Erik Karlsson (Part 7)

[Cas]

The eye test backed up by advanced statistics (see: NHL Team Stats) say this team is significantly better than the team of the past few seasons and it's not only Karlsson. We are far, far more watchable this year than we have been in a long time.

We are actually 10th in the league in xgf and are in fact getting bottom-scraping goaltending, particularly from Kahkonen. We certainly could improve on defense but adding 3 offensively talented youngsters would have a huge impact on this roster, even without this coming year's draft pick. TBH I'm scared once the Cuda season is over the kids will come up and the team will go on a streak, damaging our draft position.

I do think our xG is being buoyed by empty calorie producers who can't finish - the difference for a lot of guys between their xG/60 and actual G/60, for example. The top four players on the team are Meier, Eyssimont, Gadjovich, and Gregor - three of them are not known for being good finishers (and that's putting it kindly). Playmakers are rare, too, so we may be undershooting our xG by creating chances that grade out better in the model than they actually are because we lack the puck movement and deception that better teams utilize to create the same chances.

Honestly, I think we're getting points because we're lucking into loser points, and I don't think that's sustainable.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

The eye test backed up by advanced statistics (see: NHL Team Stats) say this team is significantly better than the team of the past few seasons and it's not only Karlsson. We are far, far more watchable this year than we have been in a long time.

We are actually 10th in the league in xgf and are in fact getting bottom-scraping goaltending, particularly from Kahkonen. We certainly could improve on defense but adding 3 offensively talented youngsters would have a huge impact on this roster, even without this coming year's draft pick. TBH I'm scared once the Cuda season is over the kids will come up and the team will go on a streak, damaging our draft position.

The Sharks are a good offensive team because of Karlsson and Meier predominantly. Both of them could be gone in a couple weeks or before next season. They get bad goaltending because they play bad defense. It goes hand in hand. Adding offensive forwards will assist the offense which they do need but it's not going to change that their blue line is still trash and they don't have good goaltending. They also don't get good defense from their forwards either which those kids certainly aren't changing and we have no real blue line prospects knocking at the door to replace the largely replacement level or worse blue line players we currently ice.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

Gents, hope you dont mind me joining the EK carnival…Is there a generally understood ask for EK at this point?
Trying to determine what you’d be looking for in an Ottawa-SJ deal with 3.5 retained?

Does this fit the bill for the parameters of a deal?

1. 2023 top 3 protected (looking like 8-12 range) or an unprotected 1st 2024
2. Thomson or JBD
3. Joseph
4. 2nd 2024
5. Zaitsev (1 year dump)

Retaining 30% for four years of EK and taking on 3 more years of Joseph at 2.95m seems like a big ask. I like JBD as a decent 4-6 Dman, but a 1st and a 2nd doesn't seem enough here, especially as Zaitsev has negative value.

 

[stator]

1. Why on earth would the Sens trade to get EK back?

2. Why on earth would the Sharks agree to receiving a protected draft pick on EK when retaining salary?

3. And why on earth does every fan from other teams think the Sharks need to always retain?

 

[STL Shark]

The eye test backed up by advanced statistics (see: NHL Team Stats) say this team is significantly better than the team of the past few seasons and it's not only Karlsson. We are far, far more watchable this year than we have been in a long time.

We are actually 10th in the league in xgf and are in fact getting bottom-scraping goaltending, particularly from Kahkonen. We certainly could improve on defense but adding 3 offensively talented youngsters would have a huge impact on this roster, even without this coming year's draft pick. TBH I'm scared once the Cuda season is over the kids will come up and the team will go on a streak, damaging our draft position.

Yet still bottom 5 in the league and nowhere remotely close to contention. Karlsson is having the best statistical season of his career and is likely to never reach that again. Even if he does, it's impossible to assemble the rest of the needed pieces to make this team a contender over the next 2 years while there's still an inkling of prime Erik Karlsson left.

All your argument says is that you'd prefer to have an 11.5 million great player on a bad team to make you feel better rather than accumulate assets that have a chance at turning us into a Cup contender in 4 years. There isn't an objective reason to not trade Karlsson either this TDL or summer (whichever timeframe a serviceable deal comes along).

 

[STL Shark]

1. Why on earth would the Sens trade to get EK back?

2. Why on earth would the Sharks agree to receiving a protected draft pick on EK when retaining salary?

3. And why on earth does every fan from other teams think the Sharks need to always retain?

1) New ownership group sells a lot of tickets bringing back the best player in franchise history (sorry Alfy, Karlsson is better than you). His wife is from Ottawa and they need a top end RHD in a bad way.

2) Teams have learned from the Sharks and Senators mistakes on not lotto protecting 1st rounders (Duchene trade and Karlsson trade).

3) Flat cap means the only way that these moves are getting facilitated is with retention and taking back money. Pretty simple math equation.

 

[karltonian]

All your argument says is that you'd prefer to have an 11.5 million great player on a bad team to make you feel better rather than accumulate assets that have a chance at turning us into a Cup contender in 4 years. There isn't an objective reason to not trade Karlsson either this TDL or summer (whichever timeframe a serviceable deal comes along).

If we give up all our decent talent we will not be anywhere near a Cup contender in 4 years and it's unclear we will even be on track to be a playoff team in 4 years. Yeah, I am a fan of this team and have no desire to see them become a blank slate that could just as easily become Arizona as anyone else. Taking it down to the studs is not a good path because it's not like we have a promising front office or coaching staff either.

Nothing about the grier era so far says anything more than he might be better at producing depth lines than the previous regime -- which actually was something that we needed then. Trading away all our studs, however, will mean we need to bring in legit valuable stars and there is every disadvantage to this front office in being able to do that.

The fact that we are bottom 5 in the standings and playing better than that is GOOD, that's how you get a higher pick than you arguably deserve. That's how we got Couture, for example.

 

[Pinkfloyd]

If we give up all our decent talent we will not be anywhere near a Cup contender in 4 years and it's unclear we will even be on track to be a playoff team in 4 years. Yeah, I am a fan of this team and have no desire to see them become a blank slate that could just as easily become Arizona as anyone else. Taking it down to the studs is not a good path because it's not like we have a promising front office or coaching staff either.

Nothing about the grier era so far says anything more than he might be better at producing depth lines than the previous regime -- which actually was something that we needed then. Trading away all our studs, however, will mean we need to bring in legit valuable stars and there is every disadvantage to this front office in being able to do that.

The fact that we are bottom 5 in the standings and playing better than that is GOOD, that's how you get a higher pick than you arguably deserve. That's how we got Couture, for example.

How is what you’re talking about an example of Couture? We didn’t get Couture because we sucked one year. We got Couture because we flat out robbed Toronto for a 1st round pick and traded up to get him.

 

[karltonian]

How is what you’re talking about an example of Couture? We didn’t get Couture because we sucked one year. We got Couture because we flat out robbed Toronto for a 1st round pick and traded up to get him.

Correction, it's how we got Meier.

 

[Le Rosbeef]

I feel pretty sure in my head that EK will stay until the Summer based on all the noise around the cap economics being too challenging. Let's hope he wins the Norris in the meantime, I guess...

Something that sat in my head though, as we only seem to hear about the Oilers. Is there any scope for a trade to the New York Islanders?

I had a look and if, say, Josh Bailey came back to facilitate nearly half the cap of the deal ($5m per, the remainder of this year and then just 2023-24 to UFA)? Isles fans seem up in arms he's getting played high up the line up and you'd have to think EK could add something very valuable for them?

Too wild perhaps?

 

[Grinner]

Report: EK65 open to waiving no-movement clause for Oilers

Erik Karlsson has a full no-movement clause, but he reportedly would waive it to play with Connor McDavid and Co.

www.nbcsports.com

 

[Levie]

Report: EK65 open to waiving no-movement clause for Oilers

Erik Karlsson has a full no-movement clause, but he reportedly would waive it to play with Connor McDavid and Co.

www.nbcsports.com

ok make it happen Grier.

 

[OrrNumber4]

Did the Sharks actually ask him? Or is this speculation or was it prompted by a reporter?

Because if the Sharks asked, then a deal is on the table.

 

[Oilers in NS]

ok make it happen Grier.

we are waiting as well but one has to be a wall street trader to figure out how this money will balance out

 

[STL Shark]

we are waiting as well but one has to be a wall street trader to figure out how this money will balance out

Think that excuse is vastly overrated. Anyone with an internet connection and CapFriendly pulled up can workout the finances. It is the asset cost of the finances that is the hold up.

 

[Oilers in NS]

Think that excuse is vastly overrated. Anyone with an internet connection and CapFriendly pulled up can workout the finances. It is the asset cost of the finances that is the hold up.

Gonna have to be another team involved to take on salary if we r involved. Trades r so elaborate now.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

Oiler fan here just want to know the value of a few things from you guys directly.

1) What is the value of Karlsson without any retention at all (also keep his mind his age and injury history).
2) Would it be ok to sent Barrie/Puljujaarvi back? Or are they considered dumps? (We value them together as a 2nd + 4th).
3) Young former 1st round Dmen Bouchard+Broberg are considered a 1sts to us as well, would you want either of them?

It cost us a 2nd to get rid of Kassian for 2 years ($3.2m AAV).

4) Would you guys take 2x 2nds to eat $3million for the duration of Karlssons contract?
5) How much retention would another 1st eat? $1million from all 4 years?

 

[Grinner]

Oiler fan here just want to know the value of a few things from you guys directly.

1) What is the value of Karlsson without any retention at all (also keep his mind his age and injury history).
2) Would it be ok to sent Barrie/Puljujaarvi back? Or are they considered dumps? (We value them together as a 2nd + 4th).
3)

It cost us a 2nd to get rid of Kassian for 2 years ($3.2m AAV).

4) Would you guys take 2x 2nds to eat $3million for the duration of Karlssons contract?
5) How much retention would another 1st eat? $1million from all 4 years?

Yes please. Broberg for me

 

[STL Shark]

Oiler fan here just want to know the value of a few things from you guys directly.

1) What is the value of Karlsson without any retention at all (also keep his mind his age and injury history).
2) Would it be ok to sent Barrie/Puljujaarvi back? Or are they considered dumps? (We value them together as a 2nd + 4th).
3) Young former 1st round Dmen Bouchard+Broberg are considered a 1sts to us as well, would you want either of them?

It cost us a 2nd to get rid of Kassian for 2 years ($3.2m AAV).

4) Would you guys take 2x 2nds to eat $3million for the duration of Karlssons contract?
5) How much retention would another 1st eat? $1million from all 4 years?

I don't think #1 has a reasonable price either way as it just won't happen.

Barrie has value in terms of being able to flip him elsewhere, but JP at $3M is sort of worthless imo. He's a non-QO guy at that price tag and then from his standpoint there is no reason to sign in SJ versus somewhere else on a prove it deal as a UFA this summer. Given Edmonton can get out of the contract next year regardless, I'd imagine Yamamoto would be included in place of JP.

On the young D-Men, I would say that probably has about a 1st round value for sure. Karlsson's retention for 4 years would be a 2024 or 2025 1st rounder most likely. So then it becomes what is 4.5 years of EK65 at $8.5M worth as a player.

I'd say a deal like this is what makes sense to me:
Karlsson ($8.5M - $3M retained)
Barabanov ($2.5M) - Middle 6 forward replacement
Harrington ($750k) - Depth D-Man
Nutivaara (LTIR contract balancing)
Total NHL Dollars Out - $11.75M

Barrie ($4.5)
Yamamoto ($3.1)
Foegele ($2.75)
Broberg ($863k)
2023 1st
2024 2nd
2025 1st
Total NHL Dollars Out - $11.21M

 

[Perfect_Drug]

*****

I don't think #1 has a reasonable price either way as it just won't happen.

Barrie has value in terms of being able to flip him elsewhere, but JP at $3M is sort of worthless imo. He's a non-QO guy at that price tag and then from his standpoint there is no reason to sign in SJ versus somewhere else on a prove it deal as a UFA this summer. Given Edmonton can get out of the contract next year regardless, I'd imagine Yamamoto would be included in place of JP.

On the young D-Men, I would say that probably has about a 1st round value for sure. Karlsson's retention for 4 years would be a 2024 or 2025 1st rounder most likely. So then it becomes what is 4.5 years of EK65 at $8.5M worth as a player.

I'd say a deal like this is what makes sense to me:
Karlsson ($8.5M - $3M retained)
Barabanov ($2.5M) - Middle 6 forward replacement
Harrington ($750k) - Depth D-Man
Nutivaara (LTIR contract balancing)
Total NHL Dollars Out - $11.75M

Barrie ($4.5)
Yamamoto ($3.1)
Foegele ($2.75)
Broberg ($863k)
2023 1st
2024 2nd
2025 1st
Total NHL Dollars Out - $11.21M

If this is the cost, and Karlsson agreed to waive his NMC, I really wonder what the holdup actually is. All seems very reasonable.

Seemed silly for us to waste more of McDavid's prime, and it's literally been 17 years since the last Norris trophy winner was made available to us, and Karlsson might regress a bit next year and not be worth nearly as much as a trading chip to you as he is now.


Frustrating this doesn't seem to be happening anymore.

 

[STL Shark]

*****

If this is the cost, and Karlsson agreed to waive his NMC, I really wonder what the holdup actually is. All seems very reasonable.

Seemed silly for us to waste more of McDavid's prime, and it's literally been 17 years since the last Norris trophy winner was made available to us, and Karlsson might regress a bit next year and not be worth nearly as much as a trading chip to you as he is now.


Frustrating this doesn't seem to be happening anymore.

Preaching to the choir on all accounts haha. Given Holland's propensity to wait things out and try to break an opposing GM in negotiations (or at least that was his rep in Detroit), I think this is just a situation where both Holland and Grier are waiting it out until the end. Given nobody in the Western conference has made a single move yet to improve their team, Holland probably isn't as under the gun as the GMs in the East feel like with the barrage of moves that have been made by NYR, TOR, and BOS (with Carolina and NJD both also poised to make big moves).

 

[Pinkfloyd]

Preaching to the choir on all accounts haha. Given Holland's propensity to wait things out and try to break an opposing GM in negotiations (or at least that was his rep in Detroit), I think this is just a situation where both Holland and Grier are waiting it out until the end. Given nobody in the Western conference has made a single move yet to improve their team, Holland probably isn't as under the gun as the GMs in the East feel like with the barrage of moves that have been made by NYR, TOR, and BOS (with Carolina and NJD both also poised to make big moves).

Between a rep reportedly saying they didn't want to pull the trigger on a Timo trade during Marleau week, I would think that would also apply to EK65 but both sides have an incentive to wait until the deadline to get a deal done with the cap so maybe they'll circle back.

 

[WTFetus]

Marleau screwing this team even after retirement.

 

[STL Shark]

Between a rep reportedly saying they didn't want to pull the trigger on a Timo trade during Marleau week, I would think that would also apply to EK65 but both sides have an incentive to wait until the deadline to get a deal done with the cap so maybe they'll circle back.

Think that Marleau week stuff is mostly conjecture. Started as a Twitter rumor from a fake account and then somehow found its way into a speculative "someone I know said this may be valid or may not be" from Friedman. Just like people speculated that Chychrun to LAK was held up a night because of the Dustin Brown ceremony and yet a deal still hasn't happened.

If we're not making deals because of some silly ceremony for Marleau, then fire literally the entire organization. Given I think based on the above it is mostly made up stuff by talking heads trying to cover their tracks for saying that the Meier trade would happen well ahead of the deadline 2 weeks ago, we should hopefully not have to go down that path.

 

[Grinner]

Trade him to the Oilers for a 1st, one of the B's and Petrov
Retention and or parts back to help make it work