Speculation: Elliotte Friedman: Rumblings of offer sheet to Zach Bogosian

[Jtown]

You let me know when Luke Schenn does back to back seasons of top 30 in ES points per TOI while playing predominately in a shutdown role with some of the toughest minutes in the NHL.

If he was a forward that would be equivalent to similar assignment as Couturier but scoring rates as Voracek.

i was not comparing the two actually. Im saying that the trade offer the other poster made was equal in value to a luke schenn for Kane trade. Not nearly as fair eh.

However at looking at advanced stats , luke schenn had a much better year than bogosian. Schenn faced harder opponents, same ozone start percentage , and had a higher rel corsi. So in reality they are much closet than you think.

 

[surixon]

Jets fans definitely over rate Bogos worth, but Coburn and 1 of Voracek,,Simmer, Schenn or Couts would be a fair return. That being said, Jets should not trade him as imo he is their best d man and future #1.

Now that being said, it is insane to me that Chevy has not resigned him. He never should have sniffed rfa status as he could sign an offer sheet. I dont like playing hard ball with your top young player.

It might not be Chevy but Bogosian's agent that is holding things up as that seemed to be what happened last time he was up for renewal. I do find it interesting that barring an offer sheet this tactic (if his agent is infact doing it) may backfire on his client as most comparable defenseman have been locked up to good deals this summer.

 

[VictoriaJetsFan]

I think Flyers fans who continually try to lower Bogo's worth in an attempt to fleece us in a trade are getting tiresome...Get lost to the lot of you....good luck to Mason as your starting goalie and your garbage defence.

 

[bennysflyers16]

It might not be Chevy but Bogosian's agent that is holding things up as that seemed to be what happened last time he was up for renewal. I do find it interesting that barring an offer sheet this tactic (if his agent is infact doing it) may backfire on his client as most comparable defenseman have been locked up to good deals this summer.

Who is his agent ? I wonder if they are waiting to see what Petro gets. If Petro gets 7.5, Bogo could use the draft and age as a comparison to,ask for say 6. That could back fire tho as if Petro signs for 6.5, Bogo aint getting more than 5.

Just blows me away that those 2 remain unsigned.

 

[allan5oh]

Who is his agent ? I wonder if they are waiting to see what Petro gets. If Petro gets 7.5, Bogo could use the draft and age as a comparison to,ask for say 6. That could back fire tho as if Petro signs for 6.5, Bogo aint getting more than 5.

Just blows me away that those 2 remain unsigned.

No doubt it is Chevys #1 priority right now. If you look at our capgeek, we actually don't have a lot of room left. 19.7 million, and our top 4 RFAs could easily chew up 16.5-17 million of that and we're still only at 21 players.

If we get one or more offer sheets we could get in trouble very fast.

 

[bennysflyers16]

No doubt it is Chevys #1 priority right now. If you look at our capgeek, we actually don't have a lot of room left. 19.7 million, and our top 4 RFAs could easily chew up 16.5-17 million of that and we're still only at 21 players.

If we get one or more offer sheets we could get in trouble very fast.

What is your ideal contract for Bogo ? I would push 8 yrs , 42 mill. And go as high as 6.0 per if years came down.

These rumors of cap getting over 70 by next year im sure has these agents inflating their asking prices

 

[KenAF]

What is your ideal contract for Bogo ? I would push 8 yrs , 42 mill. And go as high as 6.0 per if years came down.

That sounds low to me. I think you are looking at closer to 8 yrs, $50M.

 

[allan5oh]

I don't think he can be offered over 8 years past July 5th, or maybe that's just for RFAs.

 

[DEANYOUNGBLOOD17]

7 yrs at 36mill or

8yrs at 44 mill for a 5.5 cap hit

 

[Aela*]

That's not the only possibility. It depends on the adjusted annual salary in the offer sheet...

Min | Max | Compensation
---|$1,110,249|No compensation
$1,110,250|$1,682,194|3rd
$1,682,195|$3,364,391|2nd
$3,364,392|$5,046,585|1st and 3rd

AHA! So we can still offer sheet Alzner up to 5m.

 

[Jet]

a ppg winger locked up for the next 3 years at a cheap cap hit?

I dont see that even being a realistic starting point.

The problem is, a defenseman who has the potential to be a perennial all-star and Norris candidate, a guy who is still very young and is committed to fitness and si strong as an ox, is a heck of a lot more hard to come by then a PPG, as great and valuable as they are.

Smart GM's don't let guys like that go for less than a Kings ransom. I think what we are trying to say what the Flyers would have to pay for Bogosian, they would be *understandably* unwilling too.

I am sure it's nowhere near unanimous, but I wouldn't trade Bogo for Giroux straight up.

 

[Jet]

Who is his agent ? I wonder if they are waiting to see what Petro gets. If Petro gets 7.5, Bogo could use the draft and age as a comparison to,ask for say 6. That could back fire tho as if Petro signs for 6.5, Bogo aint getting more than 5.

Just blows me away that those 2 remain unsigned.

I think they are talking a very calm calculated approach about this. They know offer sheets have always been very unlikely and are probably moreso this year with teams that are most likely to offer sheet being unable to due to cap restrictions. Plus there is the safety net of being able to match.

When you are talking long term deals to key players you are potentially crippling your team if you make a mistake. Look at all the stupid deals made to RFA's. I think Chevy wants to ensure that both player and team get fair value.

It drives some people mad here on HF that Cheveldayoff doesn't do everything like Yosemite Sam but I am really happy with it. Sure, from a purely entertainment standpoint, I'd love to see a wheeler/ dealer, but from a fan who wants a stable, long term winner, I much prefer this approach.

 

[bleedgreen]

After what happened with Shea's weber last year, I get scared for any teams fans when a guy like this goes unsigned into the off season. You can't get his value back in trade really, and you might get saddled with a ridiculous contract to match. In terms of moving him, I could see the team not wanting three higher end pay checks going to the d and with trouba coming along view Bogo as the one to possibly bring he best offensive return from their d. Winni fans have to see that it's a possibility to the rest of the world anyway.

I wouldn't trade him though, and as a canes fan here's the one situation I'm fine with offering skinner for over any of the other d we've talked about. I know skinner isn't what you guys want based on what I read here. I'm not offering or thinking it would get it done. Just saying I think his value is high enough to offer the best thing my team has to offer for it.

Get him signed quick so you don't have to worry about it.

 

[Jtown]

ok since bogo for giroux won't get it done what do you think we need to add to get it done?

 

[Jet]

ok since bogo for giroux won't get it done what do you think we need to add to get it done?

As you can see by my username and avatar I might not be the best guy to ask. He, along with Kane are untouchables on my team.

 

[garret9]

i was not comparing the two actually. Im saying that the trade offer the other poster made was equal in value to a luke schenn for Kane trade. Not nearly as fair eh.

However at looking at advanced stats , luke schenn had a much better year than bogosian. Schenn faced harder opponents, same ozone start percentage , and had a higher rel corsi. So in reality they are much closet than you think.

Erroneous. If you are going to compare players of different teams, use RelQoC. It correlates to true competition levels and amount of against top6 mins much better.

Bogosian faced tougher competition 1.115 versus Schenn's 0.683.
Also, ZS Adjusted Corsi% Bogosian 50.1% and Schenn 49.1%.

But, let's just stop here... wasn't my point anyways.

 

[Jtown]

Erroneous. If you are going to compare players of different teams, use RelQoC. It correlates to true competition levels and amount of against top6 mins much better.

Bogosian faced tougher competition 1.115 versus Schenn's 0.683.
Also, ZS Adjusted Corsi% Bogosian 50.1% and Schenn 49.1%.

But, let's just stop here... wasn't my point anyways.

right i factored in that bogosian was negative corsi and schenn was positive. When put together it is a very similar year.

 

[garret9]

If you really think if Luke Schenn is better than Bogosian ask Eric T.
He's much better with stats than you (or I) and he is a Flyers person so his answer will be less biased in your eyes.
Good luck.

 

[Jtown]

If you really think if Luke Schenn is better than Bogosian ask Eric T.
He's much better with stats than you (or I) and he is a Flyers person so his answer will be less biased in your eyes.
Good luck.

Im not saying he is better. on paper bogosians year is quite impressive. but faceing a qualcomp that high is more of a reflection of his 33 games. Over the course of 82 im sure his year would have reflected more closely what his two previous years have shown. D zone starts, highest comp, slight neg corsi which is great under those conditions.

 

[garret9]

Im not saying he is better. on paper bogosians year is quite impressive. but faceing a qualcomp that high is more of a reflection of his 33 games. Over the course of 82 im sure his year would have reflected more closely what his two previous years have shown. D zone starts, highest comp, slight neg corsi which is great under those conditions.

More reflection of usage actually, although not optimal usage.
Those previous seasons conditions were because Enstrom was still standing, so Noel split tough matchups between Tobi-Buff pair and Ron-Bogo pair, concentrating more on zone matching than competition.
When Enstrom was down Noel sheltered Byfuglien who was paired with Clitsome. This then shouldered more responsibility to Bogosian and Hainsey pairing. It was less to do with sampling effects than the fact that Bogosian did indeed shoulder more weight this season.
Whether or not he will in the future remains with Noel.

 

[Aela*]

I think a lot of us feel Bogo should be on the top pairing with Enstrom handling the tough matchups, and Buff and Clitsome (likely) being given the good offensive starts.

 

[garret9]

I don't. Not yet at least. From all indications on the number sides still has Tobi w/ Buff is still best... although there will be a time when that changes... maybe it'll be this season... maybe not...

 

[JetsHomer]

Bogosian out scored Schenn by 3 points in 14 less games. Schenn's ppg in his best season is less than Bogosian's career average. Even if they're similar defensively its an absolute joke to pretend Schenn is even close to Bogosian offensively or as a puck mover.

 

[ps241]

I like how Schenn progressed in Philly. Posters from allot of other teams would always want to trade for the "Schenn's" and usually Brayden would be the focal point and Luke was a throw in (or it felt that way to me) and I always felt that was a strong pair off assets and the price tag coming back would need to be big to get them both.

 

[tbcwpg]

I like Luke Schenn from his Toronto days, but he's not worth Bogosian.