GDT: FLAMES (28-13-6) vs. KRAKEN (16-30-4) 8 p.m. MT | TV: Sportsnet West/CBC | RADIO: Sportsnet 960

[Johnny Hoxville]

Monahan isn’t going to be traded. Why, Sutter loves his centers. I know everybody here hates and likes to dump on Monahan, but I think Sutter has respect for him and thinks he will get as much out of Monahan as he can. I think Sutter views him as depth, even though the cap is not good, the reality is you’re probably going to get a worse player back for Monahan than what he is. Essentially we are “stuck” with him.

We simply cannot afford to shell assets out to move him. He’s used to Sutters system, he has size and plays an important position. His value is complete trash which makes it almost impossible to move him for anything of value. I don’t see any realistic situation that involves us moving Monahan before this off-season.

 

[deleted user]

The only thing Mony ever had was his ability to score goals. It's been ravaged by injury. He has nothing else to give. It'll be nice when he's gone, tbh.

 

[Deen]

Monahan is fine if he would just crash the net like Tkachuk does. Toffoli shoots and Monahan cleans up the rebound. This should be easy.

 

[Yepthatsme]

He’s also had games with mangiapane and Coleman and wasn’t producing…

Gaudreau went from a 3rd liner at ES to literally the best ES scorer in the nhl when being split from money.

But I won’t bicker any further because this was a good win and I’m happy about that. Hope he shows more, and if not give Ruzicka a chance on that line.

Your point about Coleman and Mangiapane is objectively false. He had two points in just over 40 minutes played with them, that’s a higher rate of production than anyone on our team other than our top line.

 

[Some Other Flame]

For cap purposes, Monahan will 100% be moved in the summer. He's got no future with the Flames short of a miraculous turnaround. But the good news is he has just one year left on his contract. Which means teams like the Devils, Sens, Sabres, Wings, or Canes would all easily take a flyer on him if the acquisition cost was negligible, which it absolutely will be.

 

[super6646]

Your point about Coleman and Mangiapane is objectively false. He had two points in just over 40 minutes played with them, that’s a higher rate of production than anyone on our team other than our top line.

Can’t find the line combo times, but he spent roughly 100 mins with mangi 5 on 5 and 90 mins with Coleman according to natural stat trick. Might’ve not been that specific line, but he’s had more than 40 mins played with those 2 players.

 

[TheHudlinator]

Can’t find the line combo times, but he spent roughly 100 mins with mangi 5 on 5 and 90 mins with Coleman according to natural stat trick. Might’ve not been that specific line, but he’s had more than 40 mins played with those 2 players.

Dude this is the same thing people said about Bennett, and much like Bennett it would be a game here or a period there but no real time to build chemistry and just like Bennett people point to the lack of production even with minutes played with good players but its a disingenuous way to present that ice time.

Only 4 times has Monahan had linemates that are of top 9 ability and more than 10 minutes of ice time 5v5 meaning atleast 1 game played together they are

Mangiapane - Coleman 43 mins 2 GF 2 GA 59 CF%

Mangiapane - Dube 26 mins 3 GF 0 GA 67 CF%

Dube - Toffoli 25 min 2 GF 1 GA 51 CF%

Gaudreau - Tkachuk 20 min 3 GF 0 GA 63 CF%

So with 2 good linemates he is +7 5v5 and his line generates the majority of chances.

Not 1 person thinks he is worth 6 mil but having a guy that can play top 6 C and give you a winning line is exactly the kind of depth we need in the playoffs

 

[Fig]

And we traded Coleman for picks or something? I'd rather avoid McCann, not because I think he's bad, but because I think he'll cost more than people might think (he's 3 points away from tying his career high in points, and has already set this season as a career high in goals). McCann makes sense almost exclusively as a rental with no intention of re-signing, but neither him or Jarnkrok are better at faceoffs than Monahan, and part of the reason as a team we've been so effective is because we win so many of our face-offs (Jarnkrok likely being brought in as a winger makes acquiring him less of an issue).

I am a fan of Monahan, but I understand replacing him, especially with his cap hit vs what he brings to the table right now (though he has looked a lot better since Ritchie was removed from his line). But replacing him with a sub-50% FO center doesn't make sense given the importance of possession in Sutter's system.

I have no idea how I missed Coleman good catch.

I know you said not to get caught up on McCann but he is an Rfa and one of the few good players Seattle has and they are going to trade him for a 6 Million dollar center that hasn't looked the same since his surgery for Valimaki and a mystery box in Poirier?

If you want to trade Monahan you're going to need to find a team that desperately needs a center( the one thing Seattle actually has) or you're going to have to be okay not trading for a better player then Monahan unless you want to add a prospect you don't want to move.

I'm personally fine with keeping Monahan this year and figuring it out this offseason, is he a 6 million dollar player no but he is still useful and fine #3 center

Fair about why Seattle might not want him. But then you make it sound like Monahan is more serviceable than not. Seems contradictory, no? I'd assume Monahan is still a good C and good mentor. But perhaps overpaid. I also somehow missed Coleman.

Idea was a concept. If you think it'll cost assets to move Monahan, fair. But I'm also wondering if a concept like this, the roster looks solid enough to be a top 3 western contender on par with VGK and Colorado.

The roster looks solid with Jarkrok. If we somehow could get a 2C upgrade as well with Monahan out and a few futures, that roster feels good too. But a 1C to go beside Lindholm... That would feel great vs good.

 

[TheHudlinator]

I have no idea how I missed Coleman good catch.



Fair about why Seattle might not want him. But then you make it sound like Monahan is more serviceable than not. Seems contradictory, no? I'd assume Monahan is still a good C and good mentor. But perhaps overpaid. I also somehow missed Coleman.

Idea was a concept. If you think it'll cost assets to move Monahan, fair. But I'm also wondering if a concept like this, the roster looks solid enough to be a top 3 western contender on par with VGK and Colorado.

The roster looks solid with Jarkrok. If we somehow could get a 2C upgrade as well with Monahan out and a few futures, that roster feels good too. But a 1C to go beside Lindholm... That would feel great vs good.

My point is Monahan is a fine #3 center that works well with skilled wingers. Would you trade a guy on pace for 35 goals this year for a 6 million dollar center when you lack skilled wingers for a defenseman when you have a log jam of bottom pairing defenseman? It just doesn't hit a single need of theirs and only adds to their surplus.

 

[Tofveve]

Finally got around to watching this game. Little disappointed with how close it was. Glad we won though.

 

[Mazatt]

I think the framing around Monahan (specifically in terms of linemates, and more directly his play) needs to be framed around the team itself rather than #'s compared to league standard. Sutter has the Flames playing a significant possession style, every single forward in the lineup right now is above 50% CF (and FF%) other than Lewis so that being the barometer of success can be considered questionable in some regards. By those possession metrics he is only ahead of Lucic and Lewis in CF%. In xGF% he is ahead of Lucic, Lewis, and Ruzicka *one of thing of note is that if you prorate Ruzicka's xGF it is still lower than Monahan's xGF at 48 games (18.6 vs 23.7). Despite that, Monahan is in a lower tier in terms of actual scoring chance % given he's back to being below Ruzicka, and even Lucic here as the 12th best forward, he's back to ~8th with High danger chances.

Even with OIS% where he is generally lower than other Flames, it's all relative as he's in the 5% range and is within 1 percent of other Flame forwards. By any metric, he is a bottom 4 forward on the Flames (worse peripherals than even Ritchie, though he's just an absolute sinkhole in terms of actual production) and this is all at 5v5. Of course it doesn't reflect impact of different lines (when away from Richardson/Lewis he's farily good possession wise per Dobber Line Tools). I do think he is adjusting to new expectations and style under Sutter, or more so he has adjusted and is now more responsible albeit below average compared to the rest of the team. His saving grace IS the power play, but I think there are a few people on the page that there isn't anything irreplaceable about his performance there beyond a ton of stats that don't seem to lineup with his spot as the middle bumper.

Really, Monahan is where he technically should be. He plays centre, and as a bottom 4 forward on the roster he can squarely be that 3rd line guy that you would like an upgrade on. And as Hox said above, Sutter viewing him as depth/of some use regardless of cap hit cements his use in the lineup. However, purely looking at short stints of him with better players vs. his body of work is inherently misleading in my opinion. He had ~20 minutes with Gaudreau and Tkachuk which would presumably be split between the Carolina game they started together, and post-powerplay shifts wherein they have it in the offensive zone mid-shift and would be expected to outchance opponents in that situation.

Monahan still has some use, expectations just have to fall in line with his lack of finishing and a different play-style to fit his lineup spot vs. the expectations of a contract he was given back in his prime. With adequate expectations I think it's a fairer time to assess what exactly he is in line with what he is told to do and what he can reasonably do.

 

[DFF]

Monahan is fine if he would just crash the net like Tkachuk does. Toffoli shoots and Monahan cleans up the rebound. This should be easy.

Except he doesn’t

 

[TheHudlinator]

I think the framing around Monahan (specifically in terms of linemates, and more directly his play) needs to be framed around the team itself rather than #'s compared to league standard. Sutter has the Flames playing a significant possession style, every single forward in the lineup right now is above 50% CF (and FF%) other than Lewis so that being the barometer of success can be considered questionable in some regards. By those possession metrics he is only ahead of Lucic and Lewis in CF%. In xGF% he is ahead of Lucic, Lewis, and Ruzicka *one of thing of note is that if you prorate Ruzicka's xGF it is still lower than Monahan's xGF at 48 games (18.6 vs 23.7). Despite that, Monahan is in a lower tier in terms of actual scoring chance % given he's back to being below Ruzicka, and even Lucic here as the 12th best forward, he's back to ~8th with High danger chances.

Even with OIS% where he is generally lower than other Flames, it's all relative as he's in the 5% range and is within 1 percent of other Flame forwards. By any metric, he is a bottom 4 forward on the Flames (worse peripherals than even Ritchie, though he's just an absolute sinkhole in terms of actual production) and this is all at 5v5. Of course it doesn't reflect impact of different lines (when away from Richardson/Lewis he's farily good possession wise per Dobber Line Tools). I do think he is adjusting to new expectations and style under Sutter, or more so he has adjusted and is now more responsible albeit below average compared to the rest of the team. His saving grace IS the power play, but I think there are a few people on the page that there isn't anything irreplaceable about his performance there beyond a ton of stats that don't seem to lineup with his spot as the middle bumper.

Really, Monahan is where he technically should be. He plays centre, and as a bottom 4 forward on the roster he can squarely be that 3rd line guy that you would like an upgrade on. And as Hox said above, Sutter viewing him as depth/of some use regardless of cap hit cements his use in the lineup. However, purely looking at short stints of him with better players vs. his body of work is inherently misleading in my opinion. He had ~20 minutes with Gaudreau and Tkachuk which would presumably be split between the Carolina game they started together, and post-powerplay shifts wherein they have it in the offensive zone mid-shift and would be expected to outchance opponents in that situation.

Monahan still has some use, expectations just have to fall in line with his lack of finishing and a different play-style to fit his lineup spot vs. the expectations of a contract he was given back in his prime. With adequate expectations I think it's a fairer time to assess what exactly he is in line with what he is told to do and what he can reasonably do.

So the guy who has played the majority with Lewis, Ritchie, Pitlick has poor possession numbers isn't a shocking fact is it.

 

[crazyfisherman]

The best player Monahan has played with consistency this year has been Dube, and he wasnt that good either, add in a black hole like ritchie? Im just glad they not getting scored on left right and center.

I mean look at the scrubs hes playing with... And hes been mostly positive possession wise.

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

 

[Yepthatsme]

Can’t find the line combo times, but he spent roughly 100 mins with mangi 5 on 5 and 90 mins with Coleman according to natural stat trick. Might’ve not been that specific line, but he’s had more than 40 mins played with those 2 players.

Dobber is a great resource for finding specific line combos and their results. Monahan played 43 minutes with Mangiapane and Coleman as a unit, and in that time he produced at a higher rate than any forward not on our top line. Whenever Monahan has two good wingers he’s produced respectable results this season.

 

[Mazatt]

So the guy who has played the majority with Lewis, Ritchie, Pitlick has poor possession numbers isn't a shocking fact is it.

There's a couple ways to frame it. Pitlick's 3 most common lines were with
Coleman - Backlund (129:54, 51.2%)
Dube - Monahan (66:29, 53.2%)
Lucic - Richardson (24:36, 43.2%)

Similar look for Ritchie
Mangiapane - Dube (63:32, 48.0%)
Dube - Monahan (44:48, 51.6%)
Lewis - Ruzicka (27:43, 61.7%)

Then for Lewis
Lucic - Ruzicka (76:54, 48.3%)
Lucic - Monahan (74:42, 47.4%)
Lucic - Richardson (68:41, 40.0%)

Then for interest sake Lucic's positive possession lines are with >50 minutes are with Dube/Mangiapane, then Dube/Monahan (64.2% and 59.5%) and then the prior Lewis lines.

So it definitely paints the picture that Monahan is a positive possession player under Sutter other than purely when he's with Lewis, it also shows even a player like Ritchie can have somewhat above average metrics pending linemates. Like Monahan does stuggle with Ritchie/Lewis, someone like Ruzicka can succeed with the same groupings, albeit with smaller sample sizes.

Fwiw I do like Monahan, I think he has use as a bottom six PP specialist right now and he IS adjusting his game to Sutter, and while there are absolute sinks on the roster, there are still players who can succeed with them, and it can suggest that Monahan does not drive possession on his lines, or that he is at least not someone who dictates the play of a line while providing what he can.

 

[DFF]

The best player Monahan has played with consistency this year has been Dube, and he wasnt that good either, add in a black hole like ritchie? Im just glad they not getting scored on left right and center.

I mean look at the scrubs hes playing with... And hes been mostly positive possession wise.

Line Combinations - Frozen Tools

do you realize that the reason Monahan is playing with scrubs is because he is not producing with good players anymore? How long did they try him with Johnny before giving up on it?

Today, he is just a bad fit. If he doesn’t work with Toffoli, I don’t know what they are going to do with him…

 

[TheHudlinator]

do you realize that the reason Monahan is playing with scrubs is because he is not producing with good players anymore? How long did they try him with Johnny before giving up on it?

Today, he is just a bad fit. If he doesn’t work with Toffoli, I don’t know what they are going to do with him…

You mean when he couldn't walk?

 

[crazyfisherman]

do you realize that the reason Monahan is playing with scrubs is because he is not producing with good players anymore? How long did they try him with Johnny before giving up on it?

Today, he is just a bad fit. If he doesn’t work with Toffoli, I don’t know what they are going to do with him…

No i dont, because hes number with our only 4 offensive option werent bad, possession numbers were pretty good actually, Obvs not good enough to get on the 1st line tho.

 

[super6646]

Dude this is the same thing people said about Bennett, and much like Bennett it would be a game here or a period there but no real time to build chemistry and just like Bennett people point to the lack of production even with minutes played with good players but its a disingenuous way to present that ice time.

Only 4 times has Monahan had linemates that are of top 9 ability and more than 10 minutes of ice time 5v5 meaning atleast 1 game played together they are

Mangiapane - Coleman 43 mins 2 GF 2 GA 59 CF%

Mangiapane - Dube 26 mins 3 GF 0 GA 67 CF%

Dube - Toffoli 25 min 2 GF 1 GA 51 CF%

Gaudreau - Tkachuk 20 min 3 GF 0 GA 63 CF%

So with 2 good linemates he is +7 5v5 and his line generates the majority of chances.

Not 1 person thinks he is worth 6 mil but having a guy that can play top 6 C and give you a winning line is exactly the kind of depth we need in the playoffs

The difference was that Bennett was never given a legitimate shot to centre top 6 talent here. Monahan on the other hand had 2 years to find his game with our franchise winger and failed miserably at that, and getting bumped from the top 6 has come as a result of that.

Look at the sample sizes on those line combos... can't really infer much from those. Mangiapane and Coleman have better metrics away from Monahan, but I can concede those sample sizes are small too. Nevertheless, the scraps he is playing with largely is due to the fact that Lindholm and Backlund have done far more at ES this year. Backs certainly hasn't had the percentages on his side either... he still has 17 ESPs and can shut down the top lines of other teams. Lindholm has 35 ESPs, so Monahan is not competing for that spot.

I can't see anything more the organization can do with him. Dube is a middle six talent, and Tofolli is a top 6 talent. He has to start producing, because he certainly doesn't offer much more than that.

I think the framing around Monahan (specifically in terms of linemates, and more directly his play) needs to be framed around the team itself rather than #'s compared to league standard. Sutter has the Flames playing a significant possession style, every single forward in the lineup right now is above 50% CF (and FF%) other than Lewis so that being the barometer of success can be considered questionable in some regards. By those possession metrics he is only ahead of Lucic and Lewis in CF%. In xGF% he is ahead of Lucic, Lewis, and Ruzicka *one of thing of note is that if you prorate Ruzicka's xGF it is still lower than Monahan's xGF at 48 games (18.6 vs 23.7). Despite that, Monahan is in a lower tier in terms of actual scoring chance % given he's back to being below Ruzicka, and even Lucic here as the 12th best forward, he's back to ~8th with High danger chances.

Even with OIS% where he is generally lower than other Flames, it's all relative as he's in the 5% range and is within 1 percent of other Flame forwards. By any metric, he is a bottom 4 forward on the Flames (worse peripherals than even Ritchie, though he's just an absolute sinkhole in terms of actual production) and this is all at 5v5. Of course it doesn't reflect impact of different lines (when away from Richardson/Lewis he's farily good possession wise per Dobber Line Tools). I do think he is adjusting to new expectations and style under Sutter, or more so he has adjusted and is now more responsible albeit below average compared to the rest of the team. His saving grace IS the power play, but I think there are a few people on the page that there isn't anything irreplaceable about his performance there beyond a ton of stats that don't seem to lineup with his spot as the middle bumper.

Really, Monahan is where he technically should be. He plays centre, and as a bottom 4 forward on the roster he can squarely be that 3rd line guy that you would like an upgrade on. And as Hox said above, Sutter viewing him as depth/of some use regardless of cap hit cements his use in the lineup. However, purely looking at short stints of him with better players vs. his body of work is inherently misleading in my opinion. He had ~20 minutes with Gaudreau and Tkachuk which would presumably be split between the Carolina game they started together, and post-powerplay shifts wherein they have it in the offensive zone mid-shift and would be expected to outchance opponents in that situation.

Monahan still has some use, expectations just have to fall in line with his lack of finishing and a different play-style to fit his lineup spot vs. the expectations of a contract he was given back in his prime. With adequate expectations I think it's a fairer time to assess what exactly he is in line with what he is told to do and what he can reasonably do.

The problem is that you can't be a bottom 4 forward, and arguably worst centre on the team, while being the highest paid center on the roster.

If he cannot produce with Dube and Tofolli flanking him, I'd say he is on track for a buyout this summer (unless someone takes him on).

 

[Mazatt]

The problem is that you can't be a bottom 4 forward, and arguably worst centre on the team, while being the highest paid center on the roster.

If he cannot produce with Dube and Tofolli flanking him, I'd say he is on track for a buyout this summer (unless someone takes him on).

I can agree with this for the most part with some concessions. I think the revolving discussion around Monahan's salary is downright harmful to the whole discussion around him. In my mind there are a couple key streams for valuing a player. First, you assess their value to the team, their position, what they contribute and what not. Then you discuss the price, is he being paid what he is worth/will he be worth what we are going to pay him. Then; what is the overall value of this player on the market. Right now the discussion on him still needs to be around the first stream. It's laying the foundation of assessing his proper value to the team which leads into his salary. Especially in season it's imperative to an extent to see him for what he is rather than what his salary represents--all in all with the additions the Flames have made Monahan is firmly an offseason issue to handle when it comes to movement.

However, the overall point that your 3rd line centre can't be a bottom 4 player on your roster is right. For the most part with conventional lineup structure and thinking strength comes from the middle you should ideally come up with something like this in terms of team value ranking (then what the Flames have)

2/3	1	2/3		1	4	2
5/6	4	5/6		3	5	6
8/9	7	8/9		8	10	7
11/12	10	11/12		11	9	12

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Not that there is definitive value behind what I have there, Ruzicka and Monahan is arguable, I lean Ruzicka right now, and then same with Lucic where he is not a possession driving player but he scores at even strength and that's valuable. But yeah, issues withstanding... those don't match up. You can get away with some more power from the wings given the top 6 is built properly, imo, but it loses touch when it comes to the value structure lower down.

And that's the tough part. I find it hard to imagine teams won't catch onto this fact and, even if he IS able to produce with Toffoli and Dube, there will be this major apprehension about him because if he does that he usurps Lucic in on-ice value added, which is exacerbated because his price tag hurts his value as a "bounce-back" type guy that garners a late pick. Now I don't think were SOL, Boston, I feel, will be desparate. There are teams going to be exiting the Kadri 'sweepstakes' that might see Monahan/Trocheck as their best offensive options down the middle, but all in all even if he can produce with Toffoli/Dube (whatever line they have together tomorrow) I'm still... worried that what he has is something competitive teams looking to add a centre will be wise to--especially considering he doesn't fit the general mold and notion of a centre expected to drive play.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Serious question, this off-season if you can move either Monahan or Looch, who would you rather keep?

 

[Fig]

Serious question, this off-season if you can move either Monahan or Looch, who would you rather keep?

I think it's more obvious at TDL. Looch is better for playoffs than Monahan.

 

[Bert Mckrakken]

Serious question, this off-season if you can move either Monahan or Looch, who would you rather keep?

Lucic

 

[TheHudlinator]

Serious question, this off-season if you can move either Monahan or Looch, who would you rather keep?

Monahan last time we made the playoffs he led us in points, he has a better chance of being able to let us make a hockey trade with him at the deadline if we wanted and he is a center over wing which is more valuable.