GWT: EPL - Matchweek 17

[Jussi]

My stream changed to another game during the post-game studio but I hear Keano went off on Sturridge and VVD:

 

[Jussi]

 

[Jussi]

Liverpool ‘utterly condemn’ damage caused to Manchester United team bus | Liverpool | The Guardian

Liverpool have condemned the incident that led to a window on Manchester United’s bus being damaged and are working with Merseyside Police

amp.theguardian.com

 

[S E P H]

United doing the Lord's work tonight. Who would have thought that? lol.

 

[al secord]

My stream changed to another game during the post-game studio but I hear Keano went off on Sturridge and VVD:

Hearing Roy use the term "dissing" reminded me of my dad trying to fit in with my friends.

 

[ItsFineImFine]

Felt that there was a lot of offensive hesitancy in that Utd-Liverpool game by both teams. One or two too many touches, an overpass, an extra dribble, etc.

Partly cos Utd kept a fairly good shape so credit to them for that. They really need to find something better on the right side though than Antony, and it wasn't even his worse game. Garnacho is providing something on the left now at least.

 

[bluesfan94]

The only thing that gets to that man is the champions league music.

 

[luiginb]

I take it Dalot swore at the ref, otherwise it's completely unreasonable.

I liked Trent tonight, also in defense which is a rarity for him. Szobo and Diaz didn't look motivated at all on the other hand.

 

[Wee Baby Seamus]

After buying Havertz, you finished 19pts out of 1st in both 2020-21...when you were just 1pt ahead of 5th...and 2021-22; when you went out in the CL QFs. That CL win was a big outlier even before the ownership change.

Obviously things went to s*** from there, and that may have still happened even if you were on City's level when Roman had to sell, but that's a different topic.

That's what it looks like on paper retroactively, but not how it played out in real time in 2021-22.

Ownership turmoil started in late February, at which point we were already 10 points back - title challenge was done after poor Christmas form. But we had walked the UCL group stage and regained early season form by February.

Then ownership turmoil starts. It became clear immediately that the uncertainty with ownership was infecting the players on the pitch, and the performances dropped off heavily. It's a testament to Tuchel that they didn't drop off harder, but the before-after was stark.

Even with that, with Chelsea in a stasis and clearly struggling to focus on the pitch, they lost the UCL QF to Madrid (who won the tournament) in extra time. It's very conceivable to me that a Chelsea pre-turmoil would've won that fixture and the odds of a UCL Final were not bad.

 

[hatterson]

I take it Dalot swore at the ref, otherwise it's completely unreasonable.

I liked Trent tonight, also in defense which is a rarity for him. Szobo and Diaz didn't look motivated at all on the other hand.

The thing is, if he crossed some verbal line, it should be a straight red.

Giving two yellows for 5 seconds of dissent is inexcusable.

 

[cgf]

That's what it looks like on paper retroactively, but not how it played out in real time in 2021-22.

Ownership turmoil started in late February, at which point we were already 10 points back - title challenge was done after poor Christmas form. But we had walked the UCL group stage and regained early season form by February.

Then ownership turmoil starts. It became clear immediately that the uncertainty with ownership was infecting the players on the pitch, and the performances dropped off heavily. It's a testament to Tuchel that they didn't drop off harder, but the before-after was stark.

Even with that, with Chelsea in a stasis and clearly struggling to focus on the pitch, they lost the UCL QF to Madrid (who won the tournament) in extra time. It's very conceivable to me that a Chelsea pre-turmoil would've won that fixture and the odds of a UCL Final were not bad.

So before ownership turmoil, with Kai you were 19pts and 10pts (with almost half the season still to got) out of first. That's pretty clearly not the best team in Europe, no?

 

[Wee Baby Seamus]

So before ownership turmoil, with Kai you were 19pts and 10pts (with almost half the season still to got) out of first. That's pretty clearly not the best team in Europe, no?

So we’re gonna revisit the initial posts here, which were about the UCL run being an outlier. With ownership turmoil (which very clearly impacted on pitch play), we were a whisker away from a UCL semi in 2022. Don’t think it’s nuts to say that a smooth ownership sitch and we beat Madrid in that QF, given how tight it was.

 

[cgf]

So we’re gonna revisit the initial posts here, which were about the UCL run being an outlier. With ownership turmoil (which very clearly impacted on pitch play), we were a whisker away from a UCL semi in 2022. Don’t think it’s nuts to say that a smooth ownership sitch and we beat Madrid in that QF, given how tight it was.

Well what I was getting at with that original comment was that that CL run wasn't representative of what you guys were doing in the league, which is why Kai wasn't generally as successful...even before the ownership issues...as he was during that run.

But even if you had gotten past Madrid, you would've had to have gone through a Manchester team that was already 10 points ahead of you in the league and a Liverpool that ended up 18pts ahead of you. You can't just assume you would've pulled the upset against both.

 

[HeHateMeFrisbee]

You had a marginally higher xG and won by 2 goals. Yeah, it’s lucky.

No, it's not. A good goalkeeper is part of a team, no?

 

[HeHateMeFrisbee]

That United/Liverpool game was one of the worst I have seen in a long time. What a snooze fest.

 

[Jack Straw]

No, it's not. A good goalkeeper is part of a team, no?

GTFOH with your damn logic and common sense. I mean, how dare you?

 

[robertmac43]

The @robertmac43 derby.

Was probably the best outcome on my end. I'm not as stressed about Brighton EPL season this year since most of the focus is on Europa League.

 

[bluesfan94]

No, it's not. A good goalkeeper is part of a team, no?

xG isn’t simply a matter of goalkeeping.

 

[maclean]

Saving this post if he goes cold again, because he's had streaks like this before at Chelsea then went weeks with nothing.

I would just like to go on record in saying that, while I'm happy Kai's popping them in right now, it will take a lot more consistency before I'm really convinced he was worth the price tag. Obviously I'm hopeful because what is sports fandom other than toiling the endless mines of hope, and it would be great if he really had finally "caught on", but as you say, many's the player who went on a hot streak only to become useless again

 

[HeHateMeFrisbee]

xG isn’t simply a matter of goalkeeping.

Goalkeeping is the counter to xG though. So, good goal keeping keeps out expected goals. Therefore, good goal keeping is part of a winning strategy, and not luck.

 

[Power Man]

KDB?

Forgot about him

He has missed so many games
Still a choker though

If Arsenal don’t win the league this year….

On a platter for them

Believe in The Almighty

 

[luiginb]

Havertz is still the weakest outfield player in Arsenal's 11. Him and White.

 

[bluesfan94]

Goalkeeping is the counter to xG though. So, good goal keeping keeps out expected goals. Therefore, good goal keeping is part of a winning strategy, and not luck.

Yeah, except that that isn't actually how it works. You're thinking of post-shot expected goal (or PSxG), not xG.

And it's easy to see why that matters. For a second, imagine a penalty kick. That has an xG of somewhere between .75 and .8. Let's say Spurs give up a penalty. We'll just say that it's .8 xGA. Now let's say the PK taker absolutely skies the attempt. I mean puts it into the upper deck. Congrats - you're now over-performing your xGA by a significant margin and it had nothing to do with your goalie.

Okay great - now let's look at that concept just in context of the Nottingham Forest game. As you will see, according to this model, Nottingham Forest actually won the xG battle 1.71 to 1.61. Other models have it at similar numbers, albeit with Tottenham slightly edging out Forest. Regardless, Vicario made one (1) save. Let's just say that save was an absolute miraculous. Like Vicario saved the surest thing you could imagine with an xG of 0.99 (this is literally impossible because for it to be that high of an xG, the goalie would have to be far away, but I'll give Spurs all the benefits possible for this argument). Even then, there would be an xG of 0.72, which means more likely than not, Forest should have scored.

So Tottenham is lucky they didn't, and part of the reason they didn't score is because Nottingham was remarkably unclinical and turned a 1.71 xG into a 0.4 PSxG. 1.3 xG were completely missed with Vicario having nothing to do with it. Meanwhile, Tottenham, to their credit, were clinical, turning 1.61 xG into a PSxG of 1. So while Turner was poor, Vicario was pretty mediocre and made all of one save.

Basically, yes, good goalkeeping is part of a winning strategy (although it should be noted that 3/4 of the last title winners had their goalies underperform the PSxG, with the one exception being 20-21 Man City posting an unremarkable +1.0). However, that doesn't mean that there isn't a ton of luck involved.

And I'm not even going to get into the conversation about refereeing.

 

[HeHateMeFrisbee]

Your argument is boring and you have an agenda against Tottenham for tribal reasons. It's dumb and I don't really feel like paying attention to it anymore.

 

[bluesfan94]

Smart fold.

Anyway, the irony of all of this is that if you think overperformance of GA compared to xGA is how you determine good goalkeeping, you're forced to concede that Onana is the best goalkeeper in the Prem, followed by Kaminski.