Ferocian
Registered User
Year Over Year, 2015-16 vs. 2014-15:
The biggest differences we see here are in the ROW stat and the goals against. Todd McLellan stated as his goal at the start of the year to get the players to stay in games for longer, and I'd say the lowered goals against would argue that was successful to at least some degree. Also, having more ROW's and less OTL's means that they stuck with it more when they made it to overtime, pushing through for more wins instead of just being content with the 1 point.
Injuries:
Man games lost 368 (2014-15 was 260 for a difference of +108. 41.5% increase)
Notable injuries = Jordan Eberle (Oct 8-Nov 3), Connor McDavid (Nov 6-Jan 23), Nail Yakupov (Nov 27-Jan 12), Benoit Pouliot (Dec 2-17, Mar 1-SeasonEnd), Brandon Davidson (Dec 2-4, Dec 21-29, Jan 23-Feb2, Mar 8-SeasonEnd), RNH (Jan 19-Mar 10, Mar 24-28), Eric Gryba (Feb 18-SeasonEnd), Justin Schultz (Oct 27-Nov 27), Andrew Ference (basically the whole season but officially Dec. 6-SeasonEnd[career?]), Oscar Klefbom (Dec 14-SeasonEnd). Full list at http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=782127
Injury Impact to Team (IIT); Edmonton “leads” the NHL in this category. IIT is calculated by taking a player’s average time on ice and his relative corsi-for, then using those as determining factors for how much them missing games hurts their team. Oscar Klefbom is 2nd in the NHL in this category for skaters, 3rd if you include goalies (Carey Price). Connor McDavid is 9th, RNH is 12th, Benoit Pouliot is 35th, Eric Gryba is 40th, Nail Yakupov is 64th, Brandon Davidson 77th, Jordan Eberle 91st. Schultz and Korpikoski’s injuries didn’t crack the top 100.
Consider the impact of this. If Edmonton hadn't lead the NHL in IIT, (they would've in MGL too if not for Toronto holding injured contracts on their books in exchange for draft picks, NJD were ahead of them too, not sure what their situation is, I don't follow the Devils) what would this season have looked like? For example, if we simplify things, during the stretch McDavid was out, Edmonton had 12 1-goal losses. CMD averages about 1 point per game, so you can assume he's worth approximately 1 goal per game. In other words, if he'd been healthy, the Oilers can reasonably have been expected to finish the season with 82 points instead of 70. That looks a hell of a lot better from the perspective of the rest of the league and their fans. It would've meant they were in the playoff hunt until right up near the end of the season.
Players:
[mod]
If anyone has any questions or wants clarification on any point I brought up here, I welcome it. It's hard to have so many different subjects but still make an article short enough to be readable. If you've made it this far, thanks for your time and I look forward to any comments you might have.
I've missed something and this is in violation of something let me know and I'll happily edit this to remove the link. If not, and you guys listen to the recording I made, I hope you enjoy it. I put a lot of thought and preparation into it and it's my first recording.
- Points 70 vs. 62. Difference = +8
- Wins 31 vs. 24. Difference = +7
- Losses 43 vs. 44. Difference = -1
- Regulation or Overtime Wins (ROW) 27 vs. 19 = +8
- Overtime Losses (aka "the loser point") 8 vs. 14. Difference = -6
- Goals for 203 vs. 198. Difference = +5
- Goals against 245 vs. 283. Difference = -38
The biggest differences we see here are in the ROW stat and the goals against. Todd McLellan stated as his goal at the start of the year to get the players to stay in games for longer, and I'd say the lowered goals against would argue that was successful to at least some degree. Also, having more ROW's and less OTL's means that they stuck with it more when they made it to overtime, pushing through for more wins instead of just being content with the 1 point.
Injuries:
Man games lost 368 (2014-15 was 260 for a difference of +108. 41.5% increase)
Notable injuries = Jordan Eberle (Oct 8-Nov 3), Connor McDavid (Nov 6-Jan 23), Nail Yakupov (Nov 27-Jan 12), Benoit Pouliot (Dec 2-17, Mar 1-SeasonEnd), Brandon Davidson (Dec 2-4, Dec 21-29, Jan 23-Feb2, Mar 8-SeasonEnd), RNH (Jan 19-Mar 10, Mar 24-28), Eric Gryba (Feb 18-SeasonEnd), Justin Schultz (Oct 27-Nov 27), Andrew Ference (basically the whole season but officially Dec. 6-SeasonEnd[career?]), Oscar Klefbom (Dec 14-SeasonEnd). Full list at http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=782127
Injury Impact to Team (IIT); Edmonton “leads” the NHL in this category. IIT is calculated by taking a player’s average time on ice and his relative corsi-for, then using those as determining factors for how much them missing games hurts their team. Oscar Klefbom is 2nd in the NHL in this category for skaters, 3rd if you include goalies (Carey Price). Connor McDavid is 9th, RNH is 12th, Benoit Pouliot is 35th, Eric Gryba is 40th, Nail Yakupov is 64th, Brandon Davidson 77th, Jordan Eberle 91st. Schultz and Korpikoski’s injuries didn’t crack the top 100.
Consider the impact of this. If Edmonton hadn't lead the NHL in IIT, (they would've in MGL too if not for Toronto holding injured contracts on their books in exchange for draft picks, NJD were ahead of them too, not sure what their situation is, I don't follow the Devils) what would this season have looked like? For example, if we simplify things, during the stretch McDavid was out, Edmonton had 12 1-goal losses. CMD averages about 1 point per game, so you can assume he's worth approximately 1 goal per game. In other words, if he'd been healthy, the Oilers can reasonably have been expected to finish the season with 82 points instead of 70. That looks a hell of a lot better from the perspective of the rest of the league and their fans. It would've meant they were in the playoff hunt until right up near the end of the season.
Players:
- The biggest disappointments would have to be Schultz and Lander. I put Lander over Schultz in that category because even though Schultz was more disappointing, none of us were surprised by the results. Lander on the other hand after a great finish to last season and a strong preseason we hoped for more from.
- Taylor Hall had an incredible start, but I suspect he had an undiagnosed concussion from the Gudbranson hit on Jan. 10th and his timing, passing, puck control and shot generation were all affected.
- Leon Draisaitl also had an incredible start to his season. In fact, he outproduced Hall over several stretches. I suspect that his production fell off because after last season his goal was basically to join the club and be a contributing member of the team. I don't think he was expecting to possibly become the leading scorer, so each time he got close to Hall's point total he relaxed. When Hall stopped producing, so did Leon.
- McDavid's 5 pt. night against Toronto and passing off to Eberle so he could get his first career hat trick instead of McDavid.
- Kassian for Scrivens trade, Maroon for a 4th and an ECHL prospect trade. These were great. They were the type of players that the team needed to fill out the roster (do you really want to require Eberle or RNH to have to eat crosschecks in front of the net or big hits in the corner?). Guys with big, sturdy frames who will bruise, not break when involved with the rougher aspects of play that the game requires in order to be successful. The Maroon trade especially was an absolute steal, and he's fit in so well.
- The Griffin Reinhart saga. When he was first picked up, this was in my opinion an overpay. Yes he was drafted 4th overall and we gave up 16th and 33rd to get him, and if it's in the same draft, you make that trade 8 times out of 10. However, not all drafts are equal and the 2015 draft was a deeper draft year than Reinhart's draft year. Giving up those two picks could get you usually a pretty decent roster player, you usually wouldn't give that up for a prospect. However I've taken a wait and see approach with the player, we'll only know how this pans out over time. When this season started, the way that he played was a disappointment. When he went to the AHL, it wasn't much better. Then, he did start to play better. He got called up, and didn't play super great for his first few games, but once again he got better. By the end of the season he was playing pretty solidly.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins's decreased production and the factors that went into it. I think a big part of this was his November illness that he continued to play through. He only missed one game but he was sick for most of that month. Once he was finally healthy as far as illness went, he went down with injury. Rough season for him and we can reasonably expect more from him in future seasons.
- Nail Yakupov's situation; I think Kreuger essentially ruined him for future coaches. Yakupov felt very appreciated under Kreuger and I think there's something to that. One thing I think Kreuger had going for him is he knew which shape went in which hole. For example I think Yakupov is a far more natural trigger man on the powerplay than Eberle is. Since Eakins, Yakupov has been bounced around the lineup. I'm someone who thinks that if there's an off-ice problem, ie they don't like his attitude, it shouldn't affect what happens on-ice as their whole job as professionals is to win hockey games. That's not to say I'm absolving Yakupov of blame for his situation. He could definitely be more.... obedient? But it would help that process if he was used in his areas of strength instead of trying to have him fit into a generic mold.
- Brandon Davidson and Jordan Oesterle, from relative obscurity to key components of the Oilers blueline. I like the story of both of these guys. It's slightly different because of how Davidson started the year, essentially being seen as an unfortunate extra on the roster that couldn't be sent down. As everyone knows, he earned his playing time gradually over the season, working his way up to even having first pairing minutes on some nights. Oesterle was a bit different in that he came up later in the season but all he's done since he arrived is play to a consistently high level and make smart plays. That was desperately needed on the right side of our D corps and its been very appreciated by fans.
- Waiver wire pickups. Clendenning, Pardy and Cracknell. Out of these I believe Clendenning got the most playtime but I thought that Pardy was the best player. The management did a good job of grabbing players off the wire that contributed towards team needs and avoiding players that would just be deadweight.
- McDavid's race for the calder. CMD will likely not get the calder unfortunately. Most of the voters are out east and do not watch Oilers games. That means that McDavid needed to pack some highlight reels to get their attention, which means taking over some games down the stretch. His 3pt night vs Vancouver would've helped but I doubt it will have been enough to unseat Gostisbehere. Unfortunately because of the way Calder voting works, I think for the people casting ballots it will be in their minds between Gostisbehere and McDavid but when they vote 1-2-3 the voting will come down as Gostisbehere, Panarin, McDavid. Just an artifact of the journalists wanting to give a tip of the hat to Panarin but not wanting him to win b/c of his 6 years of pro experience. The first place voting will definitely be Gostisbehere followed by McDavid, but because everyone will have put Panarin second, that's how the voting will turn out that way.
- Taylor Hall's outspoken attitude; is it really him with the problem or is he just trying to be a leader and taking other people's problems onto himself?
- The seeming referee bias this season. Was it because Edmonton wasn't supposed to be a playoff team? Did coaching staff just need to try to hold the refs more accountable? Something else? Especially when it came to Darnell Nurse. For some reason penalties were called on him that most other players don't get called for. Perhaps it's because he does the same things but more forcefully, or perhaps he already has a "reputation". Just look at the opposite side of the spectrum, refs realized Nazem Kadri was drawing a ton of penalties and basically decided any infraction against Kadri would no longer be called by the end of the season. What happened to refs trying to call an unbiased game? Is this basically acting out over the coaches challenge?
[mod]
If anyone has any questions or wants clarification on any point I brought up here, I welcome it. It's hard to have so many different subjects but still make an article short enough to be readable. If you've made it this far, thanks for your time and I look forward to any comments you might have.
I've missed something and this is in violation of something let me know and I'll happily edit this to remove the link. If not, and you guys listen to the recording I made, I hope you enjoy it. I put a lot of thought and preparation into it and it's my first recording.
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