Examining the Defence for next season

[Lonewolfe2015]

Zadorov will be traded for picks. We will trade picks and maybe Jost to Columbus (who are without a 2nd and a 3rd this year while only drafting 3 players total last year) for Josh Anderson.

I feel like I just witnessed the future, was unphased by how mundane it was and relegated myself back to quarantine all in one bizarre moment because of this.

Zadorov turning into Anderson is so... bleh. This team could do better than another middle 6 tweener at the expense of their main physical presence from the blue line. I know he's on the chopping block... but I'm not prepared to accept it yet.

 

[The Abusement Park]

I feel like I just witnessed the future, was unphased by how mundane it was and relegated myself back to quarantine all in one bizarre moment because of this.

Zadorov turning into Anderson is so... bleh. This team could do better than another middle 6 tweener at the expense of their main physical presence from the blue line. I know he's on the chopping block... but I'm not prepared to accept it yet.

I mean Josh Anderson would be a great replacement for Z's physicality. Also a middle 6 forward for a bottom pair dman is a trade that makes sense value wise.

 

[Cousin Eddie]

I feel like I just witnessed the future, was unphased by how mundane it was and relegated myself back to quarantine all in one bizarre moment because of this.

Zadorov turning into Anderson is so... bleh. This team could do better than another middle 6 tweener at the expense of their main physical presence from the blue line. I know he's on the chopping block... but I'm not prepared to accept it yet.

There’s no room for Zadorov on the roster. This scenario brings us back a player to replace the physicality lost from Zadorov while also filling a need in the forward group.

 

[Richard88]

There’s no room for Zadorov on the roster. This scenario brings us back a player to replace the physicality lost from Zadorov while also filling a need in the forward group.

The logical move is obviously to shift Zadorov for picks. However, if good offers for Zadorov aren't forthcoming this offseason then there's a case to be made for resigning him for 1 more year (he has 2 years to UFA), and trading Cole instead.

Consider that rebuilding teams won't want to be trading away good draft picks (like the 2nd's and 3rd's we want for Zadorov), and that at the other end of the spectrum most contenders are going to be up against the flat cap ceiling and unwilling to absorb $3m+ in caphit without salary being sent the other way.

That said, Cole could be a better alternative then for teams needing a LHD but who aren't necessarily willing to give up high picks (like the 2nd + 3rd suggested as a return for Zadorov). Cole could be sent to NJ for example, in exchange for a 4th or thereabouts (maybe we have a small add as well for their trouble).

Once Cole is moved we sign Zadorov to another 1 year 'prove it' deal (taking it to arbitration if necessary). It's unlikely that he gets more than $3.5m based on this season, which capwise is actually a better hit for the season on the 3rd pairing than Cole's $4.25m.

Z also brings an intimidating physical presence that Cole doesn't, which could also be invaluable when trying to introduce both Byram and Timmins this season. Going forwards it might actually be worth keeping Zadorov instead of Graves just to pair him with Timmins to ensure that he doesn't get levelled by anyone and concussed again...

Byram --- Makar
Girard --- Johnson
Zadorov - Timmins
7D

Graves could feasibly fetch more in a trade at this point in time as well, but it will surely simply come down to what Graves and Zadorov will be asking for on their next contracts.

Should Timmins and Byram both successfully make the step up we could always trade Zadorov mid-season, as there's always a handful of teams that need help on D after injuries strike during the season. Alternatively I'm sure we could get a decent haul at the deadline from contenders who would at that stage have the cap room (due to cap accrual) to take on Zadorov's cap hit (or, you know, we use him as our own rental).

Obviously we would run the risk of losing Zadorov (or Graves) in the ED if we kept him, but is that really that bad? The alternative would be Compher who probably fetches about the same 2nd + 3rd value in a trade as we think Zadorov does. And should Zadorov go unselected by Seattle then I'm sure we could find takers for him via trade after the ED if needed, as the cap should go up again at that stage, and teams would then also have the freedom to load up with 4th Dmen that they don't need to worry about protecting in the ED anymore.

For the record I still think the likeliest outcome is that Zadorov gets traded, but I don't think it's so cut-and-dry until we find out what his and Graves' asking prices are going to be (or perhaps rather, what arbitration will award), along with what sort of offers teams will make for either of them.

 

[henchman21]

Zadorov isn't going to be trusted enough to pair up with a rookie. Cole is sticking around to guide either Byram or Timmins, and has a clear end point with his contract (Z can go to arbitration and get 2 years). Graves earned his role next to Makar and surpassed Z. Graves is younger, cheaper and more trusted than Z. Personally, I'd prefer to keep Z over Cole, but no NHL organization is going to trust Z to break in a rookie defender. It just isn't realistic. Z lost his spot here when Graves passed him on the depth chart.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Like most, I expect Z gone. If Petro hits the market I expect Joe to go for him, but I don't expect him to sign here.

season opener:

Graves - Makar
Girard - EJ
Byram - Cole
Timmins

By Christmas

Byram - Makar
Girard - Timmins
Graves - EJ
Cole

 

[Richard88]

Zadorov isn't going to be trusted enough to pair up with a rookie. Cole is sticking around to guide either Byram or Timmins, and has a clear end point with his contract (Z can go to arbitration and get 2 years). Graves earned his role next to Makar and surpassed Z. Graves is younger, cheaper and more trusted than Z. Personally, I'd prefer to keep Z over Cole, but no NHL organization is going to trust Z to break in a rookie defender. It just isn't realistic. Z lost his spot here when Graves passed him on the depth chart.

I completely agree. In my post I was kinda thinking out loud to about the reasons for keeping Zadorov. But in writing that it became clear that I was reaching. Zadorov is moving on for sure.

I hadn't realised that Zadorov could get 2 years in arbitration, thanks for pointing that out. I guess that's a wrap on that then; no way Sakic wants to leave things open ended and let arbitrators mess up his plans for the cap and D core.

Btw, there's literally only 5 weeks in age difference between Graves (24 years, May 21, 1995) and Zadorov (25 years April 16, 1995), so he's not that much younger! But he certainly has a lot less NHL mileage on his body which is positive at least.

 

[avsfan09]

Here’s a solution to solve our problems. Lets just turn Zadorov into a Tom Wilson like winger. As an opposing defensemen that’d be scary on the forecheck.

 

[Richard88]

Like most, I expect Z gone. If Petro hits the market I expect Joe to go for him, but I don't expect him to sign here.

season opener:

Graves - Makar
Girard - EJ
Byram - Cole
Timmins

By Christmas

Byram - Makar
Girard - Timmins
Graves - EJ
Cole

Is the general consensus here that we won't sign a No.7 Dman to replace Barberio, but instead just roll with Timmins as the No.7 D to start?

I would have thought that we'd sign someone cheap like Barberio or Connauton to eat nachos, thereby allowing Timmins to start the year playing regularly in the AHL until such time that Byram has settled enough for Timmins to be called up as well. Maybe I'm overthinking it though.

Btw, does anyone think that MacDonald stands a chance at featuring next season? He's done pretty well in the AHL as well as at Florida, so might be worth a look at some stage. Also curious if anyone knows if there are any plans to bring Zhuravlyov over anytime soon, or if he's going to get the slow burner treatment in the KHL for a few more years.

 

[Richard88]

Here’s a solution to solve our problems. Lets just turn Zadorov into a Tom Wilson like winger. As an opposing defensemen that’d be scary on the forecheck.

Zadorov ---- Kadri ---- Nichuskin

 

[henchman21]

I completely agree. In my post I was kinda thinking out loud to about the reasons for keeping Zadorov. But in writing that it became clear that I was reaching. Zadorov is moving on for sure.

I hadn't realised that Zadorov could get 2 years in arbitration, thanks for pointing that out. I guess that's a wrap on that then; no way Sakic wants to leave things open ended and let arbitrators mess up his plans for the cap and D core.

Btw, there's literally only 5 weeks in age difference between Graves (24 years, May 21, 1995) and Zadorov (25 years April 16, 1995), so he's not that much younger! But he certainly has a lot less NHL mileage on his body which is positive at least.

The length would depend on who filed for arbitration. The opposite party can elect the term. So if the player elects, Avs can select one or two years. If the Avs go to arbitration, Z can elect one or two years. Personally I don't think either want to go down the arbitration route, so kind of a nonstarter and risky for either party.

Still younger! I don't think Graves is going to grow or develop much more, but he could probably cut down his mistakes through experience. The bigger point is that he gained trust of the coaches, grabbed a bigger role, and is cheaper than Z. When that happens with a non-heralded player... and there are two other young players on the depth chart, it just means the end is near. If the Avs had gone for a forward in the draft instead of Byram, Z would be here. If Graves hadn't surpassed Z, Z would still be here. If Girard didn't come over in the Duchene trade, Z would still be here. With all three of those happening, there just isn't room. Especially with as big of personality as he has. He won't take being a 6-8 defensemen well. He isn't the type to eat nachos and be happy, he'd head back to Russia first.

 

[Richard88]

The length would depend on who filed for arbitration. The opposite party can elect the term. So if the player elects, Avs can select one or two years. If the Avs go to arbitration, Z can elect one or two years. Personally I don't think either want to go down the arbitration route, so kind of a nonstarter and risky for either party.

Still younger! I don't think Graves is going to grow or develop much more, but he could probably cut down his mistakes through experience. The bigger point is that he gained trust of the coaches, grabbed a bigger role, and is cheaper than Z. When that happens with a non-heralded player... and there are two other young players on the depth chart, it just means the end is near. If the Avs had gone for a forward in the draft instead of Byram, Z would be here. If Graves hadn't surpassed Z, Z would still be here. If Girard didn't come over in the Duchene trade, Z would still be here. With all three of those happening, there just isn't room. Especially with as big of personality as he has. He won't take being a 6-8 defensemen well. He isn't the type to eat nachos and be happy, he'd head back to Russia first.

Thanks for clarifying, much appreciated!

What sort of contract do you think Graves will get? Most estimates I've seen put him somewhere between $2.25m and $2.75m... but is there any actual basis for that? As in, are there any clear comparables for a 24 year old rookie defenseman appearing out of seemingly nowhere to lead the entire league in +/- and feature prominently on a teams' first D pairing?

I guess that due to having only showcased himself for a little under one season he won't have a super strong case to exceed $3m, and from both his perspective and the teams' perspective maybe a short 2-3 year "prove it" deal would be best.

 

[henchman21]

Thanks for clarifying, much appreciated!

What sort of contract do you think Graves will get? Most estimates I've seen put him somewhere between $2.25m and $2.75m... but is there any actual basis for that? As in, are there any clear comparables for a 24 year old rookie defenseman appearing out of seemingly nowhere to lead the entire league in +/- and feature prominently on a teams' first D pairing?

I guess that due to having only showcased himself for a little under one season he won't have a super strong case to exceed $3m, and from both his perspective and the teams' perspective maybe a short 2-3 year "prove it" deal would be best.

I think it will be a 2-3 year deal somewhere in the mid to high 2s. If it is 3 it will be near $3m as it buys a UFA year. If it is 2, mid 2s. His lack of tenure on his resume basically give the Avs a ton of leverage in any arbitration. I doubt they want to sour the relationship, so they will point to Nemo's value as what they can pay a breakout player. Graves' agent will be pushing for security/term. After years of languishing in the minors... ~8m and still able to cash in at 28 might sound awfully good.

 

[Freaky Styley]

Is the general consensus here that we won't sign a No.7 Dman to replace Barberio, but instead just roll with Timmins as the No.7 D to start?

I would have thought that we'd sign someone cheap like Barberio or Connauton to eat nachos, thereby allowing Timmins to start the year playing regularly in the AHL until such time that Byram has settled enough for Timmins to be called up as well. Maybe I'm overthinking it though.

Btw, does anyone think that MacDonald stands a chance at featuring next season? He's done pretty well in the AHL as well as at Florida, so might be worth a look at some stage. Also curious if anyone knows if there are any plans to bring Zhuravlyov over anytime soon, or if he's going to get the slow burner treatment in the KHL for a few more years.

I'm probably the biggest Timmins fanboy you'll find so my take might not represent general consensus. I'm sure we will sign a guy as a 7th dman just as insurance before the season, but I think Timmins will play his way onto the team again and stick this time. Obviously it comes down to the question of what's more beneficial to his development, but rotating into the lineup with Cole could actually benefit both players over the longevity of a season.
It never hurts having a few guys like Connaughton, Macdonald etc. In the AHL for insurance, even if you have to waive a guy you initially penciled in the roster. I think it's time for a change from Barbs though, maybe someone like Dalton Prout to bring some more jam to the lineup without Z

 

[shadow1]

I expect Zadorov to be traded, and Graves to be retained. Though I think that could be flipped if a team makes the Avalanche a huge offer for Graves, which is definitely within the realm of possibilities.

Byram
Cole
Girard
Graves
Johnson
Makar
Timmins
+ 1 Veteran (bench warmer type, think Barberio level)

 

[Math the wild rose]

I lost interest in the Nhl two or 3 years ago when i saw what team the Habs was really.. I cant stand to see Weber, Mete, Kulak and the other guys at defense, and the Attack is getting better with Suzuki, drouin, phoeling and and kotkaniemi but i dont consider this attack to be elite as a group at any point. They should be ready to make an impact on the game just like yours maybe in two years or 3, i hope they build their defense just like you did after completing your attack. This bring that the devlopment of a winning team is by wave and over a decade in term of accomplisments. I now deserted the habs knowing what kind of mascarade and country club this team is now. I lost interest too in Flyers when i saw what garbage their attack will be in two or 3 years when the defense will cost very much to them and Carter hart will sign a significant augmentation.

So now i started to find a couple of teams a like very much like The Canucks ( i love how this team is built, and so much exciting to watch) The Avs is really exciting to watch too! I think you have more of a grinder team than raw talents like the Canucks, but in the next 5 years this team will be a serious contender. I watched Byram again and you just found your next John Carlson but 10 years younger, imagine this player when he can be 22 years old-23 years old. How much this team can better? lol

 

[Math the wild rose]

Zadorov ---- Kadri ---- Nichuskin

Just like big buf traded from offense to defense, man this line would be devasting...two bigs guys on forechecks and a passer that stay at the blue line to check the incoming guy. lol

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Is it weird that I feel totally comfortable with a Makar-Graves top pairing next year?

Graves definitely frustrated me at times this season (shooting the puck an excessive amount), but overall I enjoyed his game. It’s nice to have some size on defence with all the skill guys we have on the roster and in the system.

How do you feel about Graves getting increased minutes next season? It seems pretty likely since Makar will be playing more. I could see him getting around 21-22 minutes a night.

 

[henchman21]

How do you feel about Graves getting increased minutes next season? It seems pretty likely since Makar will be playing more. I could see him getting around 21 minutes a night.

That is basically what he was getting from December-on (20:39). If Makar is healthy all next season, I see Gravy in that 21-22 range. Naturally if Makar is out his minutes will likely trim back to the ~19 level.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

That is basically what he was getting from December-on (20:39). If Makar is healthy all next season, I see Gravy in that 21-22 range. Naturally if Makar is out his minutes will likely trim back to the ~19 level.

He’s a really interesting player.

He had a good start to his development in his first couple years in the AHL. After that he really didn’t play much. Only 70 games in three years.

It kinda makes you see why there might have been some untapped upside that the Rangers didn’t see.

Next season will be really telling for Graves. If he can handle an increased role and play at the same, or better level, he could become a core player for this team.

Edit: Wrong info on games played.

 

[henchman21]

He’s a really interesting player.

He had a good start to his development in his first couple years in the AHL. After that he really didn’t play much. Only 70 games in three years.

It kinda makes you see why there might have been some untapped upside that the Rangers didn’t see.

Next season will be really telling for Graves. If he can handle an increased role and play at the same, or better level, he could become a core player for this team.

Not sure how you are referencing that, but he played a significant amount still. Might just be the breakup of the moves. He just simply fell out of favor with the Rangers organization when he didn't break camp with them in 2017 and he didn't react well in the AHL.

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

Not sure how you are referencing that, but he played a significant amount still. Might just be the breakup of the moves. He just simply fell out of favor with the Rangers organization when he didn't break camp with them in 2017 and he didn't react well in the AHL.

Oh sorry, my B.

I was looking at the season where he was traded and counted it as two different seasons lol.

 

[GoNordiquesGo]

Is the general consensus here that we won't sign a No.7 Dman to replace Barberio, but instead just roll with Timmins as the No.7 D to start?

I would have thought that we'd sign someone cheap like Barberio or Connauton to eat nachos, thereby allowing Timmins to start the year playing regularly in the AHL until such time that Byram has settled enough for Timmins to be called up as well. Maybe I'm overthinking it though.

Btw, does anyone think that MacDonald stands a chance at featuring next season? He's done pretty well in the AHL as well as at Florida, so might be worth a look at some stage. Also curious if anyone knows if there are any plans to bring Zhuravlyov over anytime soon, or if he's going to get the slow burner treatment in the KHL for a few more years.

I'm pretty sure we'll sign one because Timmins will be playing in the AHL rather than sitting on the bench as 7th Dman. But if Timmins does well in the AHL, he'll be called-up and might even play ahead of that 7th Dmen.

 

[Richard88]

An article published yesterday about the outlook of our defence:

2020-21 Avalanche Blue Line: Are Bowen Byram and Conor Timmins on It?

https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-21-avalanche-blue-line-are-bowen-byram-and-conor-timmins-on-it/

 

[Northern Avs Fan]

An article published yesterday about the outlook of our defence:

2020-21 Avalanche Blue Line: Are Bowen Byram and Conor Timmins on It?

https://thehockeywriters.com/2020-21-avalanche-blue-line-are-bowen-byram-and-conor-timmins-on-it/

Interesting read.

The proposed defence in the article would be good.

Graves - Makar
Girard - Johnson
Cole - Timmins

My issue with sending Byram to junior again is it might stall his development.

Maybe Timmins is more NHL ready, I don’t know. But at least if Timmins goes to the AHL he can continue his development.

As for having both of them on the blue line, they are right in saying it’s unlikely. Though I don’t know if the Avs would be too worried about having so much youth on defence. Girard and Makar are not your average young defenceman.