[Evolving Hockey] Defenseman GAR Ranking for 2019-2020

[KirkAlbuquerque]

Makar was a rookie

Wow

 

[BringTheReign]

I always knew Matt Roy was among the league's elite

Matt Roy, that player we all know and love

I know this sounds sarcastic, but I will never not laugh at a "who is Matt Roy" joke. He was a 7th round pick who none of the fan base expected to do anything, and then he came in and was our best defenseman, bar none.

This'll sound dumb, but he does all the simple things at a borderline-star level. He'll never have the offense necessary to be a #1 defenseman, but he'll be the guy who quietly plays 24 minutes a night and allows players like Doughty to go do all the fancy stuff.

I will also mention that he was a rookie on one of the worst teams in the league, and he still passed the eye test as well as garnered all the advanced metrics.

 

[PB37]

I’m trying to come around to fancy stats, but it’s so hard when Ryan Ellis is double Quinn Hughes in metrics like this one.

I really like Ellis, but I just don’t see that kind of discrepancy between the two from watching them play.

Like with all advanced stats, i wouldn't take just one chart/graph alone to form an opinion. It just adds to the overall picture. Sometimes you get outliers who do shockingly well in the areas for advanced stats you're looking up but not so well in others.

 

[Just Linda]

A good example of why advanced stats should be used to highlight areas to take deeper looks into and not as the answer to questions. If the stats tell you something, it's the scouts job to answer why.

 

[Pure Slaughter Value]

I wonder how Pulock did with and without Pelech. As underrated as Pulock is, Pelech is far more underrated (and a steal at 1.6 the next two or three years).

The Pulock/Pelech pairing is by far the best the Islanders have seen in a while. Adding Dobson and Toews as a 2nd pairing will give the Isles an excellent top 4 for years.

 

[AvsFan29]

Wow

 

[Dr Jan Itor]

Brodin is good at the defense thing.

 

[stl76]

Vince Dunn is overrated. One of my favorite players, but this chart is overrating his impact.

 

[WatchfulElm]

I have no idea what that chart means.

It's a complex formula based on their number, the position of the letters of their name in the alphabet, their date of birth, their licence plate number, the name of their first animal and the price of their first hockey stick. Trust me.

 

[Aladyyn]

GAR is a much worse metric for evaluating defensemen than forwards but it's hard to argue that the guys on there aren't all very good players

 

[Dekes For Days]

GAR is a much worse metric for evaluating defensemen than forwards

It's bad for evaluating forwards too.

 

[BHD]

Not shocked by Ryan Pulock being that high. He is REALLY good. Probably the most underrated defensemen in the league.

 

[McDNicks17]

I'm curious why Ellis' EVO is so much higher than guys like Hamilton and Makar.

Hamilton has 0.01 less points/60 and much better metrics, but somehow it's less than half of Ellis'?

 

[LarKing]

The Human Rocket Ship has always been one of my favorites, so to see him at #1 is nice.

OTOH, not a single Blue Jackets defenseman is represented so clearly this whole thing is broken and terrible and I hate it and anyone using it is a fool. Or something.

There are no Red Wings so it checks out.

 

[VoluntaryDom]

in multi year samples, ellis hedman and mcavoy rise to the top

 

[VoluntaryDom]

I'm curious why Ellis' EVO is so much higher than guys like Hamilton and Makar.

Hamilton has 0.01 less points/60 and much better metrics, but somehow it's less than half of Ellis'?

in xgar ellis is behind those guys offensively, but xgar gets super wonky with its shooting talent things, and so gar is imo much better in a large sample. ellis remains dominant in multi year gar samples (since he entered the league, hes behind only Victor Hedman in GAR, or if you prefer the same is true in WAR and SPAR)

as for this year ellis' goals impact by RAPM is insane which explains his EVO GAR. (this is up to 4 SDs, usually you only see up to 3)

 

[Minnesnota]

Brodin is good at the defense thing.

Would love to see this weighted by toughness of competition too.

 

[McDNicks17]

in xgar ellis is behind those guys offensively, but xgar gets super wonky with its shooting talent things, and so gar is imo much better in a large sample. ellis remains dominant in multi year gar samples (since he entered the league, hes behind only Victor Hedman in GAR, or if you prefer the same is true in WAR and SPAR)

as for this year ellis' goals impact by RAPM is insane which explains his EVO GAR. (this is up to 4 SDs, usually you only see up to 3)View attachment 349333

Seems odd that RAPM takes a huge chunk out of Hamilton's xGF/60.

He led defensemen in it by a mile. Shouldn't it look like Ellis' GF/60?

 

[VoluntaryDom]

Seems odd that RAPM takes a huge chunk out of Hamilton's xGF/60.

He led defensemen in it by a mile. Shouldn't it look like Ellis' GF/60?

RAPM is adjusted for teammates. carolina was behind only vegas in xGF/60 as a team. also, these are 2 of his 4 most common teammates (svechnikov's xGF does what you said dougie's should lol)

 

[TomasHertlsRooster]

I'm curious why Ellis' EVO is so much higher than guys like Hamilton and Makar.

Hamilton has 0.01 less points/60 and much better metrics, but somehow it's less than half of Ellis'?

GAR uses regression of on-ice GF, not points, to calculate EV offense.

At 5-on-5 with Ellis the Predators scored 4.09 GF/60 and without him they scored 2.29 GF/60. It makes sense that any regression model would suggest he had an absolutely insane impact on his team’s on-ice goal rates.

While Ellis is an excellent defenseman, the fact that he ranks so high shows a few of the key flaws with this stat. Using on-ice GF (or individual scoring) for any player in a single year sample will tend to produce some wacky results due to variations in on-ice shooting and GAR is no different in that respect. The even strength offense component of GAR explains a huge portion of the variance observed in skater GAR from year to year, but quite often it can be heavily skewed by luck. This is an even bigger problem for defensemen because conventional wisdom and research both tell us that unlike forwards, defensemen have little control over their on-ice shooting rates to begin with; it’s probably not actually Ellis’ doing that the Predators are shooting 11.28% with him and 7.43% without him, yet a glance at the results just says “Ellis was the best.”

It’s still a very useful metric, but it’s obviously not something that anybody should just take as gospel or a definitive ranking. Ideally, you’d see analytics fans use it the way that “eye test” fans use points today; not a definitive judge of player value, but the list of best players by position will generally look similar to the list of best players by this stat. In practice I think that mostly holds.

 

[WhiskeyYerTheDevils]

Surprising to see Fox so high, but at the same time, also not. Also Ellis & Spurgeon are 2 guys who don't get anywhere near as much recognition as they deserve

Not surprised by Fox at all. Dude is going to be an elite defenseman on both sides of thr puck. His defensive impact is incredibly underrated.

 

[TeddyBare]

It's bad for evaluating forwards too.

Let me guess, the the way you evaluate forwards is much better.

 

[Emell]

Wouldn't trust a thing that comes out of that company.

All of their 'advanced' stats seem to be mostly-garbage and are used as a tool to gain attention and notoriety. Great job in aiding them this way.

That’s most advanced stats given any public platform, though

 

[Dekes For Days]

Let me guess, the the way you evaluate forwards is much better.

It's not hard to be better than GAR.

 

[jetsforever]

TBH I've never heard of Matt Roy.