Speculation: Eichel Megathread VII

[Dickie Dunn]

So far, Adams has been able to do a lot of things that previous GMs were not allowed to do by the Pegulas. That talks to how much the Pegulas trust Adams.

I doubt there is pressure to make a move this season from ownership. I think the next point in time where ownership might get involved is when we get closer to the $7.5M bonus payment next year.

Maybe but you don’t really believe they will just let him sit for an entire season do you? At minimum, they are going to have to at least give the appearance that any downtime next season is injury related and not pissing match. There is no way the business side of the Buffalo Sabres wants a drawn out dispute.

 

[Ice Mammoth]

Eichel to Rangers. I think this is a risky decision. Hockey Player AAV - $ 10.0M. Risk after surgery. What is the likelihood of getting a second injury? What are the consequences?
The Rangers will probably overpay. Teams play in the same conference.

There are three main options after the exchange (approximate):

- Eichel gets a second injury with more serious consequences.
The player is transferred to LTIR. The team records losses: financial (AAV) and loss of compensation. A contract is signed with another player.

- Eichel does not fully recover. The player continues to play in the NHL for a maximum of 50% of his capabilities.
The consequences of the operation began to manifest themselves after the exchange.
Worst option for a club. The player can play. His contract becomes similar to that of Jeff Skinner.
The team records losses: financial (AAV), loss of compensation, financial (Projected Cap Hit). The player continues to play for the Rangers.

- Eichel is recovering almost completely. The player is picking up his previous form. Hockey Player AAV - $ 10.0M. The risk of re-injury - cannot disappear.

New York Rangers - projected cap hit: $ 67,837,302. No contract signed with Shesterkin. If after the season Zibanejad and Strome leave (AAV about $ 10.0M), you won't be able to save. The team will sign contracts with Fox and Kravtsov. Additionally, sign a new contract with Kakko. After two seasons - new contracts: Lafrenière, Miller, Chytil. I am not counting some of the players.
Add the amount of the Shesterkin contract to $ 67,837,302 - you will receive a projected cap space of less than: $ 9,000,000.
This does not include new contracts: Kakko, Lafrenière, Miller, Chytil, replacements of Zibanejad and Strome.
There are additional savings of course:
- Exchanges.
- Dead Cap (2021/22 $4,427,778 – 2022/23 $3,427,778 – 2023/24 $0)

The arrival of a completely healthy Eichel will give:
- Strengthening the top three.
- Weakening the depth of the team composition.
What will outweigh. I do not know.

I think Leon Draisaitl has the best contract (all factors taken into account) right now.
My personal C rating for the Rangers (takes into account AAV, the duration of the current contract and the forecast of the next contract, the probability of a deal, various strategies):
1. Nick Suzuki
2. Pierre-Luc Dubois
3. Christian Dvorak
4. Anthony Cirelli
Place in my personal rating - Jack Eichel 5-8.

Chris Drury should consider the need for Jack Eichel to join the team. This is a high risk trade.
Even if you pay two teams to keep salaries (@ $ 1.5M ret + @ $ 1.5M ret), questions remain.
AAV gets much better But the loss of compensation (in the event of a player's injury) increases.
We will wait for the end of the series “Jack Eichel strikes back".

 

[Jim Bob]

Maybe but you don’t really believe they will just let him sit for an entire season do you? At minimum, they are going to have to at least give the appearance that any downtime next season is injury related and not pissing match. There is no way the business side of the Buffalo Sabres wants a drawn out dispute.

They also don't want to trade Eichel for pennies on the dollar.

I don't see the owners forcing a bad trade this season. If they get involved, it will be to figure out the surgery situation.

 

[Ace Card Bedard]

Adams is in a tough spot.

Eichel needs surgery.
Artificial Disk Replacement or Spinal Fusion?
One has never been done on an NHL player before (or NFL, NBA, etc. as far as we know)
The other may lead to him ending his career in 4-5 years due to nerve damage, stiffness, adjacent segment degeneration, etc.

So what team is going to offer much at this point with Eichel's career in jeopardy?

 

[WiHockeyGuy]

I'm struggling to see the consequence if they run out of that runway

Exactly.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

They also don't want to trade Eichel for pennies on the dollar.

I don't see the owners forcing a bad trade this season. If they get involved, it will be to figure out the surgery situation.

I'm not sure they are in control of what they want anymore. If Eichel never plays there again (which at least seems possible) there is no way to improve the offers. Why would they get better?

 

[57special]

The problem is that there is no reason for the offers to get better the longer this goes. Things just get uglier and uglier for Adams, not better the longer this goes and pretty soon, no one will be able to afford taking back $10m w/o moving out contracts. So instead of futures, Adams will have to take on money. The "let him rot" discussion is ridiculous....no team wants that headache. His ownership will pull the rug out from under him before they allow an entire season of "what's up with Eichel?" everyday.

That already happened when FA hit. Either Adams or another team has to change their mind on what Eichel is worth, but until the season starts and a key, long term injury happens to a star forward I don't see teams offering something drastically different. I actually see teams offering less the longer this goes on.

 

[Mr Positive]

Adams is in a tough spot.

Eichel needs surgery.
Artificial Disk Replacement or Spinal Fusion?
One has never been done on an NHL player before (or NFL, NBA, etc. as far as we know)
The other may lead to him ending his career in 4-5 years due to nerve damage, stiffness, adjacent segment degeneration, etc.

So what team is going to offer much at this point with Eichel's career in jeopardy?

Well apparently the therapy angle was recommended above that. He would be getting it now. So, Adams might just wait this out so long that Eichel doesn't need surgery anymore.

 

[Fatass]

They also don't want to trade Eichel for pennies on the dollar.

I don't see the owners forcing a bad trade this season. If they get involved, it will be to figure out the surgery situation.

Sabres can’t force Jack to have a surgery he doesn’t want. Jack can’t force the Sabres to support his chosen operation. Jack, because of his neck injury can’t play and will be on LTI until he has surgery and recovers. Sabres either trade Jack for a mostly conditional return, or he collects his pay while on LTI.

 

[Jim Bob]

I'm not sure they are in control of what they want anymore. If Eichel never plays there again (which at least seems possible) there is no way to improve the offers. Why would they get better?

Eichel may have no other choice but to play his way out of Buffalo.

 

[Jim Bob]

Sabres can’t force Jack to have a surgery he doesn’t want. Jack can’t force the Sabres to support his chosen operation. Jack, because of his neck injury can’t play and will be on LTI until he has surgery and recovers. Sabres either trade Jack for a mostly conditional return, or he collects his pay while on LTI.

Eichel is too proud to sit at home and collect checks for five years.

Given the Sabres are just starting another tear down rebuild, they have nothing but time to wait for Eichel to get healthy and rehab both his neck and his trade value.

 

[Fatass]

That already happened when FA hit. Either Adams or another team has to change their mind on what Eichel is worth, but until the season starts and a key, long term injury happens to a star forward I don't see teams offering something drastically different. I actually see teams offering less the longer this goes on.

I agree, but the complication with Eichel is he is already a key player with a 10 mil cap hit who has a long term injury. So any team losing a star to injury will not look to Jack as a replacement.

 

[Jim Bob]

That already happened when FA hit. Either Adams or another team has to change their mind on what Eichel is worth, but until the season starts and a key, long term injury happens to a star forward I don't see teams offering something drastically different. I actually see teams offering less the longer this goes on.

If only there was a GM that has been kicking the tires on Eichel that is known for changing his mind and making a deal when everyone thought he was out...

 

[Techcoockie]

I think Leon Draisaitl has the best contract (all factors taken into account) right now.
My personal C rating for the Rangers (takes into account AAV, the duration of the current contract and the forecast of the next contract, the probability of a deal, various strategies):
1. Nick Suzuki

Just for fun and curiousity, let's say Suzuki wants to play in NY and Montreal tries to trade him there.

What would be your offer for Suzuki to NYR ?
I remember 2 years ago I proposed Suzuki for Miller when both didn't play in the NHL

 

[Fatass]

Eichel is too proud to sit at home and collect checks for five years.

Given the Sabres are just starting another tear down rebuild, they have nothing but time to wait for Eichel to get healthy and rehab both his neck and his trade value.

The rehab was already tried. It wasn’t successful. Likely the issue now is Jack is struggling with continued symptoms, which can be rather nasty.

 

[Dickie Dunn]

Eichel may have no other choice but to play his way out of Buffalo.

So you aren't buying that he medically cannot safely play?

 

[Old Navy Goat]

Who'd a thunk that Buffalo going into a rebuild would worry about a 10mil contract hit that's in LTIR and covered by insurance. Assets to speed the rebuild would be nice but this isn't impeding Terry's ability to afford a new tender for his yacht.

The power move by Jack's agents have alienated a large part of the fan base and bought KA more time to wait out better offers

 

[57special]

I agree, but the complication with Eichel is he is already a key player with a 10 mil cap hit who has a long term injury. So any team losing a star to injury will not look to Jack as a replacement.

Good point. I guess i am assuming that some resolution to Eichel's neck treatment will be made sooner rather than later, and that he will be ready to play. Just having him sit for months with no procedure being done is about as stupid and self destructive of a thing that the Sabres can do.

Of course, if he has the spinal fusion then it will take much longer for him to be ready to play. Even if BUF doesn't agree with the other option, you would think that they would let him do that so that he can be ready to play sooner, making him more valuable for the acquiring club.

 

[krt88nc]

Eichel for Logan Mailloux.

Take it or leave it.

Ok we will leave it

 

[57special]

If only there was a GM that has been kicking the tires on Eichel that is known for changing his mind and making a deal when everyone thought he was out...

No, he's too busy signing ex Pens. The days of being taken advantage of by Sabres GM's is over!

 

[Jim Bob]

So you aren't buying that he medically cannot safely play?

If he still needs surgery, I do wonder why he's skating with a bunch of other players right now.

But, even if he does need surgery, it may be at the point where the only way Adams gets the offer he will accept is for Eichel to have surgery, rehab, and get back in the lineup and rehab his trade value.

 

[Shark Finn]

Reminds me of the Luongo saga back in the day. How many threads that took, like 22?

 

[Jim Bob]

No, he's too busy signing ex Pens. The days of being taken advantage of by Sabres GM's is over!

You are thinking of a different GM than Friedman was talking about on his pod.

 

[Dr Quincy]

Well apparently the therapy angle was recommended above that. He would be getting it now. So, Adams might just wait this out so long that Eichel doesn't need surgery anymore.

The "rest period" ended more than a month ago. If rest and rehab were going to fix it, it would be fixed.

 

[Hint1k]

I wonder how long it takes for Hollywood to start making a movie out of this mess?