Proposal: EDM-FLA : The Ekblad File

[violaswallet]

Importance to your team and value in a vacuum are wildly different things.

Huberdeau++ is a good package but it doesn't come close to Draisaitl, and Draisaitl's value is a good bit higher than Ekblad's.

I think the point is that certain players are rare and, in particular, top-tier players are much rarer than say good players, which is why they should have more value. For these extremely rare players, packaging several good assets that are less rare rarely make a difference.

Young top-end defensemen are good contracts are extremely rare and valuable due to position; there are maybe like 5-10 equivalent value players/contracts in the league (i.e. young team controlled #1s). There are many more equivalent players to Klefblom.

There are 3-5 players comparable to Draistatl and his contract in the league. There are maybe 5-10 players equivalent to Huby in the league (great contract wingers signed for the near term).

What makes Draisatl so valuable is how rare he is and how difficult he would be to replace: you really can't find near substitutes available...which is similar to Ekblad

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Importance to your team and value in a vacuum are wildly different things.

Huberdeau++ is a good package but it doesn't come close to Draisaitl, and Draisaitl's value is a good bit higher than Ekblad's.

I'll ask you the same question I did above to other poster.
Name me the elite RD you would trade Drai for? (current contracts into account)
Whether in a package offer of 2,3,4 pieces.

We know you don't trade Drai just like we can't trade Ekblad for lesser pieces that add up to a potential sum, potential being the key word.
If we're talking EDM's needs as in a RD, Ekblad would be one of the few key valued pieces EDM could expect. How many other options are there?

Makar - ELC, 1 yr left
Parayko - 2 years left
Jones - 2 years left
Pesce - 4 years left
Doughty - eternity

 

[violaswallet]

I'll ask you the same question I did above to other poster.
Name me the elite RD you would trade Drai for? (current contracts into account)
Whether in a package offer of 2,3,4 pieces.

We know you don't trade Drai just like we can't trade Ekblad for lesser pieces that add up to a potential sum, potential being the key word.
If we're talking EDM's needs as in a RD, Ekblad would be one of the few key valued pieces EDM could expect. How many other options are there?

Makar - ELC, 1 yr left
Parayko - 2 years left
Jones - 2 years left
Pesce - 4 years left
Doughty - eternity

Much better expressed than I could say; thanks @TheImpatientPanther

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I'll ask you the same question I did above to other poster.
Name me the elite RD you would trade Drai for? (current contracts into account)
Whether in a package offer of 2,3,4 pieces.

We know you don't trade Drai just like we can't trade Ekblad for lesser pieces that add up to a potential sum, potential being the key word.
If we're talking EDM's needs as in a RD, Ekblad would be one of the few key valued pieces EDM could expect. How many other options are there?

Makar - ELC, 1 yr left
Parayko - 2 years left
Jones - 2 years left
Pesce - 4 years left
Doughty - eternity

Personally, Zero. I don't think there's a defenceman in the league I'd trade Leon Draisaitl for.

MAYBE, MAYBE Cale Makar/Miro Heiskanen, if Draisaitl demanded a trade. Dealing him would be absolutely franchise altering and it would need a franchise altering return.

I don't believe RD is enough of an area of need to make Draisaitl walk the plank to get one.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

I think the point is that certain players are rare and, in particular, top-tier players are much rarer than say good players, which is why they should have more value. For these extremely rare players, packaging several good assets that are less rare rarely make a difference.

Young top-end defensemen are good contracts are extremely rare and valuable due to position; there are maybe like 5-10 equivalent value players/contracts in the league (i.e. young team controlled #1s). There are many more equivalent players to Klefblom.

There are 3-5 players comparable to Draistatl and his contract in the league. There are maybe 5-10 players equivalent to Huby in the league (great contract wingers signed for the near term).

What makes Draisatl so valuable is how rare he is and how difficult he would be to replace: you really can't find near substitutes available...which is similar to Ekblad

I mostly agree, but I also simply don't beleive Ekblad is on the same playing field as Draisaitl in terms of quality of player. Franchise C's are every bit as rare, and while Ekblad is very good, I wouldn't consider him in that territory.

 

[Srsly]

Even if Florida decides they’re rebuilding they still shouldn’t trade their 24 year old former first overall pick that leads the team in TOIPG.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Personally, Zero. I don't think there's a defenceman in the league I'd trade Leon Draisaitl for.

MAYBE, MAYBE Cale Makar/Miro Heiskanen, if Draisaitl demanded a trade. Dealing him would be absolutely franchise altering and it would need a franchise altering return.

I don't believe RD is enough of an area of need to make Draisaitl walk the plank to get one.

So you get my point? You don't want to trade Drai for lesser pieces.
Ekblad is a lesser piece to Drai but he's likely one of the 5 best options EDM would at least think about (age, contract, resume) if trading Drai for a RD as the key piece/need.

Well it's the same for FLA with Ekblad, the offense/defense stats show he is one of the better RD in the league.
Can also guarantee you DAL or COL don't trade either of those two for quantity.
That happens when the player has half year/one year or a year and a half left.
Or they walk in free agency.

 

[BatVader]

Laine + Pionk for Ekblad + Tippett + Borgstrom?

 

[violaswallet]

I mostly agree, but I also simply don't beleive Ekblad is on the same playing field as Draisaitl in terms of quality of player. Franchise C's are every bit as rare, and while Ekblad is very good, I wouldn't consider him in that territory.

I agree: Draisatl is far better than Ekblad. In terms of rareness, it is closer by position if we consider age and contract.

If we use NHL.com's top 20 defensemen and centers (which Draistal is and Ek is not), we can see only 4 of the defensmen are under 25 and only 9 are under 30. For centers, 15 of them are under 30 and 8 under 25 with several right at 25 (including Barky and Mack).

The only comparables for age and contract length for Ek are Chabot, Theodore, Hanifin, Slavvin or Provarov

 

[violaswallet]

Laine + Pionk for Ekblad + Tippett + Borgstrom?

Laine is a great high-end value piece that I like a lot; I appreciate this offer.

I think for team needs, we would be a worst team given our defensive ails. Now if you want a Huberdeau

 

[bucks_oil]

Ekblad + 12th is closer to Drai than Klefbom + decent/great prospect + mystery box imo. You don't have to agree with it.

I think you're not valuing RD enough, they are more rare and I added some of Ekblads stats since 2014-15, he's inside the top 10-20 for a lot of offensive stats. His defense has majorly improved the last two years, those stats were shown as well.

Point 1: is another false equivalency. In your terminology FLA's 1st = "12th", whereas our 14th = "Mystery Box".... make up your mind and apply the logic consistently

Point 2: since 2014/15, Ekblad has 0.46 ppg vs 0.42 ppg for Klefbom. Since 2016/17 the numbers are 0.46 vs 0.45. Since 2017/2018 the numbers are 0.50 vs 0.44.... that amounts to between 1 and 5 points over a full season. So it's a lot closer than you think.

Point 3: Handedness: 16 of the top 30 defenseman scorers over the last 3 seasons are RH, so that value assertion also doesn't stand up to the data.

 

[bucks_oil]

So you get my point? You don't want to trade Drai for lesser pieces.
Ekblad is a lesser piece to Drai but he's likely one of the 5 best options EDM would at least think about (age, contract, resume) if trading Drai for a RD as the key piece/need.

Well it's the same for FLA with Ekblad, the offense/defense stats show he is one of the better RD in the league.

But do they?

The link here has him at 20th over the last three years, even among RD
NHL Stats

Meanwhile, Drai is 5th among all skaters, or 3rd among centers (if you prefer).

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Point 1: is another false equivalency. In your terminology FLA's 1st = "12th", whereas our 14th = "Mystery Box".... make up your mind and apply the logic consistently

Point 2: since 2014/15, Ekblad has 0.46 ppg vs 0.42 ppg for Klefbom. Since 2016/17 the numbers are 0.46 vs 0.45. Since 2017/2018 the numbers are 0.50 vs 0.44.... that amounts to between 1 and 5 points over a full season. So it's a lot closer than you think.

Point 3: Handedness: 16 of the top 30 defenseman scorers over the last 3 seasons are RH, so that value assertion also doesn't stand up to the data.

But do they?

The link here has him at 20th over the last three years, even among RD
NHL Stats

Meanwhile, Drai is 5th among all skaters, or 3rd among centers (if you prefer).

12th and 14th are mystery boxes, they have value but usually takes 2-3 years to fully know what you got.
I listed some of the top tier options of RD available, it isn't a big list and Ekblad is on it.
You're not trading Drai and FLA isn't trading Ekblad.
The OP is a good quantity offer but it doesn't help our key weakness on defense, it takes away the best part.

So are we just gonna ignore Klefbom gets #1 PP time?
That's why I posted even strength points.

Klefbom: team leader in PP TOI among EDM defense

17-18: averaged 2:45 on the PP - 1 g, 6pts
18-19: averaged 2:39 on the PP - 1 g, 11pts
19-20: averaged 3:37 on the PP - 2g, 18pts

Ekblad: (2nd in PP TOI, behind Yandle who is 3rd in PPP (78) in that 3 year timeline)

17-18: averaged 2:07 on the PP - 5 g, 11pts
18-19: averaged 1:41 on the PP - 5 g, 10pts
19-20: averaged 1:26 on the PP - 6 assists

Klefbom had 4 goals and 35 PP points with a lot more PP time, 1st unit
Ekblad had 10 goals and 27 PP points with a lot less PP time, 2nd unit.

Let's get to even strength points:

Klefbom had 10 goals and 47 points, averaging 19:05 in ES mins. 189 games, 0.24 EVP/GP
Ekblad had 24 goals and 88 points, averaging 19:22 in ES mins. 231 games, 0.38 EVP/GP

Klefbom isn't inside the top 30, didn't look for him after page 1
Ekblad is tied for 9th in even strength points among all defensemen those last 3 years

Now, if Ekblad was given #1 PP time, don't you think he could maybe up those numbers and up his P/GP?
I'd be shocked if he couldn't get 5-6 goals, 15-20 points on the PP.
He averages 4 goals and 10pts on the PP over his career already.
That bump in points takes him from a 40pt guy to a 50-55pt guy.

Do we need to go on? Ekblad is a tier above Klefbom

 

[780il]

Seems like an overpay tbh. I’m not comfortable playing that much for an Ekblad level guy.

 

[bernmeister]

In a vacuum ArEk does not get dealt.

He does not go in OP's offer.

In real world, where prior injury history is NOT an immediate concern, but someone with history of concussion is thought more susceptible to the next big one, as a career ender, that is a real but acceptable risk for 1RD of ArEk caliber.

Other consideration is does dealing a star bring enough profit to make it almost impossible to decline.
Does FL need several more pieces? Yes.

But would ArEk trade net the right currency?

Only MAYBE if it was
Marner and Leafs eat almost 3 per
plus
signif adds.

But I agree w/FL fans on this one, not unless it is beyond reasonable overpay.

Supply and demand.
Parayko.
McAvoy
that group.

Who is available? Nobody. Why?
Cost to replace likely higher than benefit of acquisition.

 

[violaswallet]

In a vacuum ArEk does not get dealt.

He does not go in OP's offer.

In real world, where prior injury history is NOT an immediate concern, but someone with history of concussion is thought more susceptible to the next big one, as a career ender, that is a real but acceptable risk for 1RD of ArEk caliber.

Other consideration is does dealing a star bring enough profit to make it almost impossible to decline.
Does FL need several more pieces? Yes.

But would ArEk trade net the right currency?

Only MAYBE if it was
Marner and Leafs eat almost 3 per
plus
signif adds.

But I agree w/FL fans on this one, not unless it is beyond reasonable overpay.

Supply and demand.
Parayko.
McAvoy
that group.

Who is available? Nobody. Why?
Cost to replace likely higher than benefit of acquisition.

Given our weakness in defense, I don't see how we could trade him really. Like say if for some reason a guy like Werenski wants to be here and only here, but I don't see it

Let's avoid offers with the Leafs; these boards are in an excitable mood in trying to pry Barky or Ekky from us without considering replacement costs...

 

[violaswallet]

12th and 14th are mystery boxes, they have value but usually takes 2-3 years to fully know what you got.
I listed some of the top tier options of RD available, it isn't a big list and Ekblad is on it.
You're not trading Drai and FLA isn't trading Ekblad.
The OP is a good quantity offer but it doesn't help our key weakness on defense, it takes away the best part.

So are we just gonna ignore Klefbom gets #1 PP time?
That's why I posted even strength points.

Klefbom: team leader in PP TOI among EDM defense

17-18: averaged 2:45 on the PP - 1 g, 6pts
18-19: averaged 2:39 on the PP - 1 g, 11pts
19-20: averaged 3:37 on the PP - 2g, 18pts

Ekblad: (2nd in PP TOI, behind Yandle who is 3rd in PPP (78) in that 3 year timeline)

17-18: averaged 2:07 on the PP - 5 g, 11pts
18-19: averaged 1:41 on the PP - 5 g, 10pts
19-20: averaged 1:26 on the PP - 6 assists

Klefbom had 4 goals and 35 PP points with a lot more PP time, 1st unit
Ekblad had 10 goals and 27 PP points with a lot less PP time, 2nd unit.

Let's get to even strength points:

Klefbom had 10 goals and 47 points, averaging 19:05 in ES mins. 189 games, 0.24 EVP/GP
Ekblad had 24 goals and 88 points, averaging 19:22 in ES mins. 231 games, 0.38 EVP/GP

Klefbom isn't inside the top 30, didn't look for him after page 1
Ekblad is tied for 9th in even strength points among all defensemen those last 3 years

Now, if Ekblad was given #1 PP time, don't you think he could maybe up those numbers and up his P/GP?
I'd be shocked if he couldn't get 5-6 goals, 15-20 points on the PP.
He averages 4 goals and 10pts on the PP over his career already.
That bump in points takes him from a 40pt guy to a 50-55pt guy.

Do we need to go on? Ekblad is a tier above Klefbom

I don't think people realized that Ek was on the top PP for the 2017-2018 season. (That season he played about 100 minutes next to KY). Since Hoff came in 2018-2019, Ekblad has been on the second powerplay which has been far less dangerous...

AE was on pace for 50 points this season. Put him on the top PP, he would have had at least 55 (pace)...

 

[bernmeister]

Given our weakness in defense, I don't see how we could trade him really. Like say if for some reason a guy like Werenski wants to be here and only here, but I don't see it

Let's avoid offers with the Leafs; these boards are in an excitable mood in trying to pry Barky or Ekky from us without considering replacement costs...

you're missing the pt
you have multiple needs
if you got -- just spitballin --

Marner = a scorer, large retained
+ the 1st they got from Pit
+ Liljigren
+ something else

for
ArEk,
gotta think about it.

If Leafs want to do 1:1, not retain enough, then of course no.

 

[violaswallet]

you're missing the pt
you have multiple needs
if you got -- just spitballin --

Marner = a scorer, large retained
+ the 1st they got from Pit
+ Liljigren
+ something else

for
ArEk,
gotta think about it.

If Leafs want to do 1:1, not retain enough, then of course no.

Sure, but remove Ekblad: our biggest need is top pairing defensemen. Weegar is servicable next to Ekblad, but we don't have anyone...Yandle is a powerplay specialist we have on the third pairing.

Like maybe an insane overpayment could happen, but it is unclear if we're a better team with a top line of Huby-Barky-Marner and a defense of Weegar-Yandle/Stralman-Stillman...

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

I don't think people realized that Ek was on the top PP for the 2017-2018 season. (That season he played about 100 minutes next to KY). Since Hoff came in 2018-2019, Ekblad has been on the second powerplay which has been far less dangerous...

AE was on pace for 50 points this season. Put him on the top PP, he would have had at least 55 (pace)...

And his rookie peak season in 14-15:

Campbell averaged 3:07 on PP - 1 goal, 11 pts
Ekblad averaged 2:48 on PP- 6 goals, 13 pts. He led the team in PP points.

Soupy, Huberdeau and Bjugstad had 12 PP points
Jimmy Hayes had 11
Boyes and Jokinen with 9
Barkov and Pirri with 7

Huberdeau and Barkov average a lot more now.

20ish points on the PP for Ekblad with Barkov, Huberdeau, Tippett/Hoffman, Denisenko/Dadonov seems fair no?
That would have him 10th to 15th among all D on the PP in 18-19.

 

[violaswallet]

And his rookie peak season in 14-15:

Campbell averaged 3:07 on PP - 1 goal, 11 pts
Ekblad averaged 2:48 on PP- 6 goals, 13 pts. He led the team in PP points.

Soupy, Huberdeau and Bjugstad had 12 PP points
Jimmy Hayes had 11
Boyes and Jokinen with 9
Barkov and Pirri with 7

Huberdeau and Barkov average a lot more now.

20ish points on the PP for Ekblad with Barkov, Huberdeau, Tippett/Hoffman, Denisenko/Dadonov seems fair no?
That would have him 10th to 15th among all D on the PP in 18-19.

I agree somewhat; we debated it on the main board. If Yandle wasn't on the team, I think Ek could have hit 20/82 on PP which would have put him near 60 points. I don't say that here just because I don't want to declare him a 60 point scorer

 

[FrolikFan67]

Too much for the oilers to give, and the panthers can’t afford to trade him even for that package. Both teams can say no to this (hypothetical) deal and still be justified on both ends.

 

[bucks_oil]

12th and 14th are mystery boxes, they have value but usually takes 2-3 years to fully know what you got.
I listed some of the top tier options of RD available, it isn't a big list and Ekblad is on it.
You're not trading Drai and FLA isn't trading Ekblad.
The OP is a good quantity offer but it doesn't help our key weakness on defense, it takes away the best part.

Thanks for finally acknowledging and being more even handed in your characterization.

Do we need to go on? Ekblad is a tier above Klefbom

This is not in question. I acknowledged it from the start. My point is and has been your value gap assessment is off and biased.

I have (and I'm sure I'm not alone): League MVP C (24 yrs old, 5yrs @ 8.5M) >> or >>> Mid-Low end #1D (24 yrs old, 5yrs @7.5M) >> High-end #2D (27 yrs old, 3yrs @4.17M)

In the OP offer, the >> equates to two 1sts... I personally think that is a little too rich and more importantly doesn't match our needs. But it is fair valuation

And you have: League MVP C (24 yrs old, 5yrs @ 8.5M) > Mid-Low end #1D (24 yrs old, 5yrs @7.5M) >> High-end #2D (27 yrs old, 3yrs @4.17M)

And you characterize the OP as the equivalent of offering Ekblad + 12th for Drai. But that's a false equivalency. OP offered TWO 1st equivalents. The Drai/Ek gap is at least as large as the gap between Ek & Klef... thus you should be offering 1st + Tippet or two 1sts... to which, I would respond "fair but no".

Anyway, I don't mind agreeing to disagree here. Team needs aren't a great match anyway as you rightly point out. I just hate the false equivalencies. I don't see that as negotiating in good faith

 

[violaswallet]

Thanks for finally acknowledging and being more even handed in your characterization.


This is not in question. I acknowledged it from the start. My point is and has been your value gap assessment is off and biased.

I have (and I'm sure I'm not alone): League MVP C (24 yrs old, 5yrs @ 8.5M) >> or >>> Mid-Low end #1D (24 yrs old, 5yrs @7.5M) >> High-end #2D (27 yrs old, 3yrs @4.17M)

In the OP offer, the >> equates to two 1sts... I personally think that is a little too rich and more importantly doesn't match our needs. But it is fair valuation

And you have: League MVP C (24 yrs old, 5yrs @ 8.5M) > Mid-Low end #1D (24 yrs old, 5yrs @7.5M) >> High-end #2D (27 yrs old, 3yrs @4.17M)

And you characterize the OP as the equivalent of offering Ekblad + 12th for Drai. But that's a false equivalency. OP offered TWO 1st equivalents. The Drai/Ek gap is at least as large as the gap between Ek & Klef... thus you should be offering 1st + Tippet or two 1sts... to which, I would respond "fair but no".

Anyway, I don't mind agreeing to disagree here. Team needs aren't a great match anyway as you rightly point out. I just hate the false equivalencies. I don't see that as negotiating in good faith

I think it was mainly an illustration of why the Ekblad trade is bad tbh...which goes back to my earlier post as well: no one thinks Draisatl would be traded for a package like this barring say trade demand given how rare he is

 

[Fourier]

12th and 14th are mystery boxes, they have value but usually takes 2-3 years to fully know what you got.
I listed some of the top tier options of RD available, it isn't a big list and Ekblad is on it.
You're not trading Drai and FLA isn't trading Ekblad.
The OP is a good quantity offer but it doesn't help our key weakness on defense, it takes away the best part.

So are we just gonna ignore Klefbom gets #1 PP time?
That's why I posted even strength points.

Klefbom: team leader in PP TOI among EDM defense

17-18: averaged 2:45 on the PP - 1 g, 6pts
18-19: averaged 2:39 on the PP - 1 g, 11pts
19-20: averaged 3:37 on the PP - 2g, 18pts

Ekblad: (2nd in PP TOI, behind Yandle who is 3rd in PPP (78) in that 3 year timeline)

17-18: averaged 2:07 on the PP - 5 g, 11pts
18-19: averaged 1:41 on the PP - 5 g, 10pts
19-20: averaged 1:26 on the PP - 6 assists

Klefbom had 4 goals and 35 PP points with a lot more PP time, 1st unit
Ekblad had 10 goals and 27 PP points with a lot less PP time, 2nd unit.

Let's get to even strength points:

Klefbom had 10 goals and 47 points, averaging 19:05 in ES mins. 189 games, 0.24 EVP/GP
Ekblad had 24 goals and 88 points, averaging 19:22 in ES mins. 231 games, 0.38 EVP/GP

Klefbom isn't inside the top 30, didn't look for him after page 1
Ekblad is tied for 9th in even strength points among all defensemen those last 3 years

Now, if Ekblad was given #1 PP time, don't you think he could maybe up those numbers and up his P/GP?
I'd be shocked if he couldn't get 5-6 goals, 15-20 points on the PP.
He averages 4 goals and 10pts on the PP over his career already.
That bump in points takes him from a 40pt guy to a 50-55pt guy.

Do we need to go on? Ekblad is a tier above Klefbom

You can't always compare defensemen on different teams like this. The Oilers offence does not run through its defensemen as many teams tend to do, though I have no idea if this is the case in Florida. The Oiler attack is often off the rush and when it is in zone the puck primarily cycles through the three main forwards. Only Nuge really uses the defense and a primary outlet. McDavid, and to a lesser degree Draisaitl, tends to be focused towards the net and across the ice.

That said I think it is clear that Ekblad is better than Klefbom. But these sort of "imagine how many more points he would get with ..." arguments often lack context. Because of his style I am not so sure Ekblad pts up many more points on the Oilers than he would in Florida.