Ference to have season-ending hip surgery.

[The Nuge]

That rental could be Brent Burns for example. And the trade may be made with a contract in place for the following year. Or you could be getting paid to eat some other teams bad contract so that they can make another move. The point is you just don't know what doors you may be closing.

There is also the bonus overage issue to consider. If Ference's contract is on the books it makes an overage due to bonuses for McDavid, Draisailt and Nurse much more likely. Ference's deal could trigger overages that exceed the buyout carryover.

If we're tight enough to the cap that we would need to buy out Ference, there's no way we can afford Burns the following year. Draisaitl is looking at like a $3 million raise, which is Korpi's salary, and then some, and we don't have anyone else coming off the books

 

[McTrashBoat]

Do you smoke before or after cardio?

You don't smoke during?

 

[Fourier]

Speaking of bonuses, how are we on that front? Who's eligible and going to get it?

Here are the bonuses:

McDavid: $2.85M
Draisaitl: $2.475M
Pakarinen: $82K
Klefbom: $350K
Nurse: $850K

Right now none of these guys would hit the schedule B bonuses which are the big ones. McDavid, Draisaitl, Klefbom and Nurse should get some Schedule A bonuses. So maybe $1.5-2M or so in total?? Had McDavid played all year this may well have been closer to $4M.

Of course if McDavid or Leon can finish in the top 10 in points per game that number (1.5-2M) jumps up a lot. Possibly by $2M. There is a reasonable chance McDavid will do so. Draisailt could hit either the ppg or the assist but I think this is less likely for him.

 

[Fourier]

If we're tight enough to the cap that we would need to buy out Ference, there's no way we can afford Burns the following year. Draisaitl is looking at like a $3 million raise, which is Korpi's salary, and then some, and we don't have anyone else coming off the books

You don't know how this plays out though. No one does. Maybe they qualify Schultz, or sign a UFA for a year. That could put their cap number within Ference's salary of the top. As for Burns, they can manufacture the space fairly easily. Good buy Schultz and you save $4M. Fayne also has a $3.65M cap hit. Plus next year they will have bonuses that are on their hard cap which will expire as well because they will be over the 7.5% bonus cushion by about $5M, perhaps more if they have a top 2 pick this year that makes the team.

What I would say is this. Had Ference not had a real injury then I doubt they would have gone the LTIR route. Given that his injury is obviously very real there is a good chance that the LTIR route will be forced on them. IF they have a choice, the closer they start to the cap the more a buyout makes sense. But if they don't change the roster much this year it is likely the LTIR is the better cap choice. It's just not automatic that it is.

 

[czar99]

OMG! I honestly forgot he was on the team...

 

[The Nuge]

You don't know how this plays out though. No one does. Maybe they qualify Schultz, or sign a UFA for a year. That could put their cap number within Ference's salary of the top. As for Burns, they can manufacture the space fairly easily. Good buy Schultz and you save $4M. Fayne also has a $3.65M cap hit. Plus next year they will have bonuses that are on their hard cap which will expire as well because they will be over the 7.5% bonus cushion by about $5M, perhaps more if they have a top 2 pick this year that makes the team.

What I would say is this. Had Ference not had a real injury then I doubt they would have gone the LTIR route. Given that his injury is obviously very real there is a good chance that the LTIR route will be forced on them. IF they have a choice, the closer they start to the cap the more a buyout makes sense. But if they don't change the roster much this year it is likely the LTIR is the better cap choice. It's just not automatic that it is.

See but that's related to this summer, and not next. If you can get rid of Fayne this summer, let Schultz walk, etc, there's enough cap space that it doesn't really matter what you do with Ference. If you are so tight to the cap this summer that Ference would have to be bought out, you simply do not have cap space to resign a rental next summer anyways. And I think it's safe to say that any UFA with a comparable salary to Burns won't be signing a 1 year deal, so that's irrelevant

 

[shoop]

You don't know how this plays out though. No one does. Maybe they qualify Schultz, or sign a UFA for a year. That could put their cap number within Ference's salary of the top. As for Burns, they can manufacture the space fairly easily. Good buy Schultz and you save $4M. Fayne also has a $3.65M cap hit. Plus next year they will have bonuses that are on their hard cap which will expire as well because they will be over the 7.5% bonus cushion by about $5M, perhaps more if they have a top 2 pick this year that makes the team.

What I would say is this. Had Ference not had a real injury then I doubt they would have gone the LTIR route. Given that his injury is obviously very real there is a good chance that the LTIR route will be forced on them. IF they have a choice, the closer they start to the cap the more a buyout makes sense. But if they don't change the roster much this year it is likely the LTIR is the better cap choice. It's just not automatic that it is.

In terms of cap hit, I don't see any advantage to going the buyout route.

Let's say they go LTIR no matter what. If they aren't close to the cap they don't get the 2.17 M (2/3rds of Ference's salary next season) relief next year that they would have with a buyout. But they don't have the 1.08M cap room on the 2017-18 season which they would have with a buyout. So the team is better off in 2017-18 and they weren't close to the cap in 2016-17.

If they are at the cap in 2016-17 they get can get an exemption for Ference's salary, as you explained in an earlier post.

Strictly in terms of cap hit the Oilers are better off going the LTIR route than buyout.

It will be an extra 1.08M out of Katz's pocket in theory, although insurance may also be involved.

 

[Fourier]

In terms of cap hit, I don't see any advantage to going the buyout route.

Let's say they go LTIR no matter what. If they aren't close to the cap they don't get the 2.17 M (2/3rds of Ference's salary next season) relief next year that they would have with a buyout. But they don't have the 1.08M cap room on the 2017-18 season which they would have with a buyout. So the team is better off in 2017-18 and they weren't close to the cap in 2016-17.

If they are at the cap in 2016-17 they get can get an exemption for Ference's salary, as you explained in an earlier post.

Strictly in terms of cap hit the Oilers are better off going the LTIR route than buyout.

It will be an extra 1.08M out of Katz's pocket in theory, although insurance may also be involved.

Did you read my previous post where I laid out two reasons why a buyout might be preferable?

1) Impact on bonus overages
2) Cap space available at the deadline.

And they don't get an exemption from Ference's cap hit. The whole cap hit stays. That is the whole point.

Either option could be best but you won't know which until at least after July 1 of this summer.

 

[shoop]

Did you read my previous post where I laid out two reasons why a buyout might be preferable?

1) Impact on bonus overages
2) Cap space available at the deadline.

And they don't get an exemption from Ference's cap hit. The whole cap hit stays. That is the whole point.

Either option could be best but you won't know which until at least after July 1 of this summer.

Yes, I did. That's why I referred to it specifically in my post.

No, you didn't mention 1) as explicitly in your previous post as you did here and 2) was refuted directly in my post.

Did you read my post? Your point is inaccurate. That's why I posted it.

I

 

[Fourier]

Yes, I did. That's why I referred to it specifically in my post.

No, you didn't mention 1) as explicitly in your previous post as you did here and 2) was refuted directly in my post.

Did you read my post? Your point is inaccurate. That's why I posted it.

I

What part of my post is inaccurate with respect to 2)? And again, LTIR does not give you an exemption from the cap hit. That is a misconception. Also LTIR only happens if a team is over the cap by replacing the individual's salary. The scenario I described in 2) is accurate.

 

[THall4]

He's still on the payroll next year unless he goes the 'Pronger' way out, IE LTIR for the rest of his career, then takes a front office job with the Oilers.

He gets paid and gets saved the embarrassment of being bought out, the Oilers get the roster spot. Win-win.

I'm absolutely certain there are some kind of cap savings involved with LTIR too.

Found this article snippet on Horton, a similar situation:

As we explained, the LTIR contract is not added on top of any additional cap space the team has. If the Leafs have $3 million in cap space, they don’t have $8.3 million in space once Horton goes on LTIR. They are, however, allowed to exceed the cap by up to $2.3 million in that case. That is why, at the start of next season, the team would have two options to maximize the space availed by Horton’s LTIR status: One is to be right up against the cap (as tight as possible) with Horton on the roster, before placing him LTIR on day one of the season. Or, they can place him on LTIR before the first day of the season and build a roster that’s over the cap by as close to $5.3 million as possible to maximize their space.

Read more at: https://mapleleafshotstove.com/2015...jury-reserve-as-it-pertains-to-nathan-horton/

So technically no, we don't gain any space, but in a different way, we do, because we'd be able to exceed the upper limit of the cap.

I can really see him moving into an Ambassador role or something..if not with the Oilers..in Boston.

 

[BoldNewLettuce]

What part of my post is inaccurate with respect to 2)? And again, LTIR does not give you an exemption from the cap hit. That is a misconception. Also LTIR only happens if a team is over the cap by replacing the individual's salary. The scenario I described in 2) is accurate.

Random question;

Would LTIR not allow us to...for example...Sign Laine to a deal and stick him in AHL since he is from overseas...and then move ference to the LTIR during the season. Then you could call-up Laine on Ference's cap hit.....no? Tehnically Matthews is overseas too, no?

 

[Fourier]

Random question;

Would LTIR not allow us to...for example...Sign Laine to a deal and stick him in AHL since he is from overseas...and then move ference to the LTIR during the season. Then you could call-up Laine on Ference's cap hit.....no? Tehnically Matthews is overseas too, no?

Yes you can do this.

 

[SometimesY]

I don't want to buy him out. It keeps cap hit on for additional time. How do we know that the injury isn't what caused his poor play? Maybe he heals over the summer and comes back to help the team and lend a vet presence?

In any case, I hope he heals completely, because Ference is one guy who won't be happy unless he can stay active with his family.

 

[Broilers]

Season ending injury could actually potentially be bad for the Oilers. If he's still injured come offseason they wont be able to buy him out. And of course the easy answer to that is 'well he can just spend all of next year on LTIR". But he actually needs to be hurt for that. If he recovers, we'll need to keep him on the roster again.

Your conclusion is realistic. Hip surgery takes a lot of time to heal so off season buy out probably will not happen