HF Habs: Expansion Draft 2021

[Kudo Shinichi]

We're probably going to go with 4 forwards and 4 D since most of our good forwards won't require protection (kk, suzuki, poehling, caufield) or will be ufa (tatar, danault)

So
F: Domi, Drouin, Gallagher, Armia
D: Weber, Mete, Juulsen, Fleury
G: Price

Notable players exposed: Byron, Lehkonen, Chariot
So we really won't be losing much.

If we decide to re-sign Danault early or sign a top ufa like Hall, we can protect them instead of Armia.

Else we can just re-sign Tatar, Danault, Petry after the expansion draft.
Juulsen will require waivers next year, and there is no spot available at RD, so we will probably make a decision on him earlier.

My guess would be Seattle picks Lehkonen.

 

[ArtPeur]

We're probably going to go with 4 forwards and 4 D since most of our good forwards won't require protection (kk, suzuki, poehling, caufield) or will be ufa (tatar, danault)

So
F: Domi, Drouin, Gallagher, Armia
D: Weber, Mete, Juulsen, Fleury
G: Price

If we decide to re-sign Danault early or sign a top ufa like Hall, we can protect them instead of Armia.

Notable players exposed: Byron, Lehkonen, Chariot
So we really won't be losing much.

We can re-sign Tatar, Danault, Petry if we want after the expansion draft.
Juulsen will require waivers next year, and there is no spot available at RD, so we will probably make a decision on him earlier.

My guess would be Seattle picks Lehkonen.

Mind you, the expansion draft is not in June 2020 but in June 2021. So...

As far as I know, only 1st and 2nd year NHL players are exempt. So KK will need to be protected as he will be a 3rd year player. Pastrnak was protected by the Bruins and he was a 3rd year player

Why protect Juulsen?

 

[calder candidate]

One helped us win games, the other helped the development team that prioritizes development win games. That's the difference in those two cases.

We'll see at the time of the expansion draft whether having Fleury play 1 year earlier in the AHL was worth it. Same for KK regarding the NHL.

I don’t think CJ ever relied on KK to win games. Also the more the season progressed the less of a factor he was and I didn’t really see big progression to start the season vs end of last.
So even if it might not have hurt KK I think it safe to say that it didn’t yield the progress everyone would have liked to see but will definitely have a impact on is status. it is also pretty clear that Fleury got a lot more out of playing in the AHL than he would have gotten going back to the CHL... If anything it might help us Figure what we have and maybe prevent a mistake.

 

[26Mats]

I don’t think CJ ever relied on KK to win games. Also the more the season progressed the less of a factor he was and I didn’t really see big progression to start the season vs end of last.
So even if it might not have hurt KK I think it safe to say that it didn’t yield the progress everyone would have liked to see but will definitely have a impact on is status. it is also pretty clear that Fleury got a lot more out of playing in the AHL than he would have gotten going back to the CHL... If anything it might help us Figure what we have and maybe prevent a mistake.

A big part of our downfall last year happened when KK and Drouin hit walls. They were big reasons we were where we were 2/3 of the way through the season - well on track to make the playoffs.

 

[calder candidate]

A big part of our downfall last year happened when KK and Drouin hit walls. They were big reasons we were where we were 2/3 of the way through the season - well on track to make the playoffs.

Drouin production just disappear...
KK didn’t hit the wall he just wasn’t able to keep up (just like the team in general) when all the other team kick it into high gear. KK was not a factor in most game even before the 2/3, but the more pressure CJ feel to win to hold on to the playoff spot the worst it got for KK. We didn’t miss out on the playoff because of KK play...

 

[Pierre Dagenais]

We're probably going to go with 4 forwards and 4 D since most of our good forwards won't require protection (kk, suzuki, poehling, caufield) or will be ufa (tatar, danault)

So
F: Domi, Drouin, Gallagher, Armia
D: Weber, Mete, Juulsen, Fleury
G: Price

Notable players exposed: Byron, Lehkonen, Chariot
So we really won't be losing much.

If we decide to re-sign Danault early or sign a top ufa like Hall, we can protect them instead of Armia.

Else we can just re-sign Tatar, Danault, Petry after the expansion draft.
Juulsen will require waivers next year, and there is no spot available at RD, so we will probably make a decision on him earlier.

My guess would be Seattle picks Lehkonen.

Armia is UFA in 2021, he won't be protected.

I can see Chiarot being a valuable pickup for an expansion team.

 

[Number 57]

We have so many good kids coming up and so much depth in 3rd/4th line players that I'm not really worried who they pick. Our main core will be protected for sure and our top prospects don't need protection. Honestly even if they end up losing Price, Weber, Petry or Tatar I won't mind that much because they are all getting old (especially in June 2021) and can be replaced from within

 

[26Mats]

We have so many good kids coming up and so much depth in 3rd/4th line players that I'm not really worried who they pick. Our main core will be protected for sure and our top prospects don't need protection. Honestly even if they end up losing Price, Weber, Petry or Tatar I won't mind that much because they are all getting old (especially in June 2021) and can be replaced from within

We may lose Juulsen or Fleury.

 

[26Mats]

We're probably going to go with 4 forwards and 4 D since most of our good forwards won't require protection (kk, suzuki, poehling, caufield) or will be ufa (tatar, danault)

So
F: Domi, Drouin, Gallagher, Armia
D: Weber, Mete, Juulsen, Fleury
G: Price

Notable players exposed: Byron, Lehkonen, Chariot
So we really won't be losing much.

If we decide to re-sign Danault early or sign a top ufa like Hall, we can protect them instead of Armia.

Else we can just re-sign Tatar, Danault, Petry after the expansion draft.
Juulsen will require waivers next year, and there is no spot available at RD, so we will probably make a decision on him earlier.

My guess would be Seattle picks Lehkonen.

Doesn't KK have to be protected?

If yes, it's looking like we'll lose Juulsen, Armia, or Lehkonen.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Doesn't KK have to be protected?

If yes, it's looking like we'll lose Juulsen, Armia, or Lehkonen.

Yes, anybody who played AHL or NHL last year will need to be protected or they will be exposed to the draft. Poehling is the only exception I believe but not 100% sure.

I think It will come down to one of Juulsen, Armia, Lehkonen, or Fleury. Some say Fleury will be protected for sure and I agree with that today but we have 1.75 more seasons to go and who knows what Juulsen and Fleury do in that span.

 

[26Mats]

Yes, anybody who played AHL or NHL last year will need to be protected or they will be exposed to the draft. Poehling is the only exception I believe but not 100% sure.

I think It will come down to one of Juulsen, Armia, Lehkonen, or Fleury. Some say Fleury will be protected for sure and I agree with that today but we have 1.75 more seasons to go and who knows what Juulsen and Fleury do in that span.

Just checked Armia is a ufa. So Lehkonen, Juulsen or Fleury.

I would guess, whoever's playing the worst of those 3 will be left unprotected or traded, Beaulieu style.

If we sign any ufa's next summer, that could change things. But this seems to be how it is for now.

 

[Frozenice]

Just checked Armia is a ufa. So Lehkonen, Juulsen or Fleury.

I would guess, whoever's playing the worst of those 3 will be left unprotected or traded, Beaulieu style.

If we sign any ufa's next summer, that could change things. But this seems to be how it is for now.

I always thought UFA meant unrestricted free agent, as in the player was free to sign wherever he chose. Don’t see that providing us any protection.

 

[BaseballCoach]

Yes, anybody who played AHL or NHL last year will need to be protected or they will be exposed to the draft. Poehling is the only exception I believe but not 100% sure.

I think It will come down to one of Juulsen, Armia, Lehkonen, or Fleury. Some say Fleury will be protected for sure and I agree with that today but we have 1.75 more seasons to go and who knows what Juulsen and Fleury do in that span.

Petry, Mete and Fleury. Nobody is taking Weber at $8M cap hit for 5 years.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Players exempt (Less than 3 years of pro experience): Caufield, Suzuki, Primeau, Romanov, Norlinder, Brook, Ylonen, Harris, Struble, Leskinen, Olofsson, Hillis, ect.
* Not sure with Poehling. He played one NHL game last year and burned his ELC but not sure if he burned his 1st RFA year as a 20 year old. Something to do with his Jan birth date and signing year. I believe he is exempt but not sure. Anybody know?

Goalies who are exposed if not protected:
- Price: Likely protected
- Lindgren: UFA in 2021
- McNiven: RFA in 2020
* Need one goalie under contract who is exposed

Defenseman who are exposed if not protected:
- Weber: Likely protected but might be for 1 or 2 seasons left where his salary drops to $3M when he is 37 and $1M when he is 38
- Mete: RFA in 2020 and Likely gets protected with a new contract
- Chiarot, Kulak, Alzner: UFA in 2022 and not likely protected (especially Alzner )
- Juulsen and Fleury: Both are going to be on their 2nd contracts and we might protect 1 or both depending on their performances and what protection format we choose
- Petry: UFA in 2021. He will get protected if we extend him. Do we protect him with no contract? Doubt that cause we didn't protect Radulov in 2017
- Reilly: UFA in 2021
- Other exposed players if they are still with us: Sklenicka, Ouellet, Olofsson, etc.

Forwards who are exposed if not protected:
- Domi: RFA in 2020 and Likely gets protected with a new contract.
- Kotkaniemi: RFA in 2021 and Likely gets protected with a new contract
- Drouin: UFA in 2023 and Likely gets protected.
- Gallagher and Danault: UFA in 2021 and both get protected if we extend them
- Tatar and Armia: Also UFA in 2021 but not sure we have the cap space to extend Tatar and who knows about Armia
- Lehkonen: RFA in 2021 and likely gets extended. Not sure if he is protected though.
- Byron: UFA in 2023 and likely does not get protected
- Other exposed players if they are still with us: Weal, Thompson, Cousins, Hudon, Evans, Vejdemo, ect.

Things will change for sure in the next 1.75 seasons before the expansion draft in 2021 but as it stands now, I don't believe they go after a UFA and if we use the 1G, 3D, 7F protection format, it comes down to either Fleury or Juulsen IMO.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Just checked Armia is a ufa. So Lehkonen, Juulsen or Fleury.

I would guess, whoever's playing the worst of those 3 will be left unprotected or traded, Beaulieu style.

If we sign any ufa's next summer, that could change things. But this seems to be how it is for now.

I tried to break it down more clearly in post 464. I think it comes down to one of Juulsen or Fleury as it stands today. Things can change though in the next 1.75 seasons.

Very curious with Poehling though. "The signing year" of 2019 burned his ELC cause he was 20 when he signed it but he did not play 40 NHL games so does last season count as a "pro" year? Closest exampled I can find is Nylander but it's not exactly the same.... Nylander was exempt from the 2017 draft cause he did not play 40 games that year. It appears the "pro AHL/NHL years" are in line with the RFA rules but this is where I am assuming.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Petry, Mete and Fleury

Is this who you would protect? I would as well cause Weber likely retires 1 or 2 more seasons after and is 36 and 37 in those seasons. Just hope that Petry is OK to sign a 2 year deal at the age of 33 like Edler did last year. If Petry wants 5 or 6 years, the AAV needs to be very manageable. Does other teams offer him the 5 or 6 year term at 33? Doubt it but it's possible.

Do you know if Poehling is exempt? A pretty unique case.

- Turned 20 in Jan of 2019.
- Signed his ELC as a 20 year old and because his "signing year" happened when he was 20, he burned the first year of his ELC by only playing 1 NHL game.
- Does last year count as a RFA year where he was not 20 before 2019 and he did not play 40 NHL games? Similar to Nylander but not quite. Can't find a better example but because Nylander was exempt from the 2017 draft, I'm assuming the expansion draft follows the RFA rules in terms of who is exposed and who is not?

 

[BaseballCoach]

Is this who you would protect? I would as well cause Weber likely retires 1 or 2 more seasons after and is 36 and 37 in those seasons. Just hope that Petry is OK to sign a 2 year deal at the age of 33 like Edler did last year. If Petry wants 5 or 6 years, the AAV needs to be very manageable. Does other teams offer him the 5 or 6 year term at 33? Doubt it but it's possible.

Do you know if Poehling is exempt? A pretty unique case.

- Turned 20 in Jan of 2019.
- Signed his ELC as a 20 year old and because his "signing year" happened when he was 20, he burned the first year of his ELC by only playing 1 NHL game.
- Does last year count as a RFA year where he was not 20 before 2019 and he did not play 40 NHL games? Similar to Nylander but not quite. Can't find a better example but because Nylander was exempt from the 2017 draft, I'm assuming the expansion draft follows the RFA rules in terms of who is exposed and who is not?

Poehling is exempt. The Habs were told last year, and that is why they signed him to the contract when they did.

 

[Habs Halifax]

Poehling is exempt. The Habs were told last year, and that is why they signed him to the contract when they did.

That was my believe as well. How does the rules apply though where we can justify it?

- He got to burn his 1st ELC year by playing 1 NHL game instead of 10. He was 19 before Jan of 2019 but was 20 in his "signing year"
- He did not have a RFA season last year burned though? How so? Cause he was 19 from Oct - Jan 1st of last season? Is it as simple as he did not play 40 NHL games? Like how Nylander was exempt in 2017?

 

[BaseballCoach]

That was my believe as well. How does the rules apply though where we can justify it?

- He got to burn his 1st ELC year by playing 1 NHL game instead of 10. He was 19 before Jan of 2019 but was 20 in his "signing year"
- He did not have a RFA season last year burned though? How so? Cause he was 19 from Oct - Jan 1st of last season? Is it as simple as he did not play 40 NHL games? Like how Nylander was exempt in 2017?

If I remember right, it was Nylander that was the precedent.

 

[Number 57]

I always thought UFA meant unrestricted free agent, as in the player was free to sign wherever he chose. Don’t see that providing us any protection.

Bergevin can negotiate beforehand with the player and leave him unprotected for Seattle. Las time around, Vegas did not select a single UFA-to-be in June, knowing they could lose the player just days later. There was no point. While they were permitted to negotiate with every UFAs before the expansion draft, they didn't select anyone.

It's safe to say if Petry, Gallagher, Armia and co actually want to go to Seattle, then they definitely could as UFAs. But more realistically, they will re-sign here after the expansion draft, near July 1st. This will allow us to protect other players.

 

[CauZuki]

Hopefully we can pay Seattle to select Julien...

 

[Frozenice]

Bergevin can negotiate beforehand with the player and leave him unprotected for Seattle. Las time around, Vegas did not select a single UFA-to-be in June, knowing they could lose the player just days later. There was no point. While they were permitted to negotiate with every UFAs before the expansion draft, they didn't select anyone.

It's safe to say if Petry, Gallagher, Armia and co actually want to go to Seattle, then they definitely could as UFAs. But more realistically, they will re-sign here after the expansion draft, near July 1st. This will allow us to protect other players.

I’m not a fan of that strategy, we don’t have that much elite talent that we need to be doing stuff like that. With all 3 players, sign them if you want or trade them at the trade deadline, I’d keep them as they all seem to want to be here, we can’t afford to lose them for nothing, I’d rather lose someone else instead, like Lehkonen or Byron.

 

[Benstheman]

Can someone explain to me why many people think we will not protect Mete from the expansion draft?

 

[Ozmodiar]

Can someone explain to me why many people think we will not protect Mete from the expansion draft?

he isn’t very good.

 

[Benstheman]

he isn’t very good.

ok but who the he’ll do you protect before him?? Weber yeah, Chiarot ok yeah. Who else