Expansion draft discussion

[henchman21]

Something to also think about... buyouts are not subject to escrow. So when we are talking about 2/3s, he's really getting more than 2/3s compared to what he'd normally get. Talk is around 16% escrow in 21-22... so EJ's 6m is really more around ~5m in 21-22, and 5.4m in 21-22... so ~10.5,. If he's bought out he only gets $2m per season, but is guaranteed 8m in total. Over 2 seasons he has to make up ~2.5m. EJ should be able to find a 2 year 2.5m aav deal fairly easily and make it out ahead.

Good to knlw before you trade for Toews and it would suck for him playing under a shadow all year.

Which means there are 12 teams he can block a trade to and at the moment there are 11 teams with $6million in cap space and the Avalanche would have to pay to get another team to take him.Except it wouldn't be in Denver by rule AND a historically bad situationfor free agents.[/QUOTE]

Trading EJ is hard, and if there is no overlap between those lists of teams... he's not tradable and buyout material if he doesn't waive his NMC.

The Avs can buy him out and then sign him. There is no rule prohibiting that. Stone and Calgary did that dance last season.

 

[hockeyviking]

Why would Seattle pick EJ with 2 years of 6m left instead of graves or compher ?

 

[Cousin Eddie]

It’s also possible that Sakic fully expects Toews to go to Seattle. I’d obviously hate it, but it’s not crazy to think that Sakic brought in Toews for a massive boost to the D Corp for a year while also allowing them to keep the entire group together after expansion.

It would suck, but two 2nds for a full year of Toews and not getting to lose anyone from this past season for nothing is actually good value. I hope it’s not the case and we find a way to give them Donskoi/Graves instead, but it wouldn’t shock me and it wouldn’t be the end of the world.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

I think EJ waives and Landeskog is not protected (but still signs with us). I mean we're the team that bought out Orpik only to have him go back to Washington. Joe and co are not afraid of some backroom dealings that are unprovable.

 

[tigervixxxen]

I don’t think the idea is to let Toews go unless he just has a year where he’s not at all what they were expecting and that’s true for the others too where a year’s performance or injuries could change a little perspective.

On Landy, the league said last time they were frowning upon the wink wink handshake UFAs so not sure they could pull that one off.

I agree with all the EJ logic but I still don’t fully buy into that’s how THEY see it. Is it really THAT important to them to protect Burky, Nuke and Jost? It’s not like we are moving mountains to protect Rantanen or Makar here. If it’s an easy convo and he’s willing to waive then cool but I don’t see the Avs jumping through hoops for it.

 

[Cypher]

Option A 7F-3D (if EJ waives or is bought out)
F = Mack, Rantanen, Landeskog (assuming he re-signs), Burakovsky, Kadri, Nichushkin, Jost
D = Girard, Makar, Toews

Expose Donskoi, Compher, O'Connor, Graves, EJ (if not bought out)

Option B 4F-4F (if EJ doesn't waive and is not bought out)
F = Mack, Rantanen, Landeskog (assuming he re-signs), Kadri
D = Girard, Makar, Toews, EJ

Expose Burakovski, Donskoi, Compher, Nichuskin, Jost, O'Connor, Graves

And that's assuming Kaut and Timmins are exempt.

If I was a betting man, I would say Avs will lose 1 of Compher/Donskoi/Graves in the expansion draft.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

It’s also possible that Sakic fully expects Toews to go to Seattle. I’d obviously hate it, but it’s not crazy to think that Sakic brought in Toews for a massive boost to the D Corp for a year while also allowing them to keep the entire group together after expansion.

It would suck, but two 2nds for a full year of Toews and not getting to lose anyone from this past season for nothing is actually good value. I hope it’s not the case and we find a way to give them Donskoi/Graves instead, but it wouldn’t shock me and it wouldn’t be the end of the world.

I don’t think there’s any chance Toews ends up in Seattle. Maybe if Graves takes a huge step forward this year, but I don’t see it.

Ultimately, I think it’s Graves in Seattle, or Sakic attaches an asset to move Compher/Donskoi over there.

 

[Avs_19]

It's coming up soon but I still feel it's too early to worry about because of how much things can change in a year. EJ will probably be a big part of their decision making and that could go in so many different directions based on what happens next season. I could see them not even bothering him because he played like he did at the start of the playoffs and is still a big part of the team. I could also see him waive his NMC, get traded, get bought out, waive and then go on LTIR after another significant injury, etc.

One thing I do feel confident in saying is that Toews will not be exposed to Seattle.

 

[Foppa2118]

I think EJ waives and Landeskog is not protected (but still signs with us). I mean we're the team that bought out Orpik only to have him go back to Washington. Joe and co are not afraid of some backroom dealings that are unprovable.

That would be great if he's willing, but it might be asking a little much for Landy to do it.

If he's got a contract offer he likes on the table, he probably has to do what's best for himself and his family, and sign it so he has some security.

If he plays out the season and the playoffs, anything can happen to him physically, and that could have a big impact on how much money he can command. There's even some unlikely scenarios that hopefully won't happen that could pull the offer from the table entirely.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

That would be great if he's willing, but it might be asking a little much for Landy to do it.

If he's got a contract offer he likes on the table, he probably has to do what's best for himself and his family, and sign it so he has some security.

If he plays out the season and the playoffs, anything can happen to him physically, and that could have a big impact on how much money he can command. There's even some unlikely scenarios that hopefully won't happen that could pull the offer from the table entirely.

I think talks are already on between Sakic and Landeskog so numbers are discussed and known. Avs would be allowing Seattle to make an offer, but I doubt Landeskog will sign unless that offer is sooooo far above the Avs that he can't say no.

Avs could be discussing but not offering 7 mill and allow Seattle to offer 8; I doubt Landeskog jumps at the 7.5.

Also doesn't Seattle have to take Landeskog to negotiate ahead of the pack? Would they risk getting nothing?

 

[Foppa2118]

I think talks are already on between Sakic and Landeskog so numbers are discussed and known. Avs would be allowing Seattle to make an offer, but I doubt Landeskog will sign unless that offer is sooooo far above the Avs that he can't say no.

Avs could be discussing but not offering 7 mill and allow Seattle to offer 8; I doubt Landeskog jumps at the 7.5.

Also doesn't Seattle have to take Landeskog to negotiate ahead of the pack? Would they risk getting nothing?

I see. So you're not necessarily talking about a handshake kind of agreement that they can leave Landy unprotected and unsigned, and then sign him after expansion, but rather they just do it?

I suppose that's a possibility but I would imagine Joe wouldn't operate like that. He'd probably be pretty open with Landy. He's their captain and as Joe has said they have a great relationship.

So I think Landy would probably try to push to get a deal done asap, but you never know.

 

[McMetal]

I just cannot imagine how Seattle would take EJ for free without Sakic offering an incentive to do so. The risk for EJ to be selected is miniscule at most unless Sakic makes a deal to dump his cap, in which case EJ wouldn't be waiving if he knew Sakic was planning to do that.

 

[The Kingslayer]

Why would you want a broken EJ at 6 milli when you can have a top pairing younger dman who makes half that in Ryan Graves?

 

[LostInMosEisley]

If EJ won't waive and the Avs won't buy him out or trade him, it's safer to expose Kadri or Burakovsky than Toews. They'll both have one year to UFA, Toews will have three. Graves, Donskoi and Compher will have two. Nichushkin will also have one year. It would almost force them to go 4/4 if they had to protect EJ. They just can't expose Toews.

The other motivation to waive for EJ would be to do a solid for some teammates. A lot more of them wouldn't be exposed and have to worry about being forced to leave a team in the middle of a prime Cup window. Maybe he'll still take no chances with himself first. I think it wouldn't be a bad idea for Sakic to agree to trade a low pick to Seattle in exchange for not picking EJ, in order to assure him if he'll waive. Not the greatest asset management but something they do to make they're doing right by their players. I could see why Sakic might go this route instead of holding a buy out or trade over EJ, or at the very least start with that approach.

 

[dahrougem2]

The league can frown upon it all they want, if I was a GM there's no way in ****ing hell I would re-sign Landeskog before the expansion draft.

Seattle wouldn't touch him, he'd walk right back to Colorado immediately if Sakic told him "there's a deal in place, we're going to announce it right after expansion draft." Protect MacKinnon/Rantanen/Kadri/Burakovsky at that point if you go 4/4.

 

[Balthazar]

The Avs can buy him out and then sign him. There is no rule prohibiting that. Stone and Calgary did that dance last season.

A very likely scenario indeed. Avs will buy him out and then resign him on a cheap contract.

EJ will still make his money, we won't have to protect him, his AAV will be significantly lower and he'll stick around.

Only downside (and it's a huge one) is you carry some of his dead cap hit into Mack's next contract.

 

[Balthazar]

I just cannot imagine how Seattle would take EJ for free without Sakic offering an incentive to do so.

One thing to keep in mind is there could be a big difference between how EJ is perceived by HFAvs and how the rest of the league sees him.

Brian Burke for example said numerous times during the last playoffs that the Avs lost to Dallas because EJ got injured and he was the backbone of our defense.

If I was a betting man, I would say Avs will lose 1 of Compher/Donskoi/Graves in the expansion draft.

Compher and Donskoi aren't good "bang for the buck" players. Seattle will have better options in the 3.5M - 4M range.

IMO Jost is more likely to go. He's cheaper and there's a bigger upside.

 

[LostInMosEisley]

IMO Jost is more likely to go. He's cheaper and there's a bigger upside.

He's also the only unprotected player on the roster whose contract is expiring to RFA status (the contract will be expired I should say, but he's likely to sign a cap friendly contract).

 

[McMetal]

One thing to keep in mind is there could be a big difference between how EJ is perceived by HFAvs and how the rest of the league sees him.

Brian Burke for example said numerous times during the last playoffs that the Avs lost to Dallas because EJ got injured and he was the backbone of our defense.



Compher and Donskoi aren't good "bang for the buck" players. Seattle will have better options in the 3.5M - 4M range.

IMO Jost is more likely to go. He's cheaper and there's a bigger upside.

Maybe, but based on your "bang for your buck" hypothesis, is EJ at 6m MORE bang for the buck than Compher at almost half that? I realize EJ is more important to our D than many here would like to admit, but it's hard for me to believe that he is regarded around the league as a value contract.

 

[Balthazar]

Maybe, but based on your "bang for your buck" hypothesis, is EJ at 6m MORE bang for the buck than Compher at almost half that? I realize EJ is more important to our D than many here would like to admit, but it's hard for me to believe that he is regarded around the league as a value contract.

Not a value contract but it depends how they see him. Maybe they'd want to make him the captain.

I don't see EJ agreeing to any of this though. Like Hench said earlier he's been playing for shitty teams all his career, he wants to stay with the Avs.

The more I think about it, the more I believe that we'll buy him out and re-sign him.

 

[Hasbro]

The Avs can buy him out and then sign him. There is no rule prohibiting that. Stone and Calgary did that dance last season.

You’ve got to wait a year. That was why the league was livid that Brook Orpik went back to the Caps after the Avalanche bought him out.

Also keeps underpaid guys like MacKinnon from getting bought out and resigning for a larger contract with the same team.

 

[Hasbro]

Maybe. Why would EJ want to waive while being on a contending team and possibly have his life uprooted? I mean he most likely wouldn’t get picked, but still.

To avoid getting his life uprooted from a contending team and having a shortfall of money from being bought out.

 

[Balthazar]

You’ve got to wait a year. That was why the league was livid that Brook Orpik went back to the Caps after the Avalanche bought him out.

In Orpik's case the problem was that it was the Avs that got hit with the dead cap money.

 

[sethro109]

We'll probably just pay Seattle a draft pick1 not to pick whoever we don't end up protecting. Maybe they'll even take a problematic contract for us if we sweeten the pot a little too.

 

[henchman21]

You’ve got to wait a year. That was why the league was livid that Brook Orpik went back to the Caps after the Avalanche bought him out.

Also keeps underpaid guys like MacKinnon from getting bought out and resigning for a larger contract with the same team.

Why did Stone get bought out and re-signed in the same off season?

The Caps/Orpik situation was about a different team absorbing the cap hit then freeing up Orpik to re-sign.