Confirmed with Link: Ellis extended 8 years [6.25m AAV]

[LCPreds]

I do find it interesting that the story of the off-season was getting Ellis signed.

That dragged to the point where people started creating ‘disappointment walls’ so they wouldn’t get betrayed again a la Suter. (You know what I mean, digging into his game and crafting all of the reasons he basically sucks.)

Ellis signs and now it’s weird that getting a good deal for both sides is somehow perceived as a problem.

I really couldn’t care less about the term. Let’s all get back together in 2023 and see if Ellis is even still a Pred at that point before worrying about it today. Bottom line to me is he’s signed at good value for the window that appears to be at minimum 3-4 years and that’s what should matter most. And even if the term holds it’s not like having an aged Ellis signed at 6.25m in 2027 is going to be the difference between being good or bad.

 

[Drake744]

I do find it interesting that the story of the off-season was getting Ellis signed.

That dragged to the point where people started creating ‘disappointment walls’ so they wouldn’t get betrayed again a la Suter. (You know what I mean, digging into his game and crafting all of the reasons he basically sucks.)

Ellis signs and now it’s weird that getting a good deal for both sides is somehow perceived as a problem.

I really couldn’t care less about the term. Let’s all get back together in 2023 and see if Ellis is even still a Pred at that point before worrying about it today. Bottom line to me is he’s signed at good value for the window that appears to be at minimum 3-4 years and that’s what should matter most. And even if the term holds it’s not like having an aged Ellis signed at 6.25m in 2027 is going to be the difference between being good or bad.

If I could, I'd go dig up posts from 2011 when we signed Rinne to a 7 year extension and people said the exact same stuff. Well, fast forward to 2017 and he takes us to the Final and in 2018 he wins a Vezina.

Look at Shea Weber. What were some of us saying about that deal? Yeah well that ended in what some just might call unpredictable fashion. None of us have a crystal ball and freaking out over how long a guy is signed for is frankly pointless in my mind. The only certainty is uncertainty and we have no idea how it'll actually pan out.

 

[Pred303]

every contract you sign is a gamble. this is a good gamble.

 

[CMDEADLY]

I'm surprised at the slight negativity. Relatively cost controlled 8 years for a good dman in today's NHL. Especially with the cap going to increase as long as the players have the 5% increase.

 

[Soundgarden]

I think the number looks intimidating, but I'm sure we wouldn't be scoffing at a 5.75M contract? It's only .50 more and by the time his play declines I'm sure the cap will have risen to the point where 6.25 is nothing.

 

[Armourboy]

If I could, I'd go dig up posts from 2011 when we signed Rinne to a 7 year extension and people said the exact same stuff. Well, fast forward to 2017 and he takes us to the Final and in 2018 he wins a Vezina.

Look at Shea Weber. What were some of us saying about that deal? Yeah well that ended in what some just might call unpredictable fashion. None of us have a crystal ball and freaking out over how long a guy is signed for is frankly pointless in my mind. The only certainty is uncertainty and we have no idea how it'll actually pan out.

Go dig it up, if I recall it was a contract I was perfectly ok with. Difference is I thought Rinne would make it til the end. I'm not convinced Ellis will.

 

[PredsV82]

Go dig it up, if I recall it was a contract I was perfectly ok with. Difference is I thought Rinne would make it til the end. I'm not convinced Ellis will.

And that's simply the cost of doing business now. A good player is going to want as much financial security as possible, and as a UFA they have the ability to command it. Look at every "good" UFA who signs at age 28 or so. They all get 7 or 8 years.

 

[sparkle twin]

Even if it was injury related I think his poor playoffs against Winnipeg is a concern.

If Ellis was the only defenseman that had a bad playoff, and if this was a regular occurrence, I might have a very slight concern about an 8 year deal. But the defense as a whole didn't play particularly well in the playoffs, especially at home.

I think we all should wait to see how he (and the rest of the defense) responds this season before worrying for nothing.

 

[Armourboy]

And that's simply the cost of doing business now. A good player is going to want as much financial security as possible, and as a UFA they have the ability to command it. Look at every "good" UFA who signs at age 28 or so. They all get 7 or 8 years.

Yeah and a good chunk end up being dead weight by the end too.

 

[MrJoshua]

I know you're all waiting for my take so ... what, none of you? Well, here it is anyway.

The yearly cost seems fine for what he brings to the table. It's long. The cap hit will probably be higher than he's worth near the end of it. But, that's only because of how the cap hit is calculated. If you look at what he's actually getting paid each year starting in 2019-2020 (first year of the new contract):

$7.7M (out of which $7M is a signing bonus)
$5.3M
$7.7M
$5.3M
$7.5M
$6.5M
$5.5M
$4.5M

So, in terms of actual salary, it's probably about right. Maybe a little overpaid a couple of years, but that's balanced out by those two $5.3M years in his prime where he'll probably be underpaid. Average yearly cost of $6.5M the first four years.

I think it's probably around market value, overall, for a guy who can eat up 25 minutes a night on your top pairing and be solid doing it. And if he drops down the depth chart in the final 2-3 years of the deal, well his pay reflects that possibility.

 

[101st_fan]

I'm actually shocked how little of this is in the form of signing bonuses with the upcoming CBA expiration.

 

[INDhockeyfan]

Preds don't seem to give out signing bonuses. I think the only reason Ellis got one is because they don't have to pay Subban a signing bonus that year. I just looked at Subban's contract and didn't realize how much of it is signing bonuses. That is fine for a team like Montreal who has ownership who can give out millions at one time to players but for the Preds ownership, they may not have the money to give out all at one time to too many players. They had to do it with Weber and now Subban but you don't see Poile handing them out in contracts he negotiated just like NTC.

 

[101st_fan]

Preds don't seem to give out signing bonuses. I think the only reason Ellis got one is because they don't have to pay Subban a signing bonus that year. I just looked at Subban's contract and didn't realize how much of it is signing bonuses. That is fine for a team like Montreal who has ownership who can give out millions at one time to players but for the Preds ownership, they may not have the money to give out all at one time to too many players. They had to do it with Weber and now Subban but you don't see Poile handing them out in contracts he negotiated just like NTC.

The next impending CBA expiration during this deal makes it not an exactly normal situation. Signing bonuses get paid even if there is a work stoppage ... so either Poile convinced Ellis he thinks there is little chance of another stoppage or Ellis REALLY likes being in Nashville.

 

[Armourboy]

The next impending CBA expiration during this deal makes it not an exactly normal situation. Signing bonuses get paid even if there is a work stoppage ... so either Poile convinced Ellis he thinks there is little chance of another stoppage or Ellis REALLY likes being in Nashville.

Or Ellis is smart enough to know it's coming so will save some of what he earns so it's not a huge deal either way. These guys are making millions, if you can't figure out how to save some money to " suffer " through an impending work stoppage, I don't feel that sorry for you.

 

[101st_fan]

Or Ellis is smart enough to know it's coming so will save some of what he earns so it's not a huge deal either way. These guys are making millions, if you can't figure out how to save some money to " suffer " through an impending work stoppage, I don't feel that sorry for you.

Yeah ... let's go with the ignorance angle.

I don't feel sorry for them if they don't get paid but I also understand why a person would structure a contract to ensure they got paid and minimized any impact of a potential work stoppage. Having enough in the bank to miss a paycheck or two is not sufficient reason to not want to guarantee the next check hits as scheduled.

 

[Armourboy]

Yeah ... let's go with the ignorance angle.

I don't feel sorry for them if they don't get paid but I also understand why a person would structure a contract to ensure they got paid and minimized any impact of a potential work stoppage. Having enough in the bank to miss a paycheck or two is not sufficient reason to not want to guarantee the next check hits as scheduled.

I get it too, but it's something every single one of these guys should be able to work around if it means getting a contract signed. They are guaranteed contracts, you are going to get paid one way or the other. If your financial situation is that tight making that kind of money, that's your own stupidity.

 

[101st_fan]

Salaries take a hit in truncated or canceled seasons. Signing bonuses do not.

That is why so many UFA contracts are so signing bonus heavy. In the event of a work stoppage, there is not a pay stoppage.

 

[Porter Stoutheart]

If Josi is willing, the easiest thing to do is leave him unsigned until after the expansion draft. A dangerous game for both sides but worth it rather than losing another talented forward

It sounds now like maybe Seattle is heading a year further off than originally anticipated? If they aren't in until 2021-22 now, then who knows what the landscape will be like. Post new-CBA too. Josi will have been re-signed. We'll be down to the last year of Subban and Ekholm. But by then will Fabbro and Tolvanen lose exemption. Etc. A lot happens with an extra year! All the more reason to just lock Ellis up and take the best run you can in the next 3 seasons!!!

Seattle expansion bid vote likely in December