Confirmed Trade: [EDM/CHI] Duncan Keith and Tim Soderlund for Caleb Jones and Conditional 2nd/3rd round pick | Part 2

[ManByng]

I just don't understand making such a massive gamble on a 38 year old defenseman coming off 2 horrid seasons rebounding. Even if Keith plays well and is top 4ish quality there is limited upside to this deal. And a lot of downside if he struggles. Would be about a 1/4 of their cap going to useless players. That's cap space that could have gone to getting McDavid and Draisaitl some legitimate top 6 help.

If Keith sucks then the Oilers can buy out his last season if need be! Not the end of the world

 

[ManByng]

What a disastrous move. Congrats Blackhawks.

 

[Taylorst]

You literally just undid your argument

People don't have a problem with Keith. People have a problem with Holland getting completely destroyed on the trade and not understanding value.

You say "if Keith was open to be traded anywhere..." THAT IS THE POINT. There were NO other teams involved, therefore Holland could have played hard ball, waited it out, and forced them to either keep Keith or retain salary.

I don't mind Keith at all as a player or leader. I just mind that Holland didn't do his job.

You keep confusing the complaints on this board with Keith hate. It's not that at all. It is Holland hate.

No your missing the entire point. Chicago had no legal obligation to trade keith just because keith suddenly realized he wanted to be closer to his son. Chicago showed keith the respect he earned by trying to facilitate a trade if edmonton and Chicago couldn't agree to the trade Chicago was willing to walk.

Now from Holland standpoint he has klef out for the season , a huge gap in the ld with no stability there. Free agency is a crap shoot and to costly plus a trade for any younger dman say a Jones will cost edmonton a ton of picks and assets that's not feasible.

You have a expansion draft coming and your going to lose some players.

In the end keith is the perfect defense man to trade for his cap hit is reasonable its basically a wash with klef being on LTIR. Keith brings a veteran leadership. Knowledge, Winning attitude, experience and he is in great shape. Keith can play up and down the lineup and in any situation without anyone worrying. Nurse while he is younger still doesn't have the full grasp and he and McDavid will all learn and benefit from Keith's knowledge.

Sure keith is 37 but he still can play and skate, and he's probably in better shape than most of those kids.

You should always look at the entire picture before you play arm chair gm. Your very shortsighted and lacking in each players tangible

 

[StrictlyCommercial]

No your missing the entire point. Chicago had no legal obligation to trade keith just because keith suddenly realized he wanted to be closer to his son. Chicago showed keith the respect he earned by trying to facilitate a trade if edmonton and Chicago couldn't agree to the trade Chicago was willing to walk.

Now from Holland standpoint he has klef out for the season , a huge gap in the ld with no stability there. Free agency is a crap shoot and to costly plus a trade for any younger dman say a Jones will cost edmonton a ton of picks and assets that's not feasible.

You have a expansion draft coming and your going to lose some players.

In the end keith is the perfect defense man to trade for his cap hit is reasonable its basically a wash with klef being on LTIR. Keith brings a veteran leadership. Knowledge, Winning attitude, experience and he is in great shape. Keith can play up and down the lineup and in any situation without anyone worrying. Nurse while he is younger still doesn't have the full grasp and he and McDavid will all learn and benefit from Keith's knowledge.

Sure keith is 37 but he still can play and skate, and he's probably in better shape than most of those kids.

You should always look at the entire picture before you play arm chair gm. Your very shortsighted and lacking in each players tangible

If Chicago doesn't trade him, he probably retires, which hits them with Cap Recapture penalties. Chicago were clearly incentivised to move him.

 

[cupcrazyman]

Seriously, Holland didn't need to make this trade. Smells like a desperate move.

5.5mil Keith - 4.1mil Klefbom= 1.4mil

It's safe to say Klefbom most likely isn't playing this year and Holland is thinking Keith is really only costing 1.4 mil.

Can't believe Chicago didn't retain any salary.

 

[cpsman]

No your missing the entire point. Chicago had no legal obligation to trade keith just because keith suddenly realized he wanted to be closer to his son. Chicago showed keith the respect he earned by trying to facilitate a trade if edmonton and Chicago couldn't agree to the trade Chicago was willing to walk.

Now from Holland standpoint he has klef out for the season , a huge gap in the ld with no stability there. Free agency is a crap shoot and to costly plus a trade for any younger dman say a Jones will cost edmonton a ton of picks and assets that's not feasible.

You have a expansion draft coming and your going to lose some players.

In the end keith is the perfect defense man to trade for his cap hit is reasonable its basically a wash with klef being on LTIR. Keith brings a veteran leadership. Knowledge, Winning attitude, experience and he is in great shape. Keith can play up and down the lineup and in any situation without anyone worrying. Nurse while he is younger still doesn't have the full grasp and he and McDavid will all learn and benefit from Keith's knowledge.

Sure keith is 37 but he still can play and skate, and he's probably in better shape than most of those kids.

You should always look at the entire picture before you play arm chair gm. Your very shortsighted and lacking in each players tangible

No I didn't miss any of those points. Not a single one of them negate that Holland LOST THE DEAL ON VALUE. That is seriously the only point I was making and you keep ignoring that. For Pete's sake, just admit he lost the deal. I don't care if you love Keith and want him on the team and think he improves the team. I'm not disputing ANY of that.

You just cannot seem to admit that value for value, Holland lost. Period.

The vast majority of fans, and media personalities agree. Yet somehow you as an armchair GM apparently are the only one besides Holland that is seeing the entire picture?

Please... get off your high horse and stop drinking the Oilers KoolAid

 

[Akrapovince]

I don’t hate it but I just can’t believe there isn’t a younger player that has higher impact that I wouldn’t have just gone for..

Buying a brand new Honda Civic for $30,000 seems more reasonable than buying a 2008 BMW w/ high mileage for 10k... especially when you need a car and only have 150,000$ in the bank (with a need for other home improvements).

No ones saying that the 2008 BMW isn’t a good car or won’t get you from point A to point B... but just don’t see the reason why you’d do it and gamble on the fact that it won’t do the job, when you really really really need it to do so. Like I get that it may work out, but just seems like an unnecessary gamble.

 

[Zerotonine]

Obviously it seems as a big overpayment, but i think Keith is about to bring something to the room we haven't had. He was solely brought in go help Connor no questions about it.

How much he helps is a puzzle right now, everyone throwing mud at this deal could easily eat crow next season. Then again we been here before amd there could just as easily be alot of intold you so, and even more so edmontons gonna keep on being edmonton

 

[EdmFlyersfan]

If Keith sucks then the Oilers can buy out his last season if need be! Not the end of the world

How many "1 season's" is Holland going to waste of McDavid and Drai?

 

[Bubba88]

People really overrate players that have won Cups in the past and winning culture like its some kind of good luck charm. Getting a vet like Keith who has won is nice but its needs to be a cheap depth signing only. This move makes it look like the Oilers are going to rely on Keith playing a major role. They need to focus bringing good players first and than signing vets who have Cup experience.

Keith is still a 2nd pairing guy... he is a player that will help on the ice. This trade was adding a good player, that combines the experience/leadership/compete level with on ice play.

btw Keith gets 6,7 % of the Cap, thats solid number but not the end of the world. Hawks on their 1st Cup brought in experience in the bottom 6 with signing Madden for nearly 5% of the Cap. This happens all the time.

 

[Cubs2024WSChamps]

You know, now that I think about it, I think the Oilers did themselves a solid with this.

DK' s best trait is his outlet pass. If all he has to do is get possession and let McDavid do the heavy lifting, the Oilers kind of got a steal.

And before people say Patrick Kane, there is no planet in the universe Kane is as fast as McDavid.

Now I'm wondering if I should have sold those McDavid Cup rookies......

 

[biturbo19]

I don’t hate it but I just can’t believe there isn’t a younger player that has higher impact that I wouldn’t have just gone for..

Buying a brand new Honda Civic for $30,000 seems more reasonable than buying a 2008 BMW w/ high mileage for 10k... especially when you need a car and only have 150,000$ in the bank (with a need for other home improvements).

No ones saying that the 2008 BMW isn’t a good car or won’t get you from point A to point B... but just don’t see the reason why you’d do it and gamble on the fact that it won’t do the job, when you really really really need it to do so. Like I get that it may work out, but just seems like an unnecessary gamble.

Depends on which BMW really...but i'd definitely do that, personally. Especially an '08, from the era before they basically lost their way. Just do a proper inspection, plan for proper maintenance, and it's a lot less of a "risk". Rather than eating a face full of depreciation on a brand new econobox bland mobile. Even extending the application of metaphor here...if they're both going to, "get you from point A to point B", why would you pay three times as much for that? Especially when the "cheaper" option comes with oodles more character and fun upside for when you hit that right road on the right day and can really enjoy the pedigree and design that doesn't just altogether disappear over the years.

Continuing the metaphor further...obviously you want to make sure you've really combed the old thing over with a pre-purchase inspection, know what you're looking for and signs of trouble/common failure points, make sure it's not running "down a few cylinders" or "rusting to bits" or something. Set aside something for appropriate maintenance and upkeep. Establish a reasonable plan/expectations for use, etc. But if you can mitigate a lot of the "risk" like that...why pay for an similarly "functional" white good with less "upside", when you can have a genuine article for a third the cost?


Despite hfboard typical consensus...newer isn't always better.

 

[Niten Ichi Ryu]

I see a player that's going to fit perfectly, with all the leadership attributes and wall of accolades, his character and work ethic, Duncan Keith is an excellent ingredient for Edmonton. Honestly very excited to see the 2015 Conn Smythe MVP put on the orange and blue (or dark navy), and build chemistry with Leon and Connor as they progress throughout the season.

And to be honest, the no salary retention is not preferred, but it's not as dire as people are making it to be. The rumor prior to the trade, was 30-50% retention; let's say they agreed on 30%, which works out to be 3.87M from the 5.53M, which would be a savings of approximately 1.65M, for each of the next 2 years. Coming into the off season, if we include a buyout (Neal or Koskinen), Edmonton had nearly 30M in cap space. Are we really losing out sh*t for 1.65M savings in cap space for 2 years? Also can't forget Caleb was getting paid 850k, so now that's off the books as well.

But who would know the true value of this deal? The fans, no. The media, nope. The players? Bingo. Let's not forget, it was Duncan Keith's Blackhawks that eliminated the Oilers in their own city (covid bubble playoffs). They know him very well, and played him in a 4 game series just one year ago.
Both Elliot Freidman and Bob Stauffer (two reliable media sources when it comes to insider information), confirmed that the players found him difficult to deal with in the 2020 playoffs, and a core player stating this is exactly what they needed.

Making the case for Duncan Keith, and how Edmonton Oilers players feel about the trade | Edmonton JournalMaking the case for Duncan Keith, and how Edmonton Oilers players feel about the trade | Edmonton Journal

Friedman: Edmonton Oilers players said Duncan Keith was “difficult defensively” in Edmonton bubble

So, I'm pretty stoked about Duncan Keith coming to Oil country. And I find it embarrassing for our city, the negative reaction to this deal. Edmonton was his #1 destination (something that's nearly unheard of in this league); the 3 time Cup winner, 2015 playoff MVP and named Top 100 players of all time, wants to come here and help this team take that next step. Love it, and he's coming in at the perfect time, in McDavid and Draisaitl's prime and as the team continues to stride towards being a premier yearly contender.

Welcome to Edmonton Duncan Keith

 

[ManByng]

How many "1 season's" is Holland going to waste of McDavid and Drai?

I think there’s a realization that time is becoming short with the Oilers running out of years with McDavid and Leon, but not everything fits into a nice neat little pile, just ask OV how long it can take to win a cup! And I think your missing the point that Keith is being brought in to bring much needed veteran and cup winning experience to the D and not to try and win a Norris!

 

[Akrapovince]

Depends on which BMW really...but i'd definitely do that, personally. Especially an '08, from the era before they basically lost their way. Just do a proper inspection, plan for proper maintenance, and it's a lot less of a "risk". Rather than eating a face full of depreciation on a brand new econobox bland mobile. Even extending the application of metaphor here...if they're both going to, "get you from point A to point B", why would you pay three times as much for that? Especially when the "cheaper" option comes with oodles more character and fun upside for when you hit that right road on the right day and can really enjoy the pedigree and design that doesn't just altogether disappear over the years.

Continuing the metaphor further...obviously you want to make sure you've really combed the old thing over with a pre-purchase inspection, know what you're looking for and signs of trouble/common failure points, make sure it's not running "down a few cylinders" or "rusting to bits" or something. Set aside something for appropriate maintenance and upkeep. Establish a reasonable plan/expectations for use, etc. But if you can mitigate a lot of the "risk" like that...why pay for an similarly "functional" white good with less "upside", when you can have a genuine article for a third the cost?


Despite hfboard typical consensus...newer isn't always better.

That’s just the thing... The metaphoric BMW in this scenario obviously has miles on it where other comparable models have started to breakdown. And the question that remains is did the Oilers do proper pre purchase inspection? and from
recent pro scouting idk if they did.

Oilers don’t have the money for up keep and maintenance on this metaphoric BMW, especially when they need to save money for their garage roof falling and a new kitchen renovations.

All for what? Metaphoric intangibles like status, appearance, luxury, which in hockey translates to locker room leadership, teaching the young etc.

It’s just an unnecessary risk for a “family” to take when they could spend their money elsewhere, and they REALLY need to get from Point A to point B.

And for what it’s worth I have a 2008 335i that I would not trade in for a newer ecobox. But if I were in the Oilers position I think I’d opt for the safer, more expensive option. (Which despite typical hfboards consensus, in the long run paying for something right upfront ends up being a lot less expensive. I.e paying first rounders for rentals as opposed to paying a little more for cheap contracts with multiple years/longevity a la Coleman/Goodrow.)

Long story short:

No ones saying the BMW isn’t worth 10k or that it won’t do the job. But the 20,000$ discount you get to get into a premium car doesn’t outweigh the benefits of knowing you have warranty and peace of mind in a newer car.

Definitely not against the trade or the value but I personally would’ve gone a different direction.

 

[Taylorst]

If Chicago doesn't trade him, he probably retires, which hits them with Cap Recapture penalties. Chicago were clearly incentivised to move him.

No keith had no plans to retire . Don't add things that aren't based on facts.

 

[Taylorst]

I think there’s a realization that time is becoming short with the Oilers running out of years with McDavid and Leon, but not everything fits into a nice neat little pile, just ask OV how long it can take to win a cup! And I think your missing the point that Keith is being brought in to bring much needed veteran and cup winning experience to the D and not to try and win a Norris!

Very well said. People, players and even GM don't truly understand or realize how hard it is to win a stanley cup. It takes alot of things to line up perfectly, no amount of superstar power is a guarantee to a cup victory . Chemistry, timely goal scoring , clutch goals and a defense and goalie who make the big saves .

 

[Taylorst]

No I didn't miss any of those points. Not a single one of them negate that Holland LOST THE DEAL ON VALUE. That is seriously the only point I was making and you keep ignoring that. For Pete's sake, just admit he lost the deal. I don't care if you love Keith and want him on the team and think he improves the team. I'm not disputing ANY of that.

You just cannot seem to admit that value for value, Holland lost. Period.

The vast majority of fans, and media personalities agree. Yet somehow you as an armchair GM apparently are the only one besides Holland that is seeing the entire picture?

Please... get off your high horse and stop drinking the Oilers KoolAid

It's become so obvious you believe in everything most of these talking heads post. I laid out crystal clear Holland view of the situation and what keith brings to the team . You're just stuck in some delusional world that quite frankly you seriously know nothing about the situation.

Your entitled to your own opinion , it doesn't make your opinion fact or reality.

 

[KevinRedkey]

Jones is a dime a dozen player. Every team has a guy like him, and they carry next to no value.

The downside for the Oilers is the cap used - not the assets they gave away.

 

[McDrai]

Oilers overpay in a trade. More news at 6.

 

[bucks_oil]

No I didn't miss any of those points. Not a single one of them negate that Holland LOST THE DEAL ON VALUE. That is seriously the only point I was making and you keep ignoring that. For Pete's sake, just admit he lost the deal. I don't care if you love Keith and want him on the team and think he improves the team. I'm not disputing ANY of that.

You just cannot seem to admit that value for value, Holland lost. Period.

The vast majority of fans, and media personalities agree. Yet somehow you as an armchair GM apparently are the only one besides Holland that is seeing the entire picture?

Please... get off your high horse and stop drinking the Oilers KoolAid

Wait... so you know all of the nuances of the negotiation? That seems quite a high horse as well.

We all only know what the media knew... which evidently isn't that much. 1) They laughed off the kid who called into the radio in Edmonton 2 months ago and laid out the rationale (including referencing Keith's kid) as the reason he would be coming to Edmonton. Didn't even follow it up with a legit question or probe the source. 2) Everyone was convinced Holland would get some cap relief and he didn't... so clearly they also didn't know the full extent of the discussion with Chicago.

I can agree with you, that on the face of it, Chicago seems to have stuck to their position (no retention) and won that part of the negotiation. But you can't know where they started from (perhaps they wanted more than Jones)... you only know where they ended up.

Second... taking a big step back. One team is getting an aging but healthy and fit 1st ballot Hall of Famer... who may still play a half-dozen years (most Norris winners do)... who is paid about $2M above market and they traded a D-man who (at best) has number 4 upside who was in and out of their lineup, whom they may have lost in expansion anyway (or may not have... which says something) and a conditional third.

That hardly seems like a huge loss on the Oilers part. And the extra $2M above market that they pay Keith is only an issue if it keeps them from acquiring other assets that actually want to sign in Edmonton. It's a long off-season... so let's see what else happens. Edmonton's biggest risk, which I think we all (secretly or openly) agree with is that if they don't do something to change the dynamic... and McD is on record about wanting vet help... then they will sour that relationship and lose one of the best players to ever play the game. If I'm Holland, that's my number one job (note it has has been reported that McDrai are elated to have Keith joining the team).

If I'm a Chicago fan I'm struggling to see why we didn't just keep our legend to teach the youth and retire in Blackhawks silk. Jones only moves the needle if his brother comes to join him (which I can only assume is an avenue that Holland did not think was possible in Edmonton... given it has been speculated in the media in the past).

 

[Taylorst]

Jones is a dime a dozen player. Every team has a guy like him, and they carry next to no value.

The downside for the Oilers is the cap used - not the assets they gave away.

They're not using the free cap they have but klef ltir cap . It's basically a wash. Those bad contracts edmonton past gm brought on board is the biggest issue , nobody is going to take those contracts unless edmonton is willing to give up plenty of assets.

 

[ManByng]

Jones is a dime a dozen player. Every team has a guy like him, and they carry next to no value.

The downside for the Oilers is the cap used - not the assets they gave away.

they apparently have a good amount of cap space to use so they are using some now!

 

[ManByng]

Oilers overpay in a trade. More news at 6.

ya it kinda seems like a Chia type trade doesn’t it? But overpay with Jones and a mid rounder? Naaa

 

[Sniper99]

Oilers overpay in a trade. More news at 6.

Caleb Jones and a 4th is an overpayment? LOL