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GWT: EPL - Matchweek 13

bluesfan94

bluesfan94

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Jan 7, 2008
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A couple fun matchups on Saturday as Brighton heads to City and Chelsea and a possibly resurgent Manchester United clash. Meanwhile, on Sunday, Tottenham plays Newcastle.

HomeAwayTime and Date (CDT)Venue
Nottingham ForestLiverpoolSat., Oct. 22, 6:30 AMCity Ground
EvertonCrystal PalaceSat., Oct. 22, 9:00 AMGoodison Park
Manchester CityBrighton & Hove AlbionSat., Oct. 22, 9:00 AMThe Etihad
ChelseaManchester UnitedSat., Oct. 22, 11:30 AMStamford Bridge
Wolverhampton WanderersLeicester CitySun., Oct. 23, 8:00 AMMolineux Stadium
Aston VillaBrentfordSun., Oct. 23, 8:00 AMVilla Park
SouthamptonArsenalSun., Oct. 23, 8:00 AMSt. Mary's Stadium
Leeds UnitedFulhamSun., Oct. 23, 8:00 AMElland Road
Tottenham HotspurNewcastle UnitedSun., Oct. 23, 10:30 AMTottenham Hotspur Stadium
West Ham UnitedAFC BournemouthMon., Oct. 24, 2:00 PMLondon Stadium
Click to read more...
 
Blender

Blender

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Dec 2, 2009
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robertmac43 said:
They would be in contention for the League if they did that.
Click to expand...
1666272107118.png


EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2023/2024 season | Understat.com

xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2023/2024 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.
understat.com understat.com
 
gary69

gary69

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Then and there
Blender said:
View attachment 596302

EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2023/2024 season | Understat.com

xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2023/2024 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.
understat.com understat.com
Click to expand...

Looks like it's a flawed stat, with almost all the bottom teams with more expected points and almost all the top teams with less expected points.

It seems not to correctly calculate / emphasize match situations, which leads to points (wins/draws).
 
hatterson

hatterson

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gary69 said:
Looks like it's a flawed stat, with almost all the bottom teams with more expected points and almost all the top teams with less expected points.

It seems not to correctly calculate / emphasize match situations, which leads to points (wins/draws).
Click to expand...

The xPts is basically just a calculation on a game by game basis of what the final xG difference gives as win odds.

So a team that gets 2 xG in a game versus 1 xGA may be expected to win 70%, draw 25%, lose 5% (made up numbers) so they'd earn 2.35 xPTS and the opposition would earn 0.4. In general that's not a bad approach, but as you mentioned it totally ignores the game flow and how those xG numbers happened.

The United/City game is a very egregious example. City finished with 3.01 xG compared to United's 1.71 That makes it seem like a game where City had an advantage, but it was potentially close and United had chances to draw or maybe thief a win. Instead for anyone who watched it, and for anyone looking at the minute by minute xG chart, the xG was 2.98 to 0.14 when the game was 6-1 in the 80th minute. Then Martial popped in a couple sitters in the last 10 minutes after City basically stopped playing so suddenly United finished at 1.71 xG.

The xPts for that game are 2.24 - 0.57 which is hilarious as it gives United 0.57 more xPts than they deserved.

That's also a reason why it's not surprising for lower teams to have higher xPts. It's not uncommon for a losing team to be pushing for a late consolation goal while down by a couple and the other team has generally stopped going 100% and thus artificially inflating their xG. Basically xG or xPts aren't really adjusted for score effects, which has a significant impact on mock tables.
 
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Savant

Savant

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More fun with fancy stats.



Maybe he is heating up? Underlying stats so he has been inefficient but the volume and upside is certainly there. Has as many goals in all comps as Gabriel Jesus does and has played almost half as much game time. Was LFC’s best outfield player yesterday.
 
Blender

Blender

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Dec 2, 2009
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hatterson said:
The xPts is basically just a calculation on a game by game basis of what the final xG difference gives as win odds.

So a team that gets 2 xG in a game versus 1 xGA may be expected to win 70%, draw 25%, lose 5% (made up numbers) so they'd earn 2.35 xPTS and the opposition would earn 0.4. In general that's not a bad approach, but as you mentioned it totally ignores the game flow and how those xG numbers happened.

The United/City game is a very egregious example. City finished with 3.01 xG compared to United's 1.71 That makes it seem like a game where City had an advantage, but it was potentially close and United had chances to draw or maybe thief a win. Instead for anyone who watched it, and for anyone looking at the minute by minute xG chart, the xG was 2.98 to 0.14 when the game was 6-1 in the 80th minute. Then Martial popped in a couple sitters in the last 10 minutes after City basically stopped playing so suddenly United finished at 1.71 xG.

The xPts for that game are 2.24 - 0.57 which is hilarious as it gives United 0.57 more xPts than they deserved.

That's also a reason why it's not surprising for lower teams to have higher xPts. It's not uncommon for a losing team to be pushing for a late consolation goal while down by a couple and the other team has generally stopped going 100% and thus artificially inflating their xG. Basically xG or xPts aren't really adjusted for score effects, which has a significant impact on mock tables.
Click to expand...
gary69 said:
Looks like it's a flawed stat, with almost all the bottom teams with more expected points and almost all the top teams with less expected points.

It seems not to correctly calculate / emphasize match situations, which leads to points (wins/draws).
Click to expand...
10 games is a bit early to be looking at that stat anyways, but generally the teams in the bottom half of the table will end up worse off, but it varies from year to year as some bottom half teams actually play quite well but fail to finish or fail to stop shots.
 
robertmac43

robertmac43

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Mar 31, 2015
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Interesting development. I wish I could be a fly on the wall for the Ronaldo, ten Hag discussion behind closed doors.
 
Jovavic

Jovavic

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Really making the clubs line up for his services with this behavior. I wonder if no one bites during the winter window he ends up f***ing off to SA and takes the money.
 
LOGiK

LOGiK

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Nov 14, 2007
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Watched every united match this season and Ronaldo hasn't showed much of a reason why he should be on the first team. From a viewers pov he hasn't done much and missed an absurd amount of chances. Created a few openings with his runs, but... not much direct production.

Arsenal can't stop winning... really wished they'd not postponed the city match... but I think that worked out in cities favor as they've not scored a goal in two matches now. They'll most likely be back in routing form when that match gets rescheduled.
Honestly sick of Gab Jesus and his constantly constipated look... was funny at first, but now... eh.
 
The Abusement Park

The Abusement Park

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robertmac43 said:
Interesting development. I wish I could be a fly on the wall for the Ronaldo, ten Hag discussion behind closed doors.
Click to expand...
ETH: your way to f***ing shit to be this f***ing problematic.

CR7: Fine I’ll leave

ETH: You’re to shit to be wanted. Good luck.
 
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