F Rutger McGroarty - University of Michigan, NCAA (2022, 14th, WPG)

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Promoted to the U18’s and immediately thrown on the top line. Pretty impressive

I saw Pronman tweet the same thing. It’s misleading. The 18’s have a whole line out of the lineup and they had games three days in a row while the 17’s had none. Instead of bringing in players from outside, which is clearly harder this season, they took two kids from the younger team.

It suggests he’s highly rated among that team, but it does not mean he’s permanently promoted, unless you have info that’s not public saying that.

 

[bigdog16]

I saw Pronman tweet the same thing. It’s misleading. The 18’s have a whole line out of the lineup and they had games three days in a row while the 17’s had none. Instead of bringing in players from outside, which is clearly harder this season, they took two kids from the younger team.

It suggests he’s highly rated among that team, but it does not mean he’s permanently promoted, unless you have info that’s not public saying that.

Pronman never said he was promoted. Just said he was debuting

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Sorting through the comparisons, I see the Benn one and the Tavares one. Another I considered was Pacioretty, but I find it hard to not compare him to Leon Draisaitl. I think his offensive ability is that elite. He’s a magician with the puck. His shot/playmaking/speed of thought/stick skills are all at that elite level. If he skated better, he’d be no worse than the consensus 2OA for this draft.

I don’t think he’s a bad skater. He’s an effective skater without his skating being a real threat to go by anyone. He also already has good size and an NHL build. He’s not a bad defensive player either. He’s played the PK this year and looks good there.

I’m not sure about his position. He’s played LW all year, but I don’t see any obvious reason he cannot be a center. The NTDP tends to pick too many centers, which relegates some of them to wing full time for two years. I think Rutger could be the type of player we see move back to the middle once he reaches college hockey.

It’s going to be a really good draft. I don’t know if he’s a top five caliber of pick. Maybe he could maximize at 4-5, but he looks more like a pretty safe bet to go 6-10 with easy first line winger upside and a chance he moves back to the middle and can be a high end 1C.

 

[MMC]

Best US draft prospect since Jack Hughes?

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Best US draft prospect since Jack Hughes?

I don't think you are going to get much consensus on this, at least not yet.

My personal opinion is that his teammate Ryan Chesley is the best US draft prospect since Matthews, so better than Jack Hughes (I wasn't as high on Jack Hughes as most), but there hasn't been an Eichel or Matthews since 2015 and 2016. Some of the early hype suggests Cole Eiserman in the 2024 draft might be that next Eichel/Matthews level player. There are a bunch of players right under that level in the next tier, and it's anyones pick who they prefer.

But I do think Rutger is the best American forward in his draft, and a potential star in the NHL, if he can stay in the middle of the ice and slightly improve his skating.

 

[montreal]

From last nights BioSteel All-American Game,

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

From last nights BioSteel All-American Game,

I rarely re-watch plays, but this was such a good shot that I re-watched it. His shot is so good. Absolutely froze the goalie. Hard, accurate, and a quick release.

His scoring ability is really impressive. He's one of these guys you could see being a dominant scorer in the NHL. Passing, shooting, stick skills, puck protection, hockey sense. It's all there to be one of the top scorers in the NHL, and I say that with no exaggeration.

 

[Ed Ned and Leddy]

I rarely re-watch plays, but this was such a good shot that I re-watched it. His shot is so good. Absolutely froze the goalie. Hard, accurate, and a quick release.

His scoring ability is really impressive. He's one of these guys you could see being a dominant scorer in the NHL. Passing, shooting, stick skills, puck protection, hockey sense. It's all there to be one of the top scorers in the NHL, and I say that with no exaggeration.

I think McGroarty (and Chesley fwiw) could definitely shake-up the top end of the draft this year. Maybe the Wright/Lambert 1-2 is set in stone, but I could definitely see a GM betting on McGroarty over Savoie, especially if he shows skating improvements next year.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I think McGroarty (and Chesley fwiw) could definitely shake-up the top end of the draft this year. Maybe the Wright/Lambert 1-2 is set in stone, but I could definitely see a GM betting on McGroarty over Savoie, especially if he shows skating improvements next year.

I want to see Rutger play center next season. If he can play it well, I think it’ll help his draft stock. The NTDP always has this problem where some natural centers play on the wings because they pick a lot more centers than wingers, but rarely is probably the best forward of the group the one that they are putting on the wing.

 

[wings5]

Not nearly as much talk as the other players projected to be top 5 picks, will be interesting to see how he does next season. Reminds me of Cole Sillinger in this years draft, is he a center is he a wing, can he improve his skating? Still has questions to answer

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Not nearly as much talk as the other players projected to be top 5 picks, will be interesting to see how he does next season. Reminds me of Cole Sillinger in this years draft, is he a center is he a wing, can he improve his skating? Still has questions to answer

He’s a lot more offensively talented than Sillinger.

 

[wings5]

He’s a lot more offensively talented than Sillinger.

I meant in terms of their strengths, question marks and expected draft position

 

[Groo]

Would look good in Teal

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I feel like this guy is getting very underrated on early lists.

Having watched all the 2004 NTDP forwards many times last season, I don't really agree with players like Cooley, Nazar, Howard, Fleming ahead of him. I don't see why people put so much emphasis on his skating. It's not even that bad. It's not worse than Matt Boldy skated in his draft year. His offensive tools are also the best of all those guys, and he has really good size and hockey sense. I also like his defensive game, and I think he may be a more likely center than someone like Cooley.

And his uneventful WJC18 is pretty easily explainable by context. That whole team was a disaster, and he was playing on a lower line with linemates who weren't draftable prospects, if I am remembering correctly what the lines were. I don't believe he played PP either. Most kids his age weren't at that tournament either. He earned his spot on that team by being great the whole season, so any criticism of his play at that tournament has to come with the caveat that he was a U17 last season playing against almost entirely U18's at that tournament.

 

[AMScouting]

Significant plays from three games of McGroarty (DY-1):

 

[majormajor]

He’s a lot more offensively talented than Sillinger.

I'm going to need some kind of explanation then of how Sillinger was able to just score 2.5 times as much as McGroarty in the USHL. Even with almost a year age difference that seems like quite the gap.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

I'm going to need some kind of explanation then of how Sillinger was able to just score 2.5 times as much as McGroarty in the USHL. Even with almost a year age difference that seems like quite the gap.

Beyond age, which isn’t insignificant, I think McGroarty has much better offensive tools. I don’t see any problem with the rate McGroarty scored at last season. Sillinger is not as good, in my opinion, as the rate he scores at. I’ve never been impressed. I don’t doubt his ability to score in all these junior hockey leagues and international tournaments. I think though once he reaches the NHL that his tools won’t translate that well for mediocre skating.

 

[goavsblue8]

 

[Dominance]

Whoever masterminded this insanity at Michigan needs to get an enormous raise.

 

[bigdog16]

Whoever masterminded this insanity at Michigan needs to get an enormous raise.

NCAA hockey is a weird sport in that you can have the best prospects and tout yourself as moving the most players to the NHL, but at the end of the day its about championships. And 18 year old freshmen rarely get you them. Michigan hasnt won a natty in 20+ years.

 

[Dominance]

NCAA hockey is a weird sport in that you can have the best prospects and tout yourself as moving the most players to the NHL, but at the end of the day its about championships. And 18 year old freshmen rarely get you them. Michigan hasnt won a natty in 20+ years.

True. But they’ve made themselves must-watch hockey for the next 3 years.

 

[goavsblue8]

NCAA hockey is a weird sport in that you can have the best prospects and tout yourself as moving the most players to the NHL, but at the end of the day its about championships. And 18 year old freshmen rarely get you them. Michigan hasnt won a natty in 20+ years.

One game elimination hockey is also not very advantageous for the most talented team to win either. No one has stacked classes like Michigan currently is and is continuing to do either. It will be interesting to see it play out.

 

[16thOverallSaveUs]

I prefer Cooley.

 

[Bonin21]

Michigan is the heavy favorite to win the title. They could probably skip half the year and still be heavy favorite when the tournament starts. But with 16 teams single elimination, no one team really ever has more than a 20% chance of winning and 1 in 5 isn't that high when you think about it.

 

[FireBird71]