Confirmed with Link: Ellis extended 8 years [6.25m AAV]

Flgatorguy87

Registered User
Jul 7, 2011
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Is anyone actually concerned that his play would drop far enough that we couldn't trade this contract if needed? He isn't a guy built on his speed and physicality. He plays a smart game that should translate well into our 2nd pairing for the majority, if not all, of that contract if needed. I have a hard time envisioning that deal becoming a boat anchor if his play slips when he is 33 but maybe I am overly optimistic.
 

Porter Stoutheart

We Got Wood
Jun 14, 2017
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What does that good mean? I think it can be argued he was good before he had an amazing half season, statistically, last season, I think Ellis took longer to develop than many thought but since he has been in the league I've seen a steady improvement every year. It's not atypical for defenseman not to hit their peak until their mid to late twenties. I think he has developed differently than expected but at the same time has developed as well as you could hope for. By that I mean he isn't the defensively challenged small offensive dynamo that was expected. Instead he became a steady defenseman whose size and skating didn't hurt him as much as expected. To counter that he also didn't become the offensive dynamo from the back end.

Last year in his 44 games he was on a roughly 17/18 goal 60 point pace. I'd agree he is not that good. If he was that good we wouldn't be getting him at 6.25 no matter the term. If he can settle into a 10-15 goal 40-45 point steady defenseman this contract is a win.

I agree about the durability but any player you sign for that long is a risk. I also agree the big win is no NMC/NTC. Poile has done a great job of building a SC contender, locking core guys down to good contracts but also keeping his options open for the future when the situation will inevitably change.
That's basically it. I don't see him being a 60-pt defenseman, not until Subban goes away anyhow, and I don't see him being particularly good defensively. He's good. I just don't know that his track record has really fully established him at $6.25M-good yet. But that's how Poile gets a guy for 8 years and no clauses. He extends the benefit of doubt, and some term, and gets a contract that works out of it. Ellis doesn't have to do much in the short-term to justify it. Just put in a full good solid 40-50pt season as 2nd pairing RD and not mess the bed in the playoffs. Then he'll be "that good". He has never done that before. I think he CAN do it. But I'm not going to be 100% sure until he actually does.
 
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NoNecksCurse

#164303
Oct 19, 2011
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honestly not thrilled whatsoever. his play last year was his best stretch of his career and it was for half a season. we signed him till he is 36 years old and he will slow down at some point. the cap hit isn't horrible but my no means do i feel he gave us a bargain. i am glad he did not receive a NTC.

all in all, an okay deal to me. not bad but i do not think poile is a magician by any means on this one. he got term and money.
 

Bringer of Jollity

Registered User
Oct 20, 2011
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honestly not thrilled whatsoever. his play last year was his best stretch of his career and it was for half a season. we signed him till he is 36 years old and he will slow down at some point. the cap hit isn't horrible but my no means do i feel he gave us a bargain. i am glad he did not receive a NTC.

all in all, an okay deal to me. not bad but i do not think poile is a magician by any means on this one. he got term and money.
Like Flgatorguy says above, I'd be more concerned if Ellis' game was based on his physical assets. He's never been particularly mobile though, and his size obviously has never lended itself to a power game (though he can lay some decent hits at times). Ellis is a very cerebral player and it's the reason he has been so successful to this point in his career. It is also encouraging this is one of the facets of a player's game that isn't likely to significantly diminish.

I still feel ~$5.5M per is where he should be at, but that's an overpayment of $6M over the total 8 years. Considering cap and salary inflation, I'm not going to spend any time being disappointed about this.
 

predfan24

Registered User
Jul 12, 2006
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I don't understand the worry about term. The first half of his contract he will still be in his prime. It is generally looked at that he could of got more AAV on the open market. The AAV should look sweeter every year the cap goes up. It seems like to me for the first four or five years of this deal he should be fairly easy to move. Eight years is a long time. There is a good chance he won't be here. The bottom line is we got a core piece/asset locked up at a reasonable rate. I can't see how one could twist this into bad news.
 

NoNecksCurse

#164303
Oct 19, 2011
13,236
4,958
I don't understand the worry about term. The first half of his contract he will still be in his prime. It is generally looked at that he could of got more AAV on the open market. The AAV should look sweeter every year the cap goes up. It seems like to me for the first four or five years of this deal he should be fairly easy to move. Eight years is a long time. There is a good chance he won't be here. The bottom line is we got a core piece/asset locked up at a reasonable rate. I can't see how one could twist this into bad news.
very few are saying it's bad news.

i think we all agree this is either good or meh news. i don't think ellis finishes his career here anyways.

we have all been spoiled by poile signing defenseman to fantastic deals. this one being around market value for 8 years is kind of like ... WTF MATE?!

the key here is no NTC. gives the organization continued full flexibility going forward.
 

RickP

Registered User
Mar 14, 2017
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Great signing overall. 8 years is risky but that's the price to pay if you want to keep your UFAs. A 6.25 cap hit is much more reasonable than the 7+ we heard about from random sources.
 

PredsV82

Rest easy, 303, and thank you.
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Or we stall the Josi extension, or we expose Ekholm, etc...

If Josi is willing, the easiest thing to do is leave him unsigned until after the expansion draft. A dangerous game for both sides but worth it rather than losing another talented forward
 

PredsV82

Rest easy, 303, and thank you.
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Aug 13, 2007
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honestly not thrilled whatsoever. his play last year was his best stretch of his career and it was for half a season. we signed him till he is 36 years old and he will slow down at some point. the cap hit isn't horrible but my no means do i feel he gave us a bargain. i am glad he did not receive a NTC.

all in all, an okay deal to me. not bad but i do not think poile is a magician by any means on this one. he got term and money.

That's pretty much what you have to do with any decent player approaching UFA status. I agree this isnt a wizardrly deal but its definitely a good enough deal for a team in a Cup window. Folks need to remember Ellis signed for cheap on his last deal, too
 
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Drake744

#manrocket
Feb 12, 2010
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A.) He likely would've had several offers for more money on the open market.

B.) We'll likely be a bad team at some point over the course of his contract so we'll have chances to trade him for a pretty good haul if we're in a selling position. Of course that's if we really want to get rid of him. As long as he's still a solid player, I'm sure contending teams would love to outbid each other for him and his remaining term.

C.) Although he's arguably my favorite player, I have to say Arvidsson's term on his deal didn't match what he had shown production-wise up to that point. He had one good season. At least Ellis has been solid for several years.
 

Aardvarksson

gif spammer
Apr 21, 2017
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Ellis coming back from major injury and beasting for the rest of the season probably sold the front office on a long term deal. Preds were kind of slumping until he came back in IIRC. Either way glad to have him.
 

Marty Party

Back @ The Bridge
Mar 2, 2012
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ace.mu.nu
Happy for him and happy as a fan. Do I get a 4 sweater now? Jeez, for somebody who didn't like the Adidas on first viewing I sure am buying a lot of them.

Ekholm
Forsberg
Turris (during the November hot streak - should have waited I guess)
Saros - ?
Ellis - ?

Excited to get the season started and see the updated arena digs.
 

GeauxPreds1

Registered User
Jul 5, 2017
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Murfreesboro
Hate to highjack a Ellis thread but now ellis is signed can poile start negotiating a contract with fiala or does he have to wait? I think fiala will only get better with age. Lock him up 4.5×8 years ;)
 
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bdub24

iNsErT bAnNeR jOkE hErE
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Mar 4, 2013
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This seems like another unbelievable negotiation by GMDP and an complete loyalty move by team Ellis. Just wow on the deal.
 

KurtAngle

Registered User
Mar 31, 2016
250
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Decent deal only made by the NMC/NTC. I like him, but his injury history and size is a concern. Even if it was injury related I think his poor playoffs against Winnipeg is a concern.
 

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