Proposal: EDM-FLA : The Ekblad File

[TFHockey]

If Florida were to ever consider trading their #1 D I doubt he would go to a divisional rival like Toronto and for a guy like Nylander

https://thehockeywriters.com/maple-leafs-nylander-ekblad-nurse-subban/

So here is my proposal:



Aaron Ekblad



Oscar Klefbom
Oilers 2020 1st round (14th OA)
Evan Bouchard

The Oilers get a true #1 D on the right side, allowing Holland to trade Larsson for a pick or a middle six forward. This moves the timeline for Edmonton's playoff competitiveness forward.

The Oilers lose their best LHD, a first round pick and Bouchard who projects to be the team's top RHD in a few years.

Florida gains the aforementioned assets.

If Bill Zito does not want a top pairing LHD (Klefbom is not a #1, but probably a #2 guy) and wants a forward instead because of the potential loss of Hoffman and Dadonov to free agency, swap out Klefbom with an extended RNH (probably $6.75 Million AAV).

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to find common ground between these two franchises.

Click to read more...

 

[violaswallet]

Florida won’t trade a young medium end number one signed for a (reasonable) long term contract for quantity. Given his contract we can feasibly retool with him on the roster


All three pieces you include provide value but aren’t, on expectation, high-end pieces. Remember that Larson (at about the same age) went for Hall and other top defensemen traded were for other top defensemen or were rentals

 

[LEAFANFORLIFE23]

Florida won’t trade a young medium end number one signed for a (reasonable) long term contract for quantity. Given his contract we can feasibly retool with him on the roster


All three pieces you include provide value but aren’t, on expectation, high-end pieces. Remember that Larson (at about the same age) went for Hall and other top defensemen traded were for other top defensemen or were rentals

Do you remember who the Oiler GM was? he's not there anymore

 

[Fatass]

If Florida was rebuilding this is a very fair trade.

 

[JT Kreider]

Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to find common ground between these two franchises.

And then what? The trade gets done in real life?

 

[belair]

Florida won’t trade a young medium end number one signed for a (reasonable) long term contract for quantity. Given his contract we can feasibly retool with him on the roster


All three pieces you include provide value but aren’t, on expectation, high-end pieces. Remember that Larson (at about the same age) went for Hall and other top defensemen traded were for other top defensemen or were rentals

What are high end pieces in your opinion? You're talking about a mid 20s defenseman who plays top pairing minutes on a value contract and the team's top prospect, plus a 1st. If you're talking about multiple established players, why would anyone ever make a trade like that?

From Florida's perspective, I see no reason why they'd feel the need to trade Ekblad considering his age and ability. But the reality is you rarely get the value you want when you're the one trading away the higher talent.

 

[TFHockey]

And then what? The trade gets done in real life?

I dunno, tweet the teams we've made up our minds?

 

[violaswallet]

Do you remember who the Oiler GM was? he's not there anymore

sure: doesn’t take away the point that top defensemen on good contracts aren’t traded for quantity.

If Florida was rebuilding this is a very fair trade.

I don’t think so. If rebuilding Kleblom isn’t an interesting a piece. On expectation neither a mid 1st nor Bouchard is really a central piece to a rebuild. (I’m not an expert on Bouchard but he is a very good not elite prospect that is only three years younger than Ekblad)

I think Colorado and Byram would be the target for a prospect for Ek trade if day Ek demanded a trade

 

[violaswallet]

What are high end pieces in your opinion? You're talking about a mid 20s defenseman who plays top pairing minutes on a value contract and the team's top prospect, plus a 1st. If you're talking about multiple established players, why would anyone ever make a trade like that?

From Florida's perspective, I see no reason why they'd feel the need to trade Ekblad considering his age and ability. But the reality is you rarely get the value you want when you're the one trading away the higher talent.

What are high end pieces in your opinion? You're talking about a mid 20s defenseman who plays top pairing minutes on a value contract and the team's top prospect, plus a 1st. If you're talking about multiple established players, why would anyone ever make a trade like that?

From Florida's perspective, I see no reason why they'd feel the need to trade Ekblad considering his age and ability. But the reality is you rarely get the value you want when you're the one trading away the higher talent.

Sure Kleblom is a good player but not a number one.

A top prospect for a team does not yield on expectation a top player; we all overvalue. A high-end defense prospect would say be Byram out of Colorado... Someone with less risk and a higher probability of becoming a top 2 defenseman.

 

[TFHockey]

sure: doesn’t take away the point that top defensemen on good contracts aren’t traded for quantity.



I don’t think so. If rebuilding Kleblom isn’t an interesting a piece. On expectation neither a mid 1st nor Bouchard is really a central piece to a rebuild. (I’m not an expert on Bouchard but he is a very good not elite prospect that is only three years younger than Ekblad)

I think Colorado and Byram would be the target for a prospect for Ek trade if day Ek demanded a trade

Bouchard is a top prospect RHD. Have to disagree with you on this.

 

[violaswallet]

Bouchard is a top prospect RHD. Have to disagree with you on this.

He's an excellent prospect yes and maybe my language is wrong, but he isn't that super elite upper tier (which is rather small--say Seider and Byram are the guys that jump out) that would move the needle on a top player. I'd say he is like Tippett or Denisenko (who Pronman ranks above Bouchard at 5th and 12th on his rankings): prospects with potential.

Maybe this would make sense: except for a few rare prospects, prospects are risky: as fans, we focus on the best outcome (top pairing), but this is rarely the risk-neutral expectation. This is fine when comparing prospects to prospects; however, when comparing prospects to players, the risk matters a lot

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Klefblom's last 2 seasons 5 on 5:



Ekblad's last 2 seasons 5 on 5:



I get there's a gap and two 1sts is trying to fill it but Id rather keep the legit top pair RD (who are rarer than LD) who's in his prime, younger, still locked up for 5 years and seems to be the healthier one.
Its a pretty easy NO for FLA fans.

No to any Ekblad or Barkov deals.
Huberdeau may be available but we rather a 1 for 1 deal (#3 defensive D with at least similar term (2-3 years left on deal)

 

[TFHockey]

Klefblom's last 2 seasons 5 on 5:

View attachment 366669

Ekblad's last 2 seasons 5 on 5:

View attachment 366670

I get there's a gap and two 1sts is trying to fill it but Id rather keep the legit top pair RD (who are rarer than LD) who's in his prime, younger, still locked up for 5 years and seems to be the healthier one.
Its a pretty easy NO for FLA fans.

Klefbom also has 60% of the salary of Ekblad, which is also of value, and signed for 3 more years. Ekblad is the better player and no one is disputing that. An easy no? You're overstating that. It's a solid offer in my book.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Klefbom also has 60% of the salary of Ekblad, which is also of value, and signed for 3 more years. Ekblad is the better player and no one is disputing that. An easy no? You're overstating that. It's a solid offer in my book.

Maybe a solid offer in quantity but you don't move a prime aged RD with 5 years left for quantity. Simple as that.

Do you want me to put together a package for McDavid?
Ekblad is important to this team, we were bottom 5 in GA/G, spent the most on defense in the league, imagine it without or leader back there.

Klefbom is injuried lately, not as good offensively and has less term

Bouchard is a shiny new toy, looks to be a future PPQB but his defense is suspect.
14th is a mystery box for the next 2-3 years.

 

[TFHockey]

Maybe be a solid offer in quantity but you don't move a prime aged RD with 5 years left for quantity. Simple as that.

Do you want me to put together a package for McDavid? Ekblad is important to this team, we were bottom 5 in GA/G, spent the most on defense in the league, imagine it without or leader back there.

Klefbom is injuried lately, not as good offensively and has less term

Bouchard is a shiny new toy, looks to be a future PPQB but his defense is suspect.
14th is a mystery box for the next 2-3 years.

Well, after I read the article that Toronto would offer Nylander for Ekblad I thought I'd make a much fairer offer.

Also, pointing out Klefbom's injuries while ignoring three concussions for Ekblad seems disingenuous. I am assuming both players go forward and play uninjured.

Anyway, let's agree to disagree.

 

[Ryuji Yamazaki]

Terrible.

Defense is our main position of need. Trading our best dman doesn't help that.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

Well, after I read the article that Toronto would offer Nylander for Ekblad I thought I'd make a much fairer offer.

Also, pointing out Klefbom's injuries while ignoring three concussions for Ekblad seems disingenuous. I am assuming both players go forward and play uninjured.

Anyway, let's agree to disagree.

Thats a pipedream for TOR fans to drum up noise imo.
There's no way a new GM comes in and immediately trades his only #1D.

Ekblad has missed 21 games in 6 years so far and that concussion filled year is now 3 years in the past, he has adapted his game to be more aware below the crease line when scooping up loose pucks.

How many games has Klefbom missed in the last 6 years? I could understand if he was the more physical guy but Ekblad actually averages more hits over a 82 average.

We definitely disagree, doubt you will find any FLA fans willing to do this trade.

 

[bucks_oil]

I’m not an expert on Bouchard

You can say that again.

Here are the Coles Notes:

Finished his draft year with 87 points in 65 games in the OHL - to put that in perspective, Ekblad had 53 in 58 in his draft year
2018 10th overall pick
2019 concentrated more on D, still scored 53 in 45 in the OHL - then a whopping 21 points in 11 playoff games, THEN, when OHL was done 8 points in 8 AHL playoff games
2020 36 points in 54 AHL games as a rookie
He has size, smarts and logs a tonne of minutes at any level he's played

Offensively he has performed as well or better as any OHL D-man in the last decade. His only drawback is a lack of physicality (more a rub-you-out then clobber you kind of guy).

And we are adding a 27 year old, solid #2 dman under a $4.17M contract until the end of 2023

And a mid 1st on top of it.

Any way you slice it, that is an absolute HAUL.

You can argue against it strategically from Florida's perspective... a single ELITE asset vs one STAR level and two HIGH END tickets...

But I would do the same. I love Ekblad but I'm not sure I would do it. Neither Ekblad nor Klefbom have been very durable, but both can be trusted to be on the ice for the final minute of play in the SCF... and I get to keep $3M in cap for the next three seasons PLUS Bouchard and 14th overall?

Not sure I would offer as much as the OP.

 

[Mickey Marner]

Bouchard seems kind of redundant with Yandle signed for three more years. Oilers should just put him on their PP and use Klefbom in a shutdown/pk role. Maybe 2nd unit PP. 21-22 minutes per game.

 

[belair]

Sure Kleblom is a good player but not a number one.

A top prospect for a team does not yield on expectation a top player; we all overvalue. A high-end defense prospect would say be Byram out of Colorado... Someone with less risk and a higher probability of becoming a top 2 defenseman.

So again, I have to ask you why anyone bothers to make a trade like that. If a #1d costs a team a #1d plus additional assets, why would a team ever do that?

From Edmonton's perspective, I would never trade the aforementioned package for Byram. For the exact reason you mentioned--a prospect being overvalued.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

You can say that again.

Here are the Coles Notes:

Finished his draft year with 87 points in 65 games in the OHL - to put that in perspective, Ekblad had 53 in 58 in his draft year
2018 10th overall pick
2019 concentrated more on D, still scored 53 in 45 in the OHL - then a whopping 21 points in 11 playoff games, THEN, when OHL was done 8 points in 8 AHL playoff games
2020 36 points in 54 AHL games as a rookie
He has size, smarts and logs a tonne of minutes at any level he's played

Offensively he has performed as well or better as any OHL D-man in the last decade. His only drawback is a lack of physicality (more a rub-you-out then clobber you kind of guy).

And we are adding a 27 year old, solid #2 dman under a $4.17M contract until the end of 2023

And a mid 1st on top of it.

Any way you slice it, that is an absolute HAUL.

You can argue against it strategically from Florida's perspective... a single ELITE asset vs one STAR level and two HIGH END tickets...

But I would do the same. I love Ekblad but I'm not sure I would do it. Neither Ekblad nor Klefbom have been very durable, but both can be trusted to be on the ice for the final minute of play in the SCF... and I get to keep $3M in cap for the next three seasons PLUS Bouchard and 14th overall?

Not sure I would offer as much as the OP.

Ekblad + 12th for Drai then?
Both have same term left, Drai is a million more expensive. Same age.

EDM gets a top pair RD and 12th overall, they re-sign RNH and have at it.
Deal?

Keep Bouchard, you say his only drawback on him is his physicality? What about his defense in general?
He also played for London 3 years, 2 of those years they won 51 and 46 out 68 games. They won the Championship in the 51 win season.

Not saying Bouchard didn't help the team but its not like he was the only reason.

 

[TheImpatientPanther]

So again, I have to ask you why anyone bothers to make a trade like that. If a #1d costs a team a #1d plus additional assets, why would a team ever do that?

From Edmonton's perspective, I would never trade the aforementioned package for Byram. For the exact reason you mentioned--a prospect being overvalued.

Ekblad has 5 years left, not a year or year and a half.
How often are prime aged RD traded with 5 years left?

Subban and Weber and both were nearing exits of their prime years.

 

[Llamamoto]

Both teams say no to this one.

 

[belair]

Ekblad has 5 years left, not a year or year and a half.
How often are prime aged RD traded with 5 years left?

Subban and Weber and both were nearing exits of their prime years.

They're not. You know why? Because nobody is willing to pay fair value for them. Simply because fair value makes no sense.

Elite players usually yield very modest returns when traded.

 

[DarthProbert]

For all the people saying Florida says no, go back and justify the way Reilly, March Assault, Trochek, and soon Hoffman and Dadonov all departed. I personally think this is an overpay from Edmonton, and I don't mean that as a knock on Ekblad whatsoever. Remove any one piece from Edmonton's side.