Speculation: Erik Karlsson - Part 2

[Stormbreaker]

I don't trust his health think we're better off not signing him.

 

[Todd1a]

I already did the math earlier this season. We need to shed Callahan and Miller/Gourde but then they'll be plenty of money to sign both EK and Point.

The one guy that not enough people are talking about, who absolutely must be signed before Karlsson, is Vasy. If Vasy isn't sitting at the same table signing next to Karlsson than there is way too much risk, we have nobody else in the same stratosphere as a possible fill in for Vasy, and we have no way to shed salary if his #'s are too far away from what we can afford.

There is also that little problem with Seattle. If we sign Karlsson, than even if we go 4-4 we will have to expose Sergachev or Cernak. I guess we are already in a pinch because we have to expose Foote. Perhaps with enough assets Seattle could be convinced to take Killorn/Palat/TJ instead, but that's another very large risk.

This is why a month or so ago, I said a darkhorse to be traded this offseason is Sergachev. Masin fits the 5-6 role much better than Sergachev and he'll cost significantly less to retain. It also doesn't hurt as much to expose him in the expansion draft. That's not to say that I don't love Sergachev and hope we can keep him somehow, but if we get a similar young player or value back it makes sense.

This is why I don’t think karlsson is coming here sure we can make it work for a year but after that it messes with the cap badly

 

[Rschmitz]

This is why I don’t think karlsson is coming here sure we can make it work for a year but after that it messes with the cap badly

Karlsson is worth the effort it will take to figure out how to make it work, especially if he is the one coming to us. The good news is that all of next years RFA's can be signed July 1st, if you start eliminating some of the cost uncertainty by signing one or two guys early than it becomes a lot less risky to give out a contract that you can't get out of. As shitty as it would be to deal a Sergachev or a Joseph instead of keeping them with a bridge deal, we really just need enough wiggle room to get to where our complimentary wingers no longer can invoke their NTC's.

 

[Todd1a]

Karlsson is worth the effort it will take to figure out how to make it work, especially if he is the one coming to us. The good news is that all of next years RFA's can be signed July 1st, if you start eliminating some of the cost uncertainty by signing one or two guys early than it becomes a lot less risky to give out a contract that you can't get out of. As ****ty as it would be to deal a Sergachev or a Joseph instead of keeping them with a bridge deal, we really just need enough wiggle room to get to where our complimentary wingers no longer can invoke their NTC's.

Ya but the only one next year that does not have a Ntc that can move is killorn. I’d probably trade gourde over Miller now because Miller has a limited Ntc next year. After July 1st gourde has a Ntc for like 4 years that kicks in. We never sign RFa,s early see point now we could have got that done last summer but didn’t.

 

[DFC]

Karlsson is worth the effort it will take to figure out how to make it work, especially if he is the one coming to us. The good news is that all of next years RFA's can be signed July 1st, if you start eliminating some of the cost uncertainty by signing one or two guys early than it becomes a lot less risky to give out a contract that you can't get out of. As ****ty as it would be to deal a Sergachev or a Joseph instead of keeping them with a bridge deal, we really just need enough wiggle room to get to where our complimentary wingers no longer can invoke their NTC's.

Agreed, but I'd also add that things change so much year to year that it's hard to say which players we'll want to keep and which we'll want to ship out 12 months from now.

I think we can get Vasy under contract, regardless, and he's the only one I'm overly worried about. I like the idea of a sign-and-trade prior to July 1, with us sending some cap SJ's way at a discount.

 

[The Gongshow]

Issues seem to be

- Point signing (Does he take a bridge?)
- Have to actually trade Cally + one of Miller or Gourde (Easier said than done?)
- Having enough cap to sign Vasi next year (This is huge, Vasi, just like Point and Kuch is a MUUUUUSSSTTT)
- Seattle Expansion Draft... (Do we keep Serg so Seattle takes him and protect Cernak, since Hedman, McD and Karlsson will be protected. Will Foote be eligible if he's still not up by then or is that waiting to long to bring Foote to the big leagues?)

 

[Rschmitz]

Agreed, but I'd also add that things change so much year to year that it's hard to say which players we'll want to keep and which we'll want to ship out 12 months from now.

I think we can get Vasy under contract, regardless, and he's the only one I'm overly worried about. I like the idea of a sign-and-trade prior to July 1, with us sending some cap SJ's way at a discount.

True but as long as we can trade them later I would sign them now. Highly unlikely these cost controlled young players erode their value to the point that they aren't tradable, JBB gets some cost certainty and maintains flexibility.

 

[Felonious Python]

Issues seem to be

- Point signing (Does he take a bridge?)
- Have to actually trade Cally + one of Miller or Gourde (Easier said than done?)
- Having enough cap to sign Vasi next year (This is huge, Vasi, just like Point and Kuch is a MUUUUUSSSTTT)
- Seattle Expansion Draft... (Do we keep Serg so Seattle takes him and protect Cernak, since Hedman, McD and Karlsson will be protected. Will Foote be eligible if he's still not up by then or is that waiting to long to bring Foote to the big leagues?)

The way the expansion is going to work is that TB can protect 7F/3D/1G or 8 skaters & 1G. (TB also needs to expose a d-man and forward who have enough games played as well, but that's years away)

In 8+1, Kuch, Stammer, and Point will be protected, so only one spot would be left for Sergachev, Foote, Palat, Miller, Cirelli, Paquette, Joseph, etc. Whoever is on the team in two years.

 

[The Gongshow]

The way the expansion is going to work is that TB can protect 7F/3D/1G or 8 skaters & 1G. (TB also needs to expose a d-man and forward who have enough games played as well, but that's years away)

In 8+1, Kuch, Stammer, and Point will be protected, so only one spot would be left for Sergachev, Foote, Palat, Miller, Cirelli, Paquette, Joseph, etc. Whoever is on the team in two years.

Tough call between Cirelli and Foote. But hopefully by then Foote wouldn't qualify due to lack to enough games played.
But as long as we don't lose Cernak in the expansion draft as well I'm fine with loosing most of those players

 

[Rschmitz]

Tough call between Cirelli and Foote. But hopefully by then Foote wouldn't qualify due to lack to enough games played.
But as long as we don't lose Cernak in the expansion draft as well I'm fine with loosing most of those players

Unfortunately unless Foote is hurt he will qualify

 

[The Gongshow]

Unfortunately unless Foote is hurt he will qualify

I suppose we'll have to give Seattle some draft picks to keep him them. Ala Vegas taking Garrison off our hands

 

[DFC]

True but as long as we can trade them later I would sign them now. Highly unlikely these cost controlled young players erode their value to the point that they aren't tradable, JBB gets some cost certainty and maintains flexibility.

Oh yeah, I wasn't talking about that so much as, when we're talking about how to make room for Vasy next year, we really don't know just yet what the situation is going to be. Maybe Palat has a career year and suddenly we can't imagine moving him. Maybe Gourde hits on somebody's wife (...most likely candidate for such an act; or maybe Paquette). Maybe Paquette's big year was just a contract year and he comes back down to earth next season. So I'm with you. I'm just saying we have to make this year's decisions for this year, and not plan too much about the 2020 training camp roster just yet, when thinking about contracts. Aside from a couple of guys, our player values have been pretty volatile over the past few years.

 

[Rschmitz]

Oh yeah, I wasn't talking about that so much as, when we're talking about how to make room for Vasy next year, we really don't know just yet what the situation is going to be. Maybe Palat has a career year and suddenly we can't imagine moving him. Maybe Gourde hits on somebody's wife (...most likely candidate for such an act; or maybe Paquette). Maybe Paquette's big year was just a contract year and he comes back down to earth next season. So I'm with you. I'm just saying we have to make this year's decisions for this year, and not plan too much about the 2020 training camp roster just yet, when thinking about contracts. Aside from a couple of guys, our player values have been pretty volatile over the past few years.

I see what you're saying now, I agree. Sometimes I think folks here are a bit too conservative, a ton can change in one year.

 

[Todd1a]

Issues seem to be

- Point signing (Does he take a bridge?)
- Have to actually trade Cally + one of Miller or Gourde (Easier said than done?)
- Having enough cap to sign Vasi next year (This is huge, Vasi, just like Point and Kuch is a MUUUUUSSSTTT)
- Seattle Expansion Draft... (Do we keep Serg so Seattle takes him and protect Cernak, since Hedman, McD and Karlsson will be protected. Will Foote be eligible if he's still not up by then or is that waiting to long to bring Foote to the big leagues?)

We are better off letting Seattle pick a player off our team then giving up a 2nd a 4th and gusev like last time . These gm’s Got stupid last time now Vegas is in cap he’ll lol and I would not help them one bit now

 

[HoseEmDown]

There's no reason to trade Sergachev this year even if we sign Karlsson. We need him and his cheap ELC next year. Then we trade him for a forward from the 17, 18 or 19 draft that is expansion exempt or a 20 1st +. Foote will be expansion eligible as last year was his first pro season so unless he misses the whole year injured he will be eligible.

As for Vasilevskiy with Killorn becoming a limited NTC next year his money will go to Vasilevskiy. As for this year trade Callahan and Gourde which gets you Point and Karlsson. Miller and Killorn gets Vasilevskiy, Cirelli, Cernak and Joseph. The following year it's Palat and hopefully Johnson in the expansion draft. Our cap situation isn't as bad if we can find the proper trades the next 3 years and sign guys to reasonable deals. We will find out how good Brisebois really is.

 

[Todd1a]

There's no reason to trade Sergachev this year even if we sign Karlsson. We need him and his cheap ELC next year. Then we trade him for a forward from the 17, 18 or 19 draft that is expansion exempt or a 20 1st +. Foote will be expansion eligible as last year was his first pro season so unless he misses the whole year injured he will be eligible.

As for Vasilevskiy with Killorn becoming a limited NTC next year his money will go to Vasilevskiy. As for this year trade Callahan and Gourde which gets you Point and Karlsson. Miller and Killorn gets Vasilevskiy, Cirelli, Cernak and Joseph. The following year it's Palat and hopefully Johnson in the expansion draft. Our cap situation isn't as bad if we can find the proper trades the next 3 years and sign guys to reasonable deals. We will find out how good Brisebois really is.

I think you would regret trading sergachev he is killing it at worlds. But I’m not buying that karlsson is coming I don’t think he is.

 

[HoseEmDown]

I think you would regret trading sergachev he is killing it at worlds. But I’m not buying that karlsson is coming I don’t think he is.

Of course he is, playing on big ice fits his style of play so much better than the NHL. He also is being used in a role that he doesn't get in Tampa and won't with Hedman here and definitely won't with Karlsson too. Also if we did sign Karlsson with Hedman, McDonagh and Cernak he would be a luxury as a 5th defender.

 

[DFC]

There's no reason to trade Sergachev this year even if we sign Karlsson. We need him and his cheap ELC next year. Then we trade him for a forward from the 17, 18 or 19 draft that is expansion exempt or a 20 1st +. Foote will be expansion eligible as last year was his first pro season so unless he misses the whole year injured he will be eligible.

As for Vasilevskiy with Killorn becoming a limited NTC next year his money will go to Vasilevskiy. As for this year trade Callahan and Gourde which gets you Point and Karlsson. Miller and Killorn gets Vasilevskiy, Cirelli, Cernak and Joseph. The following year it's Palat and hopefully Johnson in the expansion draft. Our cap situation isn't as bad if we can find the proper trades the next 3 years and sign guys to reasonable deals. We will find out how good Brisebois really is.

100%.

If we end up having to trade Sergachev, we do it then, but not now, when an ELC defenseman is just what the doctor ordered.

IF we somehow land Karlsson, and it still feels like a pipedream, but if, then we would have a bit of a revolving door for the #6 spot, but the other 5 are set in stone:

Hedman - Karlsson
McDonagh - Cernak
Sergachev - Rutta/Foote/Cheap UFA

It would make a very nice environment to break Foote in, really, though we'd probably have to set him up with a babysitter for a while.

 

[Todd1a]

Of course he is, playing on big ice fits his style of play so much better than the NHL. He also is being used in a role that he doesn't get in Tampa and won't with Hedman here and definitely won't with Karlsson too. Also if we did sign Karlsson with Hedman, McDonagh and Cernak he would be a luxury as a 5th defender.

Good news is we won’t need to worry about it Karlsson is not signing here. It’s already been linked his wife wants to be close to Ottawa.

 

[HoseEmDown]

Good news is we won’t need to worry about it Karlsson is not signing here. It’s already been linked his wife wants to be close to Ottawa.

Unless he's resigning in Ottawa wherever he goes he will have to be flying back and forth. Sure Tampa is longer than New York but he'll have more than enough money for a private jet to make the trip comfortable. He can also talk to Yzerman about living in one city and having your family in another, he did it for many years.

 

[Felonious Python]

Unless he's resigning in Ottawa wherever he goes he will have to be flying back and forth. Sure Tampa is longer than New York but he'll have more than enough money for a private jet to make the trip comfortable. He can also talk to Yzerman about living in one city and having your family in another, he did it for many years.

On second thought, maybe not.

 

[DFC]

Good news is we won’t need to worry about it Karlsson is not signing here. It’s already been linked his wife wants to be close to Ottawa.

And it's also come out that Karlsson wants to play with Hedman. It'll be tough to make it happen because of our cap situation, but it seems like Karlsson wants it. And that makes things a little less difficult. Meh. We need a shakeup anyway.

 

[VinikToWinIt]

And it's also come out that Karlsson wants to play with Hedman. It'll be tough to make it happen because of our cap situation, but it seems like Karlsson wants it. And that makes things a little less difficult. Meh. We need a shakeup anyway.

Yep. I’m sort of on board with tweaking the core a bit at this point.

 

[LTIR Trickery]

This is why I don’t think karlsson is coming here sure we can make it work for a year but after that it messes with the cap badly

Depends how you look at it - if they make the numbers work and lock up 65 for a few seasons, we have a very VERY good defense that is cost controlled for a number of years. I don't mean cost controlled in the sense that they're all on ELCs, but cost controlled in that you've got at least 2/3 of them locked up in less than market value for the foreseeable future.

You have way more forward slots to f*** around and throw at cheap kids or one-off, one year contracts to vets than you do defenders.

 

[Rschmitz]

There's no reason to trade Sergachev this year even if we sign Karlsson. We need him and his cheap ELC next year. Then we trade him for a forward from the 17, 18 or 19 draft that is expansion exempt or a 20 1st +. Foote will be expansion eligible as last year was his first pro season so unless he misses the whole year injured he will be eligible.

As for Vasilevskiy with Killorn becoming a limited NTC next year his money will go to Vasilevskiy. As for this year trade Callahan and Gourde which gets you Point and Karlsson. Miller and Killorn gets Vasilevskiy, Cirelli, Cernak and Joseph. The following year it's Palat and hopefully Johnson in the expansion draft. Our cap situation isn't as bad if we can find the proper trades the next 3 years and sign guys to reasonable deals. We will find out how good Brisebois really is.

I don't know how wise that is, 30 other teams will be trying to do the same thing we are next off season. JBB can get ahead of that now and get fair value for Sergachev, achieve a net positive on the roster, and pay a similar amount through using a guy like Masin in a calibrated role he is much more qualified to fill.

Agreed with everything else.