Confirmed Signing with Link: [FLA] Panthers re-sign Sam Bennett (4 years, $4.4M AAV)

[jetsforever]

Should be a steal with how good he looked as a panther

Or a disaster with how he looked before becoming a Panther

 

[abbbaron]

whether the contract will end up being a steal or a burden will depend heavily on the usage of the player(s). Both Bennett and Reinhart thrived in the 1C/2C roles, but neither is about to dislodge Barkov. So at least one of them is going to get throttled and be underutilized

 

[PatrikBerglund]

With Reinhart being acquired and other Panther fans have told me that Lundell is getting called up, is he gonna play wing?

Reinhart is a winger.

 

[Necrobutcher]

Or a disaster with how he looked before becoming a Panther

4x4,4 isn't that much in todays NHL so i find it very unlikely that it would be a disaster.

 

[pb1300]

whether the contract will end up being a steal or a burden will depend heavily on the usage of the player(s). Both Bennett and Reinhart thrived in the 1C/2C roles, but neither is about to dislodge Barkov. So at least one of them is going to get throttled and be underutilized

How’s that? Reinhart will play on Barkov’s wing, and Bennett will center Huberdeau and Duclair/Tippett on the second line.

 

[abbbaron]

How’s that? Reinhart will play on Barkov’s wing, and Bennett will center Huberdeau and Duclair/Tippett on the second line.

For Florida's sake that's realistically the best configuration, but Reinhart just got a taste of being 'the guy' and proved his worthiness in Eichel's absence; it's something that might complicate his current contract negotiations wrt how long term he'll be willing to commit to Florida knowing that he'll likely find himself stuck on the wing when he'd prefer to play the pivot

 

[CherryToke]

Good luck with that

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

I still can't believe the Panthers locked down a center playing 20 minutes a night in all situations for them for only $4.4M, the way he was handled by Calgary saved Florida a ton of coin. If not for mismanagement by Calgary, this would have been a 8yr $60M contract. The Flames literally cost this kid $40M

I would literally make a 6 figure bet that a healthy Sam Bennett scores more than 45 points next year. People using his play as a bottom 6 winger in Calgary as any indication of what this kid can do are as blind as Calgary management.

That's a lot for Bennett coming from a Calgary fan. I think you'll find all Flames fans have an affinity for Benny, but I doubt he puts up more than 40 points next year. Hope he proves me wrong.

You sound like Carolina fans after they traded "40 point Elias Lindholm" to Calgary. Deployment and linemates matter (as does playing the proper position).

He literally has 40 points in just his last 63 games. And 48 of those games were played as a bottom 6 player in Calgary (and he played almost all of them out of position, he was really only played at C during a 10 game stretch in the 2020 playoffs)

When played at center, he has 12 goals and 28 points in his last 25 games over the last calendar year. That might seem unsustainable, but his underlying numbers suggest it's more sustainable than you might think. While it's probably unlikely he maintains a 90+ point pace, the numbers suggest that it's just as unlikely that he'd fall below a 50 point pace.

In those last 25 games as center, he has 89 shots and is +16 (to go along with 99(!) hits). That would put him on pace for 291 shots in 82 game season. With his career average 10.2% shooting percentage, that's a 30 goal pace.

More underlying numbers
To further my point, consider the following from this 25 game sample:
- His ixG was 8.6
- His on ice xGF was 29.7
- Assuming an IPP of 67-73% that would put his expected pace at 28 goals and 66-72 points.

That is probably where we should expect to see him, though this might be a bit on the low end considering:

- In 10 of games from the 25 game sample, he was centering Lucic and Dube playing only 15 mins a night, and he didn't get PP1 duty until the last 4 games when Tkachuk got hurt.
- 15 of those games were in the playoffs, where scoring is notoriously lower.
- Star players like a Huberdeau tend to outperform the expected goals model, so his actual on ice GF should trend a bit higher.

If we adjust for the fact that he's likely to continue to be deployed like a #1 center, playing 20 mins/night with Huberdeau and getting #1 PP time, he's likely to break 30 goals and 70 points in a full season.

 

[KrisLetAngry]

Reinhart is a winger.

Reinhart for Buffalo started playing center and started playing better than he was then a winger.

Could have been a hot streak but at the exact time to switch happened?

 

[WaitingForThatCab]

As long as Bennett is stapled to Huberdeau, Bennett will put up 60+ points while adding a lot of physical play to the Panthers top 6.

Make no mistake, they are likely going to be stapled to each other.

Huberdeau is a phenomenal winger with one real problem: He needs linemates who can click with him and play the game at his speed. This has been a pretty consistent theme throughout his career, and it's why the coaching staff had a tendency to put him out there with Barkov when the offense was cold. You didn't see that after Bennett joined the club, at all. I believe that a major factor in the team's decision to offer this contract to Bennett is that he can center Huberdeau and allow him to flourish.

It's certainly a gamble, though. My feeling is that between this contract and the Verhaeghe contract, one of them is likely to be a little disappointing, and one of them is likely to outplay the contract. I'll be fine with that.

 

[Lays]

That seems very steep for a 15 game sample size.

Yep. Ryan Spooner was PPG for us (NYR) after we acquired him in the Nash trade to Boston at the deadline and then he fell off a cliff. Have to be careful with signings like this

 

[Lays]

Reinhart for Buffalo started playing center and started playing better than he was then a winger.

Could have been a hot streak but at the exact time to switch happened?

In a small sample size Reinhart was good at C but remember he’s not good defensively and he’s a bad skater. That doesnt bode well going forward. Very likely he goes back to wing soon. May play a season or two at C though

 

[JP Mick]

Reinhart for Buffalo started playing center and started playing better than he was then a winger.

Could have been a hot streak but at the exact time to switch happened?

He won’t complain at all playing on Barkov’s wing.

 

[BB88]

Yep. Ryan Spooner was PPG for us (NYR) after we acquired him in the Nash trade to Boston at the deadline and then he fell off a cliff. Have to be careful with signings like this

Spooner was soft 1dimensional C, atleast Bennett brings/adds toughness if he goes for cold streaks offensively.

 

[Lays]

Spooner was soft 1dimensional C, atleast Bennett brings/adds toughness if he goes for cold streaks offensively.

Bennett is fake tough. He only started getting the reputation for being tough because he was disappointing offensively and decided to add a physical element to stay in the league

 

[kerrabria]

Bennett looks way better at C than wing.
That's very different than Reinhart who happens to be a winger who can move to center without missing a beat. Rhino will be a winger until we have an inevitable injury at center, which is when he'll slide over.

 

[kerrabria]

Bennett is fake tough. He only started getting the reputation for being tough because he was disappointing offensively and decided to add a physical element to stay in the league

I have not seen anything that would indicate that.
Gudbranson was fake tough. Petrovic was fake tough.
Bennett both takes and dishes physicality.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Bennett is fake tough. He only started getting the reputation for being tough because he was disappointing offensively and decided to add a physical element to stay in the league

Bennett has been a tough/physical player his entire career, even back in his Kingston days

 

[BB88]

Bennett is fake tough. He only started getting the reputation for being tough because he was disappointing offensively and decided to add a physical element to stay in the league

So he’s nothing like Spooner

 

[Harry Kakalovich]

I've always liked Sam Bennett. It'll be interesting to see how he does.

 

[SufferingCatFan]

Best case is probably solid 2c. Worst case is probably solid 3c. Seems like salary splits difference--low for 2c/ high for 3c

 

[Seanaconda]

If you told Flames fans 2 years ago that Bennet would be making 4.4M per year.... lol.... as if they'd ever take you seriously again.

They would if it was right after the playoffs. Guy has been their best post season player whenever they make it.


Then the flames drop him to 3rd or 4th line and he isn't good at that .

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

They would if it was right after the playoffs. Guy has been their best post season player whenever they make it.


Then the flames drop him to 3rd or 4th line and he isn't good at that .

And move him to the wing . . .

 

[IceManCat]

In a small sample size Reinhart was good at C but remember he’s not good defensively and he’s a bad skater. That doesnt bode well going forward. Very likely he goes back to wing soon. May play a season or two at C though

Not sure where you got the idea that he isn't good defensively? His metrics prove otherwise. The bad skater thing is pretty subjective. You can make an argument that there are plenty of "bad skaters" in the NHL yet they still put up points and play their respective roles successfully. Ekblad is an example of one such "bad skater" who is a clear cut number 1 defenseman and was in Norris contention had he not got hurt.

 

[Sens]

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