F Alexis Lafreniere - Rimouski Oceanic, QMJHL (2020 Draft) Part 2

[Divine]

Above a hall/hischier/hughes someone who is considered can't miss like stamkos/mack/tavares/matthews

I honestly believe Lafreniere will be a similar player to Taylor Hall from what I've seen. He plays wing too, so it's hard to compare him to centres because he doesn't really play like one. He makes plays like Marner and Kane, but it doesn't look like he has the same vision as those 2. Time will tell, but it's rare that a winger has the same impact.

 

[ponder]

Another thing to consider is that Lafreniere is pretty much alone on his team compared to McDavid who had Debrincat and Strome who are both great NHL forwards. Drouin was a pair with MacKinnon who is a Hart level forward when he did it. Mitch Marner was playing with 19 year old Domi and good NHLer Dvorak in his great draft season.

Lafreniere plays with a couple of late round picks who never put a point per game in the Q before this season.

I wouldn't take Lafreniere ahead of Eichel or Matthews in a draft, but other than them and McDavid, there is no one as good as Lafreniere in the last years.

Same, from the 2010 draft to present, I have only McDavid, Matthews and Eichel ahead of him as prospects. Laine, MacKinnon, Dahlin, Hall and Seguin were all real close, but I’d put Laf slightly ahead of all of them.

This is all based on how promising they looked pre-draft, obviously some guys (like MacKinnon) exceeded expectations. As a prospect, though, Laf’s really, really good, a strong #1 pick.

 

[Orange Fanta]

I honestly believe Lafreniere will be a similar player to Taylor Hall from what I've seen. He plays wing too, so it's hard to compare him to centres because he doesn't really play like one. He makes plays like Marner and Kane, but it doesn't look like he has the same vision as those 2. Time will tell, but it's rare that a winger has the same impact.

I just think he has better iq and vision than hall, but I think he is better than marner in terms of overall iq but vision wise marner not by a lot but noticeable and kane... yeah dude has eyes in the back of his head.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

I'd put him in the Eichel tier, and I think he'll be a dominant offense player for years to come. His skill and IQ is above the charts.

 

[93LEAFS]

This is semantics then. To me, to dominate it has to be something extraordinary. Like when I think of dominant junior players I think of Lemieux, Kane, Crosby, Tavares (goals), McDavid. They were consensus, undisputable top picks before their draft year started. I don't see Lafreniere as that same level.

Kane wasn't. Angelo Esposito was viewed as the clear #1 in the draft. Not sure most services even had him 10, and at the end of the year CSB still had Turris ahead.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

So the Sens are going to have 2 WJC MVPs on their team ... awesome

 

[Lebowski]

I'd put him in the Eichel tier, and I think he'll be a dominant offense player for years to come. His skill and IQ is above the charts.

Eichel has been my comparable player for a little while as well. They have a similar style.

 

[Barry Amsterdam]

I am a Leaf fan...Yay generalizations!

No you’re not

 

[93LEAFS]

Eichel has been my comparable player for a little while as well. They have a similar style.

Eichel is way stronger and explosive on the puck. I don't really see that level of transition game. Laf's game style-wise is much closer to someone like Huberdeau. Probably add some physicality though.

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

I honestly believe Lafreniere will be a similar player to Taylor Hall from what I've seen. He plays wing too, so it's hard to compare him to centres because he doesn't really play like one. He makes plays like Marner and Kane, but it doesn't look like he has the same vision as those 2. Time will tell, but it's rare that a winger has the same impact.

I really don't see the Hall comparison. Hall was a more typical Canadian winger prospect: very fast, very explosive skater, great shot, fine playmaker but more oriented toward scoring. Lafrenière is a good but not great skater, has a good shot that he doesn't use enough and has exceptional vision and decision-making. Hall sped things up and Lafrenière slows them down. Only things they have in common is their position and their size.

 

[93LEAFS]

I really don't see the Hall comparison. Hall was a more typical Canadian winger prospect: very fast, very explosive skater, great shot, fine playmaker but more oriented toward scoring. Lafrenière is a good but not great skater, has a good shot that he doesn't use enough and has exceptional vision and decision-making. Hall sped things up and Lafrenière slows them down. Only things they have in common is their position and their size.

Hall is much more pure athleticism allowing him to generate chances at will. I don't see them as similar, other than the level of player you are potentially getting.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

Where do you think he goes in the past five drafts?
2015: 3
2016: 2
2017: 1
2018: 2 maybe 1
2019: 1

He'd go after Laine. Definitely wouldn't go before Dahlin. Lafreniere/Svechnikov is a toss-up. I think I'd go with Svechnikov, but its very close.

 

[Orange Fanta]

He'd go after Laine. Definitely wouldn't go before Dahlin. Lafreniere/Svechnikov is a toss-up. I think I'd go with Svechnikov, but its very close.

He's just an odd player to gauge he'll be good i just don't know how high his ceiling is

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

Marner had 126 points in 63 games in his draft year too and went 4th overall. Let's see how much Lafreniere finishes with.

Dylan Strome had 111 points in 56 games in his draft year and went 3rd overall.

Jonathon Drouin had 105 points in 49 games and went 3rd overall.

For reference, McDavid had 120 points in 47 games. Crosby had 168 points in 62 games. Patrick Kane had 145 points in 58 games.

Dominating in junior holds a different numeric standard than the NHL. People don't put down 2PPG in the NHL, but consistently do it in junior. Also, sample size. Lafreniere would have to finish with 2.5X PPG over the rest of the year to have dominated junior.

It also depends on what you mean by dominate I guess. I don't consider something that happens every year by multiple players to be dominant.

Marner, Drouin and Strome all played with star linemates that were great junior players and wound up having great NHL success. Marner and Drouin in particular played on teams that completely destroyed their respective leagues and won the Memorial Cup. Lafrenière has no star linemate, even by junior standards, and his team is nowhere near that caliber (I'd be surprised if they even made the league finals at this point). You can't just look at numbers and set an arbitrary standard for what "domination" means. Context matters. Lafrenière has missed 7 games for the WJC, and yet the only player within 15 pts of him for the scoring lead is his own center. If that's not domination, I don't know what domination is.

 

[Nabrules]

He'd go after Laine. Definitely wouldn't go before Dahlin. Lafreniere/Svechnikov is a toss-up. I think I'd go with Svechnikov, but its very close.

completely agree with this. In the 2015 draft he would go anywhere from 3-6, in the 2016 draft, people are forgetting how great laine was and the hype he generated, rightfully so, Lafreniere would again go 3 in that draft most likely. In 2017 he would go one, and 2018 most likely 2 with an outside chance of 3. As for 2019, I clearly remember bob McKenzie saying he would be behind Hughes at number 2, near Kakko. I personally have Byfield number 1 for 2020 because I think in 3-5 years he’ll be the best player. Nothing against Lafreniere though, he’s been great this year, better than I expected. Should be a 80 point winger in the NHL!

 

[Nabrules]

Marner, Drouin and Strome all played with star linemates that were great junior players and wound up having great NHL success. Marner and Drouin in particular played on teams that completely destroyed their respective leagues and won the Memorial Cup. Lafrenière has no star linemate, even by junior standards, and his team is nowhere near that caliber (I'd be surprised if they even made the league finals at this point). You can't just look at numbers and set an arbitrary standard for what "domination" means. Context matters. Lafrenière has missed 7 games for the WJC, and yet the only player within 15 pts of him for the scoring lead is his own center. If that's not domination, I don't know what domination is.

I agree with this that Lafreniere didn’t have the level of teammates compared to those guys, but a factor that should be considered is Lafreniere is doing this an 18 year old and in his 3rd CHL season, whereas those guys did it in their 2nd.

 

[Pavel Buchnevich]

completely agree with this. In the 2015 draft he would go anywhere from 3-6, in the 2016 draft, people are forgetting how great laine was and the hype he generated, rightfully so, Lafreniere would again go 3 in that draft most likely. In 2017 he would go one, and 2018 most likely 2 with an outside chance of 3. As for 2019, I clearly remember bob McKenzie saying he would be behind Hughes at number 2, near Kakko. I personally have Byfield number 1 for 2020 because I think in 3-5 years he’ll be the best player. Nothing against Lafreniere though, he’s been great this year, better than I expected. Should be a 80 point winger in the NHL!

I think Lafreniere is very good, but there is a lot of recency bias. There was a poll a few days ago where he had over 95% of the vote over Hughes. I prefer Lafreniere to Hughes, but 95% is ridiculous. It's recency bias. Positional value also matters, as does not being an great skater. Aside from Matthews and Laine, all these players talked about in these discussions are at least very good skaters, and I guess when you shoot the puck like Matthews and Laine, it doesn't matter if you are a great skater or not.

 

[newfy]

Do you consider something that happens every year to be dominant? If so, then he is. To me, dominant means it doesn't happen often.

Back to back CHL player of the year (hell win this year) and a WJC MVP mixed in while having numbers seen only by a small handful of guys the last 20 years?

Think that qualifies as something that doesnt happen often?

 

[SympathyForTheDevils]

I agree with this that Lafreniere didn’t have the level of teammates compared to those guys, but a factor that should be considered is Lafreniere is doing this an 18 year old and in his 3rd CHL season, whereas those guys did it in their 2nd.

Sure, but then again, all 3 of these guys did come back for another year (or two) of juniors, and they all failed to meaningfully improve from their draft year numbers. Despite being 5-7 months older than Lafrenière's current age, if we're still counting.

 

[ijuka]

Back to back CHL player of the year (hell win this year) and a WJC MVP mixed in while having numbers seen only by a small handful of guys the last 20 years?

Think that qualifies as something that doesnt happen often?

well, his CHL PPG isn't even the best of his draft class.

 

[Jabba11]

Lafreniere over Svechnikov and Laine.

In terms of prospects and leading up to their draft, Laffy is a more superior prospect.

I agree with Dahlin over Laffy but he’s ahead of Hughes easily. Not because of recency, but Laffy is projected to be a more complete player but also he’s a gamer. Period. Hounds the puck, hits everybody, skilled AF and hockey sense is through the roof.

As a French Canadian, I admit to be biaised for this next statement, but I’d take Laffy over Matthews, Eichel, Hughes, Kakko, Svech. Easy.

This kid represent more than just a hockey player for Quebecers, he is the descendant of the Lafleur, Beliveau, Rocket, etc. We’ve been waiting for a true French impact player and Lafreniere is the reminder that Quebec players are still there and insanely talented but most of all, they show up to play and to win.

 

[93LEAFS]

Marner, Drouin and Strome all played with star linemates that were great junior players and wound up having great NHL success. Marner and Drouin in particular played on teams that completely destroyed their respective leagues and won the Memorial Cup. Lafrenière has no star linemate, even by junior standards, and his team is nowhere near that caliber (I'd be surprised if they even made the league finals at this point). You can't just look at numbers and set an arbitrary standard for what "domination" means. Context matters. Lafrenière has missed 7 games for the WJC, and yet the only player within 15 pts of him for the scoring lead is his own center. If that's not domination, I don't know what domination is.

Marner played with Rupert and Dvorak in his draft year primarily, and then put two points per game in the playoffs centering Josh Sterk. I think your thinking of his post draft season with Tkachuk and Dvorak.

 

[93LEAFS]

Lafreniere over Svechnikov and Laine.

In terms of prospects and leading up to their draft, Laffy is a more superior prospect.

I agree with Dahlin over Laffy but he’s ahead of Hughes easily. Not because of recency, but Laffy is projected to be a more complete player but also he’s a gamer. Period. Hounds the puck, hits everybody, skilled AF and hockey sense is through the roof.

As a French Canadian, I admit to be biaised for this next statement, but I’d take Laffy over Matthews, Eichel, Hughes, Kakko, Svech. Easy.

This kid represent more than just a hockey player for Quebecers, he is the descendant of the Lafleur, Beliveau, Rocket, etc. We’ve been waiting for a true French impact player and Lafreniere is the reminder that Quebec players are still there and insanely talented but most of all, they show up to play and to win.

I know its outdated, but Bob McKenzie said last year he got the feeling Hughes would go ahead of Lafreniere.

 

[Nabrules]

Sure, but then again, all 3 of these guys did come back for another year (or two) of juniors, and they all failed to meaningfully improve from their draft year numbers. Despite being 5-7 months older than Lafrenière's current age, if we're still counting.

That can play both ways tho, those types of elite players usually don’t go as hard as they did in their draft year because they have less to prove. Someone like Bryam could be going through that this season too.

 

[Tutu to]

If this ye

I know its outdated, but Bob McKenzie said last year he got the feeling Hughes would go ahead of Lafreniere.

if this years Lafrenierre was in last years draft he likely goes first.