Speculation: Erik Karlsson - Part 2

[Felonious Python]

I dont think that's quite right. I think he needs to be on the teams reserve list as of the TDL to sign for 8.

Sign and trade is plausible though.

I'm more about the nitty-gritty of minor league contracts, so TDL seems reasonable. I was thinking that you can technically trade anyone at any point (they just can't play in the playoffs), so that interpretation seems reasonable as well.

Sign-and-trade wouldn't happen with Karlsson, who could just be a UFA. It'd be feasible if he were an RFA.

I suppose a negotiation window deal could happen where SJ agrees to sign Karlsson and flip him to TB for assets, but that's sort of a sketchy collusion/tampering adjacent area.

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

Karlsson can get 8-years as long as he doesn't hit free agency, so TB could trade for his rights before July 1 and sign him for 8-years.

I wonder if that conditional 1st preventing San Jose from trading Erik Karlsson to the East is still in play. The only language I could find was that a trade couldn't occur "this season", but it's not clear what that means.

I'd assume a sign and trade after July 1st would be in play.

 

[These Are The Days]

Sign and trade is tempting but is it worth giving an asset to acquire his negotiating rights? I guess at worst it could give us an excuse to send some form of salary the other way. Either way shedding salary is the starting point if we are gonna make a serious run at him

 

[These Are The Days]

I'm more about the nitty-gritty of minor league contracts, so TDL seems reasonable. I was thinking that you can technically trade anyone at any point (they just can't play in the playoffs), so that interpretation seems reasonable as well.

Sign-and-trade wouldn't happen with Karlsson, who could just be a UFA. It'd be feasible if he were an RFA.

I suppose a negotiation window deal could happen where SJ agrees to sign Karlsson and flip him to TB for assets, but that's sort of a sketchy collusion/tampering adjacent area.

Hahahahahaha!!! I forgot about that. Holy shit the lengths Ottawa went to

 

[Zerotonine]

If Karlsson comes in and makes less than Hedman, We better prepare for the impending **** storm from the Main Boards.

Again it will come back to the tax break tampa(florida) has. Paying Carlson 8 mill a year is like getting paid 11 mill a year at most other teams.

That's why fans get frustrated. It's a clear advantage for Tampa to build a roster when they are able to sign players for near 30 percent less then market value and yet the contract is comparable. And I'm sure the beach doesnt hurt

Speaking of that. Is anyone with knowledge able to do team by team comparisons of what every players take home salary would be with each team on a set salary per year?

Say nice round number of 10 mill per season

 

[Felonious Python]

I wonder if that conditional 1st preventing San Jose from trading Erik Karlsson to the East is still in play. The only language I could find was that a trade couldn't occur "this season", but it's not clear what that means.

I'd assume a sign and trade after July 1st would be in play.

Cap Friendly is saying it isn't.

 

[The Macho King]

I wonder if that conditional 1st preventing San Jose from trading Erik Karlsson to the East is still in play. The only language I could find was that a trade couldn't occur "this season", but it's not clear what that means.

I'd assume a sign and trade after July 1st would be in play.

Oh shit I forgot about that.

Yeah hes not being traded. Or apparently it isnt?

 

[DFC]

I'm more about the nitty-gritty of minor league contracts, so TDL seems reasonable. I was thinking that you can technically trade anyone at any point (they just can't play in the playoffs), so that interpretation seems reasonable as well.

Sign-and-trade wouldn't happen with Karlsson, who could just be a UFA. It'd be feasible if he were an RFA.

I suppose a negotiation window deal could happen where SJ agrees to sign Karlsson and flip him to TB for assets, but that's sort of a sketchy collusion/tampering adjacent area.

It could happen if Karlsson wants to play for us, but also wants the 8th year. And I mean, in order to make it happen, we're going to have to clear cap-space anyway. And San Jose might be a place Tyler Johnson waives for, so we could potentially have a lot of trade options to make it happen.

The 8th year also helps us bring the annual cap hit down. So if, hypothetically, we have Johnson's 5m moving out, and we move Karlsson in for something around 9, we've really only added 4m to the cap. We still have to clear a lot of space for other players, but adding Karlsson gets a lot easier if we move salary at the same time.

I don't think it's collusion. At least not once the UFA window opens--at that point it's the same as any other sign and trade. Both teams and the player have to agree. Karlsson will want 8 years, and we can give that to him (by way of SJ) for a reduced aav, while SJ actually gets a reasonable player in return because we need to dump salary. Everybody wins.

 

[TeslaCoilFan]

Some of the Karlsson proposals seem like they might just work with enough cap cleared for this upcoming season. But what will happen the following season when Vasy, Sergy and others need new contracts and should get serious raises?

Is committing for 7/8 years to Karlsson really that wise? Heck, as terrific as Mac is, I do worry that the term of his contract will come back to bite us in the butt in a few years. Are we willing to take that risk with Karlsson too?

Don't get me wrong, it would be loads of fun to have 3 #1D on the same team and watch HF go insane.

But still...

 

[ccman68]

Again it will come back to the tax break tampa(florida) has. Paying Carlson 8 mill a year is like getting paid 11 mill a year at most other teams.

That's why fans get frustrated. It's a clear advantage for Tampa to build a roster when they are able to sign players for near 30 percent less then market value and yet the contract is comparable. And I'm sure the beach doesnt hurt

Speaking of that. Is anyone with knowledge able to do team by team comparisons of what every players take home salary would be with each team on a set salary per year?

Say nice round number of 10 mill per season

Weird how that whole tax thing isn’t helping Florida. Almost seems like it’s completely made up.

 

[The Gongshow]

Who comes off the books next year to pay for Vasi, Serg and Cereli? Signing EK might hurt us the following year with these 3

 

[Zerotonine]

Weird how that whole tax thing isn’t helping Florida. Almost seems like it’s completely made up.

Yes your right, people are making up federal and states taxes for there own agenda

 

[ccman68]

Yes your right, people are making up federal and states taxes for there own agenda

People are acting like it’s a huge difference. It’s not. It’s also only for half of the games anyway.

 

[T REX]

Again it will come back to the tax break tampa(florida) has. Paying Carlson 8 mill a year is like getting paid 11 mill a year at most other teams.

That's why fans get frustrated. It's a clear advantage for Tampa to build a roster when they are able to sign players for near 30 percent less then market value and yet the contract is comparable. And I'm sure the beach doesnt hurt

Speaking of that. Is anyone with knowledge able to do team by team comparisons of what every players take home salary would be with each team on a set salary per year?

Say nice round number of 10 mill per season

30%? No. And you aren't taking into account the way they get paid. Game checks when they play on the road are subject to local taxes.

 

[J T Money]

It'll work out, and we'll deal with next year when the time comes...just keep kicking the rock down the road as we always have.

 

[RegularSznAllStars]

People are acting like it’s a huge difference. It’s not. It’s also only for half of the games anyway.

Unless you structure the contracts to be bonus money heavy (ie stamkos). Get your bonus taxed at Florida tax rates then get taxed on the road for half of the games at your remaining salary. Benefits the player with taxes and they get paid in the event of a lockout.

 

[LightningStrikes]

He’s coming

 

[DFC]

Some of the Karlsson proposals seem like they might just work with enough cap cleared for this upcoming season. But what will happen the following season when Vasy, Sergy and others need new contracts and should get serious raises?

Is committing for 7/8 years to Karlsson really that wise? Heck, as terrific as Mac is, I do worry that the term of his contract will come back to bite us in the butt in a few years. Are we willing to take that risk with Karlsson too?

Don't get me wrong, it would be loads of fun to have 3 #1D on the same team and watch HF go insane.

But still...

Sergachev's raise isn't looking all that huge at the moment. If we have a chance to land EK, and it costs us Sergachev (in a trade--so we'd get decent value), then we probably have to go ahead and do it. But Sergachev isn't a big money defenseman at the moment.

 

[Todd1a]

He’s coming

I still doubt it I think the rangers get him

 

[hagg18]

Weird how that whole tax thing isn’t helping Florida. Almost seems like it’s completely made up.

I’d say it’s the reason for all the ntc contracts. If you takes a discount you would make sure you won’t be traded to a high tax state. So it sure gives some discounts, but you get lesser flexibility as well.

 

[TheDaysOf 04]

He’s coming

 

[These Are The Days]

Sergachev's raise isn't looking all that huge at the moment. If we have a chance to land EK, and it costs us Sergachev (in a trade--so we'd get decent value), then we probably have to go ahead and do it. But Sergachev isn't a big money defenseman at the moment.

Agreed. Sergachev's entire bridge deal is probably gonna be worth about 1 year of EK if he were to sign for $9 million AAV

 

[These Are The Days]

Some of the Karlsson proposals seem like they might just work with enough cap cleared for this upcoming season. But what will happen the following season when Vasy, Sergy and others need new contracts and should get serious raises?

Is committing for 7/8 years to Karlsson really that wise? Heck, as terrific as Mac is, I do worry that the term of his contract will come back to bite us in the butt in a few years. Are we willing to take that risk with Karlsson too?

Don't get me wrong, it would be loads of fun to have 3 #1D on the same team and watch HF go insane.

But still...

I don't think 7/8 years is wise. Offer him a 6 year $54 million deal complete with whatever clauses he wants that's frontloaded to the sky. If you do that then come July 1st Karlsson will be 35 years old but only by like a month and day May 31st birthday. As for fitting the other deals, Point is willing to play ball on a bridge deal. So if we sign him to something small it'll make signing Vasy that much easier. Sergachev will be cheap too

 

[Five Alarm Fire]

1. Shed a pick getting rid of Callahan's contract.
2. Recoup assets by shedding Miller and Gourde. Both will have value.
3. Re-sign Point and sign Karlsson.
4. Trade Sergachev for a similar potential forward.

 

[Rschmitz]

I already did the math earlier this season. We need to shed Callahan and Miller/Gourde but then they'll be plenty of money to sign both EK and Point.

The one guy that not enough people are talking about, who absolutely must be signed before Karlsson, is Vasy. If Vasy isn't sitting at the same table signing next to Karlsson than there is way too much risk, we have nobody else in the same stratosphere as a possible fill in for Vasy, and we have no way to shed salary if his #'s are too far away from what we can afford.

There is also that little problem with Seattle. If we sign Karlsson, than even if we go 4-4 we will have to expose Sergachev or Cernak. I guess we are already in a pinch because we have to expose Foote. Perhaps with enough assets Seattle could be convinced to take Killorn/Palat/TJ instead, but that's another very large risk.

This is why a month or so ago, I said a darkhorse to be traded this offseason is Sergachev. Masin fits the 5-6 role much better than Sergachev and he'll cost significantly less to retain. It also doesn't hurt as much to expose him in the expansion draft. That's not to say that I don't love Sergachev and hope we can keep him somehow, but if we get a similar young player or value back it makes sense.