Friedman: Flames have a lot of interest on Luke Schenn

[logan5]

At nearly $7M cap hit I guarantee you they wouldn't.


I'm not surprised to see Canucks fans value points the way they do though. That's the type of basic mindset that your management would have and why Vancouver is a laughing joke to the rest of the league. Just like with JT Miller last year.


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Where do you get these "market Value" graphs? I guess you have to have a subscription to The Athletic?

 

[Cogburn]

I'm not really sure what you're asking anymore. He was drafted late in the 1st round and has performed roughly up to those expectations since then. If he hadn't then his value would be lower, if he had exceeded expectations his value would be higher. Just like a 5th round pick exceeding expectations would raise their value as an asset.

He's standing on his own right now, his body of work pre-draft was enough to get him picked in the 1st round and his body of work after has reinforced that value and the belief that this is a good center prospect playing an important role on a great AHL team. If you're interested there's threads on this website about him, profiles done by scouts on him, prospect updates done by beat reporters on him.

What I was asking is how long until Zary, or any prospect, is going to be evaluated as a player, present or future, and not be described simply as "a former 1st round pick", instead using "an almost point-per-game AHL center at 21, that can skate well, score and play a very good overall game", as an example.

 

[GOilers88]

LMAOOOOOOOOOO who hurt this guy



Lucic is dead weight, dumping him can open up more moves for the Flames.

but ya if there arent more bigger moves that require cap spcae then Lucic can ride along for the playoff run i guess.

The guy basically dumps on everyone who isn't an Av or an Avs fan on the mains.

 

[Bounces R Way]

What I was asking is how long until Zary, or any prospect, is going to be evaluated as a player, present or future, and not be described simply as "a former 1st round pick", instead using "an almost point-per-game AHL center at 21, that can skate well, score and play a very good overall game", as an example.

Oh ok. Personal preference I guess.

Both are correct characterizations, the latter providing more info definitely but I would still say at 21 years old the former 1st round pick part is relevant to the discussion. It's part of the resume.

 

[Cogburn]

Oh ok. Personal preference I guess.

Both are correct characterizations, the latter providing more info definitely but I would still say at 21 years old the former 1st round pick part is relevant to the discussion. It's part of the resume.

I guess it's a preference?

One feels to me like saying "he finished high school" versus "he's in a neurosurgery program", or at least "he's part way through a Bachelor's program". Using one over the other, while accurate, always sounds like that's best thing about his progression. I mean, we sarcastically referenced Virtanen's and Juolevi's draft positions describing them in Vancouver.

 

[canuckfan75]

need to see a 2nd rounder

 

[EXTRAS]

I don't get the boeser hate he's a 64 point pace career player. That doesn't seem terrible for a 6.6m player...

Is patrik line neg value he's 66 point career pace and makes 2m more.

People get so carried away with these negative value statement.

 

[Bounces R Way]

I guess it's a preference?

One feels to me like saying "he finished high school" versus "he's in a neurosurgery program", or at least "he's part way through a Bachelor's program". Using one over the other, while accurate, always sounds like that's best thing about his progression. I mean, we sarcastically referenced Virtanen's and Juolevi's draft positions describing them in Vancouver.

Well I dunno man, I haven't seen anybody put out a Definitive Guide to Qualifying NHL Prospects on a Message Board yet but rest assured I'll give it a skim when they do.

He was picked late in the first, has mostly met expectations of what that profile should look like since then, would it not follow his value is still ~ to a first round pick? Perhaps even slightly more since he already has some development under his belt. I don't think it needs to be one over the other, they're both pertinent pieces of information.

Juolevi being on his 4th NHL organization is another illustration of how 1st round picks retain their value compared to non 1st rounders. If he was drafted in the 3rd or 4th round instead of top 10 he would likely already be back in Finland or wherever. Man has made over 7 million dollars playing pro hockey despite scoring all of 3pts at the NHL level in 6 years.

 

[McJedi]

Bwahahaha. Schenn for a 4th AND Pelletier or Zary? Dream on.

Replace Zary and 4th with 2023 2nd + 2023 3rd then.

 

[Nanuuk]

Replace Zary and 4th with 2023 2nd + 2023 3rd then.

A 4th, maybe a 3rd, but nothing more. Those picks would be better spent elsewhere.

 

[madmike77]

I don't get the boeser hate he's a 64 point pace career player. That doesn't seem terrible for a 6.6m player...

Is patrik line neg value he's 66 point career pace and makes 2m more.

People get so carried away with these negative value statement.

It’s not necessarily hate. The Flames have 0 cap room next year. Any extra slots they have will need to be filled by players on entry level contracts or close to league minimum. They just don’t have room for that kind of salary.

 

[McJedi]

A 4th, maybe a 3rd, but nothing more. Those picks would be better spent elsewhere.

Schenn will go for a lot more than a 4th. Get real with that. He’ll fetch at worst a 2nd. But it will be a 2nd +. He’s a great rental asset. Cheap, heavy D man.

 

[puckinyourteeth]

Boeser is not worth a 1st on any planet lol, unless we retain 50% for the next two years.

But if we're taking back Lucic (gross), I'd definitely ask for Zary or Phillips coming back, which the Flames probably won't do.

Schenn + Boeser for Kylington would be interesting. Although with that the Canucks would need more insight as to what's going on and a timeline for a potential return.

AYFKM? did Boeser forget how to play, or does team and family issues/drama play a lot into his slow down. He’s been injured but the guy can play. All he needs is a change of scenery. If the Canucks were to absorb half his cap hit, a trade would go down in short order.

 

[Mobiandi]

Why must we always be interested in this profile of player as the deadline approaches

 

[SensontheRush]

At nearly $7M cap hit I guarantee you they wouldn't.


I'm not surprised to see Canucks fans value points the way they do though. That's the type of basic mindset that your management would have and why Vancouver is a laughing joke to the rest of the league. Just like with JT Miller last year.


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I'm sick of dumb posters plugging in graphics and thinking that constitutes an argument.

Pointing at things and calling players "shit"; cutting edge analysis alright.

 

[OVO16]

Why must we always be interested in this profile of player as the deadline approaches

Look at who your coach is

 

[Gilmour1996]

Pretty spotty that a second rounder does much in the NHL anyway, let alone a 3rd or 4th rounder. This isn't the NFL draft.

 

[Mobiandi]

Look at who your coach is

We did the same thing with Peters and Ward. It's a weird Treliving obsession to waste picks on 3rd pairing guys

 

[Cogburn]

Well I dunno man, I haven't seen anybody put out a Definitive Guide to Qualifying NHL Prospects on a Message Board yet but rest assured I'll give it a skim when they do.

He was picked late in the first, has mostly met expectations of what that profile should look like since then, would it not follow his value is still ~ to a first round pick? Perhaps even slightly more since he already has some development under his belt. I don't think it needs to be one over the other, they're both pertinent pieces of information.

Juolevi being on his 4th NHL organization is another illustration of how 1st round picks retain their value compared to non 1st rounders. If he was drafted in the 3rd or 4th round instead of top 10 he would likely already be back in Finland or wherever. Man has made over 7 million dollars playing pro hockey despite scoring all of 3pts at the NHL level in 6 years.

I will get my ghostwriters working on it as soon as they're done grooming each other and flinging feces at who ever walks too close to their enclosure.

I have no doubt that Zary could fetch a first round pick, or would be included as the equivalent there of, under the right circumstances. Not every first round pick can, the value of a prospect changes as they develop. Juolevi is an example of retaining value based on the title of "first round pick" or "top ten pick". But no one in their right mind was trading a 6th overall for him after maybe his draft+1. I think "pedigree" in this context is a stupid reason to give value a prospect someone would know nothing about. If this is the only reason a player is coveted, it denotes that the team or organization acquiring the player couldn't do their own scouting. It could be a reason to look into a player, but eventually other descriptors become much more important, and that is what I am ranting about.

Juolevi being on his 4th team of his NHL career is also illustrating what I'm arguing as well. These organizations have this blind hope he will put it all together, despite past failures. Other important descriptors that teams after Florida should have looked into were lazy, not committed, stubborn, developmentally stunted (in a hockey context) or routinely out of shape. He's made a career out of other teams blindly accepting draft position, but at least no one has signed him to a multimillion dollar contract out of it. I'm not saying teams don't follow the draft position trumps everything logic, I'm saying they are poorer for it, and shouldn't.

 

[Bounces R Way]

I will get my ghostwriters working on it as soon as they're done grooming each other and flinging feces at who ever walks too close to their enclosure.

I would like this but I've apparently lost my reaction privileges.

I have no doubt that Zary could fetch a first round pick, or would be included as the equivalent there of, under the right circumstances. Not every first round pick can, the value of a prospect changes as they develop. Juolevi is an example of retaining value based on the title of "first round pick" or "top ten pick". But no one in their right mind was trading a 6th overall for him after maybe his draft+1. I think "pedigree" in this context is a stupid reason to give value a prospect someone would know nothing about. If this is the only reason a player is coveted, it denotes that the team or organization acquiring the player couldn't do their own scouting. It could be a reason to look into a player, but eventually other descriptors become much more important, and that is what I am ranting about.

That's fair, it's a lazy way of ascribing a player to a certain box. Really just a human tendency to label things into a familiar archetype that extends far beyond discussing hockey players. Definitely a more comprehensive review would have more information than former 1st rd pick.

Juolevi being on his 4th team of his NHL career is also illustrating what I'm arguing as well. These organizations have this blind hope he will put it all together, despite past failures. Other important descriptors that teams after Florida should have looked into were lazy, not committed, stubborn, developmentally stunted (in a hockey context) or routinely out of shape. He's made a career out of other teams blindly accepting draft position, but at least no one has signed him to a multimillion dollar contract out of it. I'm not saying teams don't follow the draft position trumps everything logic, I'm saying they are poorer for it, and shouldn't.

Sure there's certainly an argument to be made there that teams over value where a player was drafted. But there are also a lot of examples of former 1st round reclamation projects working out, where their draft position turned out to be well founded and they would go on to achieve at least a greater portion of that potential later in their career. Just off the top of my head in the league right now Nichushkin, Bennett, Burakovsky, Reinhart, Strome(s), Hall, Zadorov, and Fiala are all players that have found a greater degree of success at their 2nd or in some cases 3rd stops than they did with the team that drafted them.

It may be overvalued by NHL GMs but what I was initially disagreeing with you about was your notion that where a player was drafted has no bearing on their current value. I'm not even saying it should or that it shouldn't, but that this is plainly false. It does affect their value, and affects their value well past the age of 21.

 

[madmike77]

Why must we always be interested in this profile of player as the deadline approaches

This is what gets me. The Flames always pick up guys like this and then never use them. Just a complete waste of assets.

Sure Schenn is better than Gilbert or Desimone - but not that much. It’s not like having Schenn is going to be the difference between the Flames going deep or not making the playoffs.

 

[Nanuuk]

Schenn will go for a lot more than a 4th. Get real with that. He’ll fetch at worst a 2nd. But it will be a 2nd +. He’s a great rental asset. Cheap, heavy D man.

Whelp, I'd say Jaycob Megna may have just set the market at a 4th.

 

[EverTheCynic]

Whelp, I'd say Jaycob Megna may have just set the market at a 4th.

Schenn has a cup and leads the league in hits.

They aren't comparable.

 

[McJedi]

Whelp, I'd say Jaycob Megna may have just set the market at a 4th.

No one compares an AHL plug to Luke Schenn. Chiarot and Savard set the market.

 

[Nanuuk]

No one compares an AHL plug to Luke Schenn. Chiarot and Savard set the market.

He has played 48 games this year with an average ice time of 19:03. A veteran of 134 NHL games over 4 seasons (add one game for his first season). He is 30 years old.

This season his CF% is 54.0 at even strength. He's recorded 12 points, 63 blocks, and 75 hits.

This season Luke Schenn has played 49 games with an ATOI of 17:09. His CF% is 45.6 and he's recorded 16 points, 75 blocks, and 237 hits.

Both giveaway the puck more than takeaways (Megna 13 TK/ 23 GV), (Schenn 7 TK. 25 GV).

Schenn has played 912 NHL games and is 33 years old.

I'm not saying Schenn doesn't have a lot of value, but at his age and where he is playing right now, Vancouver won't be able to command more. Maybe a 3rd, but not much more.