Fertitta shows renewed interest in bringing hockey to Houston (Bloomberg)

[JKG33]

I don't see why 6 divisions of 6 would be so bad. That's enough teams to ensure at least ONE of them is good. Let's add SLC, HOU, QC, and ATL to the mix:

Northwest: SEA, CGY, EDM, VAN, *SLC*, WPG
Southwest: SJ, LA, ANA, LV, PHX, COL
Central: *HOU*, DAL, MIN, CHI, STL, NSH

Northeast: *QC*, MON, OTT, TOR, BOS, BUF
Metro: PIT, PHI, NJ, NYI, NYR, DET
Southeast: *ATL*, FLA, TB, CAR, WSH, CBJ

That looks like a pretty good setup to me! #1 and #2 in each division gets a playoff spot plus two wild cards in each conference.

If AEG is building an arena in San Diego I think they'd get a team before QC. Houston seems ready to go, and then expand to SD/ARI/ATL whenever their respective arenas are ready.

I do like your 6x6 idea though, especially if it brings a return to a 1v8 type format

Pacific: ANA, LA, SJ, SEA, VGK, *SD*
Mountain: CGY, COL, EDM, VAN, *ARI*, *SLC*
Central: CHI, DAL, MIN, STL, WPG, *HOU*
Atantic: NJ, NYI, NYR, PHI, PIT, WSH
Northeast: BOS, BUF, DET, MTL, TOR, OTT
Southeast: CAR, CBJ, FLA, NSH, TB, *ATL*

 

[ponder719]

If AEG is building an arena in San Diego I think they'd get a team before QC. Houston seems ready to go, and then expand to SD/ARI/ATL whenever their respective arenas are ready.

I do like your 6x6 idea though, especially if it brings a return to a 1v8 type format

Pacific: ANA, LA, SJ, SEA, VGK, *SD*
Mountain: CGY, COL, EDM, VAN, *ARI*, *SLC*
Central: CHI, DAL, MIN, STL, WPG, *HOU*
Atantic: NJ, NYI, NYR, PHI, PIT, WSH
Northeast: BOS, BUF, DET, MTL, TOR, OTT
Southeast: CAR, CBJ, FLA, NSH, TB, *ATL*

Can we please never resurrect the Southleast? If we're going to a 6x6 instead of a 4x9, let's go back to non-geographic descriptors, so we can at least mix up the East a bit (the West clustering on the basis of geography makes more sense because of the increased distance, but I'm going to play around with it anyway because I think it's interesting to consider.) I'm just naming these divisions for old HoFers associated with each of the o6, but the specific division names are irrelevant.

Morenz: ANA, LA, SD, DAL, HOU, STL
Shore: SLC, VGK, PHX, EDM, VAN, CGY
Apps: CHI, MIN, WPG, COL, SJ, SEA
Siebert: NJ, NYI, NYR, ATL, TB, FLA
Lindsay: PHI, PIT, CBJ, DET, NSH, CAR
Gilbert: MTL, TOR, BOS, BUF, OTT, WAS

 

[aqib]

As I understood it, the Portland situation is tied up in litigation right now and the speculation has been that she’d be interested once that finishes.

There is going to be a new arena in San Diego. Also, they’d be the third SoCal team, not fourth.

Paul Allen's will calls for both the Trail Blazers to be sold, but doesn't have a deadline. She is dragging her feat on selling. My guess is she just enjoys being a team owner. They've gotten unsolicited offers for the Blazers (Phil Knight being one) and shot them down.

Paul Allen was interested in the NHL. He made a bid for the Penguins and was apparently the backup for the Coyotes if Glendale didn't happen.

 

[JKG33]

Can we please never resurrect the Southleast? If we're going to a 6x6 instead of a 4x9, let's go back to non-geographic descriptors, so we can at least mix up the East a bit (the West clustering on the basis of geography makes more sense because of the increased distance, but I'm going to play around with it anyway because I think it's interesting to consider.) I'm just naming these divisions for old HoFers associated with each of the o6, but the specific division names are irrelevant.

My version of the SE is one of the only divisions with 4 playoff teams this year. This ain't your Daddy's southleast division. Florida, Tampa, Carolina, and Nashville are all very good organizations now. To add, the covid Central division was essentially a resurrected SE division and it was a blast, those teams had some real rivalries.

Geography might not be as important but you've gotta keep some rivalries together too

 

[Tawnos]

Paul Allen's will calls for both the Trail Blazers to be sold, but doesn't have a deadline. She is dragging her feat on selling. My guess is she just enjoys being a team owner. They've gotten unsolicited offers for the Blazers (Phil Knight being one) and shot them down.

Paul Allen was interested in the NHL. He made a bid for the Penguins and was apparently the backup for the Coyotes if Glendale didn't happen.

So is the speculation that she'd be interested in an NHL team or that the new owners of the Blazers and the arena would be? Or both?

 

[ponder719]

My version of the SE is one of the only divisions with 4 playoff teams this year. This ain't your Daddy's southleast division. Florida, Tampa, Carolina, and Nashville are all very good organizations now. To add, the covid Central division was essentially a resurrected SE division and it was a blast, those teams had some real rivalries.

Geography might not be as important but you've gotta keep some rivalries together too

I 100% agree about keeping rivalries together; I don't think you can preserve them all (especially if a team has to switch conferences), but I think the league knows how to keep the most important ones active.

My main thought is that, if possible, you want every division to have markets that are proven winners whether business is booming or lean, to serve as tentpole matchups for teams that need to rely on the opponents as a draw in rough times. The Southeastern US has a bunch of markets that have proven to be a draw when they're good, but what happens if they all hit a skid together? On the flip side, some of the teams with longer histories in good markets draw disproportionately, even when times are weaker. This is why you want to mix things up, at least a bit; keep clusters of high profile rival teams together (the NYC cluster, PHI/PIT/CBJ, MTL/TOR/BOS), and pair those off with other logical partner groups (ATL and the FLA teams, CAR seems a good fit with NSH, BOS/BUF have been together a long time, OTT/WSH, as weird a fit as it sounds, are their nations' respective capitals) that might make for good long-term rivalries.

It's all hypothetical, of course, but alignment and trying to use those tools to lift all boats, as it were, is an interest of mine, so I play around with things like this a fair bit.

 

[aqib]

So is the speculation that she'd be interested in an NHL team or that the new owners of the Blazers and the arena would be? Or both?

I doubt she would go out and buy an NHL team (I am not sure if she would be allowed to use the estate's money to do that) and then sell it as a package.

So it would have to be whoever buys the team and arena to go add a hockey team.

 

[JKG33]

I 100% agree about keeping rivalries together; I don't think you can preserve them all (especially if a team has to switch conferences), but I think the league knows how to keep the most important ones active.

My main thought is that, if possible, you want every division to have markets that are proven winners whether business is booming or lean, to serve as tentpole matchups for teams that need to rely on the opponents as a draw in rough times. The Southeastern US has a bunch of markets that have proven to be a draw when they're good, but what happens if they all hit a skid together? On the flip side, some of the teams with longer histories in good markets draw disproportionately, even when times are weaker. This is why you want to mix things up, at least a bit; keep clusters of high profile rival teams together (the NYC cluster, PHI/PIT/CBJ, MTL/TOR/BOS), and pair those off with other logical partner groups (ATL and the FLA teams, CAR seems a good fit with NSH, BOS/BUF have been together a long time, OTT/WSH, as weird a fit as it sounds, are their nations' respective capitals) that might make for good long-term rivalries.

It's all hypothetical, of course, but alignment and trying to use those tools to lift all boats, as it were, is an interest of mine, so I play around with things like this a fair bit.

I do see what you're saying, and it's what the NHL did by sticking the Florida teams in what was previously the northeast+Detroit. However I think we're at a point now where Tampa, Carolina, Nashville and even Florida have all been consistently good for a while now. I look at the rivalry the Florida teams have with each other, and I know it's not a direct comparison but the SEC region all hates each other in other sports. I could definitely see a future where SE2.0 with Nashville, Carolina, and Atlanta works better than it did 20 years ago.

If you look at strictly cup winners from the 30+ team era, then ironically my proposed NE division is the only one with less than 3 cup wins in that time frame. It wasn't by design but I found it interesting anyway.

Columbus might be the wrong team to stick with them, but I'm not sure what other team that has a heavy enough fanbase that'd also make sense as the 6th team. If we ditch the 6x6 and instead go 4x9 that makes things easier at least.

Pacific: ANA, LA, SJ, SEA, VGK, *SD * CGY, EDM, VAN
Central: CHI, DAL, MIN, STL, WPG, *HOU,* COL, *ARI*, *SLC*
Metro: NJ, NYI, NYR, PHI, PIT, WSH, CBJ, BOS, BUF
Atlantic: DET, MTL, TOR, OTT, CAR, FLA, NSH, TB, *ATL*

 

[ponder719]

I do see what you're saying, and it's what the NHL did by sticking the Florida teams in what was previously the northeast+Detroit. However I think we're at a point now where Tampa, Carolina, Nashville and even Florida have all been consistently good for a while now. I look at the rivalry the Florida teams have with each other, and I know it's not a direct comparison but the SEC region all hates each other in other sports. I could definitely see a future where SE2.0 with Nashville, Carolina, and Atlanta works better than it did 20 years ago.

If you look at strictly cup winners from the 30+ team era, then ironically my proposed NE division is the only one with less than 3 cup wins in that time frame. It wasn't by design but I found it interesting anyway.

Columbus might be the wrong team to stick with them, but I'm not sure what other team that has a heavy enough fanbase that'd also make sense as the 6th team. If we ditch the 6x6 and instead go 4x9 that makes things easier at least.

Pacific: ANA, LA, SJ, SEA, VGK, *SD * CGY, EDM, VAN
Central: CHI, DAL, MIN, STL, WPG, *HOU,* COL, *ARI*, *SLC*
Metro: NJ, NYI, NYR, PHI, PIT, WSH, CBJ, BOS, BUF
Atlantic: DET, MTL, TOR, OTT, CAR, FLA, NSH, TB, *ATL*

Yeah, 4x9 is pretty easy, and I think it's also the path of least resistance until the league eventually expands to 40, at which point I think we start looking at 8x5 as the most likely structure.

But, until then, I think that 4x9 looks solid, though I imagine Boston will scream bloody murder about losing MTL/TOR from their division, but Boston's one of those teams that has a rivalry with damn near everyone. I could see, if Jacobs gets his way, switching Detroit and Carolina for Boston and Buffalo, but either of those variants seems like something the league would sign off on.

 

[KevFu]

My version of the SE is one of the only divisions with 4 playoff teams this year. This ain't your Daddy's southleast division. Florida, Tampa, Carolina, and Nashville are all very good organizations now. To add, the covid Central division was essentially a resurrected SE division and it was a blast, those teams had some real rivalries.

Geography might not be as important but you've gotta keep some rivalries together too

I know I'm repeating myself, and I want to say this quick and in a way where it's not any kind of value judgement on newer brands/markets.

It's math/stats. The amount of fans in a market switching their previous allegiance to their new local team is less than 100%. Newer brands don't have as many generations of fans because the team didn't exist as long to create them.

GRANDPA didn't grow up a CAR, TB, FLA, ATL fan, because they didn't exist then. He'd be a fan of an older team, like TOR, MON, BOS, NYR, PHI, PIT. That's true of all the grandpas in all those new markets.

So when you put CAR, TB, FLA, ATL in the same division together, you're reducing the amount of games grandpa's team visits, increasing the number of games where no grandpas buy tickets at all. Grandpas pay for their tickets, the map doesn't pay the league anything. it's just bad for business to not sell tickets just because of the map.

Obviously this is a generalization. Attendance is the sum of hundreds of tiny variables.

Rivalries come from playing each other for stakes, not the map. Which is why people in Boston, Montreal and Toronto probably hate the Lightning a lot more NOW than they did in 2013.

And I strongly suspect people who would want the six divisions back just want the new brands out of their division so the get more games with their traditional opponents, because you're no different than the general population: less interested in new brands than existing ones.

 

[aqib]

I know I'm repeating myself, and I want to say this quick and in a way where it's not any kind of value judgement on newer brands/markets.

It's math/stats. The amount of fans in a market switching their previous allegiance to their new local team is less than 100%. Newer brands don't have as many generations of fans because the team didn't exist as long to create them.

GRANDPA didn't grow up a CAR, TB, FLA, ATL fan, because they didn't exist then. He'd be a fan of an older team, like TOR, MON, BOS, NYR, PHI, PIT. That's true of all the grandpas in all those new markets.

So when you put CAR, TB, FLA, ATL in the same division together, you're reducing the amount of games grandpa's team visits, increasing the number of games where no grandpas buy tickets at all. Grandpas pay for their tickets, the map doesn't pay the league anything. it's just bad for business to not sell tickets just because of the map.

Obviously this is a generalization. Attendance is the sum of hundreds of tiny variables.

Rivalries come from playing each other for stakes, not the map. Which is why people in Boston, Montreal and Toronto probably hate the Lightning a lot more NOW than they did in 2013.

And I strongly suspect people who would want the six divisions back just want the new brands out of their division so the get more games with their traditional opponents, because you're no different than the general population: less interested in new brands than existing ones.

So why isn't this an issue when the NFL expands to those markets? Or the NBA? MLB hasn't had this issue anywhere but Florida.

 

[BMN]

So why isn't this an issue when the NFL expands to those markets? Or the NBA? MLB hasn't had this issue anywhere but Florida.

The short answer is: Because of the scope. A NFL game stands a good chance of packing the house no matter the two teams because it's the NFL and the NFL is on a higher level than the other three leagues + it's only 8-10 home games a year.

The longer answer is: Tickets to all the games might sell but tickets to your Grandpa's favourite team's game definitely sells at a higher point than the Arizona Cardinals.

Signed, guy who lived in Atlanta and never deigned to go to a Falcons game when the Cowboys were in town but saw the Falcons play the Cards multiple times.

 

[KevFu]

So why isn't this an issue when the NFL expands to those markets? Or the NBA? MLB hasn't had this issue anywhere but Florida.

The other leagues absolutely do have the fan issue. It's just far less significant because the other leagues grew incrementally over a lot longer time period and didn't almost completely ignore the West and South of the US until 1990.

The NHL added FOURTEEN new markets since 1990. MLB added four. All four of those MLB teams have that same problem. It totally exists in Arizona and Colorado as well as Miami and Tampa. It's just way worse in Tampa because their stadium is terrible, and way less in Denver because Denver never had spring training.

The NHL's the only one who put four new teams in the same division together with 0 (SE) or 1 team (PAC) that existed in the 1960s.

The NFL has added four franchises but only three new markets (Vegas, Carolina, Jacksonville). The rest of their divisions all existed in the 1960s/70s. The NHL in 2002 had eight teams who were in a division with only one team that existed 14 years earlier.

 

[StreetHawk]

Paul Allen's will calls for both the Trail Blazers to be sold, but doesn't have a deadline. She is dragging her feat on selling. My guess is she just enjoys being a team owner. They've gotten unsolicited offers for the Blazers (Phil Knight being one) and shot them down.

Paul Allen was interested in the NHL. He made a bid for the Penguins and was apparently the backup for the Coyotes if Glendale didn't happen.

If Allen wanted a team he would have gotten one in the late 90’s had he applied for a team. So don’t think he was ever interested in the nhl.

As for Jody, I doubt she’s of the mindset of adding to the sports portfolio.

Until the blazers and moda are sold I don’t expect Portland to get a team.

 

[StreetHawk]

I doubt she would go out and buy an NHL team (I am not sure if she would be allowed to use the estate's money to do that) and then sell it as a package.

So it would have to be whoever buys the team and arena to go add a hockey team.

Pretty much the whole estate is going to charity. But, no time table on her to have to sell the Blazers and Hawks. If there was, she would have just kept Carroll til May 2025 and sell the Hawks then when the city is no longer entitled to 10% of proceeds of a Hawks sale.

So, don't think she will add to the sports portfolio. Think she's also based out of Seattle and doesn't have Paul's desire to fly down for games in Portland as often as he did. She would go for important events, but rarely to just catch a game there.

 

[GKJ]

Elliotte Friedman on the pod was asked a listener question about Houston and he said he thinks Fertitta is interested in the NHL because there is a second Houston group out there.

 

[OG6ix]

Elliotte Friedman on the pod was asked a listener question about Houston and he said he thinks Fertitta is interested in the NHL because there is a second Houston group out there.

That's interesting. If that's the only reason he wants a team I would be skeptical in awarding him a franchise. Could end up like a potential Atlanta Spirit Group situation if the team starts to lose money and he was never really interested to begin with.

 

[Mightygoose]

Elliotte Friedman on the pod was asked a listener question about Houston and he said he thinks Fertitta is interested in the NHL because there is a second Houston group out there.

That kind of makes sense. A second group would have plans for another arena in the area which Tillman wouldn't want to compete with.

 

[GKJ]

That's interesting. If that's the only reason he wants a team I would be skeptical in awarding him a franchise. Could end up like a potential Atlanta Spirit Group situation if the team starts to lose money and he was never really interested to begin with.

Valid concern. I think that’s why it’s important that Anson Carter is part of, what seems like, the more credible Atlanta group. If Fertitta is real, he should consider the same, which is getting a front-facing hockey man. One of the reasons Carter is invested is because he lives there.

That kind of makes sense. A second group would have plans for another arena in the area which Tillman wouldn't want to compete with.

I don’t know if we ever got a full outline as to what kind of exclusive rights exist for Fertitta in the market.

 

[KevFu]

I don’t know if we ever got a full outline as to what kind of exclusive rights exist for Fertitta in the market.

It was discussed in the thread. The full lease is available in PDF online (minus one intentionally omitted section). The government agency that builds and owns the arena can't subsidize, fund or incentivize or "otherwise assist" a competing indoor sports/concert arena in Harris County.

Essentially, not getting non-hockey revenue from the arena is a non-starter for any other owner, and building your own arena within Harris County COULD be a non-starter as well if you need the Harris County Houston Sports Authority to build it. We're not entirely sure on the last part, but it does stand to reason.

But the lease is 30 years. This is coming up NOW because the window to start talking about a new arena or new lease is about to open.

 

[CHRDANHUTCH]

It was discussed in the thread. The full lease is available in PDF online (minus one intentionally omitted section). The government agency that builds and owns the arena can't subsidize, fund or incentivize or "otherwise assist" a competing indoor sports/concert arena in Harris County.

Essentially, not getting non-hockey revenue from the arena is a non-starter for any other owner, and building your own arena within Harris County COULD be a non-starter as well if you need the Harris County Houston Sports Authority to build it. We're not entirely sure on the last part, but it does stand to reason.

But the lease is 30 years. This is coming up NOW because the window to start talking about a new arena or new lease is about to open.

what it boils down to in essence is the same scenario that Fertitta inherited from Les Alexander when he bought the arena and the Rockets.... it's also why no competing ownership like the Wild were co-tenants there w/ a minority stake to Chuck Watson... until the arena lease between the Aeros and Toyota Center was allowed to expire and MSE relocated it to Iowa

 

[StreetHawk]

It was discussed in the thread. The full lease is available in PDF online (minus one intentionally omitted section). The government agency that builds and owns the arena can't subsidize, fund or incentivize or "otherwise assist" a competing indoor sports/concert arena in Harris County.

Essentially, not getting non-hockey revenue from the arena is a non-starter for any other owner, and building your own arena within Harris County COULD be a non-starter as well if you need the Harris County Houston Sports Authority to build it. We're not entirely sure on the last part, but it does stand to reason.

But the lease is 30 years. This is coming up NOW because the window to start talking about a new arena or new lease is about to open.

Fertitia isn't going to leave a market like Houston. Whether he keeps the team in the same county, well, that's a different story. But, he's not likely to pull a Clay Bennett leaving Seattle for OKC. Saw clearly the difference in valuations between Charlotte, Milwaukee, and Arizona in recent sales. $500 mill diff between all 3 sales.

Lease has a decade or so remaining, so won't get serious until closer to 2030.

 

[KevFu]

what it boils down to in essence is the same scenario that Fertitta inherited from Les Alexander when he bought the arena and the Rockets.... it's also why no competing ownership like the Wild were co-tenants there w/ a minority stake to Chuck Watson... until the arena lease between the Aeros and Toyota Center was allowed to expire and MSE relocated it to Iowa

Right, the only real difference is time.

Salt Lake is jockeying for arena deals leading up to the 2034 Olympics, right?
You've got Smith and Miller trying to get funding to build new MLB stadium and NHL/NBA arena, both of which would be used in the Olympics.

In Houston, there's no Olympics coming in 2034, but the end of the Toyota Center lease is. It opened in October of 2003. We're about to complete year 21 of the lease. Fertitta's talking NHL team because when that lease expires, he no longer has the no-compete clause.

 

[KevFu]

Fertitia isn't going to leave a market like Houston. Whether he keeps the team in the same county, well, that's a different story. But, he's not likely to pull a Clay Bennett leaving Seattle for OKC. Saw clearly the difference in valuations between Charlotte, Milwaukee, and Arizona in recent sales. $500 mill diff between all 3 sales.

Lease has a decade or so remaining, so won't get serious until closer to 2030.

Right, but it's negotiation/leverage. If Fertitta wants a new arena and the City of Houston is like "This building is fine, you should just extend your lease" what does he do? Threaten to move the Rockets.

... and Houston can play hardball: You're going to find a market as big as Houston? Where you gonna go? San Diego is half the size, Tampa is half the size...

What does Houston do if the Rockets leave? PUT AN NHL TEAM IN THE BUILDING!

If Fertitta gets an NHL team before the lease expires, Houston's going to accommodate both teams, aka accommodate HIM.

 

[StreetHawk]

Right, but it's negotiation/leverage. If Fertitta wants a new arena and the City of Houston is like "This building is fine, you should just extend your lease" what does he do? Threaten to move the Rockets.

... and Houston can play hardball: You're going to find a market as big as Houston? Where you gonna go? San Diego is half the size, Tampa is half the size...

What does Houston do if the Rockets leave? PUT AN NHL TEAM IN THE BUILDING!

If Fertitta gets an NHL team before the lease expires, Houston's going to accommodate both teams, aka accommodate HIM.

Honestly, extending the current lease as is, would be Fertitia's best option. Maintain the no-compete clause to ensure that he has less competition for entertainment dollars.

I mean, PHI, Bos, STL, even other arenas like in POR, Van, MON, Tor are older and are not likely to be replaced with a new one. Just spend the money for a renovation.

2003 arena, puts it within 2-3 years of any of the ones in Minny/CBS/Dal/Glendale (more location than anything)/Winnipeg from 2000-2004 and NJ in 2007. How many of those would be abandoned for another arena vs doing a 9 figure renovation?

In NBA, there are the ones in SA, OKC (built bare bones), Memphis, and Charlotte, from 2002 to 2005.