Post-Game Talk: ECSF Gm 7 | FLYERS (H) vs. Islanders (A) | Sat., Sep. 5, 2020

[Flyerfan4life]

Im about 1000% positive Ghost will have another few 50 point seasons after he is traded.

yes, against the flyers..

you can bankit

 

[Fire Tortorella]

Even if they do, I don’t see a potential Giroux replacement there.

I'm only picking out one sentence of your quote, but my point on this is that unless you're picking in the top half of the 1st round, it's unlikely you'll find a prospect who is expected to be a "Giroux replacement". What it will take is a prospect (like Giroux, actually) who exceeds expectations.

Patrick is a giant question mark for multiple reasons. Not the same play style either.
Frost - most likely replacement since they play the same position, but will he reach that level?
Brink - can he match the offensive output of Giroux? He's a winger so not a like for like replacement.

 

[Magua]

Overall, lack of “finishing” is just something I never get bent out of shape about, unless it’s a talent deficiency. Teams play well and lose. The devil’s bargain you make in being a hockey fan is knowing the puck is witchcraft. I don’t think a player like Konecny could repeat this scoring performance, even with equally bad play. And we can say there were bad performances, at varying times.

But the Flyers played 13 real playoff games, and they finished with a score adjusted xGF% > 50% in 2/13. Against Montreal and the Islanders. That’s not shortchanging them on margin for error either. They were <45% in 9/13. That’s 5v5. They scored 4 goals and gave up 11 on special teams.

They played poor hockey. Not high variance: poor. Certain players played less poorly, some even flirted with playing well (namely the top players who can adhere to their own “system”). Lack of scoring was a symptom, not the disease.

 

[Garbage Goal]

I'm only picking out one sentence of your quote, but my point on this is that unless you're picking in the top half of the 1st round, it's unlikely you'll find a prospect who is expected to be a "Giroux replacement". What it will take is a prospect (like Giroux, actually) who exceeds expectations.

Patrick is a giant question mark for multiple reasons. Not the same play style either.
Frost - most likely replacement since they play the same position, but will he reach that level?
Brink - can he match the offensive output of Giroux? He's a winger so not a like for like replacement.

My point is more-so that our forward core is old and on the bad sides of aging curves while our D and G is young, creating quite the mismatch and we don't have any real game-breaking forward talent in the pipeline and haven't for a long time. In part due to them never being willing to commit to a full rebuild.

Giroux himself was picked like 23rd overall IIRC. So he, himself, is proof that they don't need to pick high to get a replacement for him. Regardless of whether it's via trade or drafting. They just need to be better than they have been, especially if they historically refuse to rebuild.

 

[Striiker]

Overall, lack of “finishing” is just something I never get bent out of shape about, unless it’s a talent deficiency. Teams play well and lose. The devil’s bargain you make in being a hockey fan is knowing the puck is witchcraft. I don’t think a player like Konecny could repeat this scoring performance, even with equally bad play. And we can say there were bad performances, at varying times.

But the Flyers played 13 real playoff games, and they finished with a score adjusted xGF% > 50% in 2/13. Against Montreal and the Islanders. That’s not shortchanging them on margin for error either. They were <45% in 9/13.

They played poor hockey. Certain players played less poorly, some even flirted with playing well (namely the top players who adhere to their own “system”). Lack of scoring was a symptom, not the disease.

That's what I said before too, but some don't want to hear that luck plays a part in this sport. They want to make absurd statements like "_____ is paid $_.__ million per year to score. No excuses".

For example, even if the most delusional Giroux critic is completely convinced that he played awful, they have to concede that he was horribly unlucky as far as goal scoring goes. He had 31 shots and a 3.23 shooting %. That's not a sustainable number, especially for a player who is a proven goal scorer in this league, with a career average somewhere around 10%. Not to mention hitting 6 posts.

Same thing for TK. He had 25 shots and didn't score on a single one. Even ignoring everything else he did right or wrong on the ice, that's bad luck. Even with as disappointing as he was, he deserved at least one goal.

 

[deadhead]

Overall, lack of “finishing” is just something I never get bent out of shape about, unless it’s a talent deficiency. Teams play well and lose. The devil’s bargain you make in being a hockey fan is knowing the puck is witchcraft. I don’t think a player like Konecny could repeat this scoring performance, even with equally bad play. And we can say there were bad performances, at varying times.

But the Flyers played 13 real playoff games, and they finished with a score adjusted xGF% > 50% in 2/13. Against Montreal and the Islanders. That’s not shortchanging them on margin for error either. They were <45% in 9/13. That’s 5v5. They scored 4 goals and gave up 11 on special teams.

They played poor hockey. Not high variance: poor. Certain players played less poorly, some even flirted with playing well (namely the top players who can adhere to their own “system”). Lack of scoring was a symptom, not the disease.

If we're just going on xGF (score and venue adjusted, of course):
Voracek 57.69%
Couts 51.91%

Laughton 48.57%
Raffl 48.54%
G 46.69%
NAK 46.58%
Hayes 44.24%

TK 40.67%
JVR 37.38%
Farabee 35.32%
Grant 34.60%
Pitlick 31.39%
Thompson 30.94%

Sure Grant and Thompson sucked, so did TK and Farabee, which is why I doubt Frost would have been an improvement, because he's certainly not as good as TK and Farabee right now. Note Hayes was much better than his linemates, maybe they were pulling him down?

Niskanen 47.44%
Provorov 46.15%

Ghost 42.16%
Braun 41.22%
Sanheim 39.84%
Hagg 38.98%
Myers 38.75%

 

[WolfOfBroadStreet14]

 

[JojoTheWhale]

No one knows if Frost is better than Farabee right now. I can’t think of a better example of defaulting to hierarchy than that.

 

[Stumble40]

I'm only picking out one sentence of your quote, but my point on this is that unless you're picking in the top half of the 1st round, it's unlikely you'll find a prospect who is expected to be a "Giroux replacement". What it will take is a prospect (like Giroux, actually) who exceeds expectations.

Patrick is a giant question mark for multiple reasons. Not the same play style either.
Frost - most likely replacement since they play the same position, but will he reach that level?
Brink - can he match the offensive output of Giroux? He's a winger so not a like for like replacement.

It’s time to take that next step where it’s ok to part with first round picks and prospects to compete now. Once you’ve made that decision there will be teams going nowhere ready to move players in their prime.

 

[Tripod]

No one knows if Frost is better than Farabee right now. I can’t think of a better example of defaulting to hierarchy than that.

What is really sad, is that there are people out there who deep down, won't want Frost to do well next year just so Mgt can be "right".

I hope he kicks ass so we can have a better team...that's what is important.

 

[Starat327]

No one knows if Frost is better than Farabee right now. I can’t think of a better example of defaulting to hierarchy than that.

Need something to fit a narrative to defend a coaches decision.

 

[Starat327]

Also, I gave it a day, and im pretty sure I could have written out how this thread would go.

You all did exceptionally well at keeping g to your narratives. A+ for consistency.

 

[Tripod]

It’s time to take that next step where it’s ok to part with first round picks and prospects to compete now. Once you’ve made that decision there will be teams going nowhere ready to move players in their prime.

Actually, I wouldn't this year due to the ED. Because in a perfect world, you don't waste 1st on rentals. You use them on guys with term.

 

[Chinatown88]

No one knows if Frost is better than Farabee right now. I can’t think of a better example of defaulting to hierarchy than that.

Fa comes before Fr. Therefore Parable is better than Frosty. Checkmate good sir.

 

[Striiker]

To be fair, Farabee and Frost took a hockey IQ test and it conclusively proved Farabee is a smarter player.

 

[Starat327]

To be fair, Farabee and Frost took a hockey IQ test and it conclusively proved Farabee is a smarter player.

Well, duh.. How else would we able to definitively say that hes smarter?

 

[deadhead]

No one knows if Frost is better than Farabee right now. I can’t think of a better example of defaulting to hierarchy than that.

I saw them both play in the NHL and in the AHL, I don't think there's even a question until Frost adds some strength.
Farabee is clearly the smarter player (saw that as early as the WJC-20) and improved by leaps and bounds after January.
Frost has more raw skill, but I didn't see him flash it that often, even in the AHL where he should have been a "man among boys."

 

[deadhead]

Well, duh.. How else would we able to definitively say that hes smarter?

By watching them?
Why does the puck seem to find certain players more than others?
Because they anticipate well and are in the right position to make things happen.

 

[deadhead]

What is really sad, is that there are people out there who deep down, won't want Frost to do well next year just so Mgt can be "right".

I hope he kicks ass so we can have a better team...that's what is important.

I'd love to see Frost do well, it would solve a bunch of problems.
But if wishes were wings, we'd all fly.

 

[Appleyard]

I think Frost is just as smart a 200ft player as Farabee. Both are high IQ guys.

He is just at C. Which is harder to play over 2ooft. Have double the responsibility.

 

[Striiker]

Well, duh.. How else would we able to definitively say that hes smarter?

By talking out of our ass?

 

[Flyer lurker]

I would be hesitant in saying Patrick will remain healthy or for very long. Wouldn’t be surprising to see a recurrence there.

Either way, the biggest impact players there are Myers and Hart. Maybe Patrick if everything goes well in terms of injury and development.

The worrisome thing for me, in terms of roster construction, is the same problem they’ve faced ever since they dealt away Carter/Richards. They essentially have two cores here. A long-term one that’s still wait-and-see to some extent and a short-term one pushing into their 30’s that hasn’t gone the distance yet. The underlying problem there being that most of our forward group is in their declining years and on the 30+ side. Most of our impact youth is in the net out short of Frost, Patrick, and Farabee all taking big strides in the near future. Even if they do, I don’t see a potential Giroux replacement there.

If you look at the last 8 teams and I asked who is Batman on their non goalies and you can do it pretty easy. Mackinnon COL Barzal NYL Kucherov/Point TBL. Who is Flyers Batman? Is Giroux still Batman? Before the haters come out I am not saying he is not still a very very very good player. Giroux/V line was second best in the series. But Barzal line was first.

To win you will everything else in place to go perfect. You need 4 lines that can contribute not 2.5. You need at least 5d and not 3.

 

[JojoTheWhale]

I saw them both play in the NHL and in the AHL, I don't think there's even a question until Frost adds some strength.
Farabee is clearly the smarter player (saw that as early as the WJC-20) and improved by leaps and bounds after January.
Frost has more raw skill, but I didn't see him flash it that often, even in the AHL where he should have been a "man among boys."

Loving the sample sizes here — WJC and 5 AHL Games.

I keep hearing how smart Farabee is as he’s blasted with one massive hit after another he either doesn’t see coming or thinks is worth taking. You would tear Frost to shreds over that. Correctly so, I might add.

I am not suprised you classified January forward as a big Farabee improvement. Take a look at the 4th chart down, “Smoothed 5v5 Goals Per Shot.”

A two-way Shooting heater that happened to coincide with being put on a line with Couturier/Voracek then Konecny/Hayes while the team was on a roll. Not a mystery.

 

[Starat327]

By watching them?
Why does the puck seem to find certain players more than others?
Because they anticipate well and are in the right position to make things happen.

Its hard to find the puck when you arent put on the ice in favor of inferior players.

 

[Starat327]

Loving the sample sizes here — WJC and 5 AHL Games.

I keep hearing how smart Farabee is as he’s blasted with one massive hit after another he either doesn’t see coming or thinks is worth taking. You would tear Frost to shreds over that. Correctly so, I might add.

I am not suprised you classified January forward as a big Farabee improvement. Take a look at the 4th chart down, “Smoothed 5v5 Goals Per Shot.”

A two-way Shooting heater that happened to coincide with being put on a line with Couturier/Voracek then Konecny/Hayes while the team was on a roll. Not a mystery.

Yeah, well. I watched them, ya StatNerd.