Proposal: EDM - DET Unsexy trade

[Ishad]

A conditional 2021 3rd that becomes a 2022 2nd if Jesse scores 15 goals for the wings seems right.

 

[Fourier]

Let's put this in perspective. Puljujarvi just turned 22. By age 19 he had scored 13g and had 33pts in 49 ahl games. He'd also played 83 NHL games with 13g and 28 points. Anthony Mantha at the same age as Puljujarvi is right now had played 10 NHL games with 2g and 3 points. His best ahl year he had 21g and 45 points in 60 games. This year Puljujarvi scored 24g and 54pts in 56g in a league that is statistically slightly tougher to score in than the AHL. How many Red Wing fans would have traded Mantha at 22 for a conditional 3rd??

The reality is that even where his game is right now Puljujarvi still has better potential than the vast majority of players who are chosen in the last half of the first round of a typical draft. So despite his perceived HF trade value it would be foolish for the Oilers to even consider most of the offers you see here. They are far better off trying to get him back in the NHl.

 

[ConnorMcNugesaitl]

A conditional 2021 3rd that becomes a 2022 2nd if Jesse scores 15 goals for the wings seems right.

Easy pass

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

Let's put this in perspective. Puljujarvi just turned 22. By age 19 he had scored 13g and had 33pts in 49 ahl games. He'd also played 83 NHL games with 13g and 28 points. Anthony Mantha at the same age as Puljujarvi is right now had played 10 NHL games with 2g and 3 points. His best ahl year he had 21g and 45 points in 60 games. This year Puljujarvi scored 24g and 54pts in 56g in a league that is statistically slightly tougher to score in than the AHL. How many Red Wing fans would have traded Mantha at 22 for a conditional 3rd??

The reality is that even where his game is right now Puljujarvi still has better potential than the vast majority of players who are chosen in the last half of the first round of a typical draft. So despite his perceived HF trade value it would be foolish for the Oilers to even consider most of the offers you see here. They are far better off trying to get him back in the NHl.

Strangely, your perspective leaves out a trade request and closing in on 400 days of not having an NHL contract. Lets not pretend those aren't huge parts being played in the trade proposals you're seeing here.

 

[Darkwinter]

So with the trade offer does Edmonton at least get a kiss after being f@#$%

 

[Darkwinter]

Hollands delusional if he thinks he's getting a 1st for Puljujarvi even a late 1st rounder isn't happening.

Same could be said about Detroit if they think their offer is good enough

 

[Fourier]

Strangely, your perspective leaves out a trade request and closing in on 400 days of not having an NHL contract. Lets not pretend those aren't huge parts being played in the trade proposals you're seeing here.

And the Oilers have no reason to accommodate the trade unless they get an asset that they feel is worth the trade as they retain his rights for 5 more years. A second round pick has less that a 10 % chance of being as good as Puljujarvi already has shown himself to be, and even then it would very likely be 3 to 4 years before the team would realise even that level of production at the NHL level. At this point in time the teams best strategy is to hold onto his rights and try to get him to resign or to use him in a package for a player who can contribute immediately Trading him for an asset that will have no impact at the NHL level for 4 years does nothing to improve the team right now and is very unlikely to ever impact the NHL team in any significant way. At some point that may very well change.

Now if you are a fan of the Red Wings, or a fan of any other team and you feel a 2nd or 3rd is worth more to your team than Puljujarvi, that is your perogative. My post is looking at this strictly from an Oiler perspective.

 

[Leafs87]

We're close. I think a 2nd and a 4th is pretty reasonable.

I don’t know. The Detroit second may likely be a 32-40th pick. Lately those picks have yielded first round quality prospects

 

[TFHockey]

I don’t know. The Detroit second may likely be a 32-40th pick. Lately those picks have yielded first round quality prospects

The average chance of a successful draft pick in the 2nd round is 34%

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

 

[Leafs87]

The average chance of a successful draft pick in the 2nd round is 34%

NHL Draft Pick Probabilities

that’s historically. 2000-2009 which that article captures was not a particularly great scouting period. Which is still 1 in 3. I am saying lately the 32-40 spot gives you good prospect. A lot of times similar to 1st round.

 

[Number1RedWingsFan52]

Same could be said about Detroit if they think their offer is good enough

Who cares, Detroit has no use for Jesse Puljujarvi at best he's a 3rd liner that we already have tons of. Puljujarvi isn't going to make us any better.

 

[LTIR]

Who cares, Detroit has no use for Jesse Puljujarvi at best he's a 3rd liner that we already have tons of. Puljujarvi isn't going to make us any better.

As if Puljujarvi won't be giving Zadina a run for the money as top 6 RW on this DET.
At worst Pulju will be an excellent linemates of Filppula as 3RW.


At best he will be leading DET in goals especially if given top unit PP time.

 

[TFHockey]

that’s historically. 2000-2009 which that article captures was not a particularly great scouting period. Which is still 1 in 3. I am saying lately the 32-40 spot gives you good prospect. A lot of times similar to 1st round.

If you read the entire article it goes on to predict the 2020 draft. Round 2, 32-62 is 35%.

Puljujarvi will likely be better than anyone picked in the 2nd round.

 

[Wingsfan 4 life]

And the Oilers have no reason to accommodate the trade unless they get an asset that they feel is worth the trade as they retain his rights for 5 more years. A second round pick has less that a 10 % chance of being as good as Puljujarvi already has shown himself to be, and even then it would very likely be 3 to 4 years before the team would realise even that level of production at the NHL level. At this point in time the teams best strategy is to hold onto his rights and try to get him to resign or to use him in a package for a player who can contribute immediately Trading him for an asset that will have no impact at the NHL level for 4 years does nothing to improve the team right now and is very unlikely to ever impact the NHL team in any significant way. At some point that may very well change.

Now if you are a fan of the Red Wings, or a fan of any other team and you feel a 2nd or 3rd is worth more to your team than Puljujarvi, that is your perogative. My post is looking at this strictly from an Oiler perspective.

First day on the trade boards? Nobody gives a rats ass about the other teams perspective here.

Apparently the OP didn't get briefed on this perspective. Maybe if he/she was clued in, you'd be spared from these offers from fans who've probably just realized that Puljujarvi still exists because of this thread.

 

[McVespa99]

I would rather keep him and try to bring him back to Edmonton than give him up for anything less than a high 2nd and a 3rd. He has so much raw physical talent He is still only 22. Edmonton screwed him up big time. I would like to see us try to correct that now that we have competent management.

 

[The Nuge]

I don’t know. The Detroit second may likely be a 32-40th pick. Lately those picks have yielded first round quality prospects

The offer was for Edmonton’s own pick, which is 20 picks further back in the draft. Detroit’s 2nd with performance based conditions on the 4th might make it a tempting offer (say something like it becomes a 2021 3rd if he scores 15 goals next year, and we get our 2021 2nd back if he scores 25)

 

[Dr Quincy]

No one is giving up a late 1st for a guy at best is a 3/4 liner.

IDK the Wings once traded a 1st rd pick for Kyle Quincey.

I'd rather have a 3/4 liner.

 

[T_Cage]

I wouldn’t give a 2 plus 4 for him cause I don’t see him actually pulling it together in the nhl

but to those who say they wouldn’t trade puli because they think the odds of him becoming a top 6 are better than the typical 2nd, that’s a fair argument too. It’s have to be the right team that can afford to take on the high risk for a potential reward

 

[Syckle78]

Not willing to trade our 2nd. I would do Edmontons 2nd and our 3rd next year. I would say 80%+ chance that pick is the first pick of the 3rd. Probably the closest you're going to get to two 2nds or late 1st value.

 

[oobga]

I don't understand why a trade involving Pulju would be considered unsexy...

 

[TFHockey]

Not willing to trade our 2nd. I would do Edmontons 2nd and our 3rd next year. I would say 80%+ chance that pick is the first pick of the 3rd. Probably the closest you're going to get to two 2nds or late 1st value.

That's actually better than my initial proposal. Sure Edmonton's 2nd 2020 Detroit 3rd 2021.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Not willing to trade our 2nd. I would do Edmontons 2nd and our 3rd next year. I would say 80%+ chance that pick is the first pick of the 3rd. Probably the closest you're going to get to two 2nds or late 1st value.

Thats pretty good value IMO.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

Not willing to trade our 2nd. I would do Edmontons 2nd and our 3rd next year. I would say 80%+ chance that pick is the first pick of the 3rd. Probably the closest you're going to get to two 2nds or late 1st value.

So you're okay with us giving EDM a late 1st value for the Pool cleaner? What?

 

[Syckle78]

So you're okay with us giving EDM a late 1st value for the Pool cleaner? What?

If that's how you want to look at it. I don't buy into ] the chart value of draft picks. To me a later second and third will never have the value of a late first. You'll always have a much better chance of gaining impact on the ice with a late 1st pick than a later 2nd and 3rd. What in reality I'm willing to trade is the chances of a young former top 5 pick providing impact on the ice than that of a later 2nd and 3rd pick developing. I think I have the higher odds of gaining a meaningful nhl player with this trade. If I were trading an actual late 1st i would think my odds would be worse.

 

[Ghost of Ethan Hunt]

If that's how you want to look at it. I don't buy into ] the chart value of draft picks. To me a later second and third will never have the value of a late first. You'll always have a much better chance of gaining impact on the ice with a late 1st pick than a later 2nd and 3rd. What in reality I'm willing to trade is the chances of a young former top 5 pick providing impact on the ice than that of a later 2nd and 3rd pick developing. I think I have the higher odds of gaining a meaningful nhl player with this trade. If I were trading an actual late 1st i would think my odds would be worse.

That's logical. Since I'm not sold on the player, I wouldn't do it, I doubt SY would. 2 decent assets in a rebuild is too much for virtually another bingo ticket. If it was Boeser instead of Poolboy, & we took on Loui @$4.5M (Van retained), it'd be more palatable.