Prospect Info: Flyers actual 2013 draft rankings

[JojoTheWhale]

Finn or not, I'd be floored if the current staff was lower than consensus on Barkov. I'd expect something more like 2nd or 3rd.

 

[Magua]

Well, Dennis Patterson did have the title of head scout at the time. Hextall has pretty obviously pushed him to the side. He used to sit right next to the big boys at the draft table. In 2017 he was sitting in no mans land. This past draft I didn't even see him. The OHL was supposedly his bread and butter. Hexy hired a new OHL guy pretty quickly as well.

I mean Pryor has been director of scouting the entire time, so that hasn't changed. I'm not really sure what to make of moving a few spots over in the table, though yes, it makes one wonder from an optics standpoint. I just looked and Greig and Hearty are next to Pryor. It's hard to decipher who does what, but those two haven't exactly been killing it from their home regions, before or after Hextall. I'm not sure those two are who you want to hang your hat on for the recent draft success. I've spoken on this subject before.

Finn or not, I'd be floored if the current staff was lower than consensus on Barkov. I'd expect something more like 2nd or 3rd.

The Mueller at #7, who Greig even advocated for at #6, and Gauthier at #13 make me die a little inside.

 

[deadhead]

The funny part, Goul did make it to the NHL.

If the Flyers weren't so deep, he'd have a chance to carve out a PEB type role, he can skate and hit, and isn't as dumb as Rinaldo.
But when you have guys like Sushko and Twarynski and NAK who can skate, forecheck and actually score, there isn't much of a place for an offensive cipher like Goul.

 

[Beef Invictus]

That list looks no better looking at it 5 years later. Good god. Look at that top 15 especially. These are the same scouts in the CHL, mind you, as we have now. Either they still have some eek rankings that just never materialize (which is always true to some degree) and/or Hextall has whipped them into shape some. Then again, their WHL and Q drafting, outside of no brainer high picks, has generally either evaporated or done poorer than other leagues. But it's not like they don't cross-over scout too. With how they draft now, I just have a hard time seeing them form that list in 2018, but who knows?

I don't know what direction a GM gives, but I would presume he has asked them to emphasize different skills in their evaluations?

 

[FLYguy3911]

And he openly states that even 7th round picks are "freaking important" and what not. Holmgren was obviously the exact opposite.

Tbf Hextall has traded 7th round picks in consecutive drafts for no additional compensation.

 

[Magua]

I don't know what direction a GM gives, but I would presume he has asked them to emphasize different skills in their evaluations?

Clearly Hextall does place a lot of value on mid-late round picks hitting, and not in an AHL lifer sense. He emphasizes it. But I also don't understand what the scouts were doing before that. Good players are good players; the entire point of scouting is to find the best players. How do you need to be steered towards that?

Hextall: "We need you to find more high IQ, skilled players."

Scouts: "Ohhhhhhh, okkkkkkay. Gotcha, boss. Sorry about that! I thought we were looking for dumb, low skilled players. Our mistake."

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Patterson is that dreaded loud, veteran scout who doesn’t know what he’s doing & talks over younger scouts. Not that Greig or Hearty have been great. I tend to think Hextall & Pryor have a ton of input & don’t defer as much as others might.

 

[Stizzle]

Clearly Hextall does place a lot of value on mid-late round picks hitting, and not in an AHL lifer sense. He emphasizes it. But I also don't understand what the scouts were doing before that. Good players are good players; the entire point of scouting is to find the best players. How do you need to be steered towards that?

Hextall: "We need you to find more high IQ, skilled players."

Scouts: "Ohhhhhhh, okkkkkkay. Gotcha, boss. Sorry about that! I thought we were looking for dumb, low skilled players. Our mistake."

It's sad, but when some of Holmgren's drafts included guys like Klotz, Mathers, Rinaldo, and Goulbourne maybe the scouts really did need some direction. Also a wasted nepotism pick like Luuko.

 

[deadhead]

Clearly Hextall does place a lot of value on mid-late round picks hitting, and not in an AHL lifer sense. He emphasizes it. But I also don't understand what the scouts were doing before that. Good players are good players; the entire point of scouting is to find the best players. How do you need to be steered towards that?

Hextall: "We need you to find more high IQ, skilled players."

Scouts: "Ohhhhhhh, okkkkkkay. Gotcha, boss. Sorry about that! I thought we were looking for dumb, low skilled players. Our mistake."

Outside of a few uber-talents, "best player" is often situational, depending on the scheme and philosophy.
So if Holmgren wanted physical players, then the scouts would prioritize those qualities, or straight line speed, or other such skills.

Frankly, I don't think Holmgren thought the draft was that important, he saw trades and free agency as the avenue to build a club.

"He returned to Philadelphia during the 1995–96 season as the Director of Pro Scouting. He was named the Director of Player Personnel following the 1996–97 season and was named Assistant General Manager following the 1998–99 season. He served in that position under General Manager Bobby Clarke until Clarke resigned a month into the 2006–07 season, at which time Holmgren was named General Manager of the club. "

He ran the 2017-2013 drafts:
2007: JVR (LW) #2, Marshall (D) #41, Klotz (LW) #66 [Maroon #161]
2008: Sbisa (D) #19, Bourdon (D) #67, Deserres G #84 [Rinaldo #178]
2009: Morrison G #81, Bertlisson (D) #87
2010: Chaput (C) #89 [McGinn (LW) #119]
2011: Couts (C) #8, Cousins (C) #66
2012: Laughton (C) #20, Stolarz (G) #45, Ghost (D) #78 [Leier #117, Willcox #145]
2013: Morin (D) #11, Hagg (D) #41, Goul (LW) #72
17 picks in the top 100 in 7 years (after pick 100, drafts tend to be more variable as it becomes a crapshoot)
Hextall has 20 picks in the top 100 in 5 years.

Holmgren liked defense, size and physical play (Klotz, Rinaldo, Goul)
Even JVR and Maroon were scoring forwards with size. -
Couts, Laughton had defensive reputations, Cousins was "feisty."
Ghost was the only undersized, skill player in 7 years.

Hextall seems to have a very different philosophy
1) while he shies away from small players (projected to be under 185 lbs), he's not obsessed with size and physicality
2) he places a big stress on character, basically hockey IQ, work ethic and a commitment to two way play
3) skill over speed, that is, Ron wants speed, but would rather have a skilled player with good speed over a burner who is less skilled - he has passed over burners and shooters for more complete offensive players

 

[Appleyard]

I would guess that Rick Pracey (2014-present) is pretty high up in the internal scouting structure for the CHL these days... and his "specialist" area is the OHL.

He was Colorado's amateur scouting director before joining the Flyers.

And I think that Nick Pryor (2013-present) and Joakim Grundberg (2013-present) have been arguably the best scouts recently off results... USHL+Sweden.

 

[Psuhockey]

Clearly Hextall does place a lot of value on mid-late round picks hitting, and not in an AHL lifer sense. He emphasizes it. But I also don't understand what the scouts were doing before that. Good players are good players; the entire point of scouting is to find the best players. How do you need to be steered towards that?

Hextall: "We need you to find more high IQ, skilled players."

Scouts: "Ohhhhhhh, okkkkkkay. Gotcha, boss. Sorry about that! I thought we were looking for dumb, low skilled players. Our mistake."

As Appleyard states, the USHL and European scouting seem to have been the difference. The guys drafted out of the CHL in the later rounds have still been bombs for the most part.

I think the other thing that can’t be overlooked is the amount of picks that Hextall has had compared to Holmgren. I think the team is more willing to take chances with more picks then going the safe route which usually results in a dud. An example of this is the 4th round of 2015 where Dove McFalls was chosen ahead of Vorobyev. Dove McFalls is a classic late round Holmgren pick so without the second 4th rounder, Vorobyev isn’t in the system. A look at Ginning this year. Does the team take a bigger risk on a higher upside player if they have a 3rd rounder? Maybe with only one pick in rounds 2 and 3, the team went the safe route and picked a guy who’s had a greater chance to make the NHL as a 3rd pair versus two guys who could maybe hit a bit higher but with also a greater chance they bomb.

 

[David St Hubbins]

Patterson is that dreaded loud, veteran scout who doesn’t know what he’s doing & talks over younger scouts. Not that Greig or Hearty have been great. I tend to think Hextall & Pryor have a ton of input & don’t defer as much as others might.

Source?

 

[Ghosts Beer]

Source?

Did you watch Flight Plan when Comcast recorded a scouting meeting? And there have been a few interviews with Patterson over the years where he also gives off that vibe. That’s at least been my feeling for a while.

 

[FLYguy3911]

As Appleyard states, the USHL and European scouting seem to have been the difference. The guys drafted out of the CHL in the later rounds have still been bombs for the most part.

I think the other thing that can’t be overlooked is the amount of picks that Hextall has had compared to Holmgren. I think the team is more willing to take chances with more picks then going the safe route which usually results in a dud. An example of this is the 4th round of 2015 where Dove McFalls was chosen ahead of Vorobyev. Dove McFalls is a classic late round Holmgren pick so without the second 4th rounder, Vorobyev isn’t in the system. A look at Ginning this year. Does the team take a bigger risk on a higher upside player if they have a 3rd rounder? Maybe with only one pick in rounds 2 and 3, the team went the safe route and picked a guy who’s had a greater chance to make the NHL as a 3rd pair versus two guys who could maybe hit a bit higher but with also a greater chance they bomb.

Whoever was pounding the table for the 2017 OHL kids is looking pretty good right now.

Historically drafting CHL players late doesn’t yield a high ROI. I wouldn’t necessarily blame the scouts for that. It’s a philosophy flaw more than anything. Like Fazleev was a good 6th round pick. He’s not an NHL player, but he still exceeded expectations. You’re more likely to find gems late from the USHL and Swedish Junior Leagues. Those leagues aren’t as well scouted. The CHL is the most scouted league in the world. Guys rarely fall through the cracks.

Pretty sure they liked Vorobyev more than Dove-McFalls. They just knew they could get him where they did. They even traded back. They had back to back picks in that round originally.

 

[Rebels57]

Tbf Hextall has traded 7th round picks in consecutive drafts for no additional compensation.

It sure would be nice to have Cayden Primeau in our goalie pipeline as well. Can never have too many quality goalie prospects until one of them actually hits and owns the #1 position on the Flyers for an extended period of time.

 

[MacDonald4MVP]

It sure would be nice to have Cayden Primeau in our goalie pipeline as well. Can never have too many quality goalie prospects until one of them actually hits and owns the #1 position on the Flyers for an extended period of time.

And inevitably get career ending injury. Such is a life of flyers fans.

 

[Curufinwe]

As Appleyard states, the USHL and European scouting seem to have been the difference. The guys drafted out of the CHL in the later rounds have still been bombs for the most part.

What qualifies as later rounds?

Fazleev, Dove-McFalls, Bunnaman, Salinitri, Strome, Sushko, and Wylie are the CHL picks drafted after the 3rd round under Hextall.

So that's one forward who became an AHL depth player, two forwards who didn't get signed, three other forwards who have signed ELCs, and a dman who just got drafted.

 

[Psuhockey]

What qualifies as later rounds?

Fazleev, Dove-McFalls, Bunnaman, Salinitri, Strome, Sushko, and Wylie are the CHL picks drafted after the 3rd round under Hextall.

So that's one forward who became an AHL depth player, two forwards who didn't get signed, three other forwards who have signed ELCs, and a dman who just got drafted.

Bombs was a bit harsh but two weren’t signed. Fazleev looks like he is about to wash out and go home. Its too early to judge Bunnaman, Strome, Sushko and Wylie. I don’t see that much difference between those guys and the types Holmgren was drafting late from the CHL was my point.

To answer your other question, I consider anything from the 4th round on as late because that seems to be where the percent of chance of getting any NHL player levels out for the rest of the draft.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Strome and Sushko were good picks regardless of what they do or don't do in the NHL. Bunnaman too to a lesser degree. Those guys all performed enough at 18 to get an ELC less than a year after they were picked.

 

[captainpaxil]

If we were to do a redraft of 2013 how does the flyers board hold up

 

[LegionOfDoom91]

If we were to do a redraft of 2013 how does the flyers board hold up

Not good but fortunately it wasn’t like a 2015 draft where it was pretty strong outside of the top ten.

This draft was a dud for the Flyers. Fortunately the year before was good & the year after could be good too. It is what it is though. You win some, you lose some.

 

[GapToothedWonder]

It still boggles my mind that ASF was dumb enough to not censor this.

 

[Jtown]

It still boggles my mind that ASF was dumb enough to not censor this.

its the reason hexy fired him. And its the reason why he hates hextall

 

[GapToothedWonder]

its the reason hexy fired him. And its the reason why he hates hextall

I don't understand how he could expect any other out come.

 

[Jtown]

I don't understand how he could expect any other out come.

i wrote a post dissecting every point in ASF scathing post on a 2nd rate blog about the Hextall Era. One of the issues he brought up was how he took steps to be in control of every social media and press release the team made. And voila no huge info leaks. He said it like it was a bad thing. If i was part of an organization that completely exposed its scouting and draft prospect rankings on a scale never scene before I too would take massive steps to prevent such leaks happening again.

Teams that show these draft videos now completely blur out everything but the player they draft and edit it heavily so the discussion is ambiguous. But not ASF, he completely exposed the organization and made people look bad.