GDT: FLAMES (18-14-7) VS. ISLANDERS (22-16-2) | 7 p.m. MT | TV: Sportsnet West | RADIO: Sportsnet 960

[Yepthatsme]

It's not a gut feeling. I don't know why you want to keep trying to make this about those shot location stats. It's never been about that and we've already had the discussion. Those stats represent the industry's current best approximation of actually watching every chance to determine how difficult it was for the goalie. They are not currently a replacement, and those who use those stats professionally know that.

Giving up shots in different locations should lead to league-average results if the defending team treats them in a league-average way. If you allow guys to find a lane and screen the goalie on point shots, the SV% is going to go down. If the slot shots you allow are uncontested and guys get to pick their spot, SV% is going to go down. If the chances from point blank are frequently breakaways and odd-man rushes instead of off-balance swipes at a loose puck, SV% is going to go down. If your shots from the circle are from seam-passes to one-timers instead of hopeful wristers because other options are shot down, SV% is going to go down.

There have been a handful of games where the other team have allowed the Flames the same quality of chances that they routinely have given up to the opposition, and in those games the Flames have scored a whole bunch of goals. That isn't a coincidence.

What I'm talking about boils down to saying "what the f*** why are we allowing that chance" or "damn, Markstrom didn't have much of a chance on that one" waaay too often every game, even while keeping shot totals low. Last game was a perfect example of it, except Markstrom saved more of those chances than he reasonably should have based on probability. If just one of those breakaways or breakdowns had gone in, then you're looking at a sub-900 SV% yet again through 40 minutes, and not really because of how Markstrom was playing.

Earlier in the season the games were very similar in terms of chances. We'd have given up 5 ten-bellers which were either impossible or near-impossible to save and two would have gone in on like 12 shots. And everyone would be shitting on Markstrom. Just makes me shake my head.

Advanced stats should always be used to support actually watching the games and the eye test. Anyone who’s watched the games this season sees that we have been fantastic at limiting chances, until we have an utterly shocking breakdown in play that results in absolute tap ins. From a statistical standpoint, that punishes goalies hard because it looks like they are allowing goals on the very few chances we give up, when in reality the chances usually leave our goalie stranded so far. We limit slot chances all game, just to allow two breakaways, or a mid slot tip. There’s no way to quantify traffic in front, the difference between a breakaway and a slot shot the goalie had time get square on and attack the shooter, or a cross crease pass that leaves the goalie no chance. Hockey will never be like baseball where variables can be hilariously isolated, Markstrom has been stopping more than what his fair share has been for over a month now.

Games like last night are a prime example like you pointed out, we limited the other team to 25 shots and yet somehow allowed 2 wide open breakaways and multiple chances below the hash marks to shooters with space. Yet to moneypuck, we allowed 5 slot chances all game and kept most the shot chances high and wide so Markstrom only had a bit over 1 goal saved above expected and “should” have allowed 2 goals. He was only credited with 2 high danger shots faced all game to tell you how much advanced stats are lacking in this perspective still, can’t imagine anyone watching the game thinks Markstrom faced two dangerous chances all game.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

you guys are basically proposing that Markstrom guarantees us high end goaltending.

Year 1 as a Flame. 904 sv percentage. His play down the stretch pretty much cost the Flames the playoffs.

Year 2. Great regular season but he was awful in the playoffs.

Year 3. He was atrocious to start the year (by his own admission). He’s certainly turned it round but he’s been below average this year.

The Flames just haven’t given up many chances the past three years. Those are quantifiable statistics. It’s a Sutter system…. and he’s only provided average goaltending despite that.

Basically the expectation should be that he will provide average goaltending because that’s what he is.

Wolf, on the other hand, put up historic numbers. Abd has been the best goalie in the AHL for two years. He’s special. I’ve been saying this for years and nothing in his play has indicated otherwise.