 goals in the four seasons before that, if he only regressed because of injuries I think that the 5 year contract would be worth it for at least the first 3 years. Lucic and Ladd were never consistent players like Simmonds, and weren't already in the system. The second power play unit issues that have plagued the team for years won't be fixed if we let go of guys that provide depth scoring in hopes that someone fills that position.

1. Simmonds contract would not start until next year and there are hints that his body may be already be breaking down.

2. Simmonds was never a good 5-5 player. His value comes primarily from his pp skills. Patrick has shown he can replace Simmonds and JVR is excellent on the pp. Hence, his primary value has diminished.

3, Flyers have tons of prospects who can probably offer similar to more value than Simmonds, including Ratcliffe and Allison. Those prospects are not 4 years away - more like 2 years away, which would be 1 year into Simmonds new contract.

It really does not make sense to sign Simmonds.

 

[TheKingPin]

It’s a great situation. A lot of ways it could go too. It would make sense to get a guy like EK. I was against it from other views but with this I think it’s a good move. Otherwise maybe just hold on to th cap. No good team got off without dealing with cap issues. I also don’t think they were good bc they spent to the cap. Just keep being smart.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Simmonds wasn’t really that good in 2016-2017 either when he wasn’t hurt. He produced more like a fourth liner outside of the PP there too despite getting used as a top six forward. He just had more PP production that year compared to last year to make his total production look better.

If you take your heart out of it there’s really not many good reasons to bring him back after this year at the very likely expensive cost to do so on the downside of his career.

 

[Tripod]

The biggest elephant in the room with Simmonds and his contract isn't term or price or age.......it's that they just don't need him on the ice. His value has diminished heavily for this team given other, better players in similar roles. Another team, maybe not the case. But here?

If "Wayne Simmonds," with all the ooey gooey intangible goodness that comes with that name, was named "Brayden Schenn," putting up the exact same numbers as a soon to be 31 year old UFA, it wouldn't even be a conversation really.

Exactly.

We have no reason to sign our 3rd line RW to a 6+ million dollar deal that starts at the age of 31....blocking every single RW that we have drafted. We added JVR for free...and can afford to have both this season then lose Simmonds for nothing to bridge to 2019/20 when all we need is 1 kid to step up to be a 3rd liner. Not a huge ask.

Love the guy, and we got greta value out of him. Let someone else that NEEDS him, overpay for his declining years.

 

[Tripod]

If we do make a trade, I say it's after camp and we see what happens with Frost. If he does not make the team, go out and try and find a stopgap. We have more than enough depth guys to do it.

 

[deadhead]

I think Hextall may be planning for Simmonds to play out his contract, it's not like there's a huge opportunity cost, maybe a late 1st rd pick, but that's what it would cost at the TDL to add a player like Simmonds, so let him play the whole year instead of paying for someone similar for two months. Sometimes it makes more sense to keep a player instead of adding another asset to a crowded roster (if someone offered a potential top 10 pick or young forward, that's a different matter)

The real problem comes in 2019, when the Flyers don't know who'll be ready to step into the bottom six:
Frost - 3C, book it Danno
Vorobvev - 4C, this is pretty close to a sure thing
Laughton LW
Lindblom LW/RW
NAK RW

Now comes the hard part, who's your 6th forward?
Rubtsov LW/C, one year of AHL
Ratcliffe LW, straight out of juniors?
Farabee LW, O'Brien RW, one year of college
Allison, Laczynski, college juniors straight to the NHL?

Do they let both Raffl and Simmonds walk after this season?

The excess cap room the next 2-3 years is why Hextall won't buy out Lehtera, Weise or MacDonald, he'd rather pay out their deals, even if it means sending them to the AHL or waiving them, than extending the dead money past 2019-20.

 

[Magua]

I think it’s also easier for Hextall to convince the locker room and fans that Simmonds just priced himself out as a free agent. Trading him looks bad from his vantage point. I don’t think he has it in him.

 

[Cootsfanclub]

1. Simmonds contract would not start until next year and there are hints that his body may be already be breaking down.

2. Simmonds was never a good 5-5 player. His value comes primarily from his pp skills. Patrick has shown he can replace Simmonds and JVR is excellent on the pp. Hence, his primary value has diminished.

3, Flyers have tons of prospects who can probably offer similar to more value than Simmonds, including Ratcliffe and Allison. Those prospects are not 4 years away - more like 2 years away, which would be 1 year into Simmonds new contract.

It really does not make sense to sign Simmonds.

1. I think next season determines this, I'm fine with letting him walk if he does show more signs of injury.

2. I would rather have two good power play units than one.

3. Voracek, JVR, and Giroux are the only surefire top 6 wingers signed past this season. Konecny rounds out that group but after that we really only have Lindblom for the bottom six. I think 19-20 is the first year for the team to really contend and letting a 30 goal forward walk would really hurt that.

By the time a $7 million Simmonds becomes a liability we'd have Lehtera, Weise, and Macdonald off the books ($12.5 m). If anything he'd be a decent piece for the expansion draft coming up.

 

[Tripod]

I think Hextall may be planning for Simmonds to play out his contract, it's not like there's a huge opportunity cost, maybe a late 1st rd pick, but that's what it would cost at the TDL to add a player like Simmonds, so let him play the whole year instead of paying for someone similar for two months. Sometimes it makes more sense to keep a player instead of adding another asset to a crowded roster (if someone offered a potential top 10 pick or young forward, that's a different matter)

The real problem comes in 2019, when the Flyers don't know who'll be ready to step into the bottom six:
Frost - 3C, book it Danno
Vorobvev - 4C, this is pretty close to a sure thing
Laughton LW
Lindblom LW/RW
NAK RW

Now comes the hard part, who's your 6th forward?
Rubtsov LW/C, one year of AHL
Ratcliffe LW, straight out of juniors?
Farabee LW, O'Brien RW, one year of college
Allison, Laczynski, college juniors straight to the NHL?

Do they let both Raffl and Simmonds walk after this season?

The excess cap room the next 2-3 years is why Hextall won't buy out Lehtera, Weise or MacDonald, he'd rather pay out their deals, even if it means sending them to the AHL or waiving them, than extending the dead money past 2019-20.

It will be Allison...on the 3rd line. Join the Phantoms at the end on next season, then Philly the following year.

Remember, he was 3rd in College scoring when he got hurt....tied with Borgstrom who most Panthers fans are expecting to make the team this year.

Side note...Laczynski was 2nd in college points at that time!

 

[Ghosts Beer]

It doesn’t make sense to trade Simmonds barring a ridiculous offer or if somehow they’re out of contention at the deadline.

Give the team their best chance to compete, & consider Simmonds the equivalent of a deadline rental you don’t have to trade anything for & get for a full season.

 

[briererocks]

1. I think next season determines this, I'm fine with letting him walk if he does show more signs of injury.

2. I would rather have two good power play units than one.

3. Voracek, JVR, and Giroux are the only surefire top 6 wingers signed past this season. Konecny rounds out that group but after that we really only have Lindblom for the bottom six. I think 19-20 is the first year for the team to really contend and letting a 30 goal forward walk would really hurt that.

By the time a $7 million Simmonds becomes a liability we'd have Lehtera, Weise, and Macdonald off the books ($12.5 m). If anything he'd be a decent piece for the expansion draft coming up.

The flyer top 6 players are very very solid (konency is a top line player). If we can add a top line winger to our third line to play with frost such as Panarin or Skinner then we would have 3 very dangerous lines with insane depth.

Simmonds is a very good player but he is older and excels most at the pp . As someone else said, it does not make sense to pay 6mm+ for a third line winger who is arguably a pp specialist .

 

[Rebels57]

I guess this is now another Simmonds thread.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I mean until a resolution is made one way or another Simmonds’ future is going to be a prevalent topic.

 

[kostas]

I would say that there is no way the flyers don't sign simmonds. it's just a matter of how much money and how long the contract will be. It wouldn't surprise me if he got a nice 4 year contract at 5 million per season. I'm sure simmonds would take less to stay in philly, and i think he is a heart and soul guy that you really don't want leaving town.

 

[Cootsfanclub]

The flyer top 6 players are very very solid (konency is a top line player). If we can add a top line winger to our third line to play with frost such as Panarin or Skinner then we would have 3 very dangerous lines with insane depth.

Simmonds is a very good player but he is older and excels most at the pp . As someone else said, it does not make sense to pay 6mm+ for a third line winger who is arguably a pp specialist .

I'd rather have Simmonds than Skinner. Panarin is great but I don't think he's signing here. Simmonds as a $7m 3rd line winger that can score 30 goals would be a luxury, one that the team can finally afford.

 

[mdm815]

Like I’ve said before, it’s crazy, but how crazy would it be to offer him 10x2. We have the space. 2 years is ideal. It’s a lot of money up front for him, that could be 13m year one and 7 in year two. I really doubt something like this would ever happen, but it depends on him. Does he want to get paid and play a long time, or can you just entice him w the payday and another crack at UFA in 2 years.

 

[Striiker]

I think it’s also easier for Hextall to convince the locker room and fans that Simmonds just priced himself out as a free agent. Trading him looks bad from his vantage point. I don’t think he has it in him.

Yeah, at this point I'd be pretty shocked if he's traded and pretty disappointed if he's re-signed. I don't doubt that he can still be a productive player for a few years, but to do that he'd have to be on the 1st PP and that's simply no longer a need for us. We already have his replacement (upgrade?) on the roster and I'm more interested in seeing how Patrick does in that spot.

I get people saying "but then we lose Simmonds for nothing", but I think you can rationalize that loss in return value by looking at it as a full year version of a trade deadline addition. What we'd likely get for Simmonds is what we're giving up to keep him, except for a full year instead of a couple weeks.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

Even if you want to say Simmonds isn’t in a decline. A usage drop is still going to have great effect on his numbers. He’s not scoring 30 goals if he’s primarily playing third line & second PP unit roles. Even at his best he needed to be propped up just to get average 5v5 results (top six role with stronger 5v5 players). As for the second PP unit you’re going to see a drop regardless going from first to second unit even if you have the best one-two punch in the league which the Flyers clearly don’t. He’s a goal scoring net front guy. He’s not turning the tide there as long as the guys on the perimeter still suck. He got replaced last year by Patrick because Patrick offered much more balance in goal scoring & play making ability in that spot than Simmonds does.

 

[deadhead]

Don't want Panarin at his UFA price, because we're going to have fast, scoring 3rd line LWs at a fraction of his cost.
He's not going to replace Giroux for a couple years, he's not going to go to RW and replace TK or Voracek, and we just signed JVR, who gives us the big shooting LW who can play PP1. So while he's a good player, on this team he'd be a luxury (at $10-11M a year for 7 years).
With the talented young wingers who'll be competing for spots on the 3rd and 4th lines the next 3-4 years, the only way a high priced forward makes sense is to move Giroux (which ain't happening) or Voracek (which is unlikely).

Don't want Skinner at all, I don't think in two years he'll be able to beat out Ratcliffe/Farabee/Rubtsov/Laughton at LW.

A high priced RHD is a possibility, but you have to deal with the ED as well, you already have to expose Sanheim or Myers or only protect 4 forwards.
Add a D-man and you have to expose both, so you might want to wait a year and see how they develop.

 

[BringBackHakstol]

Trading him for long term futures was the obvious choice and im really dissapointed that it wasn't done

 

[Captain Dave Poulin]

Simmonds wasn’t really that good in 2016-2017 either when he wasn’t hurt. He produced more like a fourth liner outside of the PP there too despite getting used as a top six forward. He just had more PP production that year compared to last year to make his total production look better.

If you take your heart out of it there’s really not many good reasons to bring him back after this year at the very likely expensive cost to do so on the downside of his career.

Nailed it.

 

[Tripod]

unlikely).

Don't want Skinner at all, I don't think in two years he'll be able to beat out Ratcliffe/Farabee/Rubtsov/Laughton at LW.

It's amazing how much you overvalue certain prospects...until you see how Gak uses them.

You honestly think in 2 years one of these guys will be a 50+ point guy? Come on.

And few, I don't want Skinner now either because we added JVR instead. But to say they will be better than Skinner is dumb.

 

[Magua]

until you see how Gak uses them.

Accurate typo.

 

[deadhead]

It's amazing how much you overvalue certain prospects...until you see how Gak uses them.

You honestly think in 2 years one of these guys will be a 50+ point guy? Come on.

And few, I don't want Skinner now either because we added JVR instead. But to say they will be better than Skinner is dumb.

No, it's not dumb.

1) Is TK a 50 point player? We're not talking projecting late round picks, we're talking Lindblom (top forward in SHL at age 20), Farabee #14, Ratcliffe #35 (Ron liked him so much he traded up), Rubtsov #22, Laughton #20 who may have limitations at center but has potential at LW. Not all of them will pan out, but a couple should. And that's the key, there is safety in numbers, we have so many numbers we're bound to hit the "hockey lottery."

2) Skinner has been solid, last three years (23-25), 2.03 pp/60, Corsi 52.42, CorsiRel -0.09, xGF 52.12, xGFrel +1.03, but he's not an elite winger.
He's averaged 14 minutes 5x5 in Carolina, but only 3.82 pp/60 on the PP, so in Philly he'd be a 12 minute 5x5%, PP2 player (or 14-15 minutes a night total).
Not because he's a bad player, but he's not beating out Giroux and JVR. And one of those four guys will provide similar production at a fraction of the cost on the 3rd line. Because here Skinner is a 30-35 ES wing with 5-10 on the PP, or 35-45 points, not 50+. How many points would say Laughton give you as Frost's LW? Or Lindblom?

That's really the issue going forward, with the depth Ron has built, either a FA has to be elite (and worthy of moving a big salary to make room for him), or at a position of need - but going forward, what position of need will we probably (because crap happens) have?

 

[Appleyard]

I mean, for me it comes down to this:

1. Simmonds will be 31 by the time his next contract starts.

2. Patrick showed last season he could do as good a job on PP1.

3. This is the second year in a row (2016-17 and 2017-18) that Simmonds played at ~3rd line level offensively at 5v5, after being good 2nd line level for his previous years here.


Despite how unique he is he is pretty replaceable ON ice. Patrick to PP1 and a 3rd line guy who is better defensively and can get ~30 EV points and the team gets better, younger and cheaper.