Yeah. I think the reality is just...the team is getting old, and slowing down.
I do think when you have a team that feels this "stale", sometimes just trying make a lateral move is worth a shot just to try for a shakeup. Just trying to get some fresher legs in there somehow would be worthwhile. But the core of the team is what it is, and on paper...it's really not too bad at all. It just doesn't seem to be working. So swap around some peripheral pieces. Try to swap one of your wingers for someone else. Do what you can to provide a spark or a different mix somehow to give the coach different options. However...
To me, that also screams for a coaching change. Sullivan has been there forever, and seems to be in a total rut when it comes to providing new answers. Not really an indictment of what he's got out of this squad previously, but sometimes a new voice just lightens things up and changes the tone, provides a spark. Honestly...i think Boudreau would be a really interesting fit on an interim "close out the season" sort of basis. His style of coaching and light mood seem like they might be just the ticket to get the Penguins moving in the right direction again, temporarily.
But the way the team is constructed with regard to age and cap structure...they're probably done as real "contenders". Years of being at the top eventually catch up to a team. That's just the way it goes.
Fans always get upset, but years of trading away picks and prospects to make a push every season and trying to patch holes every year and compete...it leaves the cupboards pretty bare. No top-end young blood coming through. Things get "stale". You can backfill the roster with more older guys who are on paper, "decent" in their roles. But unless you can provide some significant jump and young legs somehow...you're just in a bit a long, slow death-spiral. Waiting to crash and rebuild.
Breaking it down, the "most things look decent on paper" starts to fall apart a bit more the deeper you scrutinize:
Top-6:
The biggest thing to me, is that their Top-6 Wingers are basically built like the "good old days", but Crosby and Malkin are old and can no longer carry mediocre guys that same way. To me it's like:
-Guentzel is fine riding shotgun to Crosby.
-Rakell, Zucker, Rust are such a deeply uninspiring group to fill things out though. Just a big bucket of "blah" and sort of more "Top-9 caliber" wingers. Any of them is fine if you've got one or two of these guys spotted in alongside other dynamic talent, but they're really lacking anything dynamic and explosive. As a group, it really falls flat when it makes up fully 1/2 of your Top-6.
Bottom-6:
The Bottom-6 is also maybe even worse when you really scrutinize:
-Carter is an okay #3C in isolation, even if he's not really the prototypical guy for the role. But he's also old and slowing down which just compounds the problem in the Top-6.
-Kapanen is probably exactly what they need
more of in the lineup, but the coach seems to hate him and he seems to be a bit of a scapegoat for some reason...so...
-McGinn is a pretty solid bottom-6 winger, but he's only going to go as far as the rest of his line takes him - in this case, not very far.
-Blueger seems to have fallen off a cliff.
-Poehling is probably okay, where you can see Hextall at least
trying to inject some youth there, but he's far from "dynamic" in any particular dimension.
-O'Connor, Archibald, Heinen though...what do these guys even do? What are they for?
The Bottom-6 is a place where you can easily make changes for relatively little cost. A place where you can get a bit of a "spark" without giving up much in return. When a team is stale, that might be a good place to start.
Defence:
The blueline also has lots of guys who are "fine" in their roles in isolation, but really underwhelming as a group if everyone is just "fine".
-Letang is still a good #1D, but he's missed a bunch of time.
-Petry is a fine guy to anchor a 2nd pairing.
-Dumoulin is slowing down, but still a Top-4D and fine with the right partner.
-Pettersson is like the definition of a #4D, that's fine.
-Rutta is a "premium" bottom-pairing D but that's about it.
-POJ seems to bring some live legs and that's positive, but he's not much more than a bottom-pair guy.
-Ruhwedel is a serviceable journeyman depth guy but that's about it.
Nobody really "over their head" in their role. But at the same time, there's basically zero "headroom" on anyone if they have to move up the lineup. They're all sort of slotted into a place on the depth chart where they're "fine" as long as everything is going as planned. Taken as a unit...that's just way too much "okay-ness".
Which is exacerbated in perception by what Marino has gone on to do for the Devils. He wasn't
that guy for the Penguins...but he represented the sort of "younger player with headroom" that the entire team is currently lacking.
I think that's the largest problem with Hextall in general here. He's got his hands tied in a lot of ways with the core of a declining team, but when your team looks this "stale" and is floundering like this, you have to be seen to be doing
something. Even if it's small, lateral moves. Do something to distract fans and try to shake up the vibe in the room, give the coach a new thing to try. Do
something. Whereas most of Hextall's "big moves" were back in the Summer...and are currently looking like they moved in the wrong direction. Since then, he's been sitting on his hands while the team spirals.
It's where i agree. It's not really a problem he's likely to solve and it's not really a terrible roster or anything. But it's clearly not working, so you have to find a way to change it up. You're not going to get different results by doing the same thing.