Confirmed with Link: Fleury re-signed (4 years, $23M, $5.75M AAV) #2

[WayneSid9987]

There might not be a better option right this minute but surely over the next 4 years there will many, more likely than not.

There really isn't though.
Atleast not in the next 2 years.

I'm confident JR can have a goalie tandem that will atleast be capable over the course of MAF's deal AND he'll have the ability to spend more on a backup with the Cap possibly going up massively over the next 2 years.

 

[Jaded-Fan]

Statistically, there is only a 9% chance of being worse than Fleury (he ranked 21/23).

So the odds are 91 : 9 or 10:1 that no goalie could perform worse in the post-season than Fleury has. I like those odds.

This is not singles tennis. This is a team sport.

Again, being clear eyed about his faults over the years, and his melt downs, those stats are certainly skewed by systems played in front of the goalies. Brodeur would still have been great on any team, but he wouldn't have had the stats he did on a team that did not play the style NJ did over his entire career.

And though Fleury was certainly a part of what went wrong over the past few playoffs, if you replaced him with another average goalie the results would have remained the same. He is not why they lost these past playoffs. He is not even second or third down the list in most of those years.

I am not excusing Fleury, merely adding some perspective to the stat argument. It is a reason why almost every single stat needs to be taken not entirely at face value, especially in team sports.

 

[penguins2946*]

Well, this was the conclusion

I wasn't referring to that part in my post. I can understand an argument for not having Fleury (I wanted to CBO Fleury and sign Hiller personally), but the arguments in here are, well, dumb as ****.

Okay, let's reduce the sample size (that everyone already complains about) and pretend that they played with and against the exact same lineups on each team and saw the exact same shots. Nice fantasy.

So comparing their stats when they played the same exact teams is a fantasy? Are you freaking kidding me? Your arguments in here have been an absolute joke.

This is a sample of goaltenders who started in the post-season since 2010. Hartzell is nowhere near that caliber.

The stats suggest that Fleury is so bad that almost any halfway decent NHL caliber goaltender would be an improvement. Vokoun's time in PIT supports that claim.

And Brett Johnson proved that was false 3 times. I can play that game too.

 

[Deutschland Dangler]

I must have missed the full NTC he got and forgot that no one in the history of the game has ever waived a NTC when asked to. JR shouldn't even bother signing a back-up for the next 4 years.

He can decide whether he wants to be put on waivers and he can submit a list of 12 teams he doesn't want to be traded to. That's basically a full NMC. We are completely dependent on his mercy if we want to trade him.

 

[SEALBound]

Bottom line guys, he's been re-signed. Like it or no, he's likely here for awhile so we may as well get used to it. The cap is going up and his hit is only 750k more so it's not THAT bad. He was decent in last years playoffs minus a goal or two.

Hopefully the new team and the offense makes him a non issue. Either way, like it or not, we are moving forward with him. We can argue who is better or who is worse or what backups we could/should have...but none of it matters. What's done is done.

 

[wolffy66]

So we have effectively proven(even tho the sample is too small) that MAF is better than an AHL level goalie? Super!
How about some stats for MAF vs Vokoun?

As I recall we found Vokoun on the market.

 

[Gold Diamond]

I'm okay with this deal. I'd have preferred to have moved on from him, but whatever. He's here and he has played well in the past, he can do it again.

The question remains: will he?

 

[Winger for Hire]

I don't think many realize how truly rare it is for a quality to average NHL goalie to hit the UFA market, and when they do what kind of money gets thrown at them.

The market for "affordable" UFA goalies is usually filled with the equivalent of the Island of Misfit Toys. It's a bunch of guys who you cross your fingers to stay healthy enough to suit up 15 times, problem children, glove hands that can't catch a slow pitch softball pitch, and guys 3 years away from being on the cover of the AARP magazine.

 

[wolffy66]

There really isn't though.
Atleast not in the next 2 years.

I'm confident JR can have a goalie tandem that will atleast be capable over the course of MAF's deal AND he'll have the ability to spend more on a backup with the Cap possibly going up massively over the next 2 years.

.


I'd ask you to prove it but seeing how its impossible I guess we will have to take your word for it.

 

[penguins2946*]

For the people who think that any NHL caliber goalie could replace Fleury's play in the playoffs, how do you explain Brett Johnson? His season stats followed by his playoff stats look like:

09-10: .906 save% in the regular season, .857 save% in the playoffs
10-11: .922 save% in the regular season, .636 save% in the playoffs
11-12: .883 save% in the regular season, .667 save% in the playoffs

He was definitely a NHL caliber backup in his first 2 years. How do you explain that?

 

[Uncle Machete]

The market for "affordable" UFA goalies is usually filled with the equivalent of the Island of Misfit Toys. It's a bunch of guys who you cross your fingers to stay healthy enough to suit up 15 times, problem children, glove hands that can't catch a slow pitch softball pitch, and guys 3 years away from being on the cover of the AARP magazine.

But everyone is better than Fleury!

 

[cassius]

This is not singles tennis. This is a team sport.

Again, being clear eyed about his faults over the years, and his melt downs, those stats are certainly skewed by systems played in front of the goalies. Brodeur would still have been great on any team, but he wouldn't have had the stats he did on a team that did not play the style NJ did over his entire career.

And though Fleury was certainly a part of what went wrong over the past few playoffs, if you replaced him with another average goalie the results would have remained the same. He is not why they lost these past playoffs. He is not even second or third down the list in most of those years.

I am not excusing Fleury, merely adding some perspective to the stat argument. It is a reason why almost every single stat needs to be taken not entirely at face value, especially in team sports.

My issue is that historically, Fleury has been a guy who has folded under pressure - or performed very poorly when we needed him the most.

Below are Fleury's numbers in playoff games that were either elimination games or games the Penguins could knock the opposition out of the playoffs.

(Fleury's record in those games, 4-10)

2010 Playoffs
Round 1: Games 5-6 vs Ottawa: .909 SV%, .903 SV%
Round 2: Games 6-7 vs Montreal: .840 SV%, .692 SV%

2011 Playoffs
Round 1: Games 5-7 vs Tampa Bay: .714 SV%, .810 SV%, .957 SV%

2012 Playoffs
Round 1: Games 4-6 vs Philadelphia: .880 SV%, .923 SV%, .818 SV%

2014 Playoffs
Round 1: Game 6 vs Columbus, .889 SV%
Games 5-7 vs Rangers, 882 SV%, .897 SV%, .900 SV%

The numbers definitely don't lie. Fleury is a polarizing figure around these parts for a reason.

 

[PensFanSince1989]

For all the talk of the new goalie coach, Zatkoff's ESSV% last year was 0.916, MAF's was 0.917. That's not uncommon for MAF. Even if Bylsma's system is to blame, MAF didn't outplay his backups.

...That's not uncommon for any backups. Backups get a lot less workload, and get their matcheups cherry picked...

 

[Michael8771*]

Bottom line guys, he's been re-signed. Like it or no, he's likely here for awhile so we may as well get used to it. The cap is going up and his hit is only 750k more so it's not THAT bad. He was decent in last years playoffs minus a goal or two.

Hopefully the new team and the offense makes him a non issue. Either way, like it or not, we are moving forward with him. We can argue who is better or who is worse or what backups we could/should have...but none of it matters. What's done is done.

I've seen people gripe about MAF for years. Similar to the angst over Adams by some. It must be miserable to follow a team where by you can't stand the personnel, (or at least a few who have been in the fold for quite some time). I admit, once DB was fired It was like a huge weight was lifted off my shoulders, I couldn't stand him. So to the MAF haters, these four years must feel like a prison sentence.

 

[penguins2946*]

My issue is that historically, Fleury has been a guy who has folded under pressure - or performed very poorly when we needed him the most.

Below are Fleury's numbers in playoff games that were either elimination games or games the Penguins could knock the opposition out of the playoffs.

(Fleury's record in those games, 4-10)

2010 Playoffs
Round 1: Games 5-6 vs Ottawa: .909 SV%, .903 SV%
Round 2: Games 6-7 vs Montreal: .840 SV%, .692 SV%

2011 Playoffs
Round 1: Games 5-7 vs Tampa Bay: .714 SV%, .810 SV%, .957 SV%

2012 Playoffs
Round 1: Games 4-6 vs Philadelphia: .880 SV%, .923 SV%, .818 SV%

2014 Playoffs
Round 1: Game 6 vs Columbus, .889 SV%
Games 5-7 vs Rangers, 882 SV%, .897 SV%, .900 SV%

The numbers definitely don't lie. Fleury is a polarizing figure around these parts for a reason.

And this is a legitimate complain. Fleury cracks under pressure most of the time, and especially in elimination games (minus game 7 against the Bolts and games 6 and 7 against the Wings). The problem is we don't have any better alternatives available right now, and the only option we have had recently was Hiller in free agency last summer (which I wanted to do). I don't think people are arguing for Fleury as much as they're arguing that Fleury is better than the alternatives here. Or at least that's what I'm doing.

 

[UnrealMachine]

So comparing their stats when they played the same exact teams is a fantasy? Are you freaking kidding me? Your arguments in here have been an absolute joke.

No, pretending that playing against the same team presents an equal challenge to a goaltender is the joke. Pretending that two high noise variables are equal at the expense of more data points is one of the first things you learn not to do when setting up an experiment.

 

[Riptide]

Dangler, you seem to be operating under the assumption that the Pens would have been able to sign MAF under the price of his last contract (per year number).

Show me an example, in pro sports (any, not just NHL), where a player who helps their team into the playoffs (a trait a lot of teams would love in a goalie), has no off-field issues and isn't a disruption to the team in good or bad times tests the FA market and gets less than his last contract (again, yearly salary). That is unheard of and no agent that has a client would allow that to happen.

Sure he has had the post-season yips, but he's also shown steps of getting over them (not all the way, but shown progress). He's shown that he is capable of being a playoff level goalie (2008, 2009, 2014) so it's not unreal to think he can find that again seeing as how he's shown progression lately.

There are only two possible outcomes for waiting to re-sign him after the year- 1) He signs the same contract he signed now or 2) he continues progressing and can command more than what he got. If he would pump up his demands with a good playoff showing, then the Pens either pay it to keep him or let him walk, and then we get into the muddy and undesirable waters of the UFA Goalie market which is blindfolded darts, at best.

I'd be careful with that, as I'm sure it's happened (Gaborik comes to mind). But when you factor in his age, durability and accomplishments, I think its fair to say that he wasn't going to be taking much less then the 5.75m he is getting paid this season.

 

[Night Shift]

Goaltending is about the last thing on my mind for this season. JR has a good tandem right now. Let's get some wingers. K thx.

Nope you heard it from the majority Rutherford got smoked...pack it in the next 4 seasons are over

 

[Zbynek]

The issue with the limited NTC is 12 teams is actually a lot. Fleury+his agent can change the list every year and basically make him untradeable every season. There will never be more than 12 teams trying to trade for Fleury.

You might as well call it a full-on NMC

 

[Jaded-Fan]

My issue is that historically, Fleury has been a guy who has folded under pressure - or performed very poorly when we needed him the most.

Below are Fleury's numbers in playoff games that were either elimination games or games the Penguins could knock the opposition out of the playoffs.

(Fleury's record in those games, 4-10)

2010 Playoffs
Round 1: Games 5-6 vs Ottawa: .909 SV%, .903 SV%
Round 2: Games 6-7 vs Montreal: .840 SV%, .692 SV%

2011 Playoffs
Round 1: Games 5-7 vs Tampa Bay: .714 SV%, .810 SV%, .957 SV%

2012 Playoffs
Round 1: Games 4-6 vs Philadelphia: .880 SV%, .923 SV%, .818 SV%

2014 Playoffs
Round 1: Game 6 vs Columbus, .889 SV%
Games 5-7 vs Rangers, 882 SV%, .897 SV%, .900 SV%

The numbers definitely don't lie. Fleury is a polarizing figure around these parts for a reason.

The thing is that most seem to not be getting is that overall most who are ok with the deal agree with your points.

And yet we are still ok with the deal.

Because honestly it is a little or naive to believe that it is that easy to find an average starting goalie, on the cheap no less, in the NHL.

The chances for we 'defenders' of finding even marginally better, or even as good, are far less than the chance that Fleury does better under the new system. At worst, we know what we have and can live with it. Let him go? It could be a lot worse.

 

[penguins2946*]

No, pretending that playing against the same team presents an equal challenge to a goaltender is the joke. Pretending that two high noise variables are equal at the expense of more data points is one of the first things you learn not to do when setting up an experiment.

Are you serious right now? How is comparing the stats of the 2 against the same teams stupid? This is the dumbest thing I've read in this thread so far. How is comparing the stats of Fleury in 60 games and Zatkoff in 20 games more reliable to who the better goalie is? Comparing their stats against the same teams is a **** ton more accurate than just comparing their stats overall.

 

[Speaking Moistly]

Sure, I might be a little extreme. I'd sure as hell rather have Sid and Geno. But we can't gloss over their failings in the playoffs and shine the biggest light ever on MAF for his. All of these guys have failed to do their jobs when it matters most, except for 2 years (08 and 09), but we're not allowed to mention those years for Fleury (when a lot of people were talking about him being in the elite tier). Sid and Geno can use those years to make their playoff PPG stats look a whole hell of a lot better though.

I just would like to use the same set of criteria when judging everyone. I don't want to use RRP's method (in this discussion at least) of picking a certain sample size to make the stats say what I want them to say.

Right, and their failings are a much smaller sample size. Fleury has been a disaster for years over entire playoff runs, it's not a bad series or bad games. Crosby and Malkin matter more than Fleury, infinitely more, it's not even comparable. You go through **** with generational talents, not average players. Their playoff ppg still averages out well because they've done well in production since 09.

Crosby
07 - 1.00, 5GP
08 - 1.35, 20GP
09 - 1.29, 24GP
10 - 1.46, 13GP
11 - Injury fun from here on in
12 - 1.33, 6GP
13 - 1.07, 14GP
14 - 0.69, 13GP

Malkin
07 - 0.80, 5GP
08 - 1.10, 20GP
09 - 1.50, 24GP
10 - 0.85, 13GP
11 - Knee
12 - 1.33, 6GP
13 - 1.07, 15GP
14 - 1.08, 13GP


Crosby can't get to the playoffs healthy and Malkin has issues in the season but gets to the playoffs, this is their biggest issue in a vacuum. Fleury's biggest problem is being a headcase who can and will throw **** away. Bylsma was just an idiot with an ego and a grinder complex.

 

[Winger for Hire]

I'd be careful with that, as I'm sure it's happened (Gaborik comes to mind). But when you factor in his age, durability and accomplishments, I think its fair to say that he wasn't going to be taking much less then the 5.75m he is getting paid this season.

I'd argue Gabby's was due to injury risk/history... but I get what you're saying. I need to be more careful.

I was just trying to drive home the point that a lateral money move was the absolute best that could be hoped for.

 

[Dipsy Doodle]

For the people who think that any NHL caliber goalie could replace Fleury's play in the playoffs, how do you explain Brett Johnson? His season stats followed by his playoff stats look like:

09-10: .906 save% in the regular season, .857 save% in the playoffs
10-11: .922 save% in the regular season, .636 save% in the playoffs
11-12: .883 save% in the regular season, .667 save% in the playoffs

He was definitely a NHL caliber backup in his first 2 years. How do you explain that?

The idea that any NHL calibre back-up goalie could replace Fleury is a false dichotomy. If we had replaced Fleury, it wouldn't have been with any run-of-the-mill back-up.

He could, however, have been replaced by any number of journeyman starters for a fraction of the cost. But appeasing people was the bigger priority.

 

[wolffy66]

For the people who think that any NHL caliber goalie could replace Fleury's play in the playoffs, how do you explain Brett Johnson? His season stats followed by his playoff stats look like:

09-10: .906 save% in the regular season, .857 save% in the playoffs
10-11: .922 save% in the regular season, .636 save% in the playoffs
11-12: .883 save% in the regular season, .667 save% in the playoffs

He was definitely a NHL caliber backup in his first 2 years. How do you explain that?

So that's the worst case. Basically the same as MAF. Even trade, cant win with either guy. Theres no way to make this signing look good. Saying other MIGHT POTENTIALLY be as bad as MAF doesn't help. 21st of 23 is 21st of 23. Bringing up 22nd and 23rd place doesn't make me feel better.

As Branch Rickey told Ralph Kiner " we finished last with you, we can finish last without you" that about sums up my thoughts on MAF vs any goalie. We can get playoff melt downs anywhere, don't need MAF.