F Shane Wright - Kingston Frontenacs, OHL (2022 Draft) Part 2

[tmlmatus]

It's weaker in the top end but this draft has an Incredible depth. I think it has the potential to be like the 2003 draft in a few years.

I agree with that. There is no doubt in my mind that someone will come away with an absolute stud of a player in the first round.

 

[lomiller1]

i mentioned that outlier peak in my first comment. Maybe a GPG pace was the outlier. These peaks happen...look at Caufield before St-Louis and after. The graph presented shows a clear upward trend in points as the season progressed. Every single player in the NHL can have ups and downs during the season. Wright's trendline is neither flat nor is it trending downward...it is inarguably rising.

Why does that logic not apply to the peak you are touting as evidence he's progressing as a player?


TBH I find this thread reminiscent of the Yakupov thread in 2012. There were a lot of legitimate questions about the presumptive 1OA with Edmonton fans attacking anyone who questioned how good he was. Please note I'm not suggesting Wright is another Yakupov, even his detractors in that thread didn't think Yak would fail as hard as he did.


I think Wright should probably go 1OA but only because the rest of the top end talent in this draft is also a underwhelming. If this were most other draft years he wouldn't go 1OA because someone else would overtake him for that spot the way Heisher overtook Nolen Patrick, who much like Wright has been penciled in a 1OA and a sure fire #1C in the NHL for years prior to the draft. The main difference in that draft was that there were a bunch of other players that obviously really good who could take over the #1 spot, something that's lacking this year.

As a prospect Wright is probably the weakest 1OA since Yakupov. Tbh if he were in the 2015 draft I'd have ranked him outside the top 10, but 2015 had an extradentary number of high end prospects. In a more typical draft I could see him being comparable to the guys who end up drafted in the 3-5 range. Keep in mind that not all prospects develop equally and guys who deserved to be in the 3-5 range on draft day have turned into amazing players.

 

[FrankMTL]

Why does that logic not apply to the peak you are touting as evidence he's progressing as a player?


TBH I find this thread reminiscent of the Yakupov thread in 2012. There were a lot of legitimate questions about the presumptive 1OA with Edmonton fans attacking anyone who questioned how good he was. Please note I'm not suggesting Wright is another Yakupov, even his detractors in that thread didn't think Yak would fail as hard as he did.


I think Wright should probably go 1OA but only because the rest of the top end talent in this draft is also a underwhelming. If this were most other draft years he wouldn't go 1OA because someone else would overtake him for that spot the way Heisher overtook Nolen Patrick, who much like Wright has been penciled in a 1OA and a sure fire #1C in the NHL for years prior to the draft. The main difference in that draft was that there were a bunch of other players that obviously really good who could take over the #1 spot, something that's lacking this year.

As a prospect Wright is probably the weakest 1OA since Yakupov. Tbh if he were in the 2015 draft I'd have ranked him outside the top 10, but 2015 had an extradentary number of high end prospects. In a more typical draft I could see him being comparable to the guys who end up drafted in the 3-5 range. Keep in mind that not all prospects develop equally and guys who deserved to be in the 3-5 range on draft day have turned into amazing players.

How is Wright weaker than Hischier?

 

[lomiller1]

agree. However this OA and other offensive players ate up offensive starts and PP time. I think that Wright would have scored way more on a weak team where he was the main go-to. He hardly played with Edmonds, Frasca or Chromiak. He still got almost 1.5PPG while getting a lot of defensive duties and played with 16 year olds for a significant stretch. I think the coach asked him to do things for the team which he did. It did not translate into a blow-out season and clearly the coaching did not take Kingston as far as it should have.

In most years the 1OA is the main go-to no matter how much other talent they are surrounded with, and players on weak teams struggle to put up numbers because they don't have any help. On weak teams you usually need to look at what % of a teams goals a player was involved in because their absolute point totals are usually lacking as weak teams tend not to score much.

 

[BenchBrawl]

Hell, picking Top 3, nevermind 1st overall, is a nightmare this year.

But as a Montreal fan, I'd still roll the dice on Wright.

His season was extremely worrying, but no one else really came out raging to overtake him. Cooley and Slaf, they're good prospects but they aren't safe either.

Wright has the physical strength, IQ and elite shot, plus a bunch of obscuring circumstances happened that could hide a much bigger talent than what he's shown this year. Because of all this, and keeping in mind nobody else really stepped up, I would gamble on him.

 

[lomiller1]

How is Wright weaker than Hischier?

You're assuming I thought Hischer was the best prospect in 2017... IMO Peterson had an amazing year and should have been ranked as the best prospect.

That said, Hischer was involved in roughly 45% of his teams goals in his draft year, Wright only factors into 35% of his teams goals this year. Crosby in his draft year was close to 60%.

 

[lomiller1]

For instance, if we assume for argument's sake that someone like Toews is his most likely scenario, with someone like MacKinnon being his "10% chance high end ceiling" and Strome his "10% chance low end floor", I just don't see how you could describe the Strome comparison as a realistic possibility at that low of a percentage compared to the 90% he projects to either be Toews or MacKinnon.

Strome was a better player in his draft year than Wright was this year. He's an example of how even really good prospects can fail to live up to expectations (and of course lesser prospects can exceed expectations) If he can underachieve why can't Wright?

 

[lomiller1]

Marco Rossi is a small 5’9 center, though. Every small player drops even if the point production is there.

I don’t think many scouts look at points total that much.

The evidence is that they don't look at point totals enough. It's been show that doing something as simple as picking the 17-18 year old CHL player with the highest point game would have outperformed half of NHL teams wrt to their draft record. Having the 15th best record in the draft isn't likely to win you many cups so it's not something I'd recommend but it's damming to the scouting department of teams that can't even outperform such a simple formula.

 

[Rob Sense]

there is plenty of reason to think its a weak class.

look at Marco Rossi as an example. 120 points in 56 games (7 games less then Wright), drafted 9th overall in 2020

looks at Slakovksy's Liiga production, rated 2nd overall.

thinking it is weak doesn't make is so. Nobody will be able to judge how strong or weak this draft is for at least 5 years. Stating something like this before anyone has played a game in the NHL is ridiculous.

 

[Rob Sense]

In most years the 1OA is the main go-to no matter how much other talent they are surrounded with, and players on weak teams struggle to put up numbers because they don't have any help. On weak teams you usually need to look at what % of a teams goals a player was involved in because their absolute point totals are usually lacking as weak teams tend not to score much.

So how does your theory work with Lafreniere (top scorer on weak team) or Nathan Mckinnon who was 4th in scoring on the Halifax team? There is no set rule on how an 18 year old in his draft year will perform on his team...weak or strong. Every case is different.

 

[DramaticGloveSave]

Funniest argument to me is that he shaved at 15. As if that means he was more developed than the rest of the CHL at 15 and then somehow the rest of the league caught up.

The guy had a rough year due to the pandemic. It’s as simple as that. The only legit argument against him is the potential that that lost year hurt his development, and maybe it did, but thankfully he has the character to make up for it even if it causes him to play some catch-up (which he did this year).

 

[Rob Sense]

You're assuming I thought Hischer was the best prospect in 2017... IMO Peterson had an amazing year and should have been ranked as the best prospect.

That said, Hischer was involved in roughly 45% of his teams goals in his draft year, Wright only factors into 35% of his teams goals this year. Crosby in his draft year was close to 60%.

And McKinnon was only involved in 21% of his teams goals (75 of 347)

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Our view of percentages are different then. Because something as small as 10% of it happening isn't "realistic", it's more improbable. Realistic, to me, means a good chance of it happening. If something only has a 10% of happening, that's not really a good chance of it happening.

IMO, "realistic chance" would be used in situations where I think that's probably the most likely type of player he becomes. "Outside chance" would be a more apt description for describing his 10% ceiling and 10% floor.

For instance, if we assume for argument's sake that someone like Toews is his most likely scenario, with someone like MacKinnon being his "10% chance high end ceiling" and Strome his "10% chance low end floor", I just don't see how you could describe the Strome comparison as a realistic possibility at that low of a percentage compared to the 90% he projects to either be Toews or MacKinnon.

If I told you there was a 10% chance you were going to die tomorrow, I think you would probably consider that a "realistic possibility".

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

LOL at anyone who thinks montreal doesn't pick Shane Wright....

\thread

 

[tmlmatus]

thinking it is weak doesn't make is so. Nobody will be able to judge how strong or weak this draft is for at least 5 years. Stating something like this before anyone has played a game in the NHL is ridiculous.

So why even be in this forum? Come back in 5 years and we can discuss everyone properly.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

LOL at anyone who thinks montreal doesn't pick Shane Wright....

\thread

This might age poorly, i will be coming back to this post after the draft
and see who got the LOL.

It isn't as clear cut thing as most think it is.

 

[AlexGretzchenvid]

This might age poorly, i will be coming back to this post after the draft
and see who got the LOL.

It isn't as clear cut thing as most think it is.

Future captain of the canadiens

 

[SlafySZN]

Future captain of the canadiens

…Is Nick Suzuki

 

[majormajor]

Funniest argument to me is that he shaved at 15. As if that means he was more developed than the rest of the CHL at 15 and then somehow the rest of the league caught up.

I personally was growing a mustache and strap years before I was done growing, so I'm sympathetic to that. Judging a prospect's maturity by their facial hair is an old scouts trick by the way, not the most scientific approach. At the same time you can look at Wright's actual physical development, and he doesn't seem to be much bigger or stronger than he was at 15. Seems about the same.

The guy had a rough year due to the pandemic. It’s as simple as that. The only legit argument against him is the potential that that lost year hurt his development, and maybe it did, but thankfully he has the character to make up for it even if it causes him to play some catch-up (which he did this year).

We really don't know that. Just about everyone he was playing against also missed a season. Wright actually played in more elite tournament action than most and presumably got the best training in the world. A lot of players improved massively despite the year off.

That's not to say that there wasn't something holding Wright back that he'll be break through at some point, I just don't think that thing was the pandemic.

 

[Rob Sense]

So why even be in this forum? Come back in 5 years and we can discuss everyone properly.

We watch our team at the beginning of the season even if we do not know if they will win the Cup at the end.

 

[Peasy]

And McKinnon was only involved in 21% of his teams goals (75 of 347)

Yeah and he only played 44 games. I dont get why hab fans keep bringing up Mackinnon as some type of comparison. Theyre not even in the same realm of prospect. You know theres more to prospects than just raw points right? Mackinnon has athletic abilities and traits that Wright will never have. The fools that put all their stock in points are the same fools that ranked Drouin ahead of Mackinnon.

 

[Angler]

Yeah and he only played 44 games. I dont get why hab fans keep bringing up Mackinnon as some type of comparison. Theyre not even in the same realm of prospect. You know theres more to prospects than just raw points right? Mackinnon has athletic abilities and traits that Wright will never have. The fools that put all their stock in points are the same fools that ranked Drouin ahead of Mackinnon.

Go back and read the post. Context matters, he wasn't comparing the players, he was using MacKinnon to show that the statistic another poster is using against Shane Wright is not necessarily a statistic that holds much value. Reading comprehension can go a long way in a thread like this.

 

[lomiller1]

This might age poorly, i will be coming back to this post after the draft
and see who got the LOL.

It isn't as clear cut thing as most think it is.

I think this may be more like 2011, where the players competing for 1OA were a little underwhelming but with a lot of really good players taken later on in the first round. Maybe a good year to trade down if you can get extra 1st round picks.

 

[lomiller1]

And McKinnon was only involved in 21% of his teams goals (75 of 347)

You need to exclude the 24 games he didn't play in.

McKinnon put up over 1.7 points per game in he CHL and had an elite skill set. Players in that point range with those skills frequently become elite NHL players. Players in the 1.4 - 1.5 point per game range are much more of a mixed bag, with far fewer elite players and far more players that don't pan out at all.

Yeah and he only played 44 games. I dont get why hab fans keep bringing up Mackinnon as some type of comparison. Theyre not even in the same realm of prospect. You know theres more to prospects than just raw points right? Mackinnon has athletic abilities and traits that Wright will never have. The fools that put all their stock in points are the same fools that ranked Drouin ahead of Mackinnon.

Drouin was an elite level prospect as well, but that's not a guarantee of becoming an elite NHL player. As A prospect MacKinnion played with speed had strength on his skates and showed a higher level of compete. These, IMO, are things that bode well for prospects. CHL players who like to slow things down and control play that way often find they can't do that at the NHL level. If you can do that successfully in a means pro league that can be a different story.

Side note, but playing with speed isn't the same thing as how well a player skates. Playing with speed means using your speed all the time to get to a better position on the ice instead of waiting and trying to react. IMO Wright does way to much of the latter. Fortunately for Montreal they already have a center who plays fast, so Wright can fit into the second line spot comfortably.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If I told you there was a 10% chance you were going to die tomorrow, I think you would probably consider that a "realistic possibility".

If I was going to have surgery and my doctor said I shouldn't be concerned because there's a 90% success rate of the surgery, I wouldn't look at the 10% chance of dying as a realistic possibility any more than I'd look at a 1% chance of dying as a realistic possibility.

When the percentages are that small, it's more of a "small chance of happening" than "well, I better say goodbye to everyone I love".