Tennis: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic: How many majors will they have and who will hold the record

[Maestro84]

This is a good point. People forget that at his most dominant, Federer was not as much of a darling to everyone as he is now. It took time and some big losses too for public to catch on and figure out they should appreciate him. Eventually, people will soften towards Djokovic as well.

When Fed dominated from 2004-07 people were more in awe of his ability than “adoring” him. I feel like starting in 2008, once he was dethroned from number one for the first time in years, handed some really really tough losses against top young players (Rafa, Nole, Murray and Del Potro) and actually looked human for once did the public really begin supporting Federer at every corner.

Also, US tennis fans had a bit of a love/hate feeling towards Fed during his early/peak days as well. Fed dethroned Sampras at Wimbledon at just 19 years old, and he beat Agassi (a universal crowd favourite) in big tournaments a lot during Andre’s final competitive years on tour (similar to what Nole has done to him the last few years) and the next American tennis hope, Andy Roddick, was absolutely OWNED by Roger for his entire career

 

[Hadoop]

This is a good point. People forget that at his most dominant, Federer was not as much of a darling to everyone as he is now. It took time and some big losses too for public to catch on and figure out they should appreciate him. Eventually, people will soften towards Djokovic as well.

Indeed. A prime example of this is the Australian Open semi-final in 2005 between Federer and Safin, whereby you could argue the crowd was at most 50-50 split between the two.

 

[Florbalista]

When Fed dominated from 2004-07 people were more in awe of his ability than “adoring” him. I feel like starting in 2008, once he was dethroned from number one for the first time in years, handed some really really tough losses against top young players (Rafa, Nole, Murray and Del Potro) and actually looked human for once did the public really begin supporting Federer at every corner.

Also, US tennis fans had a bit of a love/hate feeling towards Fed during his early/peak days as well. Fed dethroned Sampras at Wimbledon at just 19 years old, and he beat Agassi (a universal crowd favourite) in big tournaments a lot during Andre’s final competitive years on tour (similar to what Nole has done to him the last few years) and the next American tennis hope, Andy Roddick, was absolutely OWNED by Roger for his entire career

Exactly. I think the way Nadal smashed him in the FO08 final kinda lit up the fuse. I for one (and many other people I know) believed that Federer would beat Nadal at RG before Nadal beats Federer at Wimbledon. The idea of Nadal beating Federer at Wimbledon looked quite insane up until their 07 five-setter (although Nadal had his chances in 06 already). We kinda underestimated Nadal's ability to grow as a player (he was a grunting no-serve clay fluke) and perhaps slightly overestimated how much of an upper hand Roger had on grass.

Wimbledon 08, it happened. Let's not forget Borg's Wimbledon five-in-a-row record. Up until that final, Federer looked like he would shatter it, along with many other records (he was sitting at No. 1 for fifth straight year, which was, and still remains crazy). So I recall the crowd cheering more and more in Nadal's favor as that final progressed. Plenty of people (not just Bjorn) wanted to see him lose, simply because he had appeared probably even more inhumanely good than Djoker ever did for so long, if that's possible.

The moment I believe everyone began to like him was the AO09 final after which he burst into tears. Since he surpassed Sampras' GS record at Wimbledon later that year, albeit beating Andy (who probably should have won), I think most Americans just gave up on hating him before US Open 09.

I think that by USO 09, they were sold, and all they wanted was their own Fedal final. Bam.

I don't think Fed had many US-based haters left after getting hammer-charmed by Don Juan.

What Djoker has been guilty of for eight years is replaying the DelPo USO 09 scenario over and over again. On top of that, he has no true rival and no great story. For that short period following his loss of form and elbow injury, I think people almost liked him, but that's because they probably did not expect he would become so good so quick again. Worse; he let them re-taste a bit of Fedal while he was away. But before you know it, once more, it's veni vidi vici again and again.

As soon as he becomes human and starts losing, people who grew up watching him will realize "whoa, he represents my era, and he's almost gone'. And they will finally see what a gem he was all along.

 

[Florbalista]

Indeed. A prime example of this is the Australian Open semi-final in 2005 between Federer and Safin, whereby you could argue the crowd was at most 50-50 split between the two.

He was so in control of most matches that seeing anyone really challenging him was a rare stuff. He also seemed to have a good portion of the crowd against him playing Hewitt at Wimbledon in 2004. I was bored too. Not even the prettiest game will ever make up for the missing thrill of competition.

That Safin-Federer match is insane btw.

 

[kihei]

He was so in control of most matches that seeing anyone really challenging him was a rare stuff. He also seemed to have a good portion of the crowd against him playing Hewitt at Wimbledon in 2004. I was bored too. Not even the prettiest game will ever make up for the missing thrill of competition.

That Safin-Federer match is insane btw.

That Safin/Federer semi in Australia is among my Top Five favourite matches to watch of all time. The cat and the mouse keep switching back and forth and the level of play is jaw dropping.

 

[Florbalista]

That Safin/Federer semi in Australia is among my Top Five favourite matches to watch of all time. The cat and the mouse keep switching back and forth and the level of play is jaw dropping.

I see. It also perfectly sums up their characters. It had those little stories too. Safin trying to lob Federer so many times and failing every single one -- except THAT one. Then feeling so smug that he actually gave props to Feds when he thought there was no way he was losing it, and Roger battling his way back. It could well be the best semifinal match I have ever seen, maybe rivaled by Nadal-Nando in 2009.

 

[Florbalista]

One things that surely does not help Novak's cause is the media.

I have just read this in awe:

Fabio Fognini praises Federer and Nadal, says he'd like to coach Kyrgios

The title says that 'Fabio Fognini praises Federer and Nadal', but if you actually read the article, he said:

"I always admired a lot Pete Sampras, but I am amazed by the quality and consistency of (Novak) Djokovic, Rafa and Roger (Federer)!"

I mean...

 

[alko]

Somehow surprising, Nadal won US Open. That means:

Federer - 20, 37 years old
Nadal - 19, 33 years old
Djokovic - 16, 32 years old

 

[JianYang]

Djokovic 21 (best ever)
Federer 20 (greatest ever)
Nadal 20 (greatest on a single surface)

....and won't that be a debate.

What's the difference between best ever, and greatest ever?

 

[discostu]

Nadals chances of ending up with the most major titles has taken a huge boost.

One thing stopping him is if he doesn't keep winning at RG, either through injury or if someone like Thiem really breaks through.

The other is if Djokovic can consistently win at about 2 titles a year for the next few years to bridge the gap.

Medvedev having the best showing in a GS final gives some belief that the top 3 reign may not go on forever, but, it's hard to know when the field will finally take over.

I think the big 3 are all favourites going into the AO. They'll all have recovery time leading in.

 

[kihei]

What's the difference between best ever, and greatest ever?

Yeah, I mulled that over before I wrote it. "Best ever" is the more objective descriptor of the two; "greatest ever" incorporates more intangibles. Given the evidence after the US Open, I think it is likely that Nadal will end up with at least 21 Grand Slam titles (who would bet against him to win two more French Open titles alone?). At which point the GOAT argument shifts in his favour (at least by my standards) in terms of who is the best player in history. Grand Slams are the cardinal measuring stick, and Rafa will have trumped Roger on that all-important metric. But if you ask the casual fan who is the best ever my guess will be that many of them, maybe a majority, will claim Federer still. He did all this stuff first, which counts for something and is actually a big deal as whoever does it first tends to stick in the public imagination. He transcends tennis. I know a lot of casual fans who don't know the difference between a drop shot and a half volley, but they refer to Federer as "Roger" and follow his progress in major tournaments. He has a permanent bond with these fans because of the host of exciting matches that he has played and because of how he comports himself on and off the court; he seems to have become a heroic figure.. If you look at faces in the crowd, both Nadal and Federer elicit enormous support, but I think most fans admire Nadal but are absolutely taken to another realm by Roger. Sometimes their faces look like they are having a religious experience. He is beloved to fans in a way that other players aren't, and so he will be remembered by fans in a way that other players won't. That's what I would call "greatness" and there are no shortage of such examples in sport. Here are a half dozen off the top of my head.

Greatest home run hitter: Babe Ruth
Best home run hitter: Barry Bonds

Greatest miler: Roger Bannister
Best miler: Hicham El Guerrouj

Greatest heavyweight fighter: Muhammad Ali
Best heavyweight fighter: Mike Tyson (?)

Greatest long jumper: Bob Beamon
Best long jumper: Mike Powell

Greatest soccer player: Pele
Best soccer player; Maradona

Greatest basketball player: Michael Jordam
Best basketball player: Lebron James

My two favourite atheletes all time are Nadal and Federer. But I root a little bit more for Federer. I bite my nails for Roger. With Nadal, I am flabbergasted by his dominance, but I don't watch him play as much as Roger. Rafa's excellence is kind of boring--too many players, especially on clay, are mere cannon fodder for him Though in a good way for him, his early round matches become predictable, repetitive. In short he doesn't fire the imagination the way that Roger does, and unless he goes crazy and wins four or five more Slams, Rafa never will. So if it comes to that next year or whenever, I will have no trouble seeing Rafa as the best and Roger as the greatest. In fact, maybe that's the fairest way for it to end up.

 

[Asheville]

Yeah, I mulled that over before I wrote it. "Best ever" is the more objective descriptor of the two; "greatest ever" incorporates more intangibles. Given the evidence after the US Open, I think it is likely that Nadal will end up with at least 21 Grand Slam titles (who would bet against him to win two more French Open titles alone?). At which point the GOAT argument shifts in his favour (at least by my standards) in terms of who is the best player in history. Grand Slams are the cardinal measuring stick, and Rafa will have trumped Roger on that all-important metric. But if you ask the casual fan who is the best ever my guess will be that many of them, maybe a majority, will claim Federer still. He did all this stuff first, which counts for something and is actually a big deal as whoever does it first tends to stick in the public imagination. He transcends tennis. I know a lot of casual fans who don't know the difference between a drop shot and a half volley, but they refer to Federer as "Roger" and follow his progress in major tournaments. He has a permanent bond with these fans because of the host of exciting matches that he has played and because of how he comports himself on and off the court; he seems to have become a heroic figure.. If you look at faces in the crowd, both Nadal and Federer elicit enormous support, but I think most fans admire Nadal but are absolutely taken to another realm by Roger. Sometimes their faces look like they are having a religious experience. He is beloved to fans in a way that other players aren't, and so he will be remembered by fans in a way that other players won't. That's what I would call "greatness" and there are no shortage of such examples in sport. Here are a half dozen off the top of my head.

Greatest home run hitter: Babe Ruth
Best home run hitter: Barry Bonds

Greatest miler: Roger Bannister
Best miler: Hicham El Guerrouj

Greatest heavyweight fighter: Muhammad Ali
Best heavyweight fighter: Mike Tyson (?)

Greatest long jumper: Bob Beamon
Best long jumper: Mike Powell

Greatest soccer player: Pele
Best soccer player; Maradona

Greatest basketball player: Michael Jordam
Best basketball player: Lebron James

My two favourite atheletes all time are Nadal and Federer. But I root a little bit more for Federer. I bite my nails for Roger. With Nadal, I am flabbergasted by his dominance, but I don't watch him play as much as Roger. Rafa's excellence is kind of boring--too many players, especially on clay, are mere cannon fodder for him Though in a good way for him, his early round matches become predictable, repetitive. In short he doesn't fire the imagination the way that Roger does, and unless he goes crazy and wins four or five more Slams, Rafa never will. So if it comes to that next year or whenever, I will have no trouble seeing Rafa as the best and Roger as the greatest. In fact, maybe that's the fairest way for it to end up.

Your nonsensical explanation officially went down the toilet with that beaut.

Nadal becomes greatest, best, whatever arbitrary label you've created IF he wins 2020 AO, which gives him career slam 2x, the only such achievement.

 

[Uncle Rotter]

When it comes to decline, the question is not if, but when, and how rapid will it be.

 

[KoozNetsOff 92]

Nadal and Djokovic will both have more than Federer. Pretty impressive since, in addition to Federer and Murray (for a bit), they had to battle each other their entire careers and didn't have the luxury of beating up on the Hewitt's and Roddick's.

 

[kihei]

I'd be stunned if Nole gets five more Slams. As I said in another thread, he would be the first person in tennis history to win 5 slams after the age of 32. Ken Rosewall is the only player to win 4 Slams after that age. It would be some gigantic feat, and I don't think time will let him get away with it.

 

[kihei]

You don't beat the champ by drawing with him. Rafa needs two more GSs in my book, which I think he will get, maybe as early as next June. If he does that, I will be the first to congratulate him. I'm hoping for a 20/20 standoff, but that seems increasingly unlikely.

 

[discostu]

I'd be stunned if Nole gets five more Slams. As I said in another thread, he would be the first person in tennis history to win 5 slams after the age of 32. Ken Rosewall is the only player to win 4 Slams after that age. It would be some gigantic feat, and I don't think time will let him get away with it.

Everything about the big 3 is so unprecedented, that I don't think you can say that it won't happen because it hasn't happened before.

I think the pathway is there for Novak to keep winning titles. He's the youngest of the three, and the field is still struggling to catch up.

He'll need to fight off injuries, as well as stay motivated. He won two titles this year, and is probably still the most likely to win multiple titles next year. If he's does that, winning a few more in the following years seems possible.

I think though that if Nadal can keep winning slams like this, that it may not become enough.

It would be impressive though if all three get 20 or more slams.

 

[kihei]

Everything about the big 3 is so unprecedented, that I don't think you can say that it won't happen because it hasn't happened before.

I think the pathway is there for Novak to keep winning titles. He's the youngest of the three, and the field is still struggling to catch up.

He'll need to fight off injuries, as well as stay motivated. He won two titles this year, and is probably still the most likely to win multiple titles next year. If he's does that, winning a few more in the following years seems possible.

I think though that if Nadal can keep winning slams like this, that it may not become enough.

It would be impressive though if all three get 20 or more slams.

With each year time passes, and things will get a little more even. If anybody wins five titles after 32 years of age, I like Rafa's chances better than Novak's chances. Nadal has the French which is basically a gimme, and his health has been excellent this season. He went through a three and a half year period when he didn't win a single hard court tournament (early 2014 to the US Open in 2017). But now look at him. He beat the player with the best hard court record for the year in the Open final. And, I dunno, but I always thought that Rafa's motivation was off the charts compared to Nole or anybody else for that matter.

 

[Hadoop]

Massive twist this USO as 1) Nadal took a Hard Court slam and 2) Medvedev showed that he is ready to challenge the big 3 as soon as next year.

Updated predictions:

Nadal 22
Djokovic 20
Federer 20

 

[Sakicfan]

I'd be stunned if Nole gets five more Slams. As I said in another thread, he would be the first person in tennis history to win 5 slams after the age of 32. Ken Rosewall is the only player to win 4 Slams after that age. It would be some gigantic feat, and I don't think time will let him get away with it.

Not an easy task, but it's still possible.

Older athletes are now in much better shape than they were before, so I don't think we can look at how athletes did in previous decades to forecast how current athletes will do in the future year.

That and there has never been a tennisman as good as the Big 3 (except maybe for Borg, who retired early). Look at Serena, who has been just as dominant on the WTA: She has won 6 Slams after reaching 32. Federer himself would have won about 8 Slams past 32 if it wasn't for Novak and Rafa (AO17, WI17, AO18 and I'm giving him WI14, WI15, US15, AO16, WI19). Until a NextGen player steps up, Older Novak will have easier paths to championships since Roger will eventually step down.

 

[discostu]

With each year time passes, and things will get a little more even. If anybody wins five titles after 32 years of age, I like Rafa's chances better than Novak's chances. Nadal has the French which is basically a gimme, and his health has been excellent this season. He went through a three and a half year period when he didn't win a single hard court tournament (early 2014 to the US Open in 2017). But now look at him. He beat the player with the best hard court record for the year in the Open final. And, I dunno, but I always thought that Rafa's motivation was off the charts compared to Nole or anybody else for that matter.

Great points. Nadal does seems like he's the most fiercely competitive, but he's also the one that may push his body too far at any point. I also think that Djokovic is not as outwardly competitive, but that fire is there. The fact that he's remained in the conversation with Nadal and Federer speaks to his competitive nature. He was never supposed to hangout around with these guys.

If he sees a path to rack up more titles and leap ahead, I think he'll be motivated to do so. He's also played a lot of tennis, and his body may not hold up.

There's still a lot to play out at this stage though.

 

[Florbalista]

Should Nadal's body break down, I can see him playing only the clay part of the year. And with his chops on the dirt, it's not unreasonable to think he could just come, warm up with a couple of tournaments, then grab his RG title and then rest for the remainder of the year. For at least a couple of years deeper down the thirty-something slope, resting more and playing less can help prolong one's competitive years. Of course, after a long-enough spell, rust from the leisure sets in and you're done either way, but for a brief, why not.

 

[discostu]

I wonder if he'll play either Indian Wells or Miami this year. He withdrew from IW at the SF stage, and cancelled Miami. He seemed to be in rough shape, but ended up playing a lot on clay.

But, to then do extremely well in the summer hard court season, I wonder what changed. And, if he was able to stay healthy for the summer swing due to changes to his training, is there a chance we'll see a stronger performance at the Australian Open from him?

 

[I am not exposed]

I don' think Federer wins another GS tbh.

 

[kihei]

I don' think Federer wins another GS tbh.

I agree, but I have been wrong about this before.