Confirmed Signing with Link: [EDM] F Kailer Yamamoto signs extension with Oilers (2 years, $3.1M)

[Tobias Kahun]

You uh…know the salary cap is a thing right?
We have 2 elite of the elite centres, so of course you aren’t going to have 2-4 legit top line wingers. We have 1 in Kane, Hyman and Nuge are legit 2nd line guys who can definitely play on the top line as well.
You understand that it exists right and your fantasy world of having the centres we have and having like 4 top line wingers to match with them is impossible right?

I dont think hes aware of much outside of the Canucks,

 

[Stephen]

Having a hard time seeing where the $6 million can be cleared efficiently. The middle class player salaries don't line up to allow for one easy removal, and the players making a little more than Yamamoto don't seem like players the Oilers want to move off.

 

[Bank Shot]

Having a hard time seeing where the $6 million can be cleared efficiently. The middle class player salaries don't line up to allow for one easy removal, and the players making a little more than Yamamoto don't seem like players the Oilers want to move off.

I think the Oilers only need to clear about $3 million to be cap compliant.

One of Puljujarvi or Foegele going is my guess.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Having a hard time seeing where the $6 million can be cleared efficiently. The middle class player salaries don't line up to allow for one easy removal, and the players making a little more than Yamamoto don't seem like players the Oilers want to move off.

We dont need to clear 6m.

We have 6.3m in LTIR we can use.

 

[Fig]

Having a hard time seeing where the $6 million can be cleared efficiently. The middle class player salaries don't line up to allow for one easy removal, and the players making a little more than Yamamoto don't seem like players the Oilers want to move off.

Klefbom and Smith can add to 6.367 Mil in LTIR. It basically means they can sign McLeod to a 1.2 ish AAV contract and waive someone to be cap compliant.

If that's the contract for McLeod, Oilers don't have to pay assets to be cap compliant. They just waive Ryan, Foegele or Janmark every 30 days or whatever it is while keeping the player on the roster if the player isn't claimed. If the Oilers end up with someone on IR, the waiving of said player can stop. Flames did this 2-3 seasons ago with Derek Ryan (coincidentally the same guy the Oilers might consider doing this with) when they couldn't clear the cap they wanted to.

 

[Soundwave]

Klefbom and Smith can add to 6.367 Mil in LTIR. It basically means they can sign McLeod to a 1.2 ish AAV contract and waive someone to be cap compliant.

If that's the contract for McLeod, Oilers don't have to pay assets to be cap compliant. They just waive Ryan, Foegele or Janmark every 30 days or whatever it is while keeping the player on the roster if the player isn't claimed.

Can you have a 22 man roster doing this?

If that's possible, then I guess that might be what the Oilers end up doing.

 

[North Cole]

I mean, that's all well and good but wtf is that statement? "occasionally produces next to superstars but hard to say if he is driving the bus".... What players exactly would we expect to be driving the bus on a line with McDavid or Draisaitl? Also players that drive the bus don't make 3.1M.

Nice conclusion Jfresh

 

[Soundwave]

I mean, that's all well and good but wtf is that statement? "Produces next to superstars but hard to say if he is driving the bus".... What players exactly would we expect to be driving the bus on a line with McDavid or Draisaitl? Also players that drive the bus don't make 3.1M.

Nice conclusion Jfresh

Wayne Gretzky.

 

[Fig]

Can you have a 22 man roster doing this?

If that's possible, then I guess that might be what the Oilers end up doing.

Yes I believe so. Flames literally did this with Derek Ryan 2-3 seasons ago and ran a short bench to get the 900K they needed until they accrued enough. Ryan just hung out on the taxi squad and was swapped in whenever he was needed. Although waived and cleared, he was never sent to the AHL. Short bench just means less reserve guys in the press box.

Oilers I believe should be able to do this too. Worst case, there's a claim... Problem technically solved.

 

[Soundwave]

Yes I believe so. Flames literally did this with Derek Ryan 2-3 seasons ago and ran a short bench. Ryan just hung out on the taxi squad and was swapped in whenever he was needed. Although waived and cleared, he was never sent to the AHL.

Oilers I believe should be able to do this too. Worst case, there's a claim... Problem technically solved.

That's interesting ... so if they place Foegele on waivers like in a paper transaction type of thing, they have enough money to sign McLeod?

 

[Fig]

That's interesting ... so if they place Foegele on waivers like in a paper transaction type of thing, they have enough money to sign McLeod?

Derek Ryan placed on waivers

As the Calgary Flames return home from a lengthy road trip, they've ma...

flamesnation.ca

this is what the Flames did.

Someone may have to start in the AHL. So yes, if a player making over 1 mil is placed on waivers in the preseason and not claimed, Oilers should get that 1 Mil AHL cap reduction to be compliant by the regular season. The Oilers have 30 days before they have to send the player down or waive the player again and reset the 30 days or whatever the limit is.

I think Flames did this to accrue cap for the TDL, Oilers will be doing this basically to be cap compliant. Reason different, concept same.

Assuming one way contract. Said player (ie: Foegele who is unlikely to be claimed) basically is just paper transactioned and still makes the same salary.

 

[Soundwave]

Derek Ryan placed on waivers

As the Calgary Flames return home from a lengthy road trip, they've ma...

flamesnation.ca

this is what the Flames did.

Someone may have to start in the AHL. So yes, if a player making over 1 mil is placed on waivers in the preseason and not claimed, Oilers should get that 1 Mil AHL cap reduction to be compliant by the regular season. The Oilers have 30 days before they have to send the player down or waive the player again and reset the 30 days or whatever the limit is.

Assuming one way contract. Said player (ie: Foegele who is unlikely to be claimed) basically is just paper transactioned and still makes the same salary.

Hmmm. Interesting. Is there a down side to doing this?

 

[Fig]

Hmmm. Interesting. Is there a down side to doing this?

Optics of paper transactioning a player, annoying player (ie: Foegele), risking player claimed (ie: Foegele).

Seems to outweigh paying a ton to get cap space to keep McLeod by a lot?

 

[Soundwave]

Optics of paper transactioning a player, annoying player (ie: Foegele), risking player claimed (ie: Foegele).

Seems to outweigh paying a ton to get cap space to keep McLeod by a lot?

Well I guess then that's what the Oilers probably end up doing. It makes more sense than giving up a draft pick to have someone take Foegele, and Foegele is actually not a terrible player, I mean we can use him but moving him was strictly because we need to be cap compliant.

 

[Chips]

He has absolutely no idea and his player models are often wildly inaccurate yet everybody posts them here as if they are gospel.

Can you provide some examples? I haven’t seen every card he’s ever had so idk. There’s been players with outlier seasons that have been anticipated/guessed (more easily with older players than young developing guys) a potential drop or breakout.


Jack Hughes, Nichushkin. Seider is the kind of guy you look at his underlying numbers as a rookie and you feel confident he can become a top Dman despite the raw numbers of how many goals he was on for, or how few points he got on a bad defensive team with less scoring depth.

His model isn't even his model. The source of the model knows what he's talking about though, and the source of that model also knows it's got little predictive value but you'll never hear that part mentioned in a Jfresh tweet.

That’s literally true for all stats including points, and what he does with those stats is the same thing everyone has been doing with stats forever lol. They’re all measure of something that happened in the past. We want to talk about the future because it’s fun but nobody can see the future, so we try to use recent past history.


Someone can score 80 points this year but that doesn’t mean they’ll automatically 80 next year or that their production can’t grow or drop. Maybe the created a ton themselves as a set up guy or maybe they’re a finisher who needs the former. Maybe they boost their offense indirectly with stellar play away from the puck/defense that their teams transition back to offense more often seemless, but how do we know unless you watch literally every game like almost nobody? Some players stay level, some improve, some young players improve one year then drop back down the next etc.


The point of those other measures is there’s so much more to hockey. It’s a game of many many small battles and races, small decisions like positioning or do I attack or sit back etc. The micro stats are where you really see where the overall numbers are coming from. Two players might have similar overall 5v5 defensive impact but for different things (entry defense, controlled exits; maybe he suppresses shots because he’s insane holding the ozone blue line etc). It can still come down to role and how their coach uses them, but that can be said with points too again (how many minutes? With who? Was he on the powerplay? Does their powerplay coach suck so the whole team does or does this individual player drag it down when he’s on vs off, etc)


Everybody wants to talk about next season and the future. That part of the fun of sports. Strong underlying numbers can often be a good sign that a player is improving away from the puck and winning lots of the small battles (Mark Stone, takeaways), or even super effectively just using positioning to steer opponents puck movement (Bergeron, Pulju). *but like I said, it’s still trying to guess the future using the past. Pulju scored a lot more before getting covid and injured. Do we know he’s going to score 40/less than Yamo again? Jfresh says/guesses Pulju is better driver (ie does the little stuff well more consistently) because the numbers say he was last year. They’re both still young however, and maybe Yamo majorly improves as young guys do and or maybe Pulju comes back next year demoralized or having some issue and doesn’t replicate his defense/two way play.

Analytics is especially great for closing the gap in offense vs defense measurement. Defense used to be so much reputation based, not to mention a great team defensive scheme with full commitment can mask personnel deficiencies, so breakdowns to isolate an individuals impact is useful. eg the Oilers did better ratio of chances or shots generated and allowed w Pulju on the ice vs when he was swapped off a line for a different winger, compared to Yamo, and if I remember correctly he seemed to majorly boost zone exit efficiency which isn’t nothing. Means little in the conversation of Pulju vs Yamo for next year tho. They both paced basically the same points last year but development isn’t linear or consistent.

I mean, that's all well and good but wtf is that statement? "occasionally produces next to superstars but hard to say if he is driving the bus".... What players exactly would we expect to be driving the bus on a line with McDavid or Draisaitl? Also players that drive the bus don't make 3.1M.

Nice conclusion Jfresh

I think the wording is just weird. There doesn’t have to be one “driver” and therefore the other two guys arent automatically passengers.

If you don’t want to read the above wall of text, the main part here is that hockey is a series of many small battles, races, and quick decisions on things like positioning and aggressive/passive choices. Analytics measure play away from the puck as well as with it, and try to determine the connection.

A “play driver” is generally a player who does many of those little things well enough consistently/efficiently enough that his team has an easier time getting the puck back and or getting it up the ice, and keeping the puck moving around the O zone or at least disrupting a teams breakout attempt whether with his stick (Mark Stone) or with his positioning (Bergerons IQ being the prime example.


A player who does all those things well to some extent; or just a few of those but at an extreme level would be an elite play driver. A player who does a few pretty well or one exceptionally well is a good driver.


A line with three play drivers (or 4 or 5 w Dmen) is more likely to spend more the game in the other teams zone than a line with only one driver. Basically sorta possession, which is a defense stat primarily and a “scoring potential” secondary in the sense that you naturally have higher odds of scoring the more often you have the puck, but you would still need some finishers. Without, you’d still have great defense impact. This is the Avs top 5 man unit in a nutshell.


Using Pulju as the example again, his centers saw better ratios when he joined their line, far as shots and how badly they outscored opponents. Even tho he wasn’t scoring a lot himself, his linemates were still scoring but they also weren’t allowing as much. To whatever extent some of a players lack of finish can theoretically be mitigated if he well enough makes sure his linemates get the puck back up the ice much more consistently, that they themselves can create more chances.

 

[Ol' Jase]

ahh, godd ol' Jfresh. He thinks JP drives the bus tho. Worst stat analysis in hockey right now

By a fairly significant margin. Pure hack who really doesn’t understand how the raw data is actually measured.

 

[Bank Shot]

Using Pulju as the example again, his centers saw better ratios when he joined their line, far as shots and how badly they outscored opponents. Even tho he wasn’t scoring a lot himself, his linemates were still scoring but they also weren’t allowing as much. To whatever extent some of a players lack of finish can theoretically be mitigated if he well enough makes sure his linemates get the puck back up the ice much more consistently, that they themselves can create more chances.

Puljujarvi isn't the biggest play driver on the team.

He was just the most sheltered. 60% zone starts and put out in situations where he could succeed.

It would be pretty easy to sucker GMs that relied solely on advanced stats.

 

[RangerBoy]

Ryan McLeod isn't getting much more than this QO of $813,750. He has no leverage.

Edmonton has been trying to trade a contract since June.

Minnesota has cap space to add a forward. I heard Mike Russo's podcast yesterday. He said Guerin is being patient looking for the right opportunity. They could add a $3M forward. Probably not much more than that.

 

[Oilslick941611]

Solutions aren't on me, thats a ridiculously stupid fan grasping at straws, but there's many options league wide. Surely 6.1M is enough for one winger upgrade.

Kane is the only 1st line winger on the team. Thats pathetic with 2 number one centers, thats a fact.
Hyman and rnh are complimentary already, neither is a top line player on most other top teams and not even a 2nd liner on some top 6s.

Oilers fans are in love with their amazing league leading top 6 fwd core, i got it. Gg

Surely the "next nichuskin" and a very avg Yamamoto are primed for breakout seasons anytime now, surely.

You seem pretty worked up about the Oilers top 6 in this thread.

 

[scud9]

In the beginning of the last season Oilers's shut down d-pair was Keith - Ceci. After Keith's injury and in play offs (nurse was injured) they had to change it. They had to use Ceci with Nurse and Keith was babysitting Bouchard, who was in trouble at own end.

I still think Oilers need a shut down d. They are gonna miss Keith (who was way too expensive) and Broberg isn't an answer. Otherwise Nurse will be played too much.

 

[Soundwave]

In the beginning of the last season Oilers's shut down d-pair was Keith - Ceci. After Keith's injury and in play offs (nurse was injured) they had to change it. They had to use Ceci with Nurse and Keith was babysitting Bouchard, who was in trouble at own end.

I still think Oilers need a shut down d. They are gonna miss Keith (who was way too expensive) and Broberg isn't an answer. Otherwise Nurse will be played too much.

They've add a D at every trade deadline under Holland ... Mike Green (though he only played like one game, got hurt and then retired, lol), Dimitri Kulikov, and then Brett Kulak last year ... think adding a D-Man at next year's trade deadline or a bit earlier is a safe bet, but this time I think they go all in and put their 1st round pick on the table for a bigger ticket D with salary going out.

 

[McSuper]

Hmmm. Interesting. Is there a down side to doing this?

It can’t be done. The Oilers are over the cap by using LTIR money . We have 300k of LTIR money so any one we waive has to stay down unless we waive someone else. If we weren’t in LTIR we could do either and accumulate cap .

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

That’s a lot for a bottom 6 forward already going into his 6th year with the Oilers and has only hit 40 pts once, only because he saw time with McDavid to pad his stats.

 

[Soundwave]

That’s a lot for a player already going into his 6th year with the Oilers and has only hit 40 pts once, only because he saw time with McDavid to pad his stats.

Between Puljujarvi and Yamamoto you're getting probably about 35-40 goals, maybe more if one or two really break out for about a combined salary hit of 6.1 million. Could be a tad cheaper, but you're probably not getting much cheaper than that.

If Yamamoto scores 20 goals or more again for example, probably the Oilers don't have much trouble trading him for a good pick or something in return. He's still an RFA at the end of the current deal.

 

[Shane Diesel]

By a fairly significant margin. Pure hack who really doesn’t understand how the raw data is actually measured.

What evidence to do have for this claim?