F Shane Wright - Kingston Frontenacs, OHL (2022 Draft) Part 2

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[Nabrules]

He’s a fantastic prospect, projects in my eyes as an elite 1C in his prime. Yet it’s also true that he’s gotten off to a slow start and hasn’t been as good as a lot of us thought, even factoring the time he missed last season. Fully expect him to pick it up though.

 

[Kshahdoo]

2+1 in the yesterdays game.

 

[Kshahdoo]

And then another pointless game in 5-4 victory...

 

[03HockeyFan]

Completely underwhelming. For people that

And then another pointless game in 5-4 victory...

Another pointless game where he was pretty much invisible (despite loads of ice time) in 5-4 victory…

 

[Kshahdoo]

What a chance he'll make the WJC team, I wonder. He's not even close to top CHL centers right now. As far as I understand Hockey Canada has always been pretty reluctant about taking underagers to WJC.

 

[Peasy]

Doubt he or bedard really have that great of a chance at making the wjc team right now.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

How many first overall pick forwards out of the CHL didn't lead their teams in scoring in their draft year? MacKinnon and who else?

 

[03HockeyFan]

What a chance he'll make the WJC team, I wonder. He's not even close to top CHL centers right now. As far as I understand Hockey Canada has always been pretty reluctant about taking underagers to WJC.

He captained the U18s in Texas and dominated, despite missing games. I highly doubt Hockey Canada passes on him for WJC.

Would also be an admission by CHL and Hockey Canada that they possibly made a mistake granting exceptional status. Not going to happen. Shane Wright will play WJC.

 

[kyle44]

How many first overall pick forwards out of the CHL didn't lead their teams in scoring in their draft year? MacKinnon and who else?

Rick Nash, Nail Yakupov and Nico Hischier (by 1 point), but all missed a lot of hockey. Yakupov and Hischier had far and away the best points-per-game on their respective teams though. Nash basically equaled the points-per-game of the team's leading scorer.

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Rick Nash, Nail Yakupov and Nico Hischier (by 1 point), but all missed a lot of hockey. Yakupov and Hischier had far and away the best points-per-game on their respective teams though. Nash basically equaled the points-per-game of the team's leading scorer.

Technically McDavid also as Strome led but McDavid had higher ppg

 

[Breakfast of Champs]

Technically McDavid also as Strome led but McDavid had higher ppg

Edit - fun fact McDavid did not lead his team in scoring for any of his ohl seasons or his gthl season underaged (ho sang) - the first time he led his own team in pts since bantam was when he won the art Ross at 19/20 years old

 

[03HockeyFan]

Here are some interesting stats on Wright after 19 games played.

Currently he's ranked 38th in goals per game / 35th for assists per game / 35th for points per game in OHL

If you look at the same pool of players and remove powerplay points and shootout goals (i.e. 5 v 5 and PK only) the stats look as follows:

• 88th in goals per game (0.11 per game), 40th in assists per game (0.42), 81st in points per game (0.53)
• His linemates - Edmonds scores at a rate of 0.47 per game (4.3x the pace of Wright) and Chromiak scores at a rate of 0.35 per game (3.2x the pace of Wright). With Edmonds and Chromiak combining for 0.82 goals per game, Wright should be delivering an assist at a pace of 0.42 per game (i.e. roughly gets an assist on every other goal scored by his linemates)

Compare this to a player like Luca Del Bel Belluz. Roughly two months older than Wright. Much less hype. No Hockey Canada support / opportunities during the pandemic:

• Currently ranked 21st in goals per game / 43rd for assists per game / 31st for points per game in OHL

If you look at the same pool of players and remove powerplay points and shootout goals (i.e. 5 v 5 and PK only) the stats look as follows:

• 24th in goals per game (0.37 per game or 3.4x the pace of Wright), 8th in assists per game (0.63 per game or 1.5x the pace of Wright), 8th in points per game (1.00 per game or 1.9x the pace of Wright)

Long story short, Wright's slow start appears to be worse than the surface numbers suggest.

 

[03HockeyFan]

To put a finer point on this...

An exceptional status player that has high-end linemates and gets loads of 5v5 time scores at a rate of 0.11 per game. This is basically 3rd/4th line production, and if you normalize for time on ice the stats for Wright would be worse.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

To put a finer point on this...

An exceptional status player that has high-end linemates and gets loads of 5v5 time scores at a rate of 0.11 per game. This is basically 3rd/4th line production, and if you normalize for time on ice the stats for Wright would be worse.

Wright certainly hasn't gotten off to a good start, but where are you getting the bolded from?

Wright's most common linemate (Chromiak) is also off to a relatively slow start, and the other winger has been a mixed bag of a bunch of players because they haven't found a fit yet with Zayde Wisdom not returning from the Flyers' system.

For most of the season (didn't catch the past two, so not sure if it's changed), Edmonds, Frasca and Arcuri have been a line. So I'm not sure if you're under the impression Wright's been playing with those guys all year. Otherwise, I'm not sure who these "high end linemates" are.

 

[03HockeyFan]

Chromiak scores at a rate of 0.35 per game (excl. PP and Shoot-Out). That's 32nd in the league and more than 3x Wright. I would suggest that's not the stats of a 4th line plug. Same for any of Edmonds, Frasca, Arcuri.

You can't possibly suggest that Wright's production of 0.11 per game (excl. PP and shoot-out) is remotely good given the time on ice he gets. It's absurdly low.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

Chromiak scores at a rate of 0.35 per game (excl. PP and Shoot-Out). That's 32nd in the league and more than 3x Wright. I would suggest that's not the stats of a 4th line plug. Same for any of Edmonds, Frasca, Arcuri.

You can't possibly suggest that Wright's production of 0.11 per game (excl. PP and shoot-out) is remotely good given the time on ice he gets. It's absurdly low.

You didn't even address the issue I had with your post. I literally said Wright's off to a slow start. I was commenting on this idea he's playing with high-end linemates.

 

[03HockeyFan]

You didn't even address the issue I had with your post. I literally said Wright's off to a slow start. I was commenting on this idea he's playing with high-end linemates.

Chromiak scores at a rate of 0.35 per game (excl. PP and Shoot-Out). That's 32nd in the league and more than 3x Wright. I would suggest that's not the stats of a 4th line plug. Same for any of Edmonds, Frasca, Arcuri.

Read the bold text. It addresses your concern that Wright has bad linemates.

 

[ottsabrefan]

Chromiak scores at a rate of 0.35 per game (excl. PP and Shoot-Out). That's 32nd in the league and more than 3x Wright. I would suggest that's not the stats of a 4th line plug. Same for any of Edmonds, Frasca, Arcuri.

You can't possibly suggest that Wright's production of 0.11 per game (excl. PP and shoot-out) is remotely good given the time on ice he gets. It's absurdly low.

I would at least make sure you know who Wright's linemates are before ripping him. He plays with Chromiak and largely Soto (a 16 year old underage rookie). I would agree he doesn't look like himself especially in the speed category but there is a reason he is projected 1st overall, got exemption status at 15 and had better numbers than McDavid that year. My feeling is he has some sort of nagging injury that he is playing through that is slowing him down (just my guess, no inside knowledge). Regardless, he is still showing elite vision, shooting, and plays both ends of the ice. Expect his numbers to rise shortly when he gets his key linemate back (I'm sure your calculations didn't adjust for a disruption of wingers, nor the weight of the world on his shoulders).

 

[Antiillafire]

Chromiak for me has been incredibly disappointing, for a player in his age 19 season after having such a great LAK camp. He’s playing like he did for Slovakia at the WJC, disappears for large stretches. Not saying that this should be an excuse for Wright but I think that there is room for improvement across the board.

 

[Poppy Whoa Sonnet]

Wright certainly hasn't gotten off to a good start, but where are you getting the bolded from?

Wright's most common linemate (Chromiak) is also off to a relatively slow start, and the other winger has been a mixed bag of a bunch of players because they haven't found a fit yet with Zayde Wisdom not returning from the Flyers' system.

For most of the season (didn't catch the past two, so not sure if it's changed), Edmonds, Frasca and Arcuri have been a line. So I'm not sure if you're under the impression Wright's been playing with those guys all year. Otherwise, I'm not sure who these "high end linemates" are.

Wisdom is returning soon right? Maybe that will lead to increased production.

 

[MrHeiskanen]

It's interesting looking at Kingston solely from a stats perspective and seeing our 6th rounder from 2021 Arcuri outproducing Wright. 6 months age difference too.

 

[Hanji]

His production shouldn't be predicated on having higher-end linemates. A player of his supposed calibre should be able to produce reasonably high numbers with mere average players around him. As has been stated, it's not like Chromiak, Edmonds, Frasca, Arcuri are talentless pluggers.

If his scoring escallates only when Wisdom returns, it's still a red flag. That's if he isn't playing with an injury that is seriously affecting his game, which I'm more and more inclined to be the case.

 

[NZ Hockey]

I'll admit I haven't had much opportunity to watch Wright this year but this conversation doesn't shock me at all. The minute I saw how much ice time he lost last year I immediately questioned the impact it would have on his development.

What, he played 5 games for Canada in the U18? That's it? Other players from his draft class found ways to get ice time elsewhere when the OHL went down?

Why are so many people just automatically conditioning themselves to disregard the impact of Wright's 20-21? Just because he's "exceptional" doesn't mean any player wouldn't be hurt by losing so much time in D-1 year? That's a devastating loss of development.

I've also seen a heck of a lot of highly touted prospects over the years who just didn't live up to their hype and they didn't lose a year of development at his age. So I'm not at all sold on Wright being a lock for #1 in this draft, even though virtually every other talking head seems to be.

We'll see what Wright does in the course of the rest of the season, but count me in the watchful/skeptical group at this point. I think he'll be a player for sure but he's no sure-bet franchise/generational player to me at this stage.

 

[Peasy]

He captained the U18s in Texas and dominated, despite missing games. I highly doubt Hockey Canada passes on him for WJC.

Would also be an admission by CHL and Hockey Canada that they possibly made a mistake granting exceptional status. Not going to happen. Shane Wright will play WJC.

Bruh they gave that status to Sean Day and Joe Veleno. Just because he was granted exceptional status doesnt mean hes guaranteed to be on the WJC team at the age of 17 lol.