GWT: EPL Week 32

[The Abusement Park]

Ok, you guys are the experts. Thanks for enlightening me.

That’s how sports work? The team in the best position at the right time will be the favorites.

 

[YNWA14]

I mean, it's just a laughable take to say that you can't pick a favorite when there are 14 games left in a season. Let's play this differently. Who do you consider the favorite now?

The same team I considered the favourite when most people were saying it was Liverpool, because I wasn't flip-flopping based on a marginal point difference with almost half the season left to play, and knowing the two teams in questions' level of consistency.

I also never said that you couldn't pick a favourite. I just think it's silly to claim that it's a fact that one team is a favourite based on a small point margin with a ton of points left to play for and knowing each team's relative consistency, and the way they were going about their seasons.

A 4 point lead with 14 games to go with wins being worth 3 points does not a favourite make. You can look beyond the marginal lead at that point. But I know it's hard to look beyond what you're told or what's right in front of you.

That’s how sports work? The team in the best position at the right time will be the favorites.

Is that how sports work?

 

[hatterson]

How late do you have to get in the season before you're allowed to declare a favorite?

How large of a lead does a team need at various weeks to be considered a favorite?

 

[The Abusement Park]

How late do you have to get in the season before you're allowed to declare a favorite?

How large of a lead does a team need at various weeks to be considered a favorite?

Must be the defense mechanism kicking in.

 

[YNWA14]

How late do you have to get in the season before you're allowed to declare a favorite?

How large of a lead does a team need at various weeks to be considered a favorite?

So you considered Leicester the title favourites half way through the season?

 

[hatterson]

I don't even understand why it's so complicated. On January 30th Liverpool were 4 points up, with a home game to play against a Leicester team in poor form, they were absolutely the favorites at that point in time. Since they they've drawn 4 games while City hasn't dropped a point so City has the lead back.

At this point I'd say it's really close on who the favorite is. City has a point up and a +9 differential in goals so it's kinda like 1.5 points, however City has two tough league games left, within 4 days of each other, and Liverpool only has 1. Personally I'd give the advantage to Liverpool, but it's not a big one.

 

[YNWA14]

You're asking for a justification of why I didn't consider Liverpool the favourites, and still don't. There's nothing complicated about it. I don't subscribe to point totals at arbitrary moments to determine whether a team is the favourite or not. Even if they had won that game against Leicester going up 7 points with, again, 42 points to play for, wouldn't have guaranteed them a title. All you have to do is look at how they were winning games, and how their streak was going, compared to how City looked on the field and what they were doing. Then when you consider the teams relative consistency and depth that City came back to overtake them is not at all surprising.

Clearly you didn't consider Leicester the favourites at the same point in time (or maybe you'll lie and say you did). There is more than just 'this team is 4 points up with a good match-up ahead' when there is that much time left. If you guys can't, or don't want to, wrap your heads around the other factors that influence the title race feel free to bury your head in the sand. You wanted to label Liverpool as favourites so you could gloat if they didn't win...that's fine, but you should own that. If it had been any other team but this City in recent memory I would have considered this Liverpool the favourites, but unfortunately Pep has built a juggernaut that is incredibly efficient and consistent.

Being the favourites is about probability and there was always a higher probability to me of City overtaking Liverpool, than Liverpool continuing their form and matching City for 14 games. I think most people could have seen that with the on pitch product, too.

 

[hatterson]

So you considered Leicester the title favourites half way through the season?

Well half way through the season they were 2nd in the table, so no.

The earliest they had a decent lead was after week 25 when they had a 5 point lead. Yes, it would be fair to call most teams favorites at that point, although it was a little more complicated in Leicester's case since they were dramatically overperforming their talent which is an issue basically no other teams in that position have had.

 

[hatterson]

Either way, "favorite" does not mean guarantee, it means who is the most likely.

If, on the morning of Jan 30th and given what I said above, someone offered you an even money bet on if Liverpool would be the Champions, you should take that without hesitation because you would have had a >50% chance of winning the bet.

 

[Burner Account]

The Mets are winning the pennant this year.

Exercise extreme caution.

 

[bluesfan94]

How late do you have to get in the season before you're allowed to declare a favorite?

How large of a lead does a team need at various weeks to be considered a favorite?

Last day of the season if the team in the lead is up >3 points.

 

[Live in the Now]

Can't wait until tomorrow's game after all this talk.

 

[gary69]

How late do you have to get in the season before you're allowed to declare a favorite?

How large of a lead does a team need at various weeks to be considered a favorite?

Lead of 12 points on February 20th.

 

[Chimaera]

Which is clearly the best part of the playoffs.

I got to see one. I’m fine with it as it stands

 

[Halladay]

Can't wait until tomorrow's game after all this talk.

I think this is the toughest game left. Chelsea has a fixture congestion so they should win that game.

 

[Blender]

Hopefully Sarri learns to just start Hudson-Odoi and RLC whenever they are fit to play.

RLC has changed the dynamic of the team every time he was came on. He adds an aggressiveness and willingness to drive the play forward that Jorginho, Kovacic, and Barkley just don't have. Stubborn Sarri has mostly refused to start him though.

 

[Savant]

Ugh. I think its the purple kits today.

 

[YNWA14]

Ugh. I think its the purple kits today.

I like the purple kits.

 

[Jersey Fresh]

They're better than the yellow highlighter kits, I'll say that much.

 

[East Coast Bias]

They’re wearing purple and trying to trick Southampton Into thinking they’re City, so they roll over.

 

[Savant]

They’re wearing purple and trying to trick Southampton Into thinking they’re City, so they roll over.

Y'all are obsessed

I like the purple kits.

I cant stand them. I wish they kept the same kit range as last year

 

[Chimaera]

I could care less if they wore puke green and vomit orange. As long as the check doesn't bounce from the kit maker.

On a side note, they've done ok with the main home kit at least.

 

[Savant]

I could care less if they wore puke green and vomit orange. As long as the check doesn't bounce from the kit maker.

On a side note, they've done ok with the main home kit at least.

Every year we get a great home, and its a coin flip on the other stuff

 

[YNWA14]

Y'all are obsessed

You're just noticing the obsessive tendencies on this board?

I cant stand them. I wish they kept the same kit range as last year

Last year's range was really nice, but I like the home and purple this year. The grey is pretty meh...I'm glad that they always have a great home kit though.

 

[Duchene2MacKinnon]

Just a thought if Liverpool does in fact win the league, Henderson will be the first to lift the trophy presumably. Gerard will never be able to but Hendo will. If there’s a greater injustice in the world I won’t ever want to see it.