In the end, this feels like a move made a year too soon. Even if our cheapass ownership didn’t want to buy Neal out, the fact that tre settled for a 4th liner for marginally less still ****ing sucks. In this case, I would’ve preferred giving Neal another year and hoping to god he marginally improves his value. There is no upside in lucic’s game, regardless of what advanced stats tell you. His hands have all but vanished, and is skating is truely terrible. As his abilities further decline, it makes things even more complicated as we can’t move him because of his nmc, and the bonuses guarantee a buyout is out of the picture. The final year of his contract is also when Gaudreau is supposed to get an extension.... so have fun with that tre.
TL;DR - The funny thing is that if Treliving wasn't so good at contracts, we don't have the Neal situation. IMO we are in a fine place, but a contract like Neal just squandered all the extra flexibility that Treliving built up over the last few seasons.
Perhaps it feels like a year early, but it seemed like Neal turned toxic quickly after arriving in Calgary, so maybe Tre decided to move him before he went nuclear on the room. He had to go with something that would be more palatable to ownership than salary cap in the actual cash owed to ownership to make it work. We don't know who instigated it first, but Lucic's real cash is definitely something that would be ownership preferred if dead contracts are concerned. Lucic can be bought out in 2 years at a reasonable amount, but that's the year after the expansion draft in the 2020 off season. It does seem like Neal is in the perfect place to rebound as a top 6 winger in Edmonton, vs Lucic is still a seriously overpaid anchor here in our bottom 6. Consider that we were mainly just hoping that Neal ends up doing what Hudler did a few seasons back and he just really couldn't. Hudler was able to play up and down the lineup too, but again, Neal couldn't do that.
By all accounts, it seems Lucic has already agreed to waive for that the expansion draft, but is unwilling to waive for other movements without his consent. I think the NMC is either intact or completely removed if modified. Nothing in between. Flames are willing to honor the NMC (doesn't affect buyout in two seasons) as long as Lucic doesn't take up a slot in the expansion draft. I believe I read that the earliest Lucic could essentially waive the NMC for the expansion draft is Jan 1, 2020. I think quite a few of us are nervous about that, but it seemed obvious that Treliving wouldn't allow something dumb like that to continue to exist at the draft. I wouldn't be surprised if Treliving would rather buyout Lucic prior to the draft and take the salary cap hit rather than use a slot on Lucic. But that scenario sucks too. I think we as fans aren't wrong to be nervous about that, but I am leaning towards Lucic is a solid guy and the fact Flames were willing to honor his NMC means he will honor his part of the deal and waive it for Seattle.
As much as I'm sure your point about Gaudreau is more along the lines of the salary shuffle, TBH, it seems like Treliving didn't really sweat all too much during contract negotiations in the first place. Sure, he's in an awkward situation right now, but the remainder of the salary structure was all his own doing. I mean, sure. It at times always seems odd that he's super against the cap when he has to go negotiate extensions, but he always seems walk out of the situation with a great deal for the org and the player. Remember Gio's 9MM ask? Gaudreau's similar ask if not 8MM? I mean, we were far less concerned with Hanifin and Lindholm by the time we acquired them, but those were still solid deals that we wondering at times if it's too good to be true. The guy has never wavered in ensuring good contracts hit the books. I don't think we should be as worried for Tkachuk, Bennett and Rittich. But... oddly enough, we are in this situation, because Treliving worked hard to give himself flexibility which gave him the ability to sign a contract like Neal's in the first place. If he had not been so good at contracts, no Neal/Lucic situation. Just a bodies needing raises that have less cap to work with (if that 5.4MM had been absorbed by slightly higher AAV on Gaudreau and Gio for instance.
UFA is a serious Achilles heel though. That and he seems to frequently get the wrong end of the stick when it comes to vets that just suddenly fail when they are acquired for Calgary. Oddly enough I believe only Frolik and Engelland actually lived up to their contracts. Everyone else either started OK, then ended up cratering extremely fast (Hiller, Elliott and Jagr included), or just seemed like we were sold a bill of goods rather than any content (ie: Brouwer, Neal, Raymond etc.).