GWT: EPL Week 32

Discussion in 'Soccer' started by Jussi, Mar 30, 2019.

  1. The Abusement Park

    The Abusement Park Registered User

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    That’s how sports work? The team in the best position at the right time will be the favorites.
     
  2. YNWA14

    YNWA14 Onbreekbaar

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    The same team I considered the favourite when most people were saying it was Liverpool, because I wasn't flip-flopping based on a marginal point difference with almost half the season left to play, and knowing the two teams in questions' level of consistency.

    I also never said that you couldn't pick a favourite. I just think it's silly to claim that it's a fact that one team is a favourite based on a small point margin with a ton of points left to play for and knowing each team's relative consistency, and the way they were going about their seasons.

    A 4 point lead with 14 games to go with wins being worth 3 points does not a favourite make. You can look beyond the marginal lead at that point. But I know it's hard to look beyond what you're told or what's right in front of you.
    Is that how sports work?
     
  3. hatterson

    hatterson Registered User

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    How late do you have to get in the season before you're allowed to declare a favorite?

    How large of a lead does a team need at various weeks to be considered a favorite?
     
  4. The Abusement Park

    The Abusement Park Registered User

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    Must be the defense mechanism kicking in.
     
  5. YNWA14

    YNWA14 Onbreekbaar

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    So you considered Leicester the title favourites half way through the season?
     
  6. hatterson

    hatterson Registered User

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    I don't even understand why it's so complicated. On January 30th Liverpool were 4 points up, with a home game to play against a Leicester team in poor form, they were absolutely the favorites at that point in time. Since they they've drawn 4 games while City hasn't dropped a point so City has the lead back.

    At this point I'd say it's really close on who the favorite is. City has a point up and a +9 differential in goals so it's kinda like 1.5 points, however City has two tough league games left, within 4 days of each other, and Liverpool only has 1. Personally I'd give the advantage to Liverpool, but it's not a big one.
     
  7. YNWA14

    YNWA14 Onbreekbaar

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    You're asking for a justification of why I didn't consider Liverpool the favourites, and still don't. There's nothing complicated about it. I don't subscribe to point totals at arbitrary moments to determine whether a team is the favourite or not. Even if they had won that game against Leicester going up 7 points with, again, 42 points to play for, wouldn't have guaranteed them a title. All you have to do is look at how they were winning games, and how their streak was going, compared to how City looked on the field and what they were doing. Then when you consider the teams relative consistency and depth that City came back to overtake them is not at all surprising.

    Clearly you didn't consider Leicester the favourites at the same point in time (or maybe you'll lie and say you did). There is more than just 'this team is 4 points up with a good match-up ahead' when there is that much time left. If you guys can't, or don't want to, wrap your heads around the other factors that influence the title race feel free to bury your head in the sand. You wanted to label Liverpool as favourites so you could gloat if they didn't win...that's fine, but you should own that. If it had been any other team but this City in recent memory I would have considered this Liverpool the favourites, but unfortunately Pep has built a juggernaut that is incredibly efficient and consistent.

    Being the favourites is about probability and there was always a higher probability to me of City overtaking Liverpool, than Liverpool continuing their form and matching City for 14 games. I think most people could have seen that with the on pitch product, too.
     
  8. hatterson

    hatterson Registered User

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    Well half way through the season they were 2nd in the table, so no.

    The earliest they had a decent lead was after week 25 when they had a 5 point lead. Yes, it would be fair to call most teams favorites at that point, although it was a little more complicated in Leicester's case since they were dramatically overperforming their talent which is an issue basically no other teams in that position have had.
     
  9. hatterson

    hatterson Registered User

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    Either way, "favorite" does not mean guarantee, it means who is the most likely.

    If, on the morning of Jan 30th and given what I said above, someone offered you an even money bet on if Liverpool would be the Champions, you should take that without hesitation because you would have had a >50% chance of winning the bet.
     
    Last edited: Apr 4, 2019
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  10. kyle evs48

    kyle evs48 Devilish Boy Grin

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    Exercise extreme caution.
     
  11. bluesfan94

    bluesfan94 #PetroforNorris

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    Last day of the season if the team in the lead is up >3 points.
     
  12. Live in the Now

    Live in the Now Registered User

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    Can't wait until tomorrow's game after all this talk.
     
  13. gary69

    gary69 Registered User

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    Lead of 12 points on February 20th.
     
  14. Chimaera

    Chimaera same ol' Caps

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    I got to see one. I’m fine with it as it stands
     
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  15. Halladay

    Halladay Folesian Society

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    I think this is the toughest game left. Chelsea has a fixture congestion so they should win that game.
     
  16. Blender

    Blender Registered User

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    RLC has changed the dynamic of the team every time he was came on. He adds an aggressiveness and willingness to drive the play forward that Jorginho, Kovacic, and Barkley just don't have. Stubborn Sarri has mostly refused to start him though.
     
  17. Savant

    Savant Registered User

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    Ugh. I think its the purple kits today.
     
  18. YNWA14

    YNWA14 Onbreekbaar

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    I like the purple kits.
     
  19. Jersey Fresh

    Jersey Fresh Video Et Taceo

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    They're better than the yellow highlighter kits, I'll say that much.
     
  20. East Coast Bias

    East Coast Bias Registered User

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    They’re wearing purple and trying to trick Southampton Into thinking they’re City, so they roll over.
     
  21. Savant

    Savant Registered User

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    Y'all are obsessed

    I cant stand them. I wish they kept the same kit range as last year
     
    Duchene2MacKinnon likes this.
  22. Chimaera

    Chimaera same ol' Caps

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    I could care less if they wore puke green and vomit orange. As long as the check doesn't bounce from the kit maker.

    On a side note, they've done ok with the main home kit at least.
     
  23. Savant

    Savant Registered User

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    Every year we get a great home, and its a coin flip on the other stuff
     
  24. YNWA14

    YNWA14 Onbreekbaar

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    You're just noticing the obsessive tendencies on this board?
    Last year's range was really nice, but I like the home and purple this year. The grey is pretty meh...I'm glad that they always have a great home kit though.
     
  25. Duchene2MacKinnon

    Duchene2MacKinnon Dybalascibar

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    Just a thought if Liverpool does in fact win the league, Henderson will be the first to lift the trophy presumably. Gerard will never be able to but Hendo will. If there’s a greater injustice in the world I won’t ever want to see it.
     

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