Everything COVID19 - PART 4

[Sens of Anarchy]

Virologist hospitalized with coronavirus believes he got it through his eyes

 

[ColinM]

The issue with these debates is that they're so often framed in the context of a world without isolation AND without the virus, which is just not realistic. Hard to prove anything definitely one way or the other, but I have much more faith in our collective ability to rebuild a functional economy and dig ourselves out of a tough spot than I do in our ability to withstand a highly contagious and fatal disease by pretending like it didn't exist. Better to do too much than not enough, always.

This is true. However I think for many the more relevant conversation is what to do next. For example how soon can playgrounds open? how soon can inter provincial borders open? What about the Canada - US border? I understand there isn't a simple answer since playgrounds are likely to be safer right now in rural New Brunswick than they are in downtown Toronto. But on the other hand for some, never will be too soon and for others tomorrow is the day we should go back to normal. Like most people I'm somewhere in the middle. I'd be happy to have playgrounds in Nova Scotia open tomorrow but I wouldn't want the provincial border (or the main airports) open for a while.

 

[maclean]

People are going to get fed up with being in lockdown and will start going out more and the seroprevalence of the virus, a measure of how many people in a population have it, is very low: we were hoping that a lot of people actually had the virus but were asymptomatic but we have good reason to believe that that is not the case.

There is also reason to believe people who catch it are not immune to it. We don't know for sure but there are increasing reports of people catching it twice or more.



This virus is absolutely insanely contagious and is at it's most contagious before someone who has it shows symptoms of having it.

The gradual opening up of the economy means it is going to spread like wildfire.



Almost 90,000 Americans have died from this and the numbers keep going up. The lockdowns were a resounding success: countries who immediately took this very seriously have shown the lockdowns were very effective. A lot of people like to point to Sweden as proof that the lockdowns were unnecessary but it isn't that simple a comparison and it is worth remembering the idiom "the exception proves the rule".

A second wave is almost inevitable for the reasons listed above. I am starting to lose it myself so I totally get that the lockdown can only go so far but this virus is one nasty customer.

Some points I agree with. Certainly people are fed up and stir crazy and loosening of restrictions is going to cause them to let loose. I've seen this already here - restaurant and bar patios are now open (people only allowed inside to use the bathroom) and of course people are gathered in droves, not distancing, masks down because how do you drink with a mask on. On the other hand we really don't have many cases here - yesterday 55 new cases, under 100 a day for the past fifteen days (with a population of over 10 million). So not only is keeping a strict lockdown untenable long-term, it's not really fair to the rest of us either with such low risk. The fact is that the chance of a super-spreader popping up with such low infection level here is fairly low, and if it does happen, they have tracing in place to track down and test those they may have come in contact with. In theory anyhow.

Another important factor to consider is that this started up during regular flu season, there wasn't as much awareness and lots of people were spreading it because they thought they just had a regular cold or were just a little under the weather. I would think this is front and centre in people's minds now and people are keeping a closer eye on their health, so if testing is readily available, you would hope people could catch it faster and avoid spreading it. The paranoia will not disappear that easily. Indeed a lot of the hygiene and public health measures we consider standard date back to previous flu pandemics. Of course it was the Spanish Flu whose subsequent waves were much worse, but conditions have truly changed a lot since then. The good thing about re-opening now is that with the improving weather, lots more people will be outside, and it has a lot harder time spreading in open-air conditions.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Update:

Since coming back to Canada 5 days ago, I started getting sore throat and fatigue/headache, gonna get tested soon, healthontario scheduled call back but nothing yet.

I had on mask, gloves, and face shield almost entire duration (I took them off when eating on plane, I was starving with 16 hour layover and 12 hour flight but I was extra vigilant and avoided anything that was preopened). I also had health concerns prior so I cant take no chances. Stayed long layover in Montreal, went to hotel there cause missed my connection flight (thanks westjet). I was shocked to see the contrast in protocol in Qatar vs MTL airports. Very few employees at the latter airport had masks or gloves, even the TSA employees more than half didnt bother. What was funny was that they actually kept their distance from me (someone who took all the precautions) vs other passengers who had nooo masks or gloves and they got up close and personal with each other as they patted them down and asked questions, it looked like ridiculous opportunity for spread of corona through that one area. They also were extremely careless in their approach when conducting security checks with health measures in mind vs Qatar and Dubai airports. Toronto was just a tad bit better. Not a single employee in Qatar and Dubai airports did not have mask and gloves.

Qatar Airways was first class treatment, almost everyone had an entire seating row to themselves (I paid big bucks tho so not surprising). Many passengers were careless and were taking off their mask and walking around talking, they had to make few announcements reminding everyone it was against policy to do so; the French Canadien passengers did not seem to care and had to be reminded several times throughout the flight; one lady went on a rant screaming she's a health care worker and knows the risks and tried to undermine the policy, she was in the row infront of me and she was sneezing without covering her mouth and tried talking to the people in the rows around her, I had enough when she kept sneezing with her mouth uncovered and I told her to get up and move or wear a mask which I offered to provide her, she got rattled and asked to move.

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

Update:

Since coming back to Canada 5 days ago, I started getting sore throat and fatigue/headache, gonna get tested soon, healthontario scheduled call back but nothing yet.

I had on mask, gloves, and face shield almost entire duration (I took them off when eating on plane, I was starving with 16 hour layover and 12 hour flight but I was extra vigilant and avoided anything that was preopened). I also had health concerns prior so I cant take no chances. Stayed long layover in Montreal, went to hotel there cause missed my connection flight (thanks westjet). I was shocked to see the contrast in protocol in Qatar vs MTL airports. Very few employees at the latter airport had masks or gloves, even the TSA employees more than half didnt bother. What was funny was that they actually kept their distance from me (someone who took all the precautions) vs other passengers who had nooo masks or gloves and they got up close and personal with each other as they patted them down and asked questions, it looked like ridiculous opportunity for spread of corona through that one area. They also were extremely careless in their approach when conducting security checks with health measures in mind vs Qatar and Dubai airports. Toronto was just a tad bit better. Not a single employee in Qatar and Dubai airports did not have mask and gloves.

Qatar Airways was first class treatment, almost everyone had an entire seating row to themselves (I paid big bucks tho so not surprising). Many passengers were careless and were taking off their mask and walking around talking, they had to make few announcements reminding everyone it was against policy to do so; the French Canadien passengers did not seem to care and had to be reminded several times throughout the flight; one lady went on a rant screaming she's a health care worker and knows the risks and tried to undermine the policy, she was in the row infront of me and she was sneezing without covering her mouth and tried talking to the people in the rows around her, I had enough when she kept sneezing with her mouth uncovered and I told her to get up and move or wear a mask which I offered to provide her, she got rattled and asked to move.

Yikes! Did she happen to mention where she was working as a health care worker? I'm sure they'd love to know just how badly she needs retraining in basic medical procedures.

 

[ReginKarlssonLehner]

Yikes! Did she happen to mention where she was working as a health care worker? I'm sure they'd love to know just how badly she needs retraining in basic medical procedures.

Someone pressed the question and she told them off saying how dare you question a front line worker and then said some things in French.

Some folks are disgustingly intolerable. It’s amazing how simple protocol is made hell by some folks and it prolongs the state we are in as a collective.

Ridiculous. Put your ego aside and put on a mask and be cognizant of others.
I swear to you the looks I would get at the airport and plane looked like I was a monster to some people. Some guy 2 rows down had a full on hazmat(but simple mask) and some were laughing at him, I overheard him loudly tell one of the flight attendants that he has low immune system and he won’t be eating anything. I don’t know if he said it for the others to hear but it’s crazy how nasty and disgusting some people are. Someone even said in a loud whisper “then why are you on the flight” and others without masks were walking around beside him to talk to others in other parts of the plane and you can tell he was visibly uncomfortable most of the flight. The flight attendant made sure to continuously check up on him which was nice gesture.

till now, even with my symptoms, I’m more worried if he caught the virus considering how fatal it could be for him and how uncomfortable he was to no avail because of the actions of a few

 

[Stylizer1]

Update:

Since coming back to Canada 5 days ago, I started getting sore throat and fatigue/headache, gonna get tested soon, healthontario scheduled call back but nothing yet.

I had on mask, gloves, and face shield almost entire duration (I took them off when eating on plane, I was starving with 16 hour layover and 12 hour flight but I was extra vigilant and avoided anything that was preopened). I also had health concerns prior so I cant take no chances. Stayed long layover in Montreal, went to hotel there cause missed my connection flight (thanks westjet). I was shocked to see the contrast in protocol in Qatar vs MTL airports. Very few employees at the latter airport had masks or gloves, even the TSA employees more than half didnt bother. What was funny was that they actually kept their distance from me (someone who took all the precautions) vs other passengers who had nooo masks or gloves and they got up close and personal with each other as they patted them down and asked questions, it looked like ridiculous opportunity for spread of corona through that one area. They also were extremely careless in their approach when conducting security checks with health measures in mind vs Qatar and Dubai airports. Toronto was just a tad bit better. Not a single employee in Qatar and Dubai airports did not have mask and gloves.

Qatar Airways was first class treatment, almost everyone had an entire seating row to themselves (I paid big bucks tho so not surprising). Many passengers were careless and were taking off their mask and walking around talking, they had to make few announcements reminding everyone it was against policy to do so; the French Canadien passengers did not seem to care and had to be reminded several times throughout the flight; one lady went on a rant screaming she's a health care worker and knows the risks and tried to undermine the policy, she was in the row infront of me and she was sneezing without covering her mouth and tried talking to the people in the rows around her, I had enough when she kept sneezing with her mouth uncovered and I told her to get up and move or wear a mask which I offered to provide her, she got rattled and asked to move.

Go to any store in Ottawa and almost no one is wearing any PPE. Especially the grocery stores. Everyone has to stay 6 feet apart, walk one way down aisles, plastic shields for cashiers, only a certain number of people allowed in at a time, and yet the most they have on are gloves. It varies from store to store too.

At the end of the day it is up to you how much you want to comply.

 

[Knave]

17K tests again, 391 increase. 18 in all of Eastern Ontario and 16 of them in Ottawa.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

Its loosely related.

Senators Power Hour brings professional fitness instruction to Sens fans

and right after their workout , breakfast and then

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

11:43 a.m. Health Canada has approved the first clinical trials for a COVID-19 vaccine, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced Saturday morning.
During his daily briefing, Trudeau said the trials will take place at the Canadian Centre for Vaccinology at Dalhousie University.
If the trials are successful, the National Research Council of Canada will work with manufacturers so the vaccine can be distributed domestically.
“Research and development take time and must be done right,” he said. “But this is encouraging news.”

Also recently approved a serology test
Health Canada approves first clinical trial for potential COVID-19 vaccine

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Colorado amends coronavirus death count - says fewer have died of COVID-19 than previously reported

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

Sign of things to come for NHL

German Bundesliga returns: What did football's new reality look like?

Bundesliga: 'Bizarre, sterile and eerie' - what it was really like inside one of Germany's 'Ghost Games'

 

[DJB]

 

[thinkwild]

That's really interesting to hear the German soccer experience of spectator free matches eliminating the biggest asset of live games. They also note that some precautions only seemed for show such as all lining up close together for a corner kick but then staying apart to celebrate the goal. They will need to work on this kind of messaging i'd think.

This kind of sterile football is isolated from any outside emotion. Fans do not only scream and cheer throughout the match, but they also react to success and failure. Behind closed doors, the matches feel less consequential despite the outcome of the season still being at stake.

If the players start to feel the games are less consequential, the fans may also. Maybe TV will add in fan tracks like sit-coms do laugh tracks otherwise the downgrade in emotional appeal could lead to a slow erosion of interest in watching, other than the hardcore. Hopefully going through a fan free arena season doesnt lessen fan interest or sharply continue the slow problems in ticket sales to live sports of the last few years when its over.

 

[Micklebot]

Colorado amends coronavirus death count - says fewer have died of COVID-19 than previously reported

Last week there were some articles floating around about the WH not being happy with the way deaths were being attributed, so this isn't surprising.

From the sound of it, there was concerns over some false positives, but the changes they adopted will likely result in false negatives. No method will be perfect, just a matter of which side you'd rather err on when you need the data fast so you can be as agile as pissible when making decisions that can have pretty profound impacts.

There's also aparently some tension because the CDC numbers are slow to update, running a week or so behind.

 

[thinkwild]

Last week there were some articles floating around about the WH not being happy with the way deaths were being attributed, so this isn't surprising.

From the sound of it, there was concerns over some false positives, but the changes they adopted will likely result in false negatives. No method will be perfect, just a matter of which side you'd rather err on when you need the data fast so you can be as agile as pissible when making decisions that can have pretty profound impacts.

There's also aparently some tension because the CDC numbers are slow to update, running a week or so behind.

It does seem a strange campaign these media outlets are on to try and portray the death count as a deep state media exaggeration. I would have thought its more likely understated. But i hope they eventually get it right and im sure some double checks, or just checks of some deaths, can determine cause of death with more certainty. Although we still arent sure at all the causes of death from this coronavirus. Some strokes may be related not incidental.

I also remember watching a show on the shocking lack of qualifications required of some American medical examiners or coroners that determine cause of death. I think maybe it was a John Oliver report. That 800 of 1,100 deaths had Covid but didnt die from it. That number seems hard to believe. Hopefully that is a sound post mortem report.

But of course even if we were to find some adjustments to counts, they will surely go both ways, and the overall effect will probably wash.

Although as the last paragraph in that Fox story says:

Fox 31 obtained a statement from Polis’ office after the death count was reduced that said the governor fully supported efforts by the health department to specify how many deaths were specifically due to COVID-19 “and not just specific to CDC guidelines that include people who died with Coronavirus but not necessarily from it.”

“State epidemiologists believe that once the data is up to date then the number will, unfortunately, be higher,” the statement concluded.

I stand corrected.

 

[Pierre from Orleans]

Last week there were some articles floating around about the WH not being happy with the way deaths were being attributed, so this isn't surprising.

From the sound of it, there was concerns over some false positives, but the changes they adopted will likely result in false negatives. No method will be perfect, just a matter of which side you'd rather err on when you need the data fast so you can be as agile as pissible when making decisions that can have pretty profound impacts.

There's also aparently some tension because the CDC numbers are slow to update, running a week or so behind.

The tension between the white house and the CDC is due to the reliability of data in addition to the delay in getting it

 

[Nac Mac Feegle]

That's really interesting to hear the German soccer experience of spectator free matches eliminating the biggest asset of live games. They also note that some precautions only seemed for show such as all lining up close together for a corner kick but then staying apart to celebrate the goal. They will need to work on this kind of messaging i'd think.



If the players start to feel the games are less consequential, the fans may also. Maybe TV will add in fan tracks like sit-coms do laugh tracks otherwise the downgrade in emotional appeal could lead to a slow erosion of interest in watching, other than the hardcore. Hopefully going through a fan free arena season doesnt lessen fan interest or sharply continue the slow problems in ticket sales to live sports of the last few years when its over.

Kinda sounds like watching some minor hockey matches on tv, when there's a few hundred people in the stands (or worse, Jr A or high school games that are streamed). Without the crowd noise, a lot of excitement is lost. Adding canned audience noise won't help...it'll feel too forced.

It's kinda crazy though....if they don't have most of the details worked out by now, I can't see them being able to pull it off this summer.

 

[Micklebot]

The tension between the white house and the CDC is due to the reliability of data in addition to the delay in getting it

Idk if thats true. The response to the crisis has really split across partisan lines in the states and this particular WH is about as partisan as it gets. They have some non partisan voices to be fair, like Fauci and Birx but neither of them seem to be questioning the accuracy of deaths that have been catagorized as a result of Covid, at least not in the fashion that the politicians and political appointments have, if anything they have suggested the opposite, that in time we will see that we missed some.

It's been said before, the least politicized way to get a feel for the impact is excess deaths, they may not give you a precise count but they remove the potential for fudging how the numbers are counted, and they don't typically paint a pretty picture (not that the original or revised ones do either).

 

[Knave]

While it hasn't been a smooth decline like say New York - our peak ventilator usage was 38 days ago. Our peak ICU use was 39 days ago.

I would imagine based on trends in another week or two we'll have lowest usage since the website started tracking.

What is nice is as hospital usage went way up (that peak was 13 days ago)... the other two trended down which hopefully indicates people are being released and we're not cycling through people from hospital bed to ICU to ICU & ventilator to death.

 

[Sens of Anarchy]

While it hasn't been a smooth decline like say New York - our peak ventilator usage was 38 days ago. Our peak ICU use was 39 days ago.

I would imagine based on trends in another week or two we'll have lowest usage since the website started tracking.

What is nice is as hospital usage went way up (that peak was 13 days ago)... the other two trended down which hopefully indicates people are being released and we're not cycling through people from hospital bed to ICU to ICU & ventilator to death.

I look forward to the Daxi report here.

 

[maclean]

That's really interesting to hear the German soccer experience of spectator free matches eliminating the biggest asset of live games. They also note that some precautions only seemed for show such as all lining up close together for a corner kick but then staying apart to celebrate the goal. They will need to work on this kind of messaging i'd think.



If the players start to feel the games are less consequential, the fans may also. Maybe TV will add in fan tracks like sit-coms do laugh tracks otherwise the downgrade in emotional appeal could lead to a slow erosion of interest in watching, other than the hardcore. Hopefully going through a fan free arena season doesnt lessen fan interest or sharply continue the slow problems in ticket sales to live sports of the last few years when its over.

Imagine there was some kind of way people's cheering from home in front of their televisions could be transported and aggregated at the stadium, say through some kind of app. It doesn't seem entiiirely impossible, though it would probably suck for fans' families and neighbours

 

[AchtzehnBaby]

 

[Larionov]

With only two host cities, it's also an easier path to eventually getting some fans back in the stands, and some added revenue as a result. Let's be clear - there are no pro sports leagues happy about doing the "no fans" thing, and they'll be looking to flip that just as soon as they possibly can. Nevada, Florida and Arizona are three of the most likely places to be able to do that. If they had to play tomorrow, not a chance they are allowed to have fans. A month or two from now? Who knows.

FWIW, Italy and Spain, two of the hardest hit countries, are now making plans to be fully re-open by the end of June, just in time to salvage something of a summer tourism season. That gives you a hint at what is likely to be coming in North America...

 

[Stylizer1]

With only two host cities, it's also an easier path to eventually getting some fans back in the stands, and some added revenue as a result. Let's be clear - there are no pro sports leagues happy about doing the "no fans" thing, and they'll be looking to flip that just as soon as they possibly can. Nevada, Florida and Arizona are three of the most likely places to be able to do that. If they had to play tomorrow, not a chance they are allowed to have fans. A month or two from now? Who knows.

FWIW, Italy and Spain, two of the hardest hit countries, are now making plans to be fully re-open by the end of June, just in time to salvage something of a summer tourism season. That gives you a hint at what is likely to be coming in North America...

It's going to b a logistics nightmare. How early will fans have to show up in order to get it? Lineups for the bathroom will be 3 times as long, concessions will be pretty bad. I think most will not be interested if they have to do anything remotely as close to what is happening at stores like Home Depot.