GDT: Expansion Draft - Part III [Protected lists Released]

[SM]

Legitimate question--

what in the world is Vegas planning to pull off with the ~8 speculated 1st round draft picks they will have acquired due to protection deals? If it's true that they are looking to be more competitive than not this year could we see them flipping 2 first round picks for each mid-to-later aged quality players? I.e.: Gaining 4 quality roster players right off the bat??

 

[MrBoJangelz71]

Maybe Chevy should get on that? People have only been saying that for 5 years now.

They grow on trees?

 

[JetsFan815]

See if you can find the 5 forwards that the Jets wanted to protect in the expansion draft.

Then try to find the forwards that they exposed.

Some on this board seem to abandon statistical analyses whenever it suits their narrative, and especially if it supports anything that Chevy does.

Why are you are using a cumulative stat to make a point about a player who played significantly less games and minutes than the players he is being compared to? If anything, this graph shows how good Dano was to have nearly the same or better GAR as Armia and Copp who played 20-25 games more than him. Besides what does this have to do with the Jets giving up value in addition to the player at XD?

 

[nobody important]

I don't think dropping down a couple of spots in the first round this year (from #13 to #15) is that much of a big deal.

From an historical analysis of pick values, dropping from #13 to #15 is generally worth a late round pick (5th round or later pick).

It could be the difference between getting the next Patrik Laine and the next Patrik Stefan.

 

[Tom ServoMST3K]

Legitimate question--

what in the world is Vegas planning to pull off with the ~8 speculated 1st round draft picks they will have acquired due to protection deals? If it's true that they are looking to be more competitive than not this year could we see them flipping 2 first round picks for each mid-to-later aged quality players? I.e.: Gaining 4 quality roster players right off the bat??

They have 0.

Count em, ZERO prospects in the cupboard right now.

 

[portamoral]

Nothing wrong with Foote. I just hope they aren't dropping cause they're gonna take Hague and they know he's still gonna be there.

yeah watch them move down to 15 cause hague was "their guy" all along and then when pick 13 rolls around and all the D are off the board, chevy starts to get nervous and trades our 2018 1st to vegas to get #13 back and takes hague when he would've been there at the bottom of the 1st.

 

[Jetabre]

Enstrom probably wouldn't have waived if Jets weren't going to pull something to guarantee his safety. If it's just dropping 2 spots then that's a pretty good outcome.

 

[SM]

They have 0.

Count em, ZERO prospects in the cupboard right now.

Well, not really. From the sounds of it they're acquiring quite the little arsenal of almost ready prospects as well, right?

 

[puck stoppa]

Enstrom probably wouldn't have waived if Jets weren't going to pull something to guarantee his safety. If it's just dropping 2 spots then that's a pretty good outcome.

Good point. Could've been perreault instead. How many teams would want him, Vegas woulda flipped him for a good return no doubt.

 

[mcpw]

Well, not really. From the sounds of it they're acquiring quite the little arsenal of almost ready prospects as well, right?

Literally quite a little. Alex Tuch, Shea Theodore, and a mystery guy from Columbus, from what is known right now.

 

[AWSAA]

Good point. Could've been perreault instead. How many teams would want him, Vegas woulda flipped him for a good return no doubt.

If it came to exposing Perreault the Jets would've traded him before the XD. Then again it's Chevy.

 

[puck stoppa]

Literally quite a little. Alex Tuch and a mystery guy from Columbus.

What about griffin Reinhardt some teams got off easy

 

[robertocarlos]

Sorr,y I got Lindberg and Lundqvist mixed up. I thought the Jets were making a deal for a goalie.

 

[YWG]

I just used the listings from future considerations (mid season). We should still get someone decent at 15:

1. Patrick
2. Hischier
3. Vilardi
4. Mittelstadt
5. Makar
6. Tippet
7. Liljegren
8. Tolvanen
9. Peterson
10. Necas
11. Heiskanen
12. Valimaki
13. Anderson
14. Kostin
15. Yamamoto
16. Glass
17. Hague
18. Rasmussen
19. Suzuki
20. Poehling
22. Branstrom

Make your top 15 out of that list. I still think we will get a player we like.

 

[JJ McCubbin]

Legitimate question--

what in the world is Vegas planning to pull off with the ~8 speculated 1st round draft picks they will have acquired due to protection deals? If it's true that they are looking to be more competitive than not this year could we see them flipping 2 first round picks for each mid-to-later aged quality players? I.e.: Gaining 4 quality roster players right off the bat??

I suppose the fact that there isn't an obvious answer to your question shows the appeal for them. They could draft a bunch of promising kids and immediately have a good prospect pool. Or they could do as you suggest and pick up some players that are a bit further along in their development. It also gives them a lot of flexibility for the draft. They could likely trade some picks away to other teams that are desperate for a certain prospect or trade up / trade down to accrue more picks or consolidate picks into higher ones. We might even see them trading some picks to stock up in 2018 or trade picks for one year rentals from weaker teams with a view to flipping them (with retention if needed) to contenders at the deadline.

Realistically, I suppose we'll see a mix of a lot of the above. Should make for an interesting few days anyway.

 

[buggs]

Man this thread is going to be funny looking at after the actual announcement.

 

[JetsFan815]

What are you even talking about?

It's very likely that one of Valimaki, Suzuki or Andersson will be available at #15, unless a higher pick falls.

From MyNHLdraft - consensus rankings:

#13 Valimaki
#14 Liljegren
#18 Andersson

Based on all previous analyses of draft pick value, moving back from #13 to #15 is worth about the same as a 6th or 7th round pick.

Do the rankings you posted refute my point? They have most of the 2nd tier being taken ahead of #15, and all it takes is for guys like Rasmussen and Tippet to drop for us to miss out on all of the 2nd tier

The trade value of dropping from 13 to 15th is not the same as a 6th or a 7th. Indeed looking at historical trade ups, a team looking to jump from 15th to 13th is expected to give up value somewhere between a 60-70th overall pick https://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up so an early 3rd.

 

[puck stoppa]

Man this thread is going to be funny looking at after the actual announcement.

Stop being rationale

 

[KingBogo]

But they never had to do this in the first place. 4-4-1 protected Enstrom, exposed four forwards & it's highly possible Dano was their target all along. It's possible the extra pick, whatever it is, was never necessary.

Regardless, all this is just speculation. Hopefully in the end Chevy surprises us all.

You don't think McPhee would have picked MP over Dano if available?

 

[Jetsfan79]

Personally, dropping from 15 to 13 is a smaller loss than giving up a second or even a 3rd. You are not losing a draft pick selection and the jets have shown to be draft savvy enough that I'm confident they can get a good player at 15.

 

[AWSAA]

^ There will always been an excuse for Chevy with some. I'd hate to see what it will take for them to turn on him.

 

[Arthur Fonzarelli]

Rheinhart? But he was a pilon that would never be selected...

That said i've been wrong about mostly everything else.

 

[Aavco Cup]

They have 0.

Count em, ZERO prospects in the cupboard right now.

Reid Duke Alex Tuch

 

[KingBogo]

Wow at people getting all bent out of shape over speculations and assumptions.

This amazes me at times as well. If I don't know something I will fill in the blanks with my worst fears and then b**** and complain about it like it actually happened. When it doesn't pick new target and repeat.

 

[JJ McCubbin]

Realistically, we'll probably never know how much of a difference picking at 15 vs 13 (if that's what happens) will make. Worst-case scenario, Chevy's number 1 guy is there at 13 but Chevy can't get a trade done and the Jets get their 15th ranked guy at 15. Best-case, we get the same guy at 15 that we would have had at 13 and all we end up losing is the extra ten minutes where we were all fretting that Chevy was going to make the worst pick ever and destroy the team. I'm happy with assuming the best-case scenario. I urge you all to do the same.