Tennis: Federer, Nadal, Djokovic: How many majors will they have and who will hold the record

[TCTC]

I think Federer is still one of the favorites for Wimbledon. There just aren't many players who excel on grass. Most of the younger players seem to do better on slower courts.

 

[Hadoop]

I think Federer is still one of the favorites for Wimbledon. There just aren't many players who excel on grass. Most of the younger players seem to do better on slower courts.

Definitely some merit to this. Grass is an adjustment and the veterans do it better.

 

[kihei]

A factor that none of us has taken into account: Andy Murray, the only man (2016) to interrupt the Nole/Rafa/Roger year-end #1 dominance since 2004. If he returns to anything like his old self, he could make the accumulation of GS titles by the Big Three more difficult to achieve. Big "if," though.

 

[discostu]

A factor that none of us has taken into account: Andy Murray, the only man (2016) to interrupt the Nole/Rafa/Roger year-end #1 dominance since 2004. If he returns to anything like his old self, he could make the accumulation of GS titles by the Big Three more difficult to achieve. Big "if," though.

The fact that he still seems pretty cautious about his injury I think means that a full return to form may not be possible.

But, it would be impressive to see him get there

 

[I am not exposed]

The fact that he still seems pretty cautious about his injury I think means that a full return to form may not be possible.

But, it would be impressive to see him get there

It's impressive he is playing at all considering what I have read about the injury. I have doubts he can recover to a level where he's competing for a GS. Will shall see though.

 

[YEM]

I am by no means comparing myself to Andy Murray, but I've had the same exact injury/progression: 1 hip scope followed by a hip resurfacing a couple years after (I'm about 7 yrs older than him. I play all the sports I used to play with no pain [mostly racquetball] at all, but I'll just never be the same, you know? I also unconsciously don't "push it" toward my bad leg when playing racquet sports...

 

[Maestro84]

A factor that none of us has taken into account: Andy Murray, the only man (2016) to interrupt the Nole/Rafa/Roger year-end #1 dominance since 2004. If he returns to anything like his old self, he could make the accumulation of GS titles by the Big Three more difficult to achieve. Big "if," though.

Imagine Murray winning another slam before the next gen does lol. In all seriousness though, I think Murray is sadly finished. His injury is very severe and the fact that he can still play on the tour is amazing

 

[Maestro84]

I think I posted a guess on this thread earlier but it’s changed again lol

Nadal - 22 (2 more French Opens and another HC/grass slam if he stays healthy and the next gen still can’t break down the unbreakable door)
Federer - 20 (at his extremely old age, I still think he’ll make a couple deep runs here and there but ultimately, no cigar)
Djokovic - anywhere between 17-22 (I’ll be honest, I have no clue about Djokovic)

 

[Say Hey Kid]

A factor that none of us has taken into account: Andy Murray, the only man (2016) to interrupt the Nole/Rafa/Roger year-end #1 dominance since 2004. ...

McEnroe feels that year end #1 is more important than majors.

 

[kihei]

McEnroe feels that year end #1 is more important than majors.

Well, he is wrong. McEnroe has more funny ideas than a hoot owl. January 1 is an arbitrary day picked because it is the start of a new year. No break points are saved, no overheads returned, no half volleys scooped out. Theoretically a player could be #2 or worse the rest of the year. win or do well in a couple 0f Asian tournaments and, voila, is #1 when the magic date arrives. For McEnroe I guess this stuff just helps him feel current, but his comment does nothing except muddy the waters unnecessarily.

 

[discostu]

Well, he is wrong. McEnroe has more funny ideas than a hoot owl. January 1 is an arbitrary day picked because it is the start of a new year. No break points are saved, no overheads returned, no half volleys scooped out. Theoretically a player could be #2 or worse the rest of the year. win or do well in a couple 0f Asian tournaments and, voila, is #1 when the magic date arrives. For McEnroe I guess this stuff just helps him feel current, but his comment does nothing except muddy the waters unnecessarily.

It see some value in that as a metric, but number of weeks at number one is a similar, yet superior. If the tennis ranking system reset at the beginning of the year for some reason, then taking the final ranking would have value.

 

[alko]

Updated after AO:

Federer - 20
Nadal - 19
Djokovic - 17

 

[YEM]

even tho Roger/Rafa/Nole were all in the quarterfinals it did feel like a bit of a changing of the guard with Zverev and Thiem in the semis. And the final was well within Thiem's grasp, but he just ran out of gas late.

 

[Say Hey Kid]

Agreed. There is a crack in the wall.

 

[alko]

Now it comes Wimbledon and French Open. First one is the Djokovic and Federer playground, the second one is owned by Rafa. Lets see, it it will continue.

 

[JianYang]

even tho Roger/Rafa/Nole were all in the quarterfinals it did feel like a bit of a changing of the guard with Zverev and Thiem in the semis. And the final was well within Thiem's grasp, but he just ran out of gas late.

Agreed. Thiem just seems painfully close to making the major breakthrough.

Medvedev is the other guy who I think can make a major breakthrough. He's very difficult to put away because he gets to so many shots. If he can switch his mindset to being a bit more of an aggressor, he can be a lethal opponent against anyone. I feel like he also has great stamina, but he's also has a very poor record in 5th sets. Again though, I think that's more of a mental hurdle than actual fitness issue.

I think thiem is the one most poised to make the breakthrough, but medvedev can be even better than him.

 

[kanuck87]

even tho Roger/Rafa/Nole were all in the quarterfinals it did feel like a bit of a changing of the guard with Zverev and Thiem in the semis. And the final was well within Thiem's grasp, but he just ran out of gas late.

It's bound to happen at some point. Father Time never loses. It's sad that no one has actually taken the throne from them, but instead has to wait for them to age out, and even then, this has taken far longer than this process usually takes. They shouldn't still be dominant at their respective ages.

 

[HurricaneFanatic]

As long as the French Open is played, Rafa will get his. I could see him winning that 5 more times easily, and maybe sneak in another US Open, Wimbledon, or Aussie?
I think Rafa ends up with the most, but no one will consider him the GOAT because of French Open titles. That said, would be nice if Rafa got another one at Wimbledon and Aussie.

 

[Hadoop]

Updated predictions after the just-concluded French Open. Unsure whether Novak will even get to 20 now (IMO the crowd will NOT be on his side at any major next year given the multiple faux-pas he's committed this year), but fairly confident that Rafa will end up with the most majors when all is said and done.

Nadal: 22 ('21 FO, '22 FO)
Federer: 20
Djokovic: 20 ('21 AO, '21 Wimby, '22 AO)

 

[Maestro84]

Unless Novak goes on a spree, which I certainly wouldn't rule out, Nadal has put himself in prime position to be the winner of this race. However, I would like him to win another non-RG title once again to officially erase any doubt:

- 1 more Australian Open would give him the double career slam (only player in OE to do so)
- 1 more Wimbledon would give him an abundance of records (3+ slams on each surface, he'd be the only player to win 3+ majors at RG, WI and USO, and he's likely going to tie Borg's record of winning 3 Channel Slams assuming he also wins the French one month before hand)
- 1 more US Open would put him at a tie for first in OE giving him at least the co-record holder at two different slams

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I don’t know why people are changing their opinion on this because Nadal won on a surface he’s better than anyone on. Djokovic is still the favorite three of the four tournaments per year, he’s had less injury issues than Nadal, and is younger. Even if he’s three behind, I don’t see why he can’t and won’t catch Nadal.

 

[Maestro84]

I don’t know why people are changing their opinion on this because Nadal won on a surface he’s better than anyone on. Djokovic is still the favorite three of the four tournaments per year, he’s had less injury issues than Nadal, and is younger. Even if he’s three behind, I don’t see why he can’t and won’t catch Nadal.

The first sentence is why. From the looks of it, Rafa will just keep making it rain at RG for the near future and if he picks off even one of the other three majors, no ones gonna catch him.

 

[kihei]

Updated predictions after the just-concluded French Open. Unsure whether Novak will even get to 20 now (IMO the crowd will NOT be on his side at any major next year given the multiple faux-pas he's committed this year), but fairly confident that Rafa will end up with the most majors when all is said and done.

Nadal: 22 ('21 FO, '22 FO)
Federer: 20
Djokovic: 20 ('21 AO, '21 Wimby, '22 AO)

This sounds like a good guess to me, though I might go with Nole for 19. Though Rosewall, Federer and now Nadal have done it, three majors is still a lot to ask at his age, and I think the competition is going to get better, too, on both grass and hard court surfaces.

 

[Maestro84]

This sounds like a good guess to me, though I might go with Nole for 19. Though Rosewall, Federer and now Nadal have done it, three majors is still a lot to ask at his age, and I think the competition is going to get better, too, on both grass and hard court surfaces.

Comp will get better on HCs but not on grass. Besides the big 3, no one on tour is a good grass court player right now.

All of the younger players have terrible track records on the lawns and that includes Thiem, Medvedev, Stefanos, Shapo, and Zverev. Grass is also Stan's worse surface, while some of the former top 10 players like Cilic, Berdych and Tsonga - all very good grass courters - are long past their primes. Raonic should be a deadly player on grass but he's hurt way too often, and same with Kyrgios but the dude is a straight up nutjob/headcase.

 

[kihei]

Comp will get better on HCs but not on grass. Besides the big 3, no one on tour is a good grass court player right now.

All of the younger players have terrible track records on the lawns and that includes Thiem, Medvedev, Stefanos, Shapo, and Zverev. Grass is also Stan's worse surface, while some of the former top 10 players like Cilic, Berdych and Tsonga - all very good grass courters - are long past their primes. Raonic should be a deadly player on grass but he's hurt way too often, and same with Kyrgios but the dude is a straight up nutjob/headcase.

You are probably right. However, Felix was 9-3 on grass in 2019 with wins over Raonic, Dimitrov, Krygios, and Tsitsipas. He's got the potential, maybe not the head, though. I could see Sinner developing a grass game, though it could take longer than two years, I wouldn't dismiss Fritz completely yet, but I don't know if he has the temperament for it. Tsitsipas has just barely a winning record on grass, but he has never beaten anyone of note; still, he does have a lot of skill and doesn't seem afraid of volleying. Opelka looks a long shot, but he is ahead of Isner in terms of his development, so he deserves some consideration. So, mostly slim pickings, but not a completely empty cupboard. Plus, Nole is not getting any younger either.