Proposal: EDM - DET Unsexy trade

[Sugi21]

I don't understand why a trade involving Pulju would be considered unsexy...

Sometimes I wonder if he’s even playing with a full deck?

 

[TFHockey]

That's logical. Since I'm not sold on the player, I wouldn't do it, I doubt SY would. 2 decent assets in a rebuild is too much for virtually another bingo ticket. If it was Boeser instead of Poolboy, & we took on Loui @$4.5M (Van retained), it'd be more palatable.

Well first off those two draft picks are bingo tickets, much more than Puljujarvi.

Secondly, gee would you really rather have Boeser? No kidding. You think Benning is braindead enough to make that trade?

 

[ManofSteel55]

Or we save him for Seattle and the expansion draft so we don’t lose Caleb Jones.

This. I could certainly see Holland offering Seattle a 2nd round pick to take Pulujarvi (or Neal if they are willing to take some salary) rather than disrupting our roster.

 

[ManofSteel55]

No one is giving up a late 1st for a guy at best is a 3/4 liner.

This is the issue though, he isn't "at best" a 3/4 liner. He showed flashes of NHL top six skill, and it isn't outlandish to see him become a top six player. The days of considering him a future superstar are over, but there is potential there. The real problem is that he is a risk. If he becomes a top six player, any team trading for him wins in a trade like the one proposed. However, if he doesn't get it together, he will be nothing and then they are giving up assets. I don't know if it is a risk that NHL GM's are willing to take.

 

[njx9]

From DET, I can't imagine trading a bunch of picks to add yet another non-superstar winger to a team that has basically nothing but wingers in the system. Terrible use of draft capital for this team. If we were flush at C and D, then fine, the value's not bad, but it makes absolutely no sense for the Wings.

 

[SupremeTeam16]

From Detroits point of view I don't think Jesse would be a good fit. He needs a team with structures and enough talent and depth where he doesn't need to be a focal point and he can build his confidence, whether in a top 6 roles with two good established linemates or in a third line role against lesser comp but where he still has line mates that aren't play killers.

A team like Boston is who should be taking a shot on Jesse.

 

[Habs Halifax]

I think Holland was asking for a 1st and he isn't getting that IMHO.

Rumor I heard was he wanted a 2nd (true or not). This was before his Liiga season

 

[SupremeTeam16]

Rumor I heard was he wanted a 2nd (true or not). This was before his Liiga season

The most credible rumour came from Friedman who said the ask was a 2nd + prospect. The two teams he brought up as being closest to making a deal was TB and Carolina but they couldn’t agree on the prospect. Speculation was it was Volkov from TB and Gauthier from Car and both teams wanted a lesser prospect going back with the second so nothing ever got done.

 

[Chayos]

Your post said JP played well in Finland last season.
We all saw JP play in the NHL, and he did poorly.

Go look at the first two years on the list of players below and Puljujarvi has similar stats to a lot of these guys who turned out pretty good.

Joe Thorton
Markus Naslund
Brayden Schenn
Nazem Khadri
Mika Zibanejad
Rickard Rakell

There are a ton of Yakupov stories that can be brought up as well. We also know you get bad value on trading this player for the 3rd or b prospects everyone keeps offering. Its worth giving up that shit asset and just keep him and force him decide to pass up on a million or more dollars above what he makes in Finland. The cap is stable for 3 years, so his time to get back is now while he is still making cheap money and doens't have to be a huge cap hit while he builds his much needed NHL resume. He has a career earning of 2.1m so is he willing to pass up on a million dollars?

This player may turn out to be Virtanen 2.0, but that would be his basement. He could still turn into a top 6 forward too. I would not give up on this player yet.

 

[TSA0402]

Sens gave up a 3rd for Filatov. Blues gave up a 3rd for Yakupov. Those would be the more accurate comparables imo.

Sens got a 2nd for Lazar, but lets not joke around unproductive young players generally don't get even marginal assets. They get reclamation project types that currently have lower than 2nd round pick value.

 

[TFHockey]

Sens gave up a 3rd for Filatov. Blues gave up a 3rd for Yakupov. Those would be the more accurate comparables imo.

Sens got a 2nd for Lazar, but lets not joke around unproductive young players generally don't get even marginal assets. They get reclamation project types that currently have lower than 2nd round pick value.

Yakupov was never taught how to play hockey. It's the sad truth. Puljujarvi is a much more complete player than Yakupov ever was. I think your rather pessimistic evaluation of J.P. is off the mark.

 

[Fourier]

Noises coming from the Puljujarvi camp about fences being mended.

It's a busy moment so I hope you rather appreciate a quick translation than start stirring things over some nuances in the article From Yle's (the national broadcasting company in Finland) article:

Markus Lehto (Jesse's agent):

- We had a long, constructive discussion with the organisation. It even lasted for quite a while, so things were gone through pretty throughly. I'd put it this way that in another situation the palaver could've been quite short. There's interest on that side now.

- Let's see where this leads. In life it's always good to go through different options carefully. There's been time and water flown under the bridges. And Jesse's never been calling around that he would need to get first line minutes. It's more about how to get the best out of the player, that was the theme of the video meeting.

- The situation is completely open. Of course he's a young player who wants to play a lot and playing is the best way to develop. The NHL's training camps start at the earliest in the middle of November. I believe Jesse will play before that. We've got good offers from several places, e.g. a KHL contract could be signed any time.

According to the article Karpat (FEL) is the leading option.

- The organisation has taken care of things very well and Oulu is a steady place for a player to take new steps. Of course I won't exclude other options either.

Jesse Puljujärvi sittenkin NHL:ään? Suomalaishyökkääjän agentti kertoo Yle Urheilulle neuvotteluista

(Thanks to @Whyme for the translation.) ​

If I had to guess I'd say he signs but the team lets him play in Karpat until at least the start of the season.

 

[XXIV97]

I would rather hold on to Jesse Puljujarvi until the Seattle expansion draft. The Oilers could leave Puljujarvi unprotected in order to decrease the chance of Seattle drafting player such as Caleb Jones.

 

[TSA0402]

Yakupov was never taught how to play hockey. It's the sad truth. Puljujarvi is a much more complete player than Yakupov ever was. I think your rather pessimistic evaluation of J.P. is off the mark.

Yakupov scored more points than Puljujarvi and not really close either. Whether he was detrimental to his team usually isn't as big of a valuator as points.

I don't feel its pessimistic. There were questions to whether he is an NHL player before and with all due respect, having a good season in Finland doesn't really change anything. You gotta do it here.

 

[Ctrain2k]

No chance the oilers consider this, off the top of my head they’ve reportedly turned down Kostin, Gauthier, Volkov (+?), Andersson+2nd etc. for Puljujarvi. Maybe Holland would bite on Rasmussen considering they’re pretty similar prospects and Holland drafted him.

 

[TFHockey]

Yakupov scored more points than Puljujarvi and not really close either. Whether he was detrimental to his team usually isn't as big of a valuator as points.

I don't feel its pessimistic. There were questions to whether he is an NHL player before and with all due respect, having a good season in Finland doesn't really change anything. You gotta do it here.

This is an argument used by people who have never watched either of these players play. A box score isn't going to tell you how clueless Yak was when it came to the actual game of hockey. The poor kid would skate down the ice, turn the puck over, skate back as hard as he could and have no idea where to go once he was in the defensive zone. Like totally clueless. Eakins would make Yak point to a guy he was supposed to cover while on the ice. Like he was playing Pee Wee hockey. Just brutal.

Anyway, a good year over in Europe did not hurt Puljujarvi's value. Can't agree with you on that at all.

 

[bucks_oil]

Go look at the first two years on the list of players below and Puljujarvi has similar stats to a lot of these guys who turned out pretty good.

Joe Thorton
Markus Naslund
Brayden Schenn
Nazem Khadri
Mika Zibanejad
Rickard Rakell

There are a ton of Yakupov stories that can be brought up as well. We also know you get bad value on trading this player for the 3rd or b prospects everyone keeps offering. Its worth giving up that shit asset and just keep him and force him decide to pass up on a million or more dollars above what he makes in Finland. The cap is stable for 3 years, so his time to get back is now while he is still making cheap money and doens't have to be a huge cap hit while he builds his much needed NHL resume. He has a career earning of 2.1m so is he willing to pass up on a million dollars?

This player may turn out to be Virtanen 2.0, but that would be his basement. He could still turn into a top 6 forward too. I would not give up on this player yet.

I think Drouin is a recent comp as well... both in terms of stats, attitude, hold-out and (I hope) final resolution. Drouin was also disappointed with his role after 3 seasons post-draft. He refused to report to AHL. Then changed his tune after a heart-to-heart with management... then got a sniff of action in the playoffs, played a full season the next year and was traded (immediately) once his value recovered.

Yzerman was the GM... and we know where he got his tutelage.

If I'm a betting man, Puljujarvi is on the Oil opening roster for the 20/21 season and definitely traded by 2022.

 

[rhef3]

wings counter with cholo for pool party straight up

 

[Boondock]

And the Oilers have no reason to accommodate the trade unless they get an asset that they feel is worth the trade as they retain his rights for 5 more years. A second round pick has less that a 10 % chance of being as good as Puljujarvi already has shown himself to be, and even then it would very likely be 3 to 4 years before the team would realise even that level of production at the NHL level. At this point in time the teams best strategy is to hold onto his rights and try to get him to resign or to use him in a package for a player who can contribute immediately Trading him for an asset that will have no impact at the NHL level for 4 years does nothing to improve the team right now and is very unlikely to ever impact the NHL team in any significant way. At some point that may very well change.

Now if you are a fan of the Red Wings, or a fan of any other team and you feel a 2nd or 3rd is worth more to your team than Puljujarvi, that is your perogative. My post is looking at this strictly from an Oiler perspective.

Where do you get your math and what are your metrics? In his own draft year there are more than 10% of the 2nd round that I would say have been better in the NHL than Pulju (DeBrincat, Girard, Hart, Hronek), and another 15-20% that have developed as good as Pulju (Benson, Asplund, Kyrou, Hajek, Clague, Dube). So by my math in his own draft year there is roughly 30% of the 2nd round that has similar or more value than Pulju. Now I don't think you sell low on prospects but D+4, a trade request and leaving North America diminish some of the value he created with his NHL/AHL play.

There are a lot of players taken in the 1st round that have not panned out and were moved for 2nd round picks or less. The value is probably close, but I understand not wanting to sell a 4th overall for a 2nd +.

 

[TysonBarrie]

I’d do it for a 3rd and 4th

Lol I know which team you cheer for then

 

[LarKing]

Lol I know which team you cheer for then

Shoot did my username give it away?

 

[Boondock]

Go look at the first two years on the list of players below and Puljujarvi has similar stats to a lot of these guys who turned out pretty good.

Joe Thorton
Markus Naslund
Brayden Schenn
Nazem Khadri
Mika Zibanejad
Rickard Rakell

There are a ton of Yakupov stories that can be brought up as well. We also know you get bad value on trading this player for the 3rd or b prospects everyone keeps offering. Its worth giving up that shit asset and just keep him and force him decide to pass up on a million or more dollars above what he makes in Finland. The cap is stable for 3 years, so his time to get back is now while he is still making cheap money and doens't have to be a huge cap hit while he builds his much needed NHL resume. He has a career earning of 2.1m so is he willing to pass up on a million dollars?

This player may turn out to be Virtanen 2.0, but that would be his basement. He could still turn into a top 6 forward too. I would not give up on this player yet.

So you went back to the 1991 draft to find 5 positive comparables to Pulju? I have issue with a few of your examples - Thorton by the time he is the age Pulju is now he had 179 pts in the NHL including a 37 goal season, JP has 37 total NHL points. Schenn and Kadri both developed consistently in their first 4 years post draft and have far better stats than JP. Schenn averaged 0.55 pts/gm in his first 4 years post draft and 1.17 pts/gm in the AHL, Kadri averaged 0.64pts/gm in his first 4 seasons post draft and 0.9 pts/gm in the AHL, and both had their best seasons interrupted by a lock out. JP has averaged 0.27 pts/gm in the NHL and 0.7 pts/gm in the AHL. Naslund and Rakell both were drafted later in the first round so shouldn't be a comparable for a 4th overall but even with that said, bith these players continued to develop every season post draft until their peaks, JP seemed to stall out in his North American development. As you also pointed out there are the other players not mentioned that didn't show development in their first 4 years and never really got their NHL careers together. For every Schenn and Kadri there is a Scott Glennie and a Jared Cowen, for every Rakell and Zibanejad there is a Ryan Murphy and a Mark McNeil.

 

[Chayos]

I think Drouin is a recent comp as well... both in terms of stats, attitude, hold-out and (I hope) final resolution. Drouin was also disappointed with his role after 3 seasons post-draft. He refused to report to AHL. Then changed his tune after a heart-to-heart with management... then got a sniff of action in the playoffs, played a full season the next year and was traded (immediately) once his value recovered.

Yzerman was the GM... and we know where he got his tutelage.

If I'm a betting man, Puljujarvi is on the Oil opening roster for the 20/21 season and definitely traded by 2022.

I am not going to take that bet. I am willing to bet he is on that 3rd line with AA and Haas or another player we pick up for 3C

 

[Fourier]

Where do you get your math and what are your metrics? In his own draft year there are more than 10% of the 2nd round that I would say have been better in the NHL than Pulju (DeBrincat, Girard, Hart, Hronek), and another 15-20% that have developed as good as Pulju (Benson, Asplund, Kyrou, Hajek, Clague, Dube). So by my math in his own draft year there is roughly 30% of the 2nd round that has similar or more value than Pulju. Now I don't think you sell low on prospects but D+4, a trade request and leaving North America diminish some of the value he created with his NHL/AHL play.

There are a lot of players taken in the 1st round that have not panned out and were moved for 2nd round picks or less. The value is probably close, but I understand not wanting to sell a 4th overall for a 2nd +.

To be honest I probably should have said "better" than he has already shown to be and my 10% number probably should have been ~~15% so I take your point. But it does not change the calculation as far as a trade is concerned.

Because he was a #4 pick and because he left in a huff I think Puljujarvi is often under rated in terms of what he did at a very young age. He scored 12 goals in 65 games as a 19 year old and even in his draft plus 1 year he had stretches where he was dominant in the AHL. When healthy Puljujarvi has actually shown that he can paly at a third line level in the NHL and while it is not clear how much he improved this year I think it is fair to say that he is basically at the level of a mid level third line winger in terms of where he is at this stage in his career. Such players are pretty sure bets to make the 200 game threshold. Historically only 18% of the forwards drafted in round 2 make 200 games and 12% of the defensemen make that mark.

https://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

Amongst that group it is not unreasonable to suggest that no more than 2/3 of those forwards would be top 6 regulars.

It's easy to list guys like Benson, Asplund, Kyrou, Hajek, Clague, and Dube. But none of these guys are all that likely to be much better than the current version of Puljujarvi.

 

[Chayos]

So you went back to the 1991 draft to find 5 positive comparables to Pulju? I have issue with a few of your examples - Thorton by the time he is the age Pulju is now he had 179 pts in the NHL including a 37 goal season, JP has 37 total NHL points. Schenn and Kadri both developed consistently in their first 4 years post draft and have far better stats than JP. Schenn averaged 0.55 pts/gm in his first 4 years post draft and 1.17 pts/gm in the AHL, Kadri averaged 0.64pts/gm in his first 4 seasons post draft and 0.9 pts/gm in the AHL, and both had their best seasons interrupted by a lock out. JP has averaged 0.27 pts/gm in the NHL and 0.7 pts/gm in the AHL. Naslund and Rakell both were drafted later in the first round so shouldn't be a comparable for a 4th overall but even with that said, bith these players continued to develop every season post draft until their peaks, JP seemed to stall out in his North American development. As you also pointed out there are the other players not mentioned that didn't show development in their first 4 years and never really got their NHL careers together. For every Schenn and Kadri there is a Scott Glennie and a Jared Cowen, for every Rakell and Zibanejad there is a Ryan Murphy and a Mark McNeil.

I agree with what you are saying on hits and misses. On the comparisons by age you list above, it is obvious that his North American development stalled but he dealt with the situation by going to Europe. This player was dealt a bad hand with the coaching and management zoo the oilers had going on. He left to Finland and had a productive year in a much lower tier of hockey. If he had those numbers in that league 3 years ago we would be jumping for joy, but now it’s tainted?

I feel Drouin And Both Stromes are good comparable sales for Puljujarvi”s situation. They are not the players they were projected to be but they are still nhl players.