Prospect Info: Flyers actual 2013 draft rankings

[Random Forest]

The chance of finding an NHL player is pretty slim after the 2nd round, but the chance of finding one the the 3rd round are over double that in the 5th or 6th. That is a sizable difference.

But the odds are still heavily against you which is all that really matters.

We'll have to agree to disagree about draft philosophy. To me it makes no sense to draft a player that you can find literally right now for league minimum if you wanted. How would you rather spend your dollar, at the claw machine with the iphone 5 in it or at the play til you win one with penny candy in it?

The problem is that you see Goulbourne's upside as a dime a dozen player in the NHL. But if he becomes a solid defensive, energy, heart and soul player who can grind and play the PK (say a Max Talbot), then he is not exactly a dime a dozen player. Hell, if he actually does become "Rinaldo 2.0", then he's still not exactly a dime a dozen player.

And I'd be okay with spending some time at the candy machine as long as we are not spending ALL of our time at that machine. We've gone fishing for the iPhone 5 with guys like Cousins, Gostisbehere, and MAB. It's not bad to end up with a gum ball from the candy machine every once in a while instead of nothing at the claw machine.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

I don't know if I would call Gustafsson a top 4 defender right now but I do believe he's shown enough to be given a roster spot at this point.

It's a numbers game & I'm more comfortable rolling with Gustafsson in our bottom pairing than the often injured & expensive Meszaros.

 

[Beef Invictus]

Yeah...the difference between Mez and Gus isn't anywhere close to 3ish million dollars, especially since Gus looks like he's surpassed Mez. That's a difference of another roster player.

 

[Snotbubbles]

The problem is that you see Goulbourne's upside as a dime a dozen player in the NHL. But if he becomes a solid defensive, energy, heart and soul player who can grind and play the PK (say a Max Talbot), then he is not exactly a dime a dozen player. Hell, if he actually does become "Rinaldo 2.0", then he's still not exactly a dime a dozen player.

According to Holmgren, Goulbourne is a Zac Rinaldo 2.0, not a Max Talbot. Not an Ian Laperriere. Zac Rinaldo. Rinaldo is a dime a dozen player energy player.

 

[Appleyard]

The way I see it is that Mez tops is a no. 4, dynamic 35 point guy who can be dynamite on the powerplay... who is questionable defensively due to positioning and give-aways.(I love his hitting, boardplay... but he has always put himself in stupid places, tried to go past one man too many, try a home run breakout when an easy outlet is on.) We know this from over 500 games in the NHL... where apart from 1 down year (last in Tampa) he has been very consistent.

Gus's seems to be (at 'par' per-say) a 20-25 point player who is very solid positionally and mentally, but subpar physically (though he does not shy away from corners, even when he knows a hit is coming... which I like.) I would say 4/5 from his current play (taking into account his worst and best.)

So Mez is more explosive... Gus better defensively, but with an unknown ceiling, he does have great tools to be an offensive player.

I would therefore say they were pretty even in ability/question-marks... and therefore it comes down to caphit, and for what he does Mez is overpaid. I do get DFF what you say on the caphit front... if Mez fits and is better, play him, I am all for that. (Though I would like us to be able to bank some... and Mez does not let us do that.) But I do think they are very even in ability.

PS. I am a big Mez fan... I think he is an exciting player who has the skill set to be something very special (like Coburn) but just has never put it all together.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Not offense? Then why did the team produce at a higher rate with Gus on the ice over Mez of late? As for the other stats...well, we've been over this. We've shown you the horde of stats where Gus outperforms Mez. Do you really need to see them again? It's not like they've changed yet.

Which stats are they? Because I think last time we looked at this the stats were either very close, or Mez had the better stats. Maybe direct me to these stats again or just to the post because I may be remembering it differently (not being sarcastic, I really don't remember which stats you are talking about).

To be sure, in the start Gus didn't outperform Mez. However, Gus has consistently trended upwards to the points where he HAS outperformed him over the last 30 games. If you're concerned about him not being top 4 capable during his first 15-20 games in the league then you're looking at this wrong...you should be looking at what he is now.

But that is what I am talking about. It has only been 30 games. You are going to throw away Mez's entire body of work based on the last 30 games of his 500+ game career, while at the same time giving the spot to Gus based on 30 of his first 60 games? It just seems insane to me do that. I know there is risk of injury with Mez, which is why I have consistently prefaced my statements in this argument with Mez being healthy. If he is not healthy, I would go with Gus. If both were free agents, I would go with Gus. But if both are healthy and both are signed, I am not going to throw out an entire career based on the last 30 games.

If Gus wins the spot in camp, great. I am not saying he sucks. I am not saying he shoudn't be given the chance. I am simply saying that if both are healthy, I am going to go with the 500+ game veteran over the 60 game young guy. If Gus earns the spot, it is his. But you don't earn a spot in 60 mediocre games (I say mediocre because overall that is how it has been...some good games, some not so good games...they haven't all been top 4 and they haven't all been better than Mez), just like you don't lose a spot in 60 mediocre games.

EDIT: I'd also like to point out that while Gus is younger, it really isn't by that much. Gus will be 25 this season, Mez will be 28. A little less than three years apart.

 

[Beef Invictus]

No. I'm not throwing Mez out based on 30 games. I'm throwing him out based on two seasons of constant injury, much of it from routine wear and tear resulting in some major surgeries. I'm also basing it on a younger guy who's still growing, for 1/4 of the cap hit, who has steadily shown he is growing into a roster spot.

Keeping Mez and his cap hit over Gus on the gamble that he won't get hurt again just isn't worthwhile. Especially not with the current cap situation.

Sometimes you have to just let a vet go in favor of someone you've developed. That's just the reality of the cap era. We are spending a disproportionate amount on D as it is. We have a guy who's shown he can function at Mez's level for much cheaper. Meanwhile, Mez has shown he might be going the way of Betts before long. I would be comfortable with Homer gambling on Gus over Mez. Don't get me wrong, I think both are gambles; but I'm gonna go ahead and go with the one who costs significantly less. The difference between the two isn't great enough to go with Mez in my opinion.

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

But that is what I am talking about. It has only been 30 games. You are going to throw away Mez's entire body of work based on the last 30 games of his 500+ game career, while at the same time giving the spot to Gus based on 30 of his first 60 games? It just seems insane to me do that. I know there is risk of injury with Mez, which is why I have consistently prefaced my statements in this argument with Mez being healthy. If he is not healthy, I would go with Gus. If both were free agents, I would go with Gus. But if both are healthy and both are signed, I am not going to throw out an entire career based on the last 30 games.

If Gus wins the spot in camp, great. I am not saying he sucks. I am not saying he shoudn't be given the chance. I am simply saying that if both are healthy, I am going to go with the 500+ game veteran over the 60 game young guy. If Gus earns the spot, it is his. But you don't earn a spot in 60 mediocre games (I say mediocre because overall that is how it has been...some good games, some not so good games...they haven't all been top 4 and they haven't all been better than Mez), just like you don't lose a spot in 60 mediocre games.

You're missing one major detail & that is both players cap hits, Mez cost you $4M & Gus cost you $1M for next year. On a team that needs some cap space, it's a no brainer to ditch Mez over Gus at this point.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

No. I'm not throwing Mez out based on 30 games. I'm throwing him out based on two seasons of constant injury, much of it from routine wear and tear resulting in some major surgeries. I'm also basing it on a younger guy who's still growing, for 1/4 of the cap hit, who has steadily shown he is growing into a roster spot.

Keeping Mez and his cap hit over Gus on the gamble that he won't get hurt again just isn't worthwhile. Especially not with the current cap situation.

Sometimes you have to just let a vet go in favor of someone you've developed. That's just the reality of the cap era. We are spending a disproportionate amount on D as it is. We have a guy who's shown he can function at Mez's level for much cheaper. Meanwhile, Mez has shown he might be going the way of Betts before long. I would be comfortable with Homer gambling on Gus over Mez. Don't get me wrong, I think both are gambles; but I'm gonna go ahead and go with the one who costs significantly less. The difference between the two isn't great enough to go with Mez in my opinion.

You're missing one major detail & that is both players cap hits, Mez cost you $4M & Gus cost you $1M for next year. On a team that needs some cap space, it's a no brainer to ditch Mez over Gus at this point.

I think you are both missing my points. I am 100% in favor of trading Mez. I have been saying that from the beginning. I wanted to trade him at the draft and I want to trade him now, for many of the reasons you are talking about. He is injury prone and way too expensive. I'm not saying we should trade Gus or that I don't want to trade Mez. I do want to trade Mez. The Flyers need caproom and I think Mez could get a mid round pick in return. That being said, if we can't do that and we have them both on the roster, I'm not going bench Mez just because Gus is younger and cheaper. If both are on the roster come training camp, and both are healthy, Mez is ahead of Gus on the depth chart in my mind. It is his spot to lose. I'm not saying Gus sucks, I'm not saying he shouldn't be considered. If he outplays Mez in camp. Great. I want the best player to play. Not the youngest. Not the best cap hit. The best player. In my mind, that is Mez. Once again, if he is not healthy, or if Gus outplays him, then give the spot to Gus. If we were talking about who I would sign as a UFA, it would be Gus every day of the week because of the injuries and the cap. But if they are both healthy and both on the roster, Gus is behind Mez on the depth chart.

 

[Beef Invictus]

You have to consider injury history and cap hit though. This isn't a vacuum. The difference between the two simply isn't enough for Mez to overcome his medical history and cap hit.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

You have to consider injury history and cap hit though. This isn't a vacuum. The difference between the two simply isn't enough for Mez to overcome his medical history and cap hit.

But again, I'm not talking about keeping Mez over Gus or saying I don't want to trade him. If both are on the team and under the cap, cap hits are irrelevant. If Mez is making $8 million or if Mez is making $800k, he is still better. He may get injured, yes. I agree. But that doesn't mean you don't play him. If he is healthy, play him. If he gets hurt, Gus plays. If not, Mez plays the full 82 and Gus fills in when other players go down or when he proves he is better he will take over for Mez.

 

[Beef Invictus]

...he's already shown he's as good if not marginally better. And he's far cheaper.


The problem with Mez is that, just because he's healthy at the start of the season doesn't mean he's going to stay that way. He's most effective when he's playing physically. It's a big part of his game. Yet, he's already accumulated a shoulder injury while throwing a pretty routine hit. And then there's the past shoulder injuries and the back injury. It's been a long time since he's played a full season or even been at 100%. That's not worth 4 million for a depth dman. I don't see any way to justify that.

Edit: What exactly has Mez done in the last two years that warrants keeping him with our current cap and roster situation?

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

...he's already shown he's as good if not marginally better. And he's far cheaper.


The problem with Mez is that, just because he's healthy at the start of the season doesn't mean he's going to stay that way. He's most effective when he's playing physically. It's a big part of his game. Yet, he's already accumulated a shoulder injury while throwing a pretty routine hit. And then there's the past shoulder injuries and the back injury. It's been a long time since he's played a full season or even been at 100%. That's not worth 4 million for a depth dman. I don't see any way to justify that.

You clearly aren't grapsing what I am saying so I am just going to stop.

 

[Beef Invictus]

You clearly aren't grapsing what I am saying so I am just going to stop.

You said if both are healthy you go with Mez. I don't. Gus is pretty much his equal if not slightly better now, and cheaper, and with a much better health record. Gus is perfectly capable of filling Mez's suspected role for a lower and far more efficient cost and with reason to believe he can at least stay healthy.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

You said if both are healthy you go with Mez. I don't. Gus is pretty much his equal if not slightly better now, and cheaper, and with a much better health record. Gus is perfectly capable of filling Mez's suspected role for a lower and far more efficient cost and with reason to believe he can at least stay healthy.

The discussion of injuries and cap hits are irrelevant. If both players are healthy and on the team, you don't play one over the other because of a contract or a possible injury.

You think Gus is better, I don't. That's as far as it goes. The discussion of cap hits and injuries don't add to the conversation.

 

[Random Forest]

According to Holmgren, Goulbourne is a Zac Rinaldo 2.0, not a Max Talbot. Not an Ian Laperriere. Zac Rinaldo. Rinaldo is a dime a dozen player energy player.

First of all, Zac Rinaldo is not a dime a dozen player. I'm not his biggest fan, but there are few players who bring to the table what Rinaldo has.

Second of all, like others have mentioned, Holmgren did a disservice to Goulbourne by comparing him to Rinaldo. Goulbourne's greatest strength (from all I have read on him) is that he brings a tremendous amount of heart. If he can translate his defensive and physical games to the NHL level, he will be more than a dime a dozen player. Just because Holmgren called him Z2.0 does not change Goulbourne's skill set.

 

[Snotbubbles]

First of all, Zac Rinaldo is not a dime a dozen player. I'm not his biggest fan, but there are few players who bring to the table what Rinaldo has.

Second of all, like others have mentioned, Holmgren did a disservice to Goulbourne by comparing him to Rinaldo. Goulbourne's greatest strength (from all I have read on him) is that he brings a tremendous amount of heart. If he can translate his defensive and physical games to the NHL level, he will be more than a dime a dozen player. Just because Holmgren called him Z2.0 does not change Goulbourne's skill set.

Rinaldo plays 8 minutes a game. He's an energy player, nothing more. He doesn't do anything else. He doesn't have an offensive game. He doesn't kill penalties. Sometimes he fights.

Goulbourne will be the same type player.

 

[Random Forest]

Rinaldo plays 8 minutes a game. He's an energy player, nothing more. He doesn't do anything else. He doesn't have an offensive game. He doesn't kill penalties. Sometimes he fights.

And in those eight minutes per game, he managed to have the second best hits/game ratio in the entire league. That's not exactly "dime a dozen".

Dime a dozen means a player who doesn't really do anything that someone else can't do.

I understand we could replace Rinaldo and likely not lose much of a step, but you don't find players like him to be plentiful around the league.

Goulbourne will be the same type player.

And if he is, then we will be fortunate to have converted a third round pick into an NHL player.

But that's going on nothing more than a passing comment by Holmgren.

Why not go by what ISS had to say about him?

International Scouting Service comments on Goulbourne are:
- Gritty, hard working
- Good skater
- Willing to go through a wall
- Works hard up and down the ice
- Teammates love him
- Willingness to block shots
- Great character leader
- Warrior
- Tough and respected

So what if Holmgren had said "Lappy 2.0" like this scouting report suggests? How would you feel about the pick then?

 

[Beef Invictus]

The discussion of injuries and cap hits are irrelevant. If both players are healthy and on the team, you don't play one over the other because of a contract or a possible injury.

You think Gus is better, I don't. That's as far as it goes. The discussion of cap hits and injuries don't add to the conversation.

But they do. They're absolutely integral to the conversation. This is like the Bryzgalov debate where people wanted to ignore his cap hit as a factor. You can't really do that. Players are tied to their cap hits.

When two players are pretty much equal, it's smarter to go with the cheaper one.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

But they do. They're absolutely integral to the conversation. This is like the Bryzgalov debate where people wanted to ignore his cap hit as a factor. You can't really do that. Players are tied to their cap hits.

When two players are pretty much equal, it's smarter to go with the cheaper one.

If you are talking about it in terms of signing a player or trading one player and keeping another, then yes, I would agree. Otherwise you go with the better player. I don't think Mez and Gus are equals, I think Mez is better. That's why I'm not factoring in the cap hits.

 

[Beef Invictus]

If you are talking about it in terms of signing a player or trading one player and keeping another, then yes, I would agree. Otherwise you go with the better player. I don't think Mez and Gus are equals, I think Mez is better. That's why I'm not factoring in the cap hits.

I think we've hit the point where we can go back and quote old posts to each other as replies to "new" posts

 

[Snotbubbles]

And in those eight minutes per game, he managed to have the second best hits/game ratio in the entire league. That's not exactly "dime a dozen".

Dime a dozen means a player who doesn't really do anything that someone else can't do.

I understand we could replace Rinaldo and likely not lose much of a step, but you don't find players like him to be plentiful around the league.



And if he is, then we will be fortunate to have converted a third round pick into an NHL player.

But that's going on nothing more than a passing comment by Holmgren.

Why not go by what ISS had to say about him?



So what if Holmgren had said "Lappy 2.0" like this scouting report suggests? How would you feel about the pick then?

Hits/game? Adam Hall is one of the top faceoff guys in the league, he's still a dime a dozen player. Just because you excel at a certain facet of the game doesn't make you inexpendable. Rinaldo is an energy guy, those guys are easily replaced.

As far as Goulbourne, I keep hearing people try and say Lappy 2.0 or Talbot 2.0. Where are people drawing that comparison? Because he's a tough, team guy? Lappy (and Talbot) are so much more than tough team guys. They are/were good Pkers with solid offensive skill. Go look at Lappy's junior numbers, Goulbourne isn't even close to being a comparable. Same thing with Talbot. Light years ahead offensively. Goulbourne isn't going to bring anything to the table offensively. Rinaldo was an apt comparison. A guy who isn't gonna do anything offensively but will be a good tough team guy who will drop the gloves now and then and create some energy.

 

[Snotbubbles]

If you are talking about it in terms of signing a player or trading one player and keeping another, then yes, I would agree. Otherwise you go with the better player. I don't think Mez and Gus are equals, I think Mez is better. That's why I'm not factoring in the cap hits.

I'm with DFF on this one. I think Mez is better than Gus. If you're gonna get rid of Mez for cap space, then you better use the cap space to bring in an upgrade at another position. Then once Grossmann goes down again (and it will happen), then you better hope Gus can handle top 4 5v 5 minutes because Streit sure as heck couldn't.

 

[Curufinwe]

We need the cap space so Pronger doesn't have to go on LTIR right away.

Hopefully Rinaldo will get some PK time this year.

 

[RinaldoZac]

We need the cap space so Pronger doesn't have to go on LTIR right away.

Hopefully Rinaldo will get some PK time this year.

Lavi would be stupid not to give Rhino PK time. I guarentee you he is killing Goulbournes stupid penalties this preseason