Speculation: Elliotte Friedman: Rumblings of offer sheet to Zach Bogosian

[Sweech]

I like Luke Schenn from his Toronto days, but he's not worth Bogosian.

And he's most certainly not worth Kane.

 

[Jet]

Bogosian out scored Schenn by 3 points in 14 less games. Schenn's ppg in his best season is less than Bogosian's career average. Even if they're similar defensively its an absolute joke to pretend Schenn is even close to Bogosian offensively or as a puck mover.

You also have to consider that Bogo has had a bad wrist for at least a couple seasons, and I believe that it wasn't 100% last year either. I expect him to contribute even more offensively when that wrist is fully healed.

 

[Sweech]

You also have to consider that Bogo has had a bad wrist for at least a couple seasons, and I believe that it wasn't 100% last year either. I expect him to contribute even more offensively when that wrist is fully healed.

Maybe he'll actually hit the net now.

 

[Jet]

Maybe he'll actually hit the net now.

Wouldn't that be something

 

[Duke749]

The problem is, a defenseman who has the potential to be a perennial all-star and Norris candidate, a guy who is still very young and is committed to fitness and si strong as an ox, is a heck of a lot more hard to come by then a PPG, as great and valuable as they are.

Smart GM's don't let guys like that go for less than a Kings ransom. I think what we are trying to say what the Flyers would have to pay for Bogosian, they would be *understandably* unwilling too.

I am sure it's nowhere near unanimous, but I wouldn't trade Bogo for Giroux straight up.

In the last full season, there were only "11" players with at least a 1.00 PPG. 6 were wingers...

Unless you are suggesting Bogosian is a top 15 defenseman???

Scoring is much harder to come by in this age then people think.

 

[Sweech]

In the last full season, there were only "11" players with at least a 1.00 PPG. 6 were wingers...

Unless you are suggesting Bogosian is a top 15 defenseman???

Scoring is much harder to come by in this age then people think.

Well seeing as Voracek wasn't actually one of those ppg players (he was close) the point seems moot.

 

[Duke749]

Well seeing as Voracek wasn't actually one of those ppg players (he was close) the point seems mute.

I meant more in general. Doesn't render my point moot unless you perhaps don't agree with it. Obviously Vorecek wasn't one of those. That wasn't my point. My point, which is pretty straight forward, is a PPG winger is much rarer then a defenseman like Bogosian(who is overrated on this board).

 

[ps241]

We may need to breath a bit guys Voracek's previous best season was 50 points and although he is a solid player he is going to have to show us this season he can put up 82 for me to call him a PPG player. he put up the same Point total as Ladd who was a full beast last year but doing it in a shortened season and doing it over a full season is very different IMHO.

Heck of a player but let's see how this year goes.

 

[Duke749]

Agreed, Voracek is NOT a PPG player yet. He has to prove it first. Just like Bogosian needs to prove he's as good as half this board makes him out to be, because he still has plenty to prove.

 

[ps241]

I meant more in general. Doesn't render my point moot unless you perhaps don't agree with it. Obviously Vorecek wasn't one of those. That wasn't my point. My point, which is pretty straight forward, is a PPG winger is much rarer then a defenseman like Bogosian(who is overrated on this board).

I would agree a perennial PPG player is much rarer than a Bogosian type but that is a very small club that Voracek doesn't belong to yet (not saying you were putting Jakub there).

Bogosian is a pretty rare breed though Duke. #1 shut down defender (on our team), best PK defender, non 1st PP unit, and still puts up very good 5v5 pp/60 minutes. Zach is not without flaws, he is far from perfect, and although he may be a tad overrated on our board, he has yet to enter his prime And is already dam fine. He has put up 44 points in the 98 games since he has been in Winnipeg and if he continues to play the role he plays and put up 37 to 45 points a year that puts him in very small club because they don't grow big ass kicking, Scoring, shut down D on trees either.

 

[knorthern knight]

After what happened with Shea's weber last year, I get scared for any teams fans when a guy like this goes unsigned into the off season. You can't get his value back in trade really, and you might get saddled with a ridiculous contract to match.

Nashville was ####ed by Philadelphia. Nashville is going to be in cap hell about a decade from now, when he retires. Under the new CBA, that offer sheet is simply impossible...

• The maximum contract length you can offer to someone from another team is 7 years
• If the offer sheet is 6 or 7 years, the total money paid out is divided by 5, to determine the salary level for calculating draft-pick compensation
• The extent of allowable "back-diving" is greatly reduced. So forget $14 million each of the first 4 years, with much lower payout when he's approaching 40

Worst case scenarios, somebody offers

• $25,232,925 over 5 years = $5,046,585/year; we get 1st and 3rd; matching is a no brainer
• $33,643,905 over 5 years = $6,728,781/year; we get 1st and 2nd and 3rd; hmmmmm
• $42,054,880 over 5 years = $8,410,976/year; we get two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd; ya gotta be kiddin about matching; fuggedaboutit
• over $42,054,880 for 5 (or 6 or 7) years; we get four consecutive 1sts; I'd take it in a heartbeat

Get him signed quick so you don't have to worry about it.

We'd like to, but his agent is probably trying to wait us out.

 

[Sweech]

Nashville was ####ed by Philadelphia. Nashville is going to be in cap hell about a decade from now, when he retires. Under the new CBA, that offer sheet is simply impossible...

• The maximum contract length you can offer to someone from another team is 7 years
• If the offer sheet is 6 or 7 years, the total money paid out is divided by 5, to determine the salary level for calculating draft-pick compensation
• The extent of allowable "back-diving" is greatly reduced. So forget $14 million each of the first 4 years, with much lower payout when he's approaching 40

Worst case scenarios, somebody offers

• $25,232,925 over 5 years = $5,046,585/year; we get 1st and 3rd; matching is a no brainer
• $33,643,905 over 5 years = $6,728,781/year; we get 1st and 2nd and 3rd; hmmmmm
• $42,054,880 over 5 years = $8,410,976/year; we get two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd; ya gotta be kiddin about matching; fuggedaboutit
• over $42,054,880 for 5 (or 6 or 7) years; we get four consecutive 1sts; I'd take it in a heartbeat

We'd like to, but his agent is probably trying to wait us out.

Who knows how stupid the cap will be in a decade? They're already projecting the cap to jump to a possibly ridiculous amount of ~$80mil in two years time.

 

[Duke749]

I would agree a perennial PPG player is much rarer than a Bogosian type but that is a very small club that Voracek doesn't belong to yet (not saying you were putting Jakub there).

Bogosian is a pretty rare breed though Duke. #1 shut down defender (on our team), best PK defender, non 1st PP unit, and still puts up very good 5v5 pp/60 minutes. Zach is not without flaws, he is far from perfect, and although he may be a tad overrated on our board, he has yet to enter his prime And is already dam fine. He has put up 44 points in the 98 games since he has been in Winnipeg and if he continues to play the role he plays and put up 37 to 45 points a year that puts him in very small club because they don't grow big ass kicking, Scoring, shut down D that on trees either.

I wouldn't call Bogosian a "true #1 defenseman" until he puts up a season close to what Enstrom did when he was arguably a top 10 defenseman one year.

Now let me clarify about what I consider a #1 defenseman. I don't think there are 30 #1 D-men. I would say there's anywhere between 15-20, maybe a couple more #1 d-men in the league.

Enstrom, the last 2 years in Atlanta before he got injured, he was a #1 defenseman.

I would say Buff has been border line since he went to D. I know he finished 6th in the Norris voting the first year after moving to D, but Enstrom was noticeably better then him and did not get a single vote.

I would say right now we have 3 #2 defensemen(based on their play since moving to Winnipeg). Now imagine this happens... Enstrom gets back to his level of play before the injuries started, Buff comes into camp in shape and with more dedication, and Bogosian breaks out in a big way... We realistically, have a chance to have 3 #1 defensemen on our team.

We need to make sure we don't get too caught up in Bogo's physical abilities. He's got all kinds of talent. Good size, great skater, mean streak, offensive touch... potential to be the "ideal" defenseman you would want. Some need to just be a little patient because in time, he'll likely put it together, but let's not over estimate expectations.

How many defensemen have Norris "potential" in this league? If everything went right for one of Enstrom, Buff, or Bogosian, they'd be in the talk for the Norris. That's 3 on our team alone. There might be 10 in our new division alone.

 

[HannuJ]

if/when the deal gets done, i expect to see him getting around $5.5 mil/year for 5 years

 

[Duke749]

Who knows how stupid the cap will be in a decade? They're already projecting the cap to jump to a possibly ridiculous amount of ~$80mil in two years time.

THey're actually projecting it to easily exceed $100 million within the next decade.

 

[ps241]

I wouldn't call Bogosian a "true #1 defenseman" until he puts up a season close to what Enstrom did when he was arguably a top 10 defenseman one year.

Now let me clarify about what I consider a #1 defenseman. I don't think there are 30 #1 D-men. I would say there's anywhere between 15-20, maybe a couple more #1 d-men in the league.

Enstrom, the last 2 years in Atlanta before he got injured, he was a #1 defenseman.

I would say Buff has been border line since he went to D. I know he finished 6th in the Norris voting the first year after moving to D, but Enstrom was noticeably better then him and did not get a single vote.

I would say right now we have 3 #2 defensemen(based on their play since moving to Winnipeg). Now imagine this happens... Enstrom gets back to his level of play before the injuries started, Buff comes into camp in shape and with more dedication, and Bogosian breaks out in a big way... We realistically, have a chance to have 3 #1 defensemen on our team.

We need to make sure we don't get too caught up in Bogo's physical abilities. He's got all kinds of talent. Good size, great skater, mean streak, offensive touch... potential to be the "ideal" defenseman you would want. Some need to just be a little patient because in time, he'll likely put it together, but let's not over estimate expectations.

How many defensemen have Norris "potential" in this league? If everything went right for one of Enstrom, Buff, or Bogosian, they'd be in the talk for the Norris. That's 3 on our team alone. There might be 10 in our new division alone.

Good post Duke

To build on our civil discussion I would say my #1 hope is that Toby, Buff, and Bogo play north of 230 man games between them (76 game average). If we get that level even without Hainsey we will get close to similar top 4 D starts.

It has been frustrating watching Buff and Toby since they have arrived because they are just not healthy long enough together. they are both young enough men that it is within reason for them to have career years especially if Buff is lean and mean. I would be over the moon if this happened.

with Bogosian when I say # 1 I am referring to our shut down defender......1st choice over the boards when we are 3 v 5 and first guy over the boards when the other teams top player is on the ice (all things being equal). I have some fear he could be in a for a set back with Hainsey gone but on the flip side I wonder how he would have progressed with a Scuderi or Gorges type on his left side? My theory is the game will continue to slow down for Bogo over the next 5 seasons and as it does he will evolve into a top tier all purpose defender. I could be wrong but I will wait and see.

Trouba might have the best ceiling of all of the guys because allot of the things he does in his decision making at a very young age remind me of Alex Pietranglo. He is a very cool customer in his own zone and with his puck transition skills. I don't want to rush the kid, or get ahead of myself, but its hard to miss his unique skill set.

either way I am a Jets fan first and foremost and I am preying for a more healthy year from our big three on D

 

[Guerzy]

Larry Brooks ‏@NYP_Brooksie 37m

McDonagh's deal worth $4.7M per for 6 years. Fair number, very fair for Rangers...

Fantastic deal for the Rangers. If we could get Bogosian around this type of deal, that would be great.

 

[Bob E]

Fantastic deal for the Rangers. If we could get Bogosian around this type of deal, that would be great.

Agree, Guerzy.

Anything under $5 mill/yr would be a great result. Hopefully its for 6+ yrs.

 

[Kamo]

Agree, Guerzy.

Anything under $5 mill/yr would be a great result. Hopefully its for 6+ yrs.

Between Hamonic and McDonagh signing for what they did, this is great for a comparison to Bogosian. I would be thrilled if he signed for anything under 5mil/yr and 6+ years.

 

[Che vy Teemuchuk]

Wow. The news keeps getting better for Bogo's comparables.

 

[surixon]

Wow. The news keeps getting better for Bogo's comparables.

Yup, I have a hard time seeing how he can ask for anything over 5 now. I'd guess he signs an almost identical deal to McDonagh.

 

[Jet]

In the last full season, there were only "11" players with at least a 1.00 PPG. 6 were wingers...

Unless you are suggesting Bogosian is a top 15 defenseman???

Scoring is much harder to come by in this age then people think.

You need to take the long view.

Is Bogosian top 15 now? No. I do see him as being top 10 and even potentially top 5 and barring health issues staying there for several years. A ppg forward can only sustain that for a few seasons at best.

So, when you look at it with a longer perspective, you can see where I am coming from.

PS, a very important part of this equation is, Bogosian is 22. He is a baby in defenseman years.

 

[Whileee]

Yup, I have a hard time seeing how he can ask for anything over 5 now. I'd guess he signs an almost identical deal to McDonagh.

I think it depends on term, but I wouldn't be that surprised if he was at $5 million or above annually.