Expansion draft discussion

[Hasbro]

We'll probably just pay Seattle a draft pick1 not to pick whoever we don't end up protecting. Maybe they'll even take a problematic contract for us if we sweeten the pot a little too.

That’s going to be expensive since there are more motivated sellers like Tampa that will need cap relief.

 

[Hasbro]

Why did Stone get bought out and re-signed in the same off season?

The Caps/Orpik situation was about a different team absorbing the cap hit then freeing up Orpik to re-sign.

Did not know that, which shocks me that loophole isn’t used more often.

 

[MaKarter]

The only way I see Sakic asking EJ to waive is if Sakic knows EJ isn't desired by Seattle. Sakic will figure out what Seattle wants and work from there.

If Seattle wants someone that Sakic values highly he will figure out a deal and give up a player he is comfortable with. That may be a Burakovsky or Kadri, but more likely a Graves or Nichushkin.

 

[MarkT]

I feel like this topic will go endlessly in circles until we get more certainty about the draft (and this upcoming season).

To sum up, the two key players here are EJ and Landeskog

EJ: The clear goal is to get him to waive his modified NTC so that we can go 7x3, likely leaving some or all of Graves, Donskoi and Compher exposed.

The questions this brings up:

• Is he willing to waive?
• When should the Avs talk to him about waiving? Should this have already happened before the Toews trade?
• If he isn't willing to waive, what should be done?
  • Should they just go 4x4 and potentially lose Kadri or Burakovsky?
    • In this scenario who should be protected between the two?
  • Should the Avs make a side deal with Seattle to ensure EJ that he won't be taken?
  • Should they buy him out, creating potential cap trouble in the future?
  • Should they attempt to trade him?
    • Are there likely to be any trade partners?
    • Will Avs need to retain or sweeten the deal?

Landeskog: The potential plan would be, in the event of EJ needing to be protected, the Avs could let Landy go to UFA and then go 4x4 by protecting MacKinnon, Rantanen, Burakovsky, Kadri, Makar, Girard, Toews, and EJ.

The questions this scenario brings up:

• Can the Avs get away with leaving him unsigned, then immediately re-signing him after the draft?
• What are the risks of Landy signing with another team in this scenario?
• Is Landy signing with another team even a terrible thing?

I think that sums it all up. Now the issue is, none of these questions have answers and aren't likely to until much closer to the expansion draft (if ever). We can keep talking about it of course, but I suspect things will just keep going around and around in circles over the above questions. I can think of worse ways to spend the offseason though

 

[Hasbro]

One thing to keep in mind is there could be a big difference between how EJ is perceived by HFAvs and how the rest of the league sees him.

Brian Burke for example said numerous times during the last playoffs that the Avs lost to Dallas because EJ got injured and he was the backbone of our defense.

The game passed that blowhard by a decade ago.

 

[tigervixxxen]

The league can frown upon it all they want, if I was a GM there's no way in ****ing hell I would re-sign Landeskog before the expansion draft.

Seattle wouldn't touch him, he'd walk right back to Colorado immediately if Sakic told him "there's a deal in place, we're going to announce it right after expansion draft." Protect MacKinnon/Rantanen/Kadri/Burakovsky at that point if you go 4/4.

Frowned upon as in there will be consequences.

When trying to predict who Seattle might pick keep in mind they are building a very progressive analytically driven org. There’s no way in hell a guy like Compher is going to be the best value to them. If Graves, Jost and Nuke’s fancy stats keep up through the next year they are the more likely candidates.

 

[Balthazar]

There’s no way in hell a guy like Compher is going to be the best value to them. If Graves, Jost and Nuke’s fancy stats keep up through the next year they are the more likely candidates.

Nuke's going to be a year away from UFA.

So either Jost or Graves.

 

[Richard88]

Why did Stone get bought out and re-signed in the same off season?

The Caps/Orpik situation was about a different team absorbing the cap hit then freeing up Orpik to re-sign.

Let's say that Johnson gets bought out in 2021. That would give us $2m of dead capspace for 4 years, and EJ would get a guaranteed $8m of the $12m due to him (2/3 of $6m x 2).

We then turn around and re-sign Johnson at $2m x 4 years (for example), meaning that:

• Johnson walks away with $16m in 2025, which is equivalent to playing out his current $6m x 2 year contract and then signing a $2m x 2 year deal in 2023-2025.

• Avs effectively get Johnson signed for an extra 2 years at essentially a $4m aav ($2m from the buyout, and $2m from his new caphit). This would lower the 2021-2023 caphit from $6m to $4m.

This looks like cap circumvention to me, but if this is allowed then it's obviously something that should be considered.

 

[Richard88]

I think talks are already on between Sakic and Landeskog so numbers are discussed and known. Avs would be allowing Seattle to make an offer, but I doubt Landeskog will sign unless that offer is sooooo far above the Avs that he can't say no.

Avs could be discussing but not offering 7 mill and allow Seattle to offer 8; I doubt Landeskog jumps at the 7.5.

Also doesn't Seattle have to take Landeskog to negotiate ahead of the pack? Would they risk getting nothing?

If Seattle select Landeskog as an UFA they would get a period of time where only they can negotiate with him, but if they can't come to terms with him and he signs elsewhere in UFA they would indeed completely waste their Avs selection. It probably isn't worth the risk for them considering the other players they'll have available to choose from, unless they'd offer him silly money.

 

[Richard88]

He's also the only unprotected player on the roster whose contract is expiring to RFA status (the contract will be expired I should say, but he's likely to sign a cap friendly contract).

The fact that Jost is an RFA rather than signed with some term actually lowers the appeal for Seattle to pick him.

20 of the 30 players they select need to be under contract in 2021/22, meaning that they can only select 10 RFA's total, and chances are that Seattle will have at least 10 better RFA's to choose from than Jost next year, so they may not want to burn one of their 10 RFA selections on him.

 

[Murzu]

Let's say that Johnson gets bought out in 2021. That would give us $2m of dead capspace for 4 years, and EJ would get a guaranteed $8m of the $12m due to him (2/3 of $6m x 2).

We then turn around and re-sign Johnson at $2m x 4 years (for example), meaning that:

• Johnson walks away with $16m in 2025, which is equivalent to playing out his current $6m x 2 year contract and then signing a $2m x 2 year deal in 2023-2025.

• Avs effectively get Johnson signed for an extra 2 years at essentially a $4m aav ($2m from the buyout, and $2m from his new caphit). This would lower the 2021-2023 caphit from $6m to $4m.

This looks like cap circumvention to me, but if this is allowed then it's obviously something that should be considered.

League can't be okay with this, looks so fishy. But if it's allowed it would be great plan. Buy him out and hive him 2-2.5M x 4 years deal, if he'd be willing to sign such low value deal. Chances are he goes to some other place for more bucks.

 

[Iceberg]

Let's say that Johnson gets bought out in 2021. That would give us $2m of dead capspace for 4 years, and EJ would get a guaranteed $8m of the $12m due to him (2/3 of $6m x 2).

We then turn around and re-sign Johnson at $2m x 4 years (for example), meaning that:

• Johnson walks away with $16m in 2025, which is equivalent to playing out his current $6m x 2 year contract and then signing a $2m x 2 year deal in 2023-2025.

• Avs effectively get Johnson signed for an extra 2 years at essentially a $4m aav ($2m from the buyout, and $2m from his new caphit). This would lower the 2021-2023 caphit from $6m to $4m.

This looks like cap circumvention to me, but if this is allowed then it's obviously something that should be considered.

What? 4 more years? No thanks.

 

[henchman21]

Let's say that Johnson gets bought out in 2021. That would give us $2m of dead capspace for 4 years, and EJ would get a guaranteed $8m of the $12m due to him (2/3 of $6m x 2).

We then turn around and re-sign Johnson at $2m x 4 years (for example), meaning that:

• Johnson walks away with $16m in 2025, which is equivalent to playing out his current $6m x 2 year contract and then signing a $2m x 2 year deal in 2023-2025.

• Avs effectively get Johnson signed for an extra 2 years at essentially a $4m aav ($2m from the buyout, and $2m from his new caphit). This would lower the 2021-2023 caphit from $6m to $4m.

This looks like cap circumvention to me, but if this is allowed then it's obviously something that should be considered.

I wouldn't sign EJ for 4 more years, but this is allowed under the CBA.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

If Seattle select Landeskog as an UFA they would get a period of time where only they can negotiate with him, but if they can't come to terms with him and he signs elsewhere in UFA they would indeed completely waste their Avs selection. It probably isn't worth the risk for them considering the other players they'll have available to choose from, unless they'd offer him silly money.

Does anyone know if Seattle gain the right to offer that extra 8th year (not that we should give that to Landy).

 

[Pokecheque]

I wouldn't sign EJ for 4 more years, but this is allowed under the CBA.

Re-signing a player you just bought out? I didn't think it was.

 

[milehigh11]

What is everyone talking about????. You can not resign a player after you bought them out. They have to wait ONE YEAR before they could resign them.


After using a compliance buyout on a player, that player is prohibited from rejoining the team that bought him out for one year; the NHL deemed that the re-signing of a player following a trade and a subsequent compliance buyout would be ruled as cap circumvention.[2]

 

[dahrougem2]

Frowned upon as in there will be consequences.

There wouldn't be any consequences. Nothing about delaying a contract is illegal, nor is there anything illegal about Landeskog, a UFA, signing back with the Avalanche even though Seattle has "selected" him.

It'd be stupid on their part to select him, and smart on Sakic's part not to protect him. I would do the exact same thing if I was running the Oilers with Nugent-Hopkins.

 

[henchman21]

Re-signing a player you just bought out? I didn't think it was.

Michael Stone - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

What is everyone talking about????. You can not resign a player after you bought them out. They have to wait ONE YEAR before they could resign them.


After using a compliance buyout on a player, that player is prohibited from rejoining the team that bought him out for one year; the NHL deemed that the re-signing of a player following a trade and a subsequent compliance buyout would be ruled as cap circumvention.[2]

That was on compliance buyouts... the ones that didn't count against the cap. The second one is trading a player to a different team, having them buyout that player, and then signing that player. That wasn't expressly outlawed by the NHL, but the Orpik situation rubbed people the wrong way and it wouldn't be allowed again.

Buying out your own player and then signing him was just done in 2019... it is legal and wasn't frowned upon by the NHL. IMO that is because the buyout hits the team re-signing him regardless.

 

[Hasbro]

There wouldn't be any consequences. Nothing about delaying a contract is illegal, nor is there anything illegal about Landeskog, a UFA, signing back with the Avalanche even though Seattle has "selected" him.

It'd be stupid on their part to select him, and smart on Sakic's part not to protect him. I would do the exact same thing if I was running the Oilers with Nugent-Hopkins.

Of course if you get him to agree to a good deal, you might want to just lock it down.

 

[Richard88]

Does anyone know if Seattle gain the right to offer that extra 8th year (not that we should give that to Landy).

If Seattle select him and have exclusive negotiating rights with him prior to UFA it would be logical that they'd be the only team that can offer 8 years prior to UFA. If selected they would effectively own his rights just like with any other pending UFA.

 

[CaleMakaw]

I don't see what's stopping sakic from trading a young player, ie Graves to Seattle in exchange for Seattle selecting Donskoi. 2 analytical dreamboats. Clears out 7M.
Otherwise I can see him trading Graves to the highest bidder next off-season. Forcing Seattle's hand.
I think 2/3 of Donskoi Compher Graves are not on the team this time next year. Otherwise it gets real tight.

 

[Hasbro]

I don't see what's stopping sakic from trading a young player, ie Graves to Seattle in exchange for Seattle selecting Donskoi.

If Seattle does want to.

It’s not a bad plan, but Seattle’s cap space will be in high trade demand.

 

[JH21]

In an ideal world we protect 8 skaters

-Johnson waives but Seattle won't take him
-We leave Landeskog exposed but he has agreed to a verbal contract once free agency starts

Mack
Rantanen
Kadri
Burakovski
Makar
Girard
Toews
Graves

Exposed: Compher, Donskoi, Jost, Francouz

 

[Balthazar]

I don't see what's stopping sakic from trading a young player, ie Graves to Seattle in exchange for Seattle selecting Donskoi.

Ron Francis.

 

[jfc64]

I feel like this topic will go endlessly in circles until we get more certainty about the draft (and this upcoming season).

To sum up, the two key players here are EJ and Landeskog

EJ: The clear goal is to get him to waive his modified NTC so that we can go 7x3, likely leaving some or all of Graves, Donskoi and Compher exposed.

The questions this brings up:

• Is he willing to waive?
• When should the Avs talk to him about waiving? Should this have already happened before the Toews trade?
• If he isn't willing to waive, what should be done?
  • Should they just go 4x4 and potentially lose Kadri or Burakovsky?
    • In this scenario who should be protected between the two?
  • Should the Avs make a side deal with Seattle to ensure EJ that he won't be taken?
  • Should they buy him out, creating potential cap trouble in the future?
  • Should they attempt to trade him?
    • Are there likely to be any trade partners?
    • Will Avs need to retain or sweeten the deal?

Landeskog: The potential plan would be, in the event of EJ needing to be protected, the Avs could let Landy go to UFA and then go 4x4 by protecting MacKinnon, Rantanen, Burakovsky, Kadri, Makar, Girard, Toews, and EJ.

The questions this scenario brings up:

• Can the Avs get away with leaving him unsigned, then immediately re-signing him after the draft?
• What are the risks of Landy signing with another team in this scenario?
• Is Landy signing with another team even a terrible thing?

I think that sums it all up. Now the issue is, none of these questions have answers and aren't likely to until much closer to the expansion draft (if ever). We can keep talking about it of course, but I suspect things will just keep going around and around in circles over the above questions. I can think of worse ways to spend the offseason though

We can do like Tampa Bay. Go all in on the Stanley Cup and worry about the rest later... Joke aside, losing Burakovsky is no big deal and Krakken would only utilize him for a year before UFA. Losing Kadri is worse. Jost might be the guy the Krakken want, though. Risk is also that Nischushkin is good by then. Again only for a year. But it's only one guy. Replaceable with a cheapo, a scenario that might have been inevitable anyway. Get the feeling Sakic have thought this through well. Personally I want us to hold on to Compher if possible.