GWT: EPL - Matchweek 17

[HeHateMeFrisbee]

Smart fold.

Nope, just pretty bored of arguing back and forth with you over something that really doesn't matter. You think Spurs are lucky and offer dodgy stats. I don't. We are not going to change each other's opinion, so what is the point of continuing it?

 

[bluesfan94]

Nope, just pretty bored of arguing back and forth with you over something that really doesn't matter. You think Spurs are lucky and offer dodgy stats. I don't. We are not going to change each other's opinion, so what is the point of continuing it?

Yeah, you calling 'em dodgy stats is why it was a smart fold.

 

[HeHateMeFrisbee]

That's a subtle dig at someone i consider a turd.

 

[Wee Baby Seamus]

Smart fold.

Anyway, the irony of all of this is that if you think overperformance of GA compared to xGA is how you determine good goalkeeping, you're forced to concede that Onana is the best goalkeeper in the Prem, followed by Kaminski.

Ironically, based on xGOT (which is the stat that actually links xG to goalkeeping), Onana and Kaminski have actually been the best two keepers in the league this year (or at least were when my buddy and I talked about this last week).

 

[bluesfan94]

Ironically, based on xGOT (which is the stat that actually links xG to goalkeeping), Onana and Kaminski have actually been the best two keepers in the league this year (or at least were when my buddy and I talked about this last week).

Yeah they've actually been quite good, it's just that neither would consider them top goalkeepers this year (albeit for different reasons; Onana is because we're watching him in Europe while Kaminski is on a pretty bad team).

But the point I'm making is saying that good goalkeeping means that you aren't getting lucky is drastically oversimplifying things and relying on good goalkeeping to continually outperform xG isn't an actual winning strategy.

 

[cgf]

Yeah they've actually been quite good, it's just that neither would consider them top goalkeepers this year (albeit for different reasons; Onana is because we're watching him in Europe while Kaminski is on a pretty bad team).

But the point I'm making is saying that good goalkeeping means that you aren't getting lucky is drastically oversimplifying things and relying on good goalkeeping to continually outperform xG isn't an actual winning strategy.

Yeah, consistently outperforming your xG requires excellent goalkeeping and someone as lethal as a prime Kruse or Raffael

 

[KJS14]

Havertz is still the weakest outfield player in Arsenal's 11. Him and White.

Yeah, I'd consider him the weakest outfield player, but that's also because Arsenal has a very strong starting 11 at the moment. If you removed Havertz from the question, then who is the weak link?

Saka - stud, one of the best wingers in the world
Jesus - not always clinical, but tremendous creativity, hold up play, and fluidity in attack
Martinelli - stud, but needs to improve decision making at times
Odegaard - stud, lot of great 8/10 tweeners, but he's up there with the best
Rice - stud, one of the best CDMs in the world
Saliba - stud, one of the best CBs in the world
Gabriel - stud, great compliment to Saliba, rare dumb moments
White - excellent foil to Zinchenko, mostly sound in defense, and offers overlap for Saka
Zinchenko - metronome to our team/tactics, which makes up for defensive shortcomings

I was going to argue with your calling out of Ben White, because he's been fantastic for us, but at the same time I don't have an easy answer. I have some critiques for certain players, but they mostly make up for their shortcomings in other areas.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

But the point I'm making is saying that good goalkeeping means that you aren't getting lucky is drastically oversimplifying things and relying on good goalkeeping to continually outperform xG isn't an actual winning strategy.

xG isn't as telling a stat on "luck" as xPTS is, and the luckiest team in the PL this year according to that is Villa and 2nd are ManU.

 

[bluesfan94]

xG isn't as telling a stat on "luck" as xPTS is, and the luckiest team in the PL this year according to that is Villa and 2nd are ManU.

One is based off the other.

Kinda burying to lede to not mention that tottenham is 3rd luckiest in that metric.

 

[Wee Baby Seamus]

Yeah, I'd consider him the weakest outfield player, but that's also because Arsenal has a very strong starting 11 at the moment. If you removed Havertz from the question, then who is the weak link?

Saka - stud, one of the best wingers in the world
Jesus - not always clinical, but tremendous creativity, hold up play, and fluidity in attack
Martinelli - stud, but needs to improve decision making at times
Odegaard - stud, lot of great 8/10 tweeners, but he's up there with the best
Rice - stud, one of the best CDMs in the world
Saliba - stud, one of the best CBs in the world
Gabriel - stud, great compliment to Saliba, rare dumb moments
White - excellent foil to Zinchenko, mostly sound in defense, and offers overlap for Saka
Zinchenko - metronome to our team/tactics, which makes up for defensive shortcomings

I was going to argue with your calling out of Ben White, because he's been fantastic for us, but at the same time I don't have an easy answer. I have some critiques for certain players, but they mostly make up for their shortcomings in other areas.

I've been underwhelmed by Martinelli this year vis-a-vis last, do Arsenal fans feel similarly?

 

[bluesfan94]

I've been underwhelmed by Martinelli this year vis-a-vis last, do Arsenal fans feel similarly?

His end product hasn't been quite as impressive, but he's gotten a bunch of chances and has been important on the counter, in games where we get to counter.

I think the biggest difference is Arsenal is winning the ball higher up the pitch against lower blocks, so his best attributes are a bit negated. Plus, for all Havertz does well, he's not as great at providing support for Martinelli as Xhaka was. And Jesus has missed big chunks of games.

So I think he's been not as good as last year, but it is exacerbated by tactical realities.

 

[Wee Baby Seamus]

His end product hasn't been quite as impressive, but he's gotten a bunch of chances and has been important on the counter, in games where we get to counter.

I think the biggest difference is Arsenal is winning the ball higher up the pitch against lower blocks, so his best attributes are a bit negated. Plus, for all Havertz does well, he's not as great at providing support for Martinelli as Xhaka was. And Jesus has missed big chunks of games.

So I think he's been not as good as last year, but it is exacerbated by tactical realities.

Cheers, appreciate the detail

 

[S E P H]

Havertz is still the weakest outfield player in Arsenal's 11. Him and White.

He's really picked up his play though. The last two months he's been better than Xhaka easily, except at covering. Not that this defensive game is brutal or something, but he tends to stay central.

I really want Tomiyasu to start over White, he was our best player before going down to injury IMHO. Nonetheless, I suggest that Zinchenko is weaker than White. Ben playing CB for a year has helped him a lot even though he gets beat by more agile players. Zinchenko just doesn't have the defensive IQ even if he's a brilliant player in his own right, us losing against Villa is because of him making a major mistake.

 

[KJS14]

I've been underwhelmed by Martinelli this year vis-a-vis last, do Arsenal fans feel similarly?

Agree with everything @bluesfan94 said, and I do think he's been a bit underwhelming with some of his decision making in the final third. But I think the biggest change has been that last year we had Martinelli, Jesus, Xhaka, and Zinchenko all fluidly overloading the left side, and Havertz doesn't really fit that style. While I've been defending Havertz, I do think we'd be a lot better served with a different type of midfielder in his role - someone with more passing range and quick combinations vs Havertz runs that open up space.

 

[spintheblackcircle]

One is based off the other.

Kinda burying to lede to not mention that tottenham is 3rd luckiest in that metric.

The lede is you only talk about the team in 3rd, not the one in 2nd or 1st. Or Liverpool, who are 5th.

 

[bluesfan94]

The lede is you only talk about the team in 3rd, not the one in 2nd or 1st. Or Liverpool, who are 5th.

Certainly have never talked about Liverpool or United, you caught me. If you go back to the genesis of the conversation, it was me posting the xG to the Tottenham game and someone getting their feelings hurt about that. Of course I didn't mention Villa or United in that conversation.

 

[Savant]

I think xG is best thought of as an efficiency measure

 

[HeHateMeFrisbee]

Certainly have never talked about Liverpool or United, you caught me. If you go back to the genesis of the conversation, it was me posting the xG to the Tottenham game and someone getting their feelings hurt about that. Of course I didn't mention Villa or United in that conversation.

Nope, feelings were not hurt, just disagreed with you. If anyone is emotional, it appears to be you. Have an egg nog and enjoy the holidays man!