Edmonton Oilers 2015-16 Season in Review

[Ferocian]

Year Over Year, 2015-16 vs. 2014-15:

• Points 70 vs. 62. Difference = +8
• Wins 31 vs. 24. Difference = +7
• Losses 43 vs. 44. Difference = -1
• Regulation or Overtime Wins (ROW) 27 vs. 19 = +8
• Overtime Losses (aka "the loser point") 8 vs. 14. Difference = -6
• Goals for 203 vs. 198. Difference = +5
• Goals against 245 vs. 283. Difference = -38

The biggest differences we see here are in the ROW stat and the goals against. Todd McLellan stated as his goal at the start of the year to get the players to stay in games for longer, and I'd say the lowered goals against would argue that was successful to at least some degree. Also, having more ROW's and less OTL's means that they stuck with it more when they made it to overtime, pushing through for more wins instead of just being content with the 1 point.

Injuries:

Man games lost 368 (2014-15 was 260 for a difference of +108. 41.5% increase)

Notable injuries = Jordan Eberle (Oct 8-Nov 3), Connor McDavid (Nov 6-Jan 23), Nail Yakupov (Nov 27-Jan 12), Benoit Pouliot (Dec 2-17, Mar 1-SeasonEnd), Brandon Davidson (Dec 2-4, Dec 21-29, Jan 23-Feb2, Mar 8-SeasonEnd), RNH (Jan 19-Mar 10, Mar 24-28), Eric Gryba (Feb 18-SeasonEnd), Justin Schultz (Oct 27-Nov 27), Andrew Ference (basically the whole season but officially Dec. 6-SeasonEnd[career?]), Oscar Klefbom (Dec 14-SeasonEnd). Full list at http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=782127

Injury Impact to Team (IIT); Edmonton “leads” the NHL in this category. IIT is calculated by taking a player’s average time on ice and his relative corsi-for, then using those as determining factors for how much them missing games hurts their team. Oscar Klefbom is 2nd in the NHL in this category for skaters, 3rd if you include goalies (Carey Price). Connor McDavid is 9th, RNH is 12th, Benoit Pouliot is 35th, Eric Gryba is 40th, Nail Yakupov is 64th, Brandon Davidson 77th, Jordan Eberle 91st. Schultz and Korpikoski’s injuries didn’t crack the top 100.

Consider the impact of this. If Edmonton hadn't lead the NHL in IIT, (they would've in MGL too if not for Toronto holding injured contracts on their books in exchange for draft picks, NJD were ahead of them too, not sure what their situation is, I don't follow the Devils) what would this season have looked like? For example, if we simplify things, during the stretch McDavid was out, Edmonton had 12 1-goal losses. CMD averages about 1 point per game, so you can assume he's worth approximately 1 goal per game. In other words, if he'd been healthy, the Oilers can reasonably have been expected to finish the season with 82 points instead of 70. That looks a hell of a lot better from the perspective of the rest of the league and their fans. It would've meant they were in the playoff hunt until right up near the end of the season.

Players:

• The biggest disappointments would have to be Schultz and Lander. I put Lander over Schultz in that category because even though Schultz was more disappointing, none of us were surprised by the results. Lander on the other hand after a great finish to last season and a strong preseason we hoped for more from.
  
• Taylor Hall had an incredible start, but I suspect he had an undiagnosed concussion from the Gudbranson hit on Jan. 10th and his timing, passing, puck control and shot generation were all affected.
  
• Leon Draisaitl also had an incredible start to his season. In fact, he outproduced Hall over several stretches. I suspect that his production fell off because after last season his goal was basically to join the club and be a contributing member of the team. I don't think he was expecting to possibly become the leading scorer, so each time he got close to Hall's point total he relaxed. When Hall stopped producing, so did Leon.
  
• McDavid's 5 pt. night against Toronto and passing off to Eberle so he could get his first career hat trick instead of McDavid.
  
• Kassian for Scrivens trade, Maroon for a 4th and an ECHL prospect trade. These were great. They were the type of players that the team needed to fill out the roster (do you really want to require Eberle or RNH to have to eat crosschecks in front of the net or big hits in the corner?). Guys with big, sturdy frames who will bruise, not break when involved with the rougher aspects of play that the game requires in order to be successful. The Maroon trade especially was an absolute steal, and he's fit in so well.
  
• The Griffin Reinhart saga. When he was first picked up, this was in my opinion an overpay. Yes he was drafted 4th overall and we gave up 16th and 33rd to get him, and if it's in the same draft, you make that trade 8 times out of 10. However, not all drafts are equal and the 2015 draft was a deeper draft year than Reinhart's draft year. Giving up those two picks could get you usually a pretty decent roster player, you usually wouldn't give that up for a prospect. However I've taken a wait and see approach with the player, we'll only know how this pans out over time. When this season started, the way that he played was a disappointment. When he went to the AHL, it wasn't much better. Then, he did start to play better. He got called up, and didn't play super great for his first few games, but once again he got better. By the end of the season he was playing pretty solidly.
  
• Ryan Nugent-Hopkins's decreased production and the factors that went into it. I think a big part of this was his November illness that he continued to play through. He only missed one game but he was sick for most of that month. Once he was finally healthy as far as illness went, he went down with injury. Rough season for him and we can reasonably expect more from him in future seasons.
  
• Nail Yakupov's situation; I think Kreuger essentially ruined him for future coaches. Yakupov felt very appreciated under Kreuger and I think there's something to that. One thing I think Kreuger had going for him is he knew which shape went in which hole. For example I think Yakupov is a far more natural trigger man on the powerplay than Eberle is. Since Eakins, Yakupov has been bounced around the lineup. I'm someone who thinks that if there's an off-ice problem, ie they don't like his attitude, it shouldn't affect what happens on-ice as their whole job as professionals is to win hockey games. That's not to say I'm absolving Yakupov of blame for his situation. He could definitely be more.... obedient? But it would help that process if he was used in his areas of strength instead of trying to have him fit into a generic mold.
  
• Brandon Davidson and Jordan Oesterle, from relative obscurity to key components of the Oilers blueline. I like the story of both of these guys. It's slightly different because of how Davidson started the year, essentially being seen as an unfortunate extra on the roster that couldn't be sent down. As everyone knows, he earned his playing time gradually over the season, working his way up to even having first pairing minutes on some nights. Oesterle was a bit different in that he came up later in the season but all he's done since he arrived is play to a consistently high level and make smart plays. That was desperately needed on the right side of our D corps and its been very appreciated by fans.
  
• Waiver wire pickups. Clendenning, Pardy and Cracknell. Out of these I believe Clendenning got the most playtime but I thought that Pardy was the best player. The management did a good job of grabbing players off the wire that contributed towards team needs and avoiding players that would just be deadweight.
  
• McDavid's race for the calder. CMD will likely not get the calder unfortunately. Most of the voters are out east and do not watch Oilers games. That means that McDavid needed to pack some highlight reels to get their attention, which means taking over some games down the stretch. His 3pt night vs Vancouver would've helped but I doubt it will have been enough to unseat Gostisbehere. Unfortunately because of the way Calder voting works, I think for the people casting ballots it will be in their minds between Gostisbehere and McDavid but when they vote 1-2-3 the voting will come down as Gostisbehere, Panarin, McDavid. Just an artifact of the journalists wanting to give a tip of the hat to Panarin but not wanting him to win b/c of his 6 years of pro experience. The first place voting will definitely be Gostisbehere followed by McDavid, but because everyone will have put Panarin second, that's how the voting will turn out that way.
  
• Taylor Hall's outspoken attitude; is it really him with the problem or is he just trying to be a leader and taking other people's problems onto himself?
  
• The seeming referee bias this season. Was it because Edmonton wasn't supposed to be a playoff team? Did coaching staff just need to try to hold the refs more accountable? Something else? Especially when it came to Darnell Nurse. For some reason penalties were called on him that most other players don't get called for. Perhaps it's because he does the same things but more forcefully, or perhaps he already has a "reputation". Just look at the opposite side of the spectrum, refs realized Nazem Kadri was drawing a ton of penalties and basically decided any infraction against Kadri would no longer be called by the end of the season. What happened to refs trying to call an unbiased game? Is this basically acting out over the coaches challenge?

[mod]

If anyone has any questions or wants clarification on any point I brought up here, I welcome it. It's hard to have so many different subjects but still make an article short enough to be readable. If you've made it this far, thanks for your time and I look forward to any comments you might have.

I've missed something and this is in violation of something let me know and I'll happily edit this to remove the link. If not, and you guys listen to the recording I made, I hope you enjoy it. I put a lot of thought and preparation into it and it's my first recording.

Click to read more...

 

[MPStoEberletoHall*]

Great read

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

Solid post.

If Hall had an undiagnosed concussion, that's really, really bad that he was playing. It could affect in him in the long run.

Not sure if you're being sarcastic about Leon. He's not going to take it easy because he's getting close to Hall in points (and he was never all that close).

Agreed with everything else.

 

[Beerfish]

"Taylor Hall had an incredible start, but I suspect he had an undiagnosed concussion from the Gudbranson hit on Jan. 10th and his timing, passing, puck control and shot generation were all affected."

For gods sake.

 

[Ferocian]

Nah I wasn't being sarcastic about Leon. I can't necessarily attribute why it was that he had some mini slumps during the season except that I noticed it was each time he got close to Hall's point total. He won the memorial cup MVP and I don't think that happens if you can't handle being "the man" and I think it shows he's a big game player who can handle the pressure. So my best guess was that because of how poorly his half season in the NHL went last year, he simply came into this season with the goal of being a regular contributor. Otherwise I have a hard time explaining his decreased production aside from the obvious; which was Hall's decreased production and them playing on the same line.

[mod]

 

[HotToddy75]

The injuries cannot be understated.

The defense had no depth to begin with. Injuries collapsed the house of cards. The majority of the season was played with an AHL calibre of defense.

The difference lies not in the ability to defend. An AHL dman can defend well at the NHL level. What sets players apart is the skill in which pucks can be either transported or passed up ice.

With an AHL calibre defense, McD, Hall etc. were limited in the type of offense they could generate. Defending teams could count on little meaningful help from the Oiler's D.

My guess is that Chiarelli can fix the defense by adding just one dman. The criteria must be:
- top minute guy
- puck mover
- puck transporter
- able to do those things while paired with a #5 or #6 d partner

Guys like Doughty, Pronger, etc. have the ability to not only be the #1 guy, but to do while paired with a dreg partner.

My guess is that Chiarelli makes a trade for a new #1 dman and trades away draft picks and one of the young non-core forwards. He then signs Demers.

Next year, the d corps rolls with:

NewGuy - Dreg
Klef - Sekera
Davidson - Fayne

In the abscence of injuries, this is a solid group. In the absence of injuries, it also leaves somewhat tested guys like Reinhart, Nurse and Oesterle to call up from Bakersfield and fill in.

TL;DR - When the Oilers make the playoffs next year, it will be because the d-corps were not hit with injuries.

 

[Ferocian]

What sets players apart is the skill in which pucks can be either transported or passed up ice.

With an AHL calibre defense, McD, Hall etc. were limited in the type of offense they could generate. Defending teams could count on little meaningful help from the Oiler's D.

I agree, and I think as good as Hall is, he would've been even better if he wasn't having to continually carry the puck past the entire opposing team in order to be able to generate any offense. I can only imagine how pleasantly surprised he and McDavid are going to be if they get a defenceman who is either a good enough passer or skater that those other two guys no longer need to be the only solid option to get the puck from their end into the attacking zone.

 

[Aceboogie]

Brandon Davidson and Jordan Oesterle, from relative obscurity to key components of the Oilers blueline. I like the story of both of these guys. It's slightly different because of how Davidson started the year, essentially being seen as an unfortunate extra on the roster that couldn't be sent down. As everyone knows, he earned his playing time gradually over the season, working his way up to even having first pairing minutes on some nights. Oesterle was a bit different in that he came up later in the season but all he's done since he arrived is play to a consistently high level and make smart plays. That was desperately needed on the right side of our D corps and its been very appreciated by fans.

Best part of season apart from McDavid. Davidson became a legit #4 in my eyes and Osterle a legit bottom pairing guy are subperb call up option. We are finally producing D boys. Klefbom, Davidson, Osterle. Potentially Musil and Simpson

Re: Hall and Leon. I think Hall just went thru a dry spell and had some confidence issues because of it that made it longer. Leon looked gassed after game 30

Otherwise it was a dissappointing season. Not blaming this all on injuries, because even when healthy we didnt look tremendous. But injuries played a massive, massive role.

 

[Ferocian]

If anyone can tell me how to do the "unordered list" feature where it actually puts a space between the items on the list, I'll edit the players section to actually make it a little more legible.

 

[TheRebuild]

The injuries cannot be understated.

The defense had no depth to begin with. Injuries collapsed the house of cards.

I don't get this team and it's obsession with injuries. In 2009-10 the Oilers lost 530 man games due to injury and had 10 different guys that were shut down including Hemsky, Khabibulin, Smid, Gagner and Souray. This year, 368 man games lost. The team even keeps track of this stat! And posts it on its website! Most teams don't do that, and if they do, only for the current year (not a history going back 6 years). Type "NHL man games lost" into google, and the fourth website listed is "Oilers Injuries: Lead NHL in Man Games Lost". At this point, It's just starting to feel like an excuse to me.

 

[oljimmy]

during the stretch McDavid was out, Edmonton had 12 1-goal losses. CMD averages about 1 point per game, so you can assume he's worth approximately 1 goal per game. In other words, if he'd been healthy, the Oilers can reasonably have been expected to finish the season with 82 points instead of 70.

The problem with this kind of reasoning, as others have pointed out, is that a player's position isn't a black hole, it's filled with someone else who produces. Now, that player wouldn't have produced at McD's rate, but he would have produced a little bit, offsetting the loss.

Also, equating a point with a goal makes no sense, right? Every goal generates 2.7 points on average (1 goal, 1.7 assists). So even if McD is good for a point a game, that means he's generating 1/2.7=0.37 goals per game, not 1. My sense is that all of this adds up to him 'making the difference' in 3 of those 12 one-goal games, which actually only adds 4-5 points to the season total (b/c some of those extra McD goals only result in shootout or OT losses). So, that moves us from 29th to maybe 28th, still a dismal season.

 

[Mc5RingsAndABeer]

I don't get this team and it's obsession with injuries. In 2009-10 the Oilers lost 530 man games due to injury and had 10 different guys that were shut down including Hemsky, Khabibulin, Smid, Gagner and Souray. This year, 368 man games lost. The team even keeps track of this stat! And posts it on its website! Most teams don't do that, and if they do, only for the current year (not a history going back 6 years). Type "NHL man games lost" into google, and the fourth website listed is "Oilers Injuries: Lead NHL in Man Games Lost". At this point, It's just starting to feel like an excuse to me.

That season the Oilers actually did do so much worse than expected due to injuries.

But it's not man games lost where it really shows - it's when you adjust for quality that the "excuse" becomes legitimate.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I don't get this team and it's obsession with injuries. In 2009-10 the Oilers lost 530 man games due to injury and had 10 different guys that were shut down including Hemsky, Khabibulin, Smid, Gagner and Souray. This year, 368 man games lost. The team even keeps track of this stat! And posts it on its website! Most teams don't do that, and if they do, only for the current year (not a history going back 6 years). Type "NHL man games lost" into google, and the fourth website listed is "Oilers Injuries: Lead NHL in Man Games Lost". At this point, It's just starting to feel like an excuse to me.

Well, think of it this way. We lost more man-games from just our defencemen then the Rangers did for their entire team.

There's using it as an excuse, and there's 'guys, seriously, let's do something about the angry coven of witches living under the locker room'.

Solid post BTW Ferocian.

 

[Lacaar]

Pretty standard Oiler season.

The turning point of the season was Halloween. Blew a game they should have won.
dropped to 4-8. The Oilers owned the flames that game. Talbot tossed it away.

From there we went on our standard Novemeber of failure that always puts the nail in the coffin on the season.

It's always a bit different how it happens but the results are the same.

Get ***** kicked in first few games of the season.
Win a few to close out October to make it seem like there's a hint of a chance.
Completely fall off the rails and season over sometime in November.

I don't care what happens this summer.
I predict this team comes out of October next year with a losing record.
And it's all over but the crying at the end of November.

Whatever has to happen to make that true will.. Injuries.. some ******** schedule , arena not ready and playing away the whole first month and a bit.

I've seen 4 number 1 picks come here.. 1 generational.. and the same result.
There is no player.. no gm... no coach that can cure what ails this team. I don't even know what ails them.

I do know.. they'll suck balls.

 

[BlackDogg]

I don't think the officiating can be understated either. This has to have cost the Oilers at least 5-6 points in the standings and some confidence as well.

Is it the team and the draft pick luck?
The bias towards southern teams?
They hate taylor hall for complaining too much?

Not sure.

 

[Shanahanigans]

The biggest reason for our lack of success, again, was not having quality defensemen in the lineup. It's a double whammy, because not only can dmen help in the goals against department, they are huge getting the puck up to forwards. On a team that succeeds off the rush like the Oilers, the lack of any puck moving Dmen is a death sentence. I expect Klefbom and Davidson to contribute and develop in that regard as they are still young, but it is imperative for Chiarelli to bring in guys who can get the puck up to our forwards. Watching a Calgary game, Gaudreau seems to get like 5 or 6 odd man rushes a game, just based off quick stretch passes from his dmen. Same for other teams. In a league this fast, quick transition is SO important.

 

[Delicious Pancakes]

Best part of season apart from McDavid. Davidson became a legit #4 in my eyes and Osterle a legit bottom pairing guy are subperb call up option. We are finally producing D boys. Klefbom, Davidson, Osterle. Potentially Musil and Simpson

Re: Hall and Leon. I think Hall just went thru a dry spell and had some confidence issues because of it that made it longer. Leon looked gassed after game 30

Otherwise it was a dissappointing season. Not blaming this all on injuries, because even when healthy we didnt look tremendous. But injuries played a massive, massive role.

I agree. Part of what was making Leon successful at the beginning of the year was that he was keeping his legs moving which was allowing him to challenge defenders better and gain that extra hundredth of a second to make passes. Certainly later in the year after he started looking tired his passing wasn't as good which limited his effectiveness, and he wasn't driving the net near as much.

 

[Aceboogie]

I agree. Part of what was making Leon successful at the beginning of the year was that he was keeping his legs moving which was allowing him to challenge defenders better and gain that extra hundredth of a second to make passes. Certainly later in the year after he started looking tired his passing wasn't as good which limited his effectiveness, and he wasn't driving the net near as much.

I think his last offseason was spent mostly on skating (which worked great) and much less on conditioning. Plus I mean dude went from NHL to WHL to WHL finals to Mem Cup. Thats about 93 games.

Hopefully this offseason he put sin work to get more conditioned

 

[Cawz]

The injuries cannot be understated.

The defense had no depth to begin with. Injuries collapsed the house of cards. The majority of the season was played with an AHL calibre of defense.

The difference lies not in the ability to defend. An AHL dman can defend well at the NHL level. What sets players apart is the skill in which pucks can be either transported or passed up ice.

With an AHL calibre defense, McD, Hall etc. were limited in the type of offense they could generate. Defending teams could count on little meaningful help from the Oiler's D.

Yup, totally agree, especially with the house of cards comment.

Much of the offense had to be started by the forwards in the d-zone. Thanks to the speed of the forwards they had some success, but could you imagine if they actually had good d with a breakout pass?

 

[Ferocian]

Also, equating a point with a goal makes no sense, right? Every goal generates 2.7 points on average (1 goal, 1.7 assists). So even if McD is good for a point a game, that means he's generating 1/2.7=0.37 goals per game, not 1. My sense is that all of this adds up to him 'making the difference' in 3 of those 12 one-goal games, which actually only adds 4-5 points to the season total (b/c some of those extra McD goals only result in shootout or OT losses). So, that moves us from 29th to maybe 28th, still a dismal season.

Fair enough, but it's not like he was the only one who was injured. One of the biggest gripes from the management this season was that they never got to see a healthy Oilers roster on the ice. We could do a different example where we accounted for all of the one goal games, all of the players that were out during them, and how many goals they account for and look at how many games there were where the outcome would reasonably be affected and look at the ending point total then. The point is, people so readily discount injuries as a factor simply because they're used to them.

Edit: I'm editing this to say that you straight up found a flaw in my reasoning and I actually appreciate that. I'll be able to be more accurate in future.

 

[Ferocian]

I think his last offseason was spent mostly on skating (which worked great) and much less on conditioning.

Actually apparently last summer's offseason he worked out his legs every single day.

I'd have a hard time attributing all of his slowness in the second half of this season to just conditioning though. He didn't look super tired to me. It was almost like he was spending a lot more time watching the play and waiting for it to come to him rather than pushing to make things happen like he did at the start of the year.

 

[BlackDogg]

during the stretch McDavid was out, Edmonton had 12 1-goal losses. CMD averages about 1 point per game, so you can assume he's worth approximately 1 goal per game. In other words, if he'd been healthy, the Oilers can reasonably have been expected to finish the season with 82 points instead of 70.

The problem with this kind of reasoning, as others have pointed out, is that a player's position isn't a black hole, it's filled with someone else who produces. Now, that player wouldn't have produced at McD's rate, but he would have produced a little bit, offsetting the loss.

Also, equating a point with a goal makes no sense, right? Every goal generates 2.7 points on average (1 goal, 1.7 assists). So even if McD is good for a point a game, that means he's generating 1/2.7=0.37 goals per game, not 1. My sense is that all of this adds up to him 'making the difference' in 3 of those 12 one-goal games, which actually only adds 4-5 points to the season total (b/c some of those extra McD goals only result in shootout or OT losses). So, that moves us from 29th to maybe 28th, still a dismal season.

Ahhh so much math. Nobody said there'd be math here.

But makes sense. Good post.

 

[Soundwave]

Pretty standard Oiler season.

The turning point of the season was Halloween. Blew a game they should have won.
dropped to 4-8. The Oilers owned the flames that game. Talbot tossed it away.

From there we went on our standard Novemeber of failure that always puts the nail in the coffin on the season.

It's always a bit different how it happens but the results are the same.

Get ***** kicked in first few games of the season.
Win a few to close out October to make it seem like there's a hint of a chance.
Completely fall off the rails and season over sometime in November.

I don't care what happens this summer.
I predict this team comes out of October next year with a losing record.
And it's all over but the crying at the end of November.

Whatever has to happen to make that true will.. Injuries.. some ******** schedule , arena not ready and playing away the whole first month and a bit.

I've seen 4 number 1 picks come here.. 1 generational.. and the same result.
There is no player.. no gm... no coach that can cure what ails this team. I don't even know what ails them.

I do know.. they'll suck balls.

They were technically in a playoff spot in mid-December ... of course that just happens to be the last game Klefbom played. His injury = end of any push, though I think the one game where they were up on Tampa by 2-3 goals and went on to lose at Rexall was kinda the nail in the coffin for a playoff push.

 

[Ferocian]

Also, equating a point with a goal makes no sense, right? Every goal generates 2.7 points on average (1 goal, 1.7 assists). So even if McD is good for a point a game, that means he's generating 1/2.7=0.37 goals per game, not 1. My sense is that all of this adds up to him 'making the difference' in 3 of those 12 one-goal games, which actually only adds 4-5 points to the season total (b/c some of those extra McD goals only result in shootout or OT losses). So, that moves us from 29th to maybe 28th, still a dismal season.

Ok so I totalled up the Oilers points from this source: http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/EDM/2016.html

That adds up to 541 points total. 203 total goals were scored by Edmonton, so 1 goal = 2.67 points.

Good catch. Kudos.

 

[oljimmy]

Ok so I totalled up the Oilers points from this source: http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/EDM/2016.html

That adds up to 541 points total. 203 total goals were scored by Edmonton, so 1 goal = 2.67 points.

Good catch. Kudos.

Oh, people on HFoil have corrected my statistical reasoning all the time. it's a great community for collectively figuring out why and how our team is so ******* awful.

The injuries thing was surely a factor this year, but it's really hard to quantify definitively. One thing I will say is that the addition of players back to the lineup rarely made a difference. McD comes back, our points per game stays the same. Eberle, RNH, same. If any injuries really mattered this year, I think the Klefbom and Davidson ones did.